asia’s youth population: trends and issues products and... · escap region1: major demographic...
TRANSCRIPT
Asia’s Youth Population:
Trends and Issues
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow
Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and
Migration Research Centre
The University of Adelaide
Presentation to Year 12 Geography Night, University of Adelaide
22nd August 2013
Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• Changing Numbers of Youth Population
• The Outlook for Growth
• Economic Implications
• Characteristics of the New Youth
Generation
• Mobility
• Social and Educational Participation
• Implications
• Conclusion
Asian Youth
• Largest ever generation of youth
• First with access to universal
education
• First to grow up with modern media
and communication
• First growing up in globalisation era
Diversity in Asia
• Massive variation within and between countries
• 57.7 percent of world’s population
• Range in size – 300,000 – 1.3 billion
• GDP per capita US$1,027 – US$25,130
• Variation in proportion of their population in youth age groups
Massive Demographic Change Which Has Impinged
Upon Youth
• Fertility reduction
• Mortality reduction
• Influenced age structure
ESCAP Region1: Major Demographic Changes, 1970-2011Source: UNESCAP, 1984, 2011
Demographic Variable 1970 2011
Percent
Change
1970-2011
Total Population (m) 2,041 3,998 +95.9
Percent of World Population 55.2 57.2 +3.6
Annual Growth Rate3 2.2 0.9 -59.1
Percent Urban3 24 43 +79.2
Percent Aged 0-143 40 25 -37.5
Percent Aged 65+3 4 7 +75.0
Dependency Ratio3 80 47 -41.3
Total Fertility Rate2,3 5.4 2.1 -99.6
Expectancy of Life at Birth – Males3
52 68 +30.8
Expectancy of Life at Birth – Females3
54 72 +33.3
1 The data exclude the countries of Central Asia which were not part of the ESCAP region in 1970 and 1980.
2 TFR and Life Expectancies refer to the average of the five years prior to 1970. 3 Includes Central Asia in 2011.
Largest NationsSource: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision
Nation 2010 2020
China 1,359,821 1,432,868
India 1,205,625 1,353,305
Indonesia 240,676 269,413
Pakistan 173,149 203,351
Bangladesh 151,125 169,566
Japan 127,353 125,382
000
FERTILITY CHANGE IN ESCAP
TFR
1950-55 5.9
1960-65 5.6
1970-75 5.1
1980-85 3.7
1990-95 2.8
2000 2.4
2003 2.4
2012 2.1
PERCENT IN URBAN AREAS:ESCAP REGION
1950 14.8
1960 17.6
1970 20.4
1980 24.3
1990 30.3
2000 36.9
2003 40.0
2012 45.9
2030 53.0
CHANGES IN THE FAMILY IN ASIA
• Increased family nucleation
• Fertility decline – reduced size of families
• Breakdown of extended family social networks
• Reduced patriarchal control
• Change in women’s status and roles
• Changing intergenerational relationships
• Reduced significance as the unit of production
Asia: Age-Sex Structure of Current and Projected Population, 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050
Source: United Nations 2013
200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79
80+
Number of Persons ('000)
Ag
e G
rou
p
2010
Males Females
200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-4950-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Number of Persons ('000)
Ag
e G
rou
p
2020
Males Females
200,000150,000100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000150,000200,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79
80+
Number of Persons ('000)
Ag
e G
rou
p
2030
Males Female
200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79
80+
Number of Persons ('000)
Ag
e G
rou
p
2040
Males Females
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79
80+
Number of Persons ('000)
Ag
e G
rou
p
2050
Males Females
The Asian Youth BulgeAsian Population Aged 15-24, 1960-2010 and
Projected 2020 and 2040 Source: United Nations, 2013
Annual Percentage Growth
Year Number ('000) Percent Per Annum
1960 282,148 17.32
1980 494,387 19.61 2.84
1985 567,840 20.45 2.81
1990 614,391 20.05 1.59
2000 636,293 18.01 0.35
2010 718,194 18.26 1.22
2020 644,330 14.96 -0.54
2040 634,014 13.39 -0.08
Population Aged 15-24
Selected Asian Countries: Proportion of the Population Aged 15-24,1950-2000 (Actual) 2010-2040 (Projected)
Source: United Nations, 2003
Asia
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
perc
ent
Indonesia21.0
22.0
Republic of Korea
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
pe
rcen
t
India20
21
Japan
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
pe
rce
nt
Asia Regions
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
perc
en
t
East
South
South-east
Selected Asian Countries: Proportion of the Population Aged 15-24,1950-2000 (Actual) 2010-2040 (Projected) (Cont.)
