asia pacific in focus - infineum insight – for the fuel and lubricant … · 2015-07-17 ·...

© INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2015. All rights reserved.

INFINEUM CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

Asia Pacific in Focus



Asia Pacific Lubricants Market Overview

Asia Pacific

44%

North America

23%

South America

8%

Europe 16%

Africa, Middle East

9%

World Lubricant Demand by Region in 2014 (40 MMT)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2014 2018 2023

Mill

ion

to

nn

es North America

South AmericaAsia PacificAfrica & Middle EastEurope

Lubricant Demand by region from 2014 to 2023

• Asia Pacific has become the biggest lubricant since 2005. • At a CAGR of 2%, it will continue to strengthen its position as a major

lubricant market, as other regions are at low growth or slight decline

Source: Kline 2015 LubesNet Database



Asia Pacific – Diversity in Terrain & Economic Development

Diverse landscape with countries at varying stages of economic development, ranging from

Fast-rising economic giants

Industrialized & prosperous economies

Emerging markets

Several impoverished countries



Motorization Rate



Asia Pacific Lubricants Market by Country

China 45%

India 13%

Japan 9%

South Korea

5%

Indonesia 5%

Thailand 4%

Australia, 3%

Taiwan, 2%

Pakistan, 2%

Vietnam, 2%

Malaysia, 1%

Philippines, 1%

Others 7%

AP Finished Lubricant Consumption by Country 2014 (17.7 million tonnes)

Source: Kline 2015 LubesNet Database



AP OEM Profile – 2014 Sales

k

500 k

1000 k

1500 k

2000 k

2500 k

3000 k

3500 k

4000 k

4500 k

5000 k

Source: Marklines Database



AP OEM Profile – 2014 Sales

k

500 k

1000 k

1500 k

2000 k

2500 k

3000 k

3500 k

4000 k

4500 k

Passenger Vehicles

k

100 k

200 k

300 k

400 k

500 k

600 k

700 k

800 k

900 k

Commercial Vehicles

Source: Marklines Database



Asia, 79% North America

1%

Latin America, 17%

Europe, 3%

Motorcycle Sales by Region, 2014

Asia accounts for 90% of global production & 80% of global sales

predominantly 4-stroke with tightening emission requirements

Stronghold for Motorcycle Sales

Source: Marklines, Yamaha

Global motorcycle sales registered CAGR of 2.5 % over the last 5 years

Asia & Latin America registered growth of 2% & 7% respectively, offsetting the decline in Europe & North America

India, 36%

China, 24%

Indonesia, 17%

Others (Asia), 10%

Vietnam, 6%

Thailand, 4%

Taiwan, 2% Japan, 1%

Motorcycle Sales in Asia, 2014 by country

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015FC

Motorcycle Sales by Region (2010 to 2015 Forecast, million units)

Asia Latin AmericaEurope North America

Performance you can rely on 10 © INFINEUM INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2015. All rights reserved. Proprietary to Infineum.

Asia Pacific Sales Trend By Countries

India motorcycle sales exceed that of China from 2012 to become the global leading motorcycle market At a CAGR of 7% in the last 3 years, the Indian market is also the fastest growing market

Significant reduction in sales in Indonesia in 2012 is due to restriction of loans, but demand rebounded from 2013 & 2014 This signifies a continued strong domestic market

The Thailand market has contracted since 2013 due to political instability

Source: Marklines, Yamaha

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015FC

Motorcycle Sales by AP countries (2010 to 2015 Forecast, million units)

India China Indonesia

Others in Asia Vietnam Thailand

Taiwan Japan



Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Euro 5 (Plan) Euro 6 (Plan)

Euro 6 (Plan)

Heavy-duty Euro V/ US07/ JP05 Euro VI (Plan)

Nationwide Euro I Euro 2 Euro 3 (Plan)

Dhaka Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 (Plan)

Chittagong Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 (Plan)

Nationwide Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 (Plan)

Dhaka Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 (Plan)

Chittagong Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 (Plan)

Gasoline CN 4/ Euro 4 CN 5/ Euro 5 (Plan) CN 6/ Euro 6 (Plan)

Diesel CN 3/ Euro 3 CN 4/ Euro 4 CN 5/ Euro 5 (Plan) CN 6/ Euro 6 (Plan)

Gasoline CN 5/ Euro 5 CN6/ Euro 6 (Plan)

Diesel CN 5/ Euro 5 is not mandatory for light duty diesel trucks & vans, but the licenses are severe restrictedCN 6/ Euro 6 (Plan)

Gasoline CN 4/ Euro 4 CN6/ Euro 6 (Plan)

Diesel CN 4/ Euro 4 C N 5/ Euro 5 is no t mandat ory f o r l ight dut y d iesel t rucks & vans, but t he l icenses are severe rest r ict edCN 6/ Euro 6 (Plan)

CN 3/ Euro III CN 4/ Euro CN 5/ Euro V (Plan) CN6/ Euro VI (Plan)

CN 5 / Euro V CN6/ Euro VI (Plan)

CN 4/ Euro IV CN6/ Euro VI (Plan)

Motorcycles China 3

Gasoline Euro 3 (Bharat stage 3) Euro 4 (Bharat stage 4) (Plan) Bharat 6 (Plan)

Diesel Euro 3 (Bharat stage 3) Euro 4 (Bharat stage 4) (Plan) Bharat 6 (Plan)

Gasoline Euro 4 (Bharat stage 4) Bharat 6 (Plan)

Diesel Euro 4 (Bharat stage 4) Bharat 6 (Plan)

