ashby new car sales 053107 · 3. future year traffic forecasts without rezoning were calculated for...

1947 Center Street, 3rd Floor, Berkeley, CA 94704 Tel: 510.981-7010 Fax: 510.981-7060

1

Office of Transportation

MEMORANDUM May 31, 2007 To: Jordan Harrison, Planning Department

From: Peter Eakland, Associate Traffic Engineer Subject: Traffic Analysis for New Car Sales Land Uses on Ashby Avenue

The City of Berkeley is proposing a General Plan Amendment and zoning changes that together would allow for new car sales businesses in two areas where they currently are prohibited. This memo describes the traffic analysis for the Ashby corridor on the south side of Ashby west of San Pablo. The analysis has been designed to meet the requirements for a CEQA environmental review as well as a review by the Alameda County Congestion Management Agency. A second memo provides a similar traffic analysis in the Gilman corridor east of Eastshore Highway and west of Fifth Street. Summary The traffic analysis for in the weekday AM and PM peak hours as well as a weekend peak hour (early Saturday afternoon) indicate that no potential traffic impacts can be expected on directional road links in the vicinity of the area proposed for allowing new car dealerships. 1. Methodology The methodology utilized for the traffic analysis is consistent with level of service guidelines adopted by the Alameda Country Congestion Management Agency for the traffic analysis of General Plan Amendments. In fact, it goes beyond these guidelines in analyzing not only weekday PM peak hour conditions but weekday AM peak hour and weekend (Saturday) peak hour conditions. It also examines scenarios that generate less than 100 peak hour trips. Since the changes are in zoning, e.g. permitted uses in a district, general plan amendments are also required. The cumulative traffic analyses for years 2010 and 2025 are based on prototypical rather than specific projects.


2

City planning staff defined the boundaries of the area where rezoning is proposed. Prototypical locations for new auto sales that reflect site conditions anticipated by market conditions then were selected for use in the traffic analysis. The steps in the analysis were as follows:

1. Existing traffic counts at major intersections compiled/conducted for three time periods: weekday AM peak hour, weekday PM peak hour, and peak weekend period (early Saturday afternoon). Directional link volumes calculated for each of the three peak periods.

2. Directional link forecasts from the current version of the Alameda County Congestion

Management Agency for years 2005, 2010, and 2025 obtained for major roadways within or adjacent to the two areas proposed for rezoning. Forecast changes in traffic were calculated for periods 2005-2010 and 2005-2025.

3. Future year traffic forecasts without rezoning were calculated for directional links by

adding the forecast changes in traffic to the existing volumes obtained from traffic counts.

4. Trip generation for existing zoning and proposed new car sales zoning were calculated separately followed by calculation of the net change in trip generation for the three analysis periods, e.g. weekday AM peak hour, weekday PM peak hour, and weekend (early Saturday afternoon) peak.

5. Net traffic volumes resulting from the proposed rezoning calculated in Step 4 were

assigned to the directional links in the study area being analyzed.

6. Directional traffic links with proposed rezoning were calculated by adding the assigned net change in peak hour traffic volumes (Step 5) to background traffic forecasts (Step 3).

7. Change in volume-to-capacity ratios related to changes related to the proposed rezoning

were calculated based on link capacities related to road conditions, including the number of lanes and functional classification.

8. Finally, potential impacts, if any, were identified based on the level of service and the

change in volume-to-capacity ratio and, if necessary, possible mitigation measures. For analysis at the level of detail in the General Plan, level of service is based on the volume-to-capacity ratio (v/c), where capacity values are established for road categories rather than individual links. The City of Berkeley strives to have Level of Service (LOS) D or better at signalized intersections, where LOS E is defined as v/c>0.90 and <=1.00, and LOS F = v/c>1.00. Directional link capacity values used in this analysis were as follows: 650 vph for a one-lane, primary road link, and 1200 vph for a two-lane, primary road link. These generalized capacity figures provide adequate detail to identify locations where significant impacts would be likely to occur. What is important for the traffic analysis of a project or general plan amendment is to examine the relative change in traffic operations, which can be measured by a change in v/c, as well as links that operate near or at capacity. For this analysis, a potential impact is assumed to exist if the increase in the v/c exceeds 0.01 when a directional link is at LOS E or F, i.e. with a v/c greater than 0.90.