Source: United Nations, 2003
Indonesia
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
pe
rce
nt
10
12
14
16
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
pe
rce
India
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
pe
rce
nt
Laos
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
perc
ent
East Timor
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
pe
rce
nt
8
10
12
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
pe
rc
Viet Nam: Projections of Adolescents andYouth Population, 1999-2024
Source: Haub and Huong, p. 12
MIL
LIO
NS
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Share of Population in Working Ages by World Region, Actual 1950-2005 and Projected 2010-2050
Source: United Nations 2007
0.50
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.70
195
0
195
5
196
0
196
5
197
0
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
201
5
202
0
202
5
203
0
203
5
204
0
204
5
205
0
Sh
are
of
Po
pu
lati
on
Year
Africa Asia
Europe Latin America and Caribbean
North America Oceania
The “Demographic Dividend”
The tendency for the working age
population to grow more rapidly
than the overall population once
Fertility has begun to decline.
The Youth Bulge in Asia
• Peaking of numbers
• Peaking of percentage of total
population
• Varies between countries
• Major role in economic productivity
The Declining Importance of the Youth Population in Asia: 2002 to 2022
Source: Asian Demographics Ltd, 9 August 2003
Significant Changes in the Age Profile of Thailand’s Population: 2003 to 2023
Source: Asian Demographics Ltd, 1 November 2003
The Fuller Youth Bulge
• The youth bulge is associated
with political unrest
• May be at national or sub
national levels
• The Arab Spring
• Concentration in Large Cities
Economic Impacts of Globalisation on Youth
• Shift in distribution of job opportunities
• Effects on education – First generation
of universal education
• More effect on youth than other groups
• Winners and losers
Job Opportunities
• Changing political context (eg China, Vietnam)
• Opening of economies
• Offshoring of manufacturing
• Urban-based opportunities
• Gender dimension
• Higher mobility
• Effects of education
Negative Effects
• Destruction of traditional protectionsystems
• Work conditions
• Lack of security
• Decline in rural areas
• The Asian Crisis effects
• High unemployment
Regional Estimates for Youth Unemployment, 1995-2005
Source: Morris 2006, p. 7
Unemployment Rates for Youth, Adults and Total,
Thailand, 1990-2004 (Percentages)Source: Morris 2006, p. 9
Philippines(Rixhon, 2004, 60)
• Skill mismatches
• Financial constraints on technical institutions
• Limited access to technical education
• Unfair terms of employment
• Attitudinal shortcomings
• Lack of effectiveness of government in
dealing with youth unemployment
Each year 800,000 young entrants to the
workforce not able to be absorbed.
Vulnerable Workplaces for Young Women
• Factories
• ‘Entertainment’ Industry
• Domestic Work
Educational Participation
• Universal Access to Education in Most
Countries
• Issues of Quality, Resources
• Inequality in Access
• Mismatches with Skills Needed in Job
Market
• Can be a Barrier to Enjoying Benefits of
Globalisation
• Gender Dimensions
Indonesia: Disparity of Access to Education
Source:UNESCO 2006, p.44
Number of Tertiary Students Worldwide, 1991 and 2004 (millions)
Source: UNESCO 2006, p. 21
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1991 2004
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Te
rtia
ry S
tud
en
ts (
in m
illi
on
s)
Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Arab States
Latin America and Caribbean
South and West Asia
Central and Eastern Europe
North America and Western Europe
East Asia and the Pacific
The Digital Divide
• Differential Access to New
Communication and Information
Technology
• Barrier to Access to Labour Market
• Barrier to Knowledge, Awareness
• Barrier to Global Involvement
Mobile Phone and Internet Use, 2011Source: World Bank online data, http://data.worldbank.org/topic/infrastructure
(per 100 people)
Region Cellular subscribers Internet users
Least Developed Countries 42 6
East Asia and the Pacific 84 39
South Asia 69 9
High Income 122 73
World 85 33
Social Participation
• Key period of lifecycle socially
• Spread of western cultural practices
• Exposure to different ways of doing things
• Challenge to traditional authority structures
• Separation from family
• Clashes in values
Increase in Risky Health Related Behaviour
• Limited access to information
regarding the risks of sexual activity
and contraception
• Peer pressure
• Inadequate access to youth-friendly
health services
