INDIA

Basic Facts and Policy ImplicationsThe South Asian countries are very much inefficient in energy use.•South Asian region has 23per cent of the world population with only 2.1per cent of the world GDP and Gross National Income of South Asian countries excepting Maldives was estimated as US$ 524, which was only 10per cent of world average income of US$ 5,240 in 2003.•Economies of South Asian countries are showing remarkable GDP growth during the recovery from global meltdown.•It is estimated that the energy demand will grow with the economic growth almost at equal rate.China and India alone are consuming almost quarter of the oil production of the world, although the population of these two countries is more than one-third of the world.•All the countries of South Asia are very much concerned about the energy situation because of miss-match between the demand and supply situation.•More than 50per cent of the people of South Asia do not have access to commercial energy, particularly, electricity which is regarded as the harbinger of modern economic development.•Issue of energy security in different countries of South Asia is being looked at from the country perspective.• Integrated energy planning approach needs to be institutionalised in all countries of South Asia to ensure energy security of each country.•South Asian countries must go for cleaner energy for meeting their future energy demand and ensuring long term energy security.• In the event of sky rocketing increase in crude oil price, South Asian countries should take appropriate measures to reduce the demand for liquid fuel.•South Asian countries have abundant potential for harnessing renewable energy and all of them must go for harnessing future energy demand from renewable sources.• If the issue of energy security can be considered from inter and intra-regional perspective, then solution to the problem of future energy security becomes much easier to accelerate the pace of economic development to change the fate of teeming millions of South Asia 

Basic Facts:Basic Facts: China, the world’s largest energy consumer, has a tendency to make a splash when it enters global energy markets.China, the world’s largest energy consumer, has a tendency to make a splash when it enters global energy markets.

In oil markets, crude prices rose along with China’s import volumes in the early 2000s, after the country became a In oil markets, crude prices rose along with China’s import volumes in the early 2000s, after the country became a net importer of oil in 1993.net importer of oil in 1993.

In coal markets, its shift to being a net importer of thermal coal in 2009 pushed prices to their current record highs.In coal markets, its shift to being a net importer of thermal coal in 2009 pushed prices to their current record highs.

According analysts , the country may soon have the same effect on natural gas.According analysts , the country may soon have the same effect on natural gas.

The government plans to promote natural gas consumption because it is cleaner- burning than oil or coal.The government plans to promote natural gas consumption because it is cleaner- burning than oil or coal.

Under Beijing’s blueprint, gas use will more than double during the next five years to reach 260bn cu m, making Under Beijing’s blueprint, gas use will more than double during the next five years to reach 260bn cu m, making China the world’s third largest gas market after Russia and the US.China the world’s third largest gas market after Russia and the US.

1. One trend: Soon No 11. One trend: Soon No 1

2. Two Challenges: 2. Two Challenges:

1) Heavy reliance on coal1) Heavy reliance on coal

2) High dependence on oil2) High dependence on oil

3. Three Strategies 3. Three Strategies

1) decarbonization1) decarbonization

2) Diversify oil supply2) Diversify oil supply

3) Secure oil transportation 3) Secure oil transportation

China Crude Oil Import by Source (Thousand Barrels per day, 2008 total 3568 )China Crude Oil Import by Source (Thousand Barrels per day, 2008 total 3568 )

Energy demand in India will be about 4.36per cent and demand for electricity will grow by about 8per cent per annum till 2020.

Diversifying supplyDiversifying supply

Improved demand-side managementImproved demand-side management

Increased focus on nuclear, renewable & natural gasIncreased focus on nuclear, renewable & natural gas

Restructuring the energy sectorRestructuring the energy sector

Securing technology transfer & fuel supply abroadSecuring technology transfer & fuel supply abroad

Equitable sharing of benefitsEquitable sharing of benefits

Military – internal security & stability, deterrent to Military – internal security & stability, deterrent to aggression from neighborsaggression from neighbors

Navy – securing supply routesNavy – securing supply routes

In Pakistan, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at a rate of 3.72per cent and demand for electricity will grow by 8per cent per annum till 2020.