3

2. Existing Traffic Conditions Recent peak hour traffic counts for Ashby Avenue intersections at San Pablo Avenue and 7th Street were compiled from recent traffic analyses, and traffic volumes were calculated for both inbound and outbound movements. The summary of existing conditions for the three peak periods that are included in the traffic analysis are summarized in Table 1 and in Figures 1-3. As shown in Table 1, the highest directional link volume (1,594 vehicles/hour (vph)) occurs for the Ashby Avenue eastbound approach to 7th Street during the weekday AM peak hour. The next highest volume occurs during the PM peak hour and, as expected, is the opposing westbound link. In the PM peak hour, there are seven directional links with at least 1,000 vph, and in the AM peak hour there are only two. At the present time, based on the level of service criteria, there are two links at LOS E or F in the weekday AM peak hour, four in the PM peak hour, and two in the Saturday peak hour. The only two links with an estimated v/c greater than 1.04 are the two links on Ashby Avenue west of 7th Street, eastbound in the AM peak hour and westbound in the PM peak hour. These links can be assumed to be operating near capacity. 3. Description of Ashby Corridor Study Area and Potential Development with Rezoning The area proposed for rezoning is shown in Figure 4. It encompasses all of the Multi-Use Light Industrial (MU-LI) parcels that are south of Ashby Avenue. Its other boundaries are the CW District on the west side of San Pablo Avenue and the Emeryville-Berkeley border on the south, which is mid-block between Folger Avenue and 67th Street. The proposed project for environmental review purposes assumes two new new car sales businesses that would replace active light industrial sites. Sizes assumed are 0.3 acres and 2.0 acres, with coverage by buildings assumed to be 30 percent. A representative location for these two sites is shown. Both Ashby Avenue and San Pablo Avenue are primary streets located on both the MTS and CMA road networks. Ashby Avenue, an east-west street, is operated by Caltrans as Highway 13. Within the study area, it has two lanes in each direction throughout the day. Traffic signals are located at 7th Street, 9th Street, and San Pablo Avenue. On the Ashby Avenue approaches, left-turn lanes are provided except at the westbound approach with San Pablo Avenue. This deficiency has been identified and previous traffic studies in the area have included a new left-turn lane as an approved project. San Pablo Avenue is the major north-south primary street parallel to I-80 and extends from Oakland through Berkeley north to Hercules. It has two lanes in each direction and has a high level of transit service. The General Plan includes 7th Street as a primary street north of Ashby Avenue, and a secondary street to the south. The net change in traffic that is likely to occur with the proposed rezoning was estimated by the use of trip generation characteristics compiled in the Institute of Transportation Engineers’ publication entitled Trip Generation (7th edition). Tables 2-4 summarize the estimated trip generation for proposed new car sales developments and potential future light industrial activities currently allowed in each of the three peak periods being analyzed, respectively for the weekday AM peak hour, the weekday PM peak hour, and the Saturday PM peak hour (early afternoon). Two separate sites were assumed to be located in close proximity. The larger site would be 2.0 acres, and the smaller site 0.3 acres.