Gasoline Euro 3 (Bharat stage 3) Euro 4 (Bharat stage 4) Bharat 6 (Plan)

Diesel Euro 3 (Bharat stage 3) Euro 4 (Bharat stage 4) Bharat 6 (Plan)





Euro III Euro IV Bharat VI (Plan)

Euro IV Bharat VI (Plan)

Euro III Euro IV Bharat VI (Plan)

Euro III Euro IVBharat VI (Plan)

Euro III Euro IVBharat VI (Plan)

Motorcycles Euro 3 (Bharat stage 3) Euro 4 (Bharat stage 4) (Plan)

Euro 5

Shanghai

13 cities

Nationwide

Nationwide

Shanghai

Light-duty Diesel

Light-duty 29 cities

North India

&

Western

India &

Asia Pacific Emission Standards - Compiled from public sources to best of knowledge

Euro 4

Nationwide

13 cities

Nationwide

Australia

Light-duty

Heavy-duty

Gasoline

Diesel

Diesel

Beijing

Beijing

Light-duty

Gasoline

India

China

Gasoline

CN 5/ Euro 5

CN 5/ Euro V (for public

Bangladash

Motorcycles Gasoline

Heavy-duty29 cities

North India & Rajasthan

(9 States)Western India & parts of

South and East India (10



Country 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Euro 2 Euro 4 (Plan) Euro 4 (Plan)

Euro 2 Euro 4 (Plan) Euro 4 (Plan)

Heavy-duty Euro II

Motorcycles Euro 3 Bharat IV (Plan) Euro 4 (Plan)

Post New Long-term

Post New Long-term

Heavy-duty Post New Long-term

Euro M2 Euro 4M Euro 4M RON 95 Euro 5M (Plan)

Euro M2 Euro 5M (Plan) Euro 5 (Plan)

Heavy-duty Euro I Euro IV (Plan)

Euro 4/ JP05/ US04

Euro 4/ JP05/ US04

Heavy-duty Euro V/ JP05/ US07

Light-duty Euro 1 Euro 2 (Plan)

Motorcycles Pak 2/ Euro 2

Euro 2 Euro 4

Euro 2 Euro 4

Heavy-duty Euro III Euro 4

Motorcycles Euro 2 Euro 3

Euro 2 Euro 6

Euro 4 Euro 6

Heavy-duty Euro IV Euro V Euro VI

Motorcycles Euro 2 Euro 3

Euro 5

Euro 5

Heavy-duty Euro V

Motorcycles Euro 3

Euro 4

Euro 4

Heavy-duty Euro IV

Motorcycles Euro 3

Euro 2 Euro 5 (Plan)

Euro 2 Euro 5 (Plan)

Heavy-duty Euro II Euro V (Plan)

Motorcycles Euro 1 Euro 2 (Application pending) Euro 3 (Plan)

Euro IV (Plan)

Euro 4 (Plan)

Gasoline

Euro 4

Euro 6

Euro VI

Diesel

Gasoline

Diesel

Gasoline

Euro 6

Euro 5

Euro 4 (Plan)

Gasoline

Diesel

Asia Pacific Emission Standards - Compiled from public sources to best of knowledge

DieselMalaysia

Japan

Light-duty

Light-duty

Diesel

Diesel

Gasoline

Light-duty

Gasoline

Euro IV (Plan)

Gasoline

Gasoline

Vietnam

Philippines

Gasoline

South Korea

Gasoline

PakistanGasoline

Light-duty

Gasoline

Diesel

Singapore

Thailand

Diesel

Light-duty

Light-duty

Diesel

Light-duty

Gasoline

Light-duty

Light-dutyGasoline

New Zealand Diesel

Gasoline

Indonesia

Gasoline



Asia Pacific Automotive Lubricants Market

• Basestocks

• Major Gp II & Gp III supply, Gp I limited to localized captive use

• Market Segments

• Significant Motorcycle & Marine markets relative to ROW

• Light duty diesel dominates as workhorse of thriving economies, often under high severity of overloading, poor road infrastructure & dusty/humid environments

• Specifications

• Fragmentation

• Advanced economies adopt latest specification

• Older & obsolete prevail for emerging markets

• PCMO typically higher in quality as a consumer market & driven by rapid growth of Japanese OEMs

• Melting pot of both API, ACEA & OEM specifications

• Oil Marketers

• Strong presence of state-own enterprises for lesser liberalized economies



Permission is given for storage of one copy in electronic means for reference purposes. Further reproduction of any material is prohibited without prior written consent of Infineum International Limited. The information contained in this document is based upon data believed to be reliable at the time of going to press and relates only to the matters specifically mentioned in this document. Although Infineum has used reasonable skill and care in the preparation of this information, in the absence of any overriding obligations arising under a specific contract, no representation, warranty (express or implied), or guarantee is made as to the suitability, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information; nothing in this document shall reduce the user’s responsibility to satisfy itself as to the suitability, accuracy, reliability, and completeness of such information for its particular use; there is no warranty against intellectual property infringement; and Infineum shall not be liable for any loss, damage or injury that may occur from the use of this information other than death or personal injury caused by its negligence. No statement shall be construed as an endorsement of any product or process. For greater certainty, before use of information contained in this document, particularly if the product is used for a purpose or under conditions which are abnormal or not reasonably foreseeable, this information must be reviewed with the supplier of such information. INFINEUM, PARATAC, SYNACTO, VISTONE and the interlocking ripple device are Trade Marks of Infineum International Limited. © Infineum International Limited 2015. All rights reserved

asia pacific in focus - infineum insight – for the fuel and lubricant … · 2015-07-17 ·...

Documents