Projected Energy Deficits

(Million TOE)

2006 2015 2025

Total Indigenous Supply 42 61 75Total Energy Energy Requirement 58 110 198

Deficit 16 50 122Deficit as % of Energy Requirement 28 45 62

Small Island NationSmall Island Nation

1190 islands, 200 inhabited, 90 resorts1190 islands, 200 inhabited, 90 resorts

Tourism drives 28% of GDPTourism drives 28% of GDP

Average altitude of 1.5m, highest point 2.3mAverage altitude of 1.5m, highest point 2.3m

Energy SupplyEnergy Supply

No proven oil, natural gas, or coal reservesNo proven oil, natural gas, or coal reserves

100% imported diesel fuel and biomass100% imported diesel fuel and biomass

Major consuming nations Major consuming nations

China will become No 1 soon after 2010China will become No 1 soon after 2010

India currently No 5, will become No 3 by 2030India currently No 5, will become No 3 by 2030

Heavy dependence on oil importsHeavy dependence on oil imports

China’s and India’s net oil imports are expected to grow China’s and India’s net oil imports are expected to grow three times more than current USA and Japan importsthree times more than current USA and Japan imports

-> Major impact on world oil supply and prices-> Major impact on world oil supply and prices

Dependence on fossil fuelsDependence on fossil fuels

Most energy currently generated from fossil fuels, Most energy currently generated from fossil fuels, particularly coalparticularly coal

ChinaChina US, India relationsUS, India relations Per capita equityPer capita equity

IndiaIndia Leading developing nationsLeading developing nations Nuclear technology transferNuclear technology transfer

MaldivesMaldives Demanding cuts by developed countriesDemanding cuts by developed countries

PakistanPakistan Coal technology transfer (CCS, etc)Coal technology transfer (CCS, etc)

CompetitionCompetition China and India - competing for equity oil China and India - competing for equity oil

stakes around the world, driving prices up stakes around the world, driving prices up

Competition in Myanmar, Nepal, BhutanCompetition in Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan

CooperationCooperation Pakistan + India / China - Pipelines Pakistan + India / China - Pipelines

Security - Terrorism, secure oil routesSecurity - Terrorism, secure oil routes

Security / military tensions need to be resolved first Security / military tensions need to be resolved first before any real cooperationbefore any real cooperation

Energy interdependence can help foster warmer tiesEnergy interdependence can help foster warmer ties

Technology transfer can help reduce emissionsTechnology transfer can help reduce emissions

Iran / Afghanistan situation has huge implications Iran / Afghanistan situation has huge implications for energy supply to Pakistan, India & Chinafor energy supply to Pakistan, India & China

China & India are big players in China & India are big players in global climate change policy global climate change policy Aligned strategyAligned strategy

Demanding cuts by developed countriesDemanding cuts by developed countries

Asking for technology transfer (CCS, etc)Asking for technology transfer (CCS, etc)

Smaller countries vulnerable to sea Smaller countries vulnerable to sea level rise – Bangladesh, Maldives, etclevel rise – Bangladesh, Maldives, etc

CompetitionCompetition China and India - competing for equity oil China and India - competing for equity oil

stakes around the world, driving prices up stakes around the world, driving prices up

Competition in Myanmar, Nepal, BhutanCompetition in Myanmar, Nepal, Bhutan

CooperationCooperation Pakistan + India / China - Pipelines Pakistan + India / China - Pipelines

Security - Terrorism, secure oil routesSecurity - Terrorism, secure oil routes

Security / military tensions need to be resolved first Security / military tensions need to be resolved first before any real cooperationbefore any real cooperation

Energy interdependence can help foster warmer tiesEnergy interdependence can help foster warmer ties

Technology transfer can help reduce emissionsTechnology transfer can help reduce emissions

Iran / Afghanistan situation has huge implications Iran / Afghanistan situation has huge implications for energy supply to Pakistan, India & Chinafor energy supply to Pakistan, India & China