Global Change Adaptation and Green Economy

Prof. Dr. Kedar Lal Shrestha

Institute for Development and Innovation

Nepal

Presentation at

Youth Capacity Building Workshop on Green Economy

Goodwill Hotel

Lalitpur, Nepal

25th – 29th September 2012

Outline

1. Introduction • Brown Economic Growth and Global Change • Sustainable Development & Human Well-being • Shift in Economic Paradigms and Green Economy

2. Planning Adaptation Approaches • Science-driven Approach vs. Society Need-based Approach • New Progress in Science-driven Approaches • Development of Science Based Decision Support Tools

3. Himalaya: The Asian Water Tower • Cryospheric Changes • Hydrological Impacts • Water Resource Governance

Brown Economy Over the last quarter of a century, the world economy has quadrupled

In contrast, however, 60% of the world’s major ecosystem goods and services that underpin livelihoods have been degraded or used unsustainably

This is because the economic growth of recent decades has been mainly through drawing down natural resources, without allowing stocks to regenerate, and

Through allowing widespread ecosystem degradation and loss.

What is Global Change?

• Atmosphere composition

• Temperature

• Population

• Forest cover

• Biodiversity…

Nitrogen fixation

……..

• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System

• Much more than climate change

• Socio-economic as well as biophysical

For example, changes in:

NOAA

U.S

. Bu

rea

u o

f the

Cen

su

s R

ich

ard

s (1

99

1), W

RI (1

99

0)

Reid

& M

iller (1

989)

Vitousek (1994)

Source: IGBP

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment : Largest assessment of the health of Earth’s ecosystems

Experts and Review Process

Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries

80-person independent board of review editors

Review comments from 850 experts and governments

Governance

Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000

Authorized by governments through 4 conventions

Partnership of UN agencies, conventions, business, non-governmental organizations with a multi-stakeholder board of directors

Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

MA Framework

Direct Drivers

Indirect Drivers

Ecosystem Services

Human Well-being

Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or removal Technology adaptation and use External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological

drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade,

market and policy framework) Sociopolitical (governance and

institutional framework) Science and Technology Cultural and Religious

Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction

Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action

Paradigm Shift

Sustainable Development

Human Well-being

Green Economy

Brown Economy

Climate Change Adaptation

Approaches in Two Directions

Nobuo Mimura - Second International CC Adaptation Conference 2012

Merits and Limitations

Science-driven approach: •projections needed for proactive adaptation •but too complicated for local governments and communities.

Society need-based approach: •effective for responses to “today’s problems” based on the needs on the ground •but long-term CC risk may diffuse in the sea of problems

How to incorporate the scientific results to the today’s decision-making? What capacity is needed for this?

Nobuo Mimura - Second International CC Adaptation Conference 2012

Components of Science Approach

GCMs(Climate Models) Downscaling 1) Dynamic downscaling 2) Statistical downscaling 3) Direct calculation

Impact models 1) Models for physical impacts 2) Measures for economic impacts 3) How to incorporate the changes in society 4) Effects of adaption

Assessing vulnerability and future risk Adaptation planning Nobuo Mimura - Second International CC

Adaptation Conference 2012

Global Awareness About Important Role of Mountains

UNCED 1992 : Chapter 13 in Agenda 21: Rio Plus Five 1997 :

Mountains of the World: A Global Priority, and a companion policy document

Mountains of the World: Challenges for the 21st Century

UNCSD 1998 : Mountain Agenda “Mountains of the World – Water Towers for the

21st Century”

MA 2005 : Mountain Ecosystem

Hydrological and Climatological Significance of Mountains

High Precipitation Levels due to Orographic Precipitation

Storage and Distribution of Water to the

Lowlands Snow and Ice Storage Influence Atmospheric Circulations

The third pole of the planet With snow and ice mass comparable to those on the poles

•Extends east - west to over 2,400 km from 35oN, 74oE to 30oN, 95oE

•All the mountains over 8,000 m are in and around it including Mt. Everest, the highest in the world

•block and deflect air circulation

• exert profound thermal and dynamical influence on regional atmospheric circulation

• play a significant role in the Asian monsoon system

The Himalayas

Asian Water Tower the source of ten major river systems that together provide irrigation, power and

drinking water for 1.3 billion people – over 20% of the world’s population.

Glacier Area percentage 2,

566

.2

21,1

92.

7

9,0

11.5

14,0

19.8

35.5

1,35

1.8

234

.6

1,6

59.9

137.

4 2,

310

.3

7,53

4.6

4.3

35.3

15.0

23.3

0.1

2.3

0.4

2.8

0.2

3.8

12.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Pe

rce

nta

ge

(%

)

Gla

cie

r a

rea

(k

m2 )

Glacier area

Glacier area percent

Western Region (1, 2 & 3)

• high productivity – food surplus

• high investment in infrastructure

• major use of fertilisers and ground-

water for irrigation

• in-migration of labour

Eastern Region (4 & 5)

• low productivity – food deficit

• poor infrastructure and low inputs of

fertilizer and water

• high risk of flooding

• out-migration of labour

IGB General Characteristic

208, 17%

494, 41%

510, 42%

Himalayan Rivers SA - Annual Runoff (km3)

Indus

Ganges

Brahmaputra

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Indus Basin Ganges Basin

Brhmaputra Basin

165

401

182A

ve

rag

e P

op

ula

tio

n D

en

sit

y (

pe

op

le p

er

sq

.km

.)

River Basin

Himalayan Major River Basins Average Population Density (people per sq. km.)

Contributions of Major Rivers from Nepal to Ganges Flow at Farraka

Karnali (Ghagra) 94,400 mcm 20.6 %

Gandaki 52,200 mcm 11.4 %

Koshi 68,340 mcm 14.9 %

Total 214,940 mcm 46.9 %

mcm: million cubic metre

%: percentage of flow at Farraka

Glacier Area and Volume from Nepal Himalaya and Indian Himalaya contributing to Ganges River System

Source TERI

Governance of Water Resources

Major decision process concerning water is made outside ‘Water box’, the domain of water managers

Full incorporation of major external drivers’ articulation, which at times can even be vague, will be essential to move towards sustainable development and use of water resources

Challenges in Governance of Water Resources

Many problems associated with governance than with the resource base

Human dimensions often play crucial role

Dealing with uncertainties and surprises associated with climate change and globalization

Green Economy and Sustainable Himalayan Mountain Development

Recognizing the important role of Himalayan ecosystems and the services they provide, it requires greater attention

on livelihood issues faced by mountain communities, and on maintaining/enhancing ecosystem services.

Recognising upstream-downstream interdependency, there is a need to promote multi-stakeholder involvement in managing trans-boundary resources through

enhanced policies, institutional structures, funding mechanisms and other necessary support systems