4

For the two weekday peak hours analyzed, the new car dealer businesses would generate approximately twice as much traffic as the same acreage with light industrial activity. The total net increase in trips would be approximately the same for these periods, 33 in the AM peak hour and 38 in the PM peak hour. For early Saturday afternoon, which was selected as the peak period for weekends, the increase of 77 trips would be twice as much as the weekday values because of a lower trip rate for light industrial activity and a slightly higher rate for auto sales dealers. None of the three time periods exceeds the threshold of 100 net new trips required for a CMA analysis. 4. Analysis of AM Peak Hour Adjusted Traffic Forecasts The analysis for the weekday AM peak hour focused on traffic conditions in 2010 and 2025, which are the current years required for a CMA traffic analysis for a General Plan Amendment. Table 5 presents the traffic volume forecasts obtained from the current CMA Model. From these forecasts, as shown in Table 6, incremental growth for the periods 2005-2010 and 2005-2025 were obtained and added to existing volumes. The adjusted forecasts for the years 2010 and 2025 become the baseline volumes to which net changes in traffic volume because of the proposed rezoning are added. For 2010, only one link, the eastbound approach of Ashby Avenue at 7th Street, has a v/c greater than 1.0, and in 2025 the v/c remains greater than 1.0 but the volume has decreased significantly. The two other links with a v/c greater than 0.90 are forecast to have decreases in traffic that result in v/c’s less than 0.90. However, significant increases in northbound traffic at the San Pablo Avenue/Ashby Avenue intersection result in the entering and exiting links slightly exceeding 0.90, which is the threshold for LOS E.

Rezoning Traffic Analysis The analysis focused first on calculating the difference in trip generation between the two proposed and currently allowable land uses. Then, it assesses whether or not this difference will result in significant impacts. The analysis was performed for two scenarios, with the difference being the location of the driveway. Scenario 1 (S1) would have an access driveway on Ashby Avenue between 7th Street and San Pablo, and Scenario 2 (S2) would have an access on 7th Street/Folger Street between Ashby Avenue. In the AM peak hour, the proposed rezoning is estimated to result in a net increase of 33 trips, 22 entering and 11 existing. Figure 5 presents the adjusted directional link forecasts for 2010 and 2025. The trips first were assigned to turning movements at the driveway based on existing traffic volumes on the adjacent links and next to upstream or downstream links, as appropriate. The results of this trip assignment are shown in Figure 6. Traffic Impact Analysis The volume-to-capacity ratios with and without the proposed rezoning are shown in Figure 7. No increase in a v/c for any of the directional links in the study area exceeds 0.01. Therefore, no potential traffic impacts can be expected from the proposed rezoning and General Plan amendment during the AM peak hour.


5

5. Analysis of PM Peak Period Adjusted Traffic Forecasts The analysis for the PM peak hour followed the description above for the AM peak hour analysis. It focused on traffic conditions in 2010 and 2025, which are the current years required for a CMA traffic analysis for a General Plan Amendment. Table 8 presents the traffic volume forecasts obtained from the current CMA Model. From these forecasts, as shown in Table 9, incremental growth for the periods 2005-2010 and 2005-2025 were obtained and added to existing volumes. The adjusted forecasts for the years 2010 and 2025 became the baseline volumes to which net changes in traffic volume because of the proposed rezoning are added. For 2010, the growth factors fall within a relatively narrow range, with a low of 0.95 and a high of 1.10. For 2025, however, the range is considerably larger, with a low of 0.78 for the westbound approach of Ashby Avenue at 7th Street and a high of 1.30 for southbound traffic leaving the intersection of San Pablo Avenue at 7th Street. Three links would experience a reduction of more than 200 vehicles compared to existing conditions, and two would have an increase of more than 300 vehicles. All of the links with a v/c greater than 1.10 are at the San Pablo/Ashby intersection.

Rezoning Traffic Analysis The analysis estimated the difference in trip generation between the two uses and then assessed whether or not this difference would result in significant traffic impacts. As shown in Table 3, the proposed rezoning would result in an estimated 38 net new trips in the PM peak hour, which is similar in magnitude to the estimate for the AM peak hour. The analysis was performed for two scenarios, one with a driveway on Ashby Avenue between 7th Street and San Pablo Avenue (S1) and the other on 7th Street south of Ashby Avenue (S2). Figure 8 presents the adjusted directional link forecasts for 2010 and 2025. Next, the inbound and outbound trips are assigned to each of these links based on link volumes for the possible travel routes. The results of this trip assignment are shown in Figure 9. First, the trips are assigned to turning movements at the driveway based on existing traffic volumes on the adjacent links and next to upstream or downstream links, as appropriate. Traffic Impact Analysis The volume-to-capacity ratios with and without the proposed rezoning are shown in Figure 10. No increase in a v/c for any of the directional links in the study area exceeds 0.01. Therefore, no potential traffic impacts can be expected from the proposed rezoning and General Plan amendment during the PM peak hour. 5. Analysis of Weekend Peak Traffic Adjusted Traffic Forecasts The forecasting process for the analysis of weekend trips differs somewhat from the AM and PM peak hour analyses, since the CMA traffic forecasting model does not provide weekend traffic forecasts. To generate the weekend peak hour forecasts, growth factors from existing conditions were assumed to be the same as those for the PM peak hour. This assumption was utilized recently to generate weekend forecasts for the traffic analysis of a major development in southwest