• Economic constraints
Indonesia: Age Structure of the Population Reported with HIV Infection, November 2000
Source: Directorate General CDC and EH Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia, 2001
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
Age
Nu
mb
er
Suicide Mortality of Young Adults Aged 15-24 in Selected Countries and Areas
Source: Ruzicka 1998
Suicides per 100,000 Male to
Country/area in ESCAP Region Year Males Females Female Ratio
Bangladesh 1980-1996 9.3 19.6 0.5
China (rural) 1992 17.4 36.7 0.5
China (urban) 1992 5.6 10.6 0.5
Hong Kong 1994 9.5 8.7 1.1
Singapore 1994 11.7 10.2 1.1
Sri Lanka 1986 77.0 48.0 1.6
Republic of Korea 1994 11.0 5.9 1.9
Japan 1994 12.0 5.1 2.4
Australia 1990-1992 26.0 5.0 5.0
New Zealand 1990-1993 39.0 6.0 6.0
Highest suicide rates in countries of Europe:
Russian Federation 1994 49.0 9.0 5.0
Lithuania 1994 46.0 12.0 4.0
Finland 1994 46.0 8.0 6.0
Latvia 1994 40.0 4.0 10.0
Estonia 1994 38.0 10.0 4.0
Family Participation Issues
• Basic unit of social organisation
• Movement from extended family model
to nuclear family
• Intergenerational clashes
• Challenges to traditional authority
clashes
Asian Countries: Actual and Projected Population Aged 20-34 Years
(in Thousands), 1990-2020Source: United Nations Projections
Year Males Females Total Percent Growth
Asia 1990 374,124 350,788 724,912 2000 427,133 403,832 830,965 14.6 2010 456,755 428,718 885,473 6.5 2020 493,429 461,284 954,713 7.8 East Asia 1990 172,834 165,470 338,304 2000 187,805 178,627 366,432 8.3 2010 171,729 159,346 331,075 -9.6 2020 171,069 155,972 327,041 -1.2 South-Central Asia 1990 141,940 129,454 271,394 2000 171,087 157,341 328,428 21.0 2010 207,132 192,530 399,662 21.7 2020 240,515 225,098 465,613 16.5 Southeast Asia 1990 56,349 55,863 112,212 2000 68,241 67,866 136,107 21.3 2010 77,895 76,842 154,737 13.7 2020 81,847 80,212 162,059 4.7
Emerging Gender Imbalances Among Youth
Emerging Issues
• China’s bare branches – 20 million in
2021
• Also influencing Taiwan, Korea,
Singapore
• Significant number of young men who
will never be able to form a family
• Concentrated on young men who are
poor and in rural areas
Participation in Mobility
• New mobility paradigm in Asia, internal
and international
• Increase in scale and complexity of
mobility
• Youth are disproportionately participants
• Opened up new opportunities as well as
potential for exploitation
• Important gender dimension
Indonesia: Proportion of Recent Migrants By Age and Sex, 1990 to 1995
Source: Muhidin 2002
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
0 -
4
5 -
9
10 -
14
15 -
19
20 -
24
25 -
29
30 -
34
35 -
39
40 -
44
45 -
49
50 -
54
55 -
59
60 -
64
65 -
69
70 -
74
75 -
79
80 -
84
85+
AGE AT CENSUS/SURVEY
PR
OP
OR
TIO
N
Females
Males
Main Forms ofInternational Mobility
• South-north migration
• Skilled migration
• Contract labour migration
• Student migration
• Marriage migration
• Increased intra regional movement
Increased Focus on Youth in South-North Migration
• Increased Focus on Skill
• Inclusion of Age in Migration Selection
Criteria
• Connection with Student Migration
• Increasing Significance of Marriage
Migration
Overseas Students in Australian Universities, 1983-2011Source: DEEWR Students: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
Nu
mb
er
Year
Overseas Students from Southern and Central Asia
Overseas Students from Northeast Asia
Overseas Students from Southeast Asia
Other Overseas Students
Total Overseas Students (1983-90)
Student Tourism WorkMarriage
Commodified
Marriage
Conventional
ENTRY TO DESTINATION
Conceptualizing Marriage
Migration
Increasing Marriage Migration
• Increased mobility of youth – leading to
increased international marriage/partnership
• Increasing shortages of women in some
countries and regions
• Cultural changes in the role of women
• The marriage migration industry
• Changing previously ‘homogeneous’ Asian
societies
Taiwan
• 32.2 percent of all marriages are to foreigners
• 13.4 percent of births are to foreign women
• 100,000 from Vietnam
Positive Effects
• Expansion of opportunities
• Increased independence and experience
• Remittances effects
• Diaspora and development
• Central role of youth
Negative Effects
• Vulnerability to exploitation and
abuse of human rights
• Exposure to disease
• Separation from family
• Loss of human capital
Conclusion
• Era of massive social, economic, demographic
and cultural transformation
• Key impact of globalisation
• Bridging generation between old and the new
• Winners and losers
• Need for youth sensitivity in policy
• Importance of security - personal, economic and
social
• Danger of being overlooked