6

Berkeley (Berkeley Bowl). Table 11 presents the forecasts for 2010 and 2025 that results from the use of these growth factors. The v/c values for 2010 and 2025 are presented in Table 12. In 2010, the same two links that currently have values in excess of 0.90 remain the only two links that exceed this threshold. In 2025, three links have a v/c above 0.90 but they are different links than those in 2010 and none have a v/c that exceeds 1.0.

Rezoning Traffic Analysis The analysis focuses first on estimating the difference in trip generation between the two uses and then assessing whether or not this difference will impact comparing this difference against forecast traffic volumes based on current land use assumptions. For the weekend peak hour, a net change of 77 trips would result from the proposed rezoning, which is approximately twice the value for the weekday peak hours. The analysis was performed for two scenarios, one with a driveway on Ashby Avenue between 7th Street and San Pablo Avenue (S1) and the other on 7th Street south of Ashby Avenue (S2). Figure 11 presents the adjusted directional link forecasts for 2010 and 2025. Next, the inbound and outbound trips are assigned to each of these links based on link volumes for the possible travel routes. The results of this trip assignment are shown in Figure 12. First, the trips are assigned to turning movements at the driveway based on existing traffic volumes on the adjacent links and next to upstream or downstream links, as appropriate. Traffic Impact Analysis The volume-to-capacity ratios with and without the proposed rezoning are shown in Figure 13. With the higher net increase in trips generated compared to the weekday peak hours, increases in the v/c are somewhat higher. Potential impacts occur only where an v/c increase greater than 0.01 occurs where the v/c is greater than 0.90. In 2010, several links have v/c increases of 0.02, but none of these increases occurs on links with a v/c greater than 0.90. In 2025, the three links with v/c values greater than 0.90 are all at the San Pablo Avenue/Ashby Avenue intersection. None of the links would have a v/c increase greater than 0.01. The v/c for the eastbound approach on Ashby Avenue does not exceed 0.90, and the v/c for westbound traffic west of Ashby has a relatively low v/c at 0.60 with the proposed rezoning. Given these results, no potential traffic impacts can be expected from the proposed rezoning and General Plan amendment during weekend peak hours. Summary of Rezoning Traffic Analysis The net increases in traffic volumes for the proposed rezoning would be modest in size, with an increase of 33 trips in the weekday AM peak hour, 38 in the weekday PM peak hour, and 77 in the Saturday mid-day peak hour. These increases do not create an increase in the volume-to-capacity ratio greater than 0.01 on any directional link with an estimated Level of Service of E or F. Thus, the proposed rezoning, with the relatively small parcels likely to be utilized for car dealer uses, would not result in any significant traffic impacts.

Table 1. Peak Hour Existing Traffic Conditions

Counts Vol/ Counts Vol/ Counts Vol/Link Street Cross-street Direction(1) 2005 Cap(1) 2005 Cap(1) 2005 Cap(1)

1.1 Ashby San Pablo EB-in 1200 717 0.60 953 0.79 1037 0.861.2 EB-out 1200 704 0.59 910 0.76 1035 0.861.3 WB-in 1200 720 0.60 708 0.59 751 0.632.1 Ashby 7th Street EB-in 1200 1594 1.33 1033 0.86 1232 1.032.2 WB-in 1200 753 0.63 894 0.75 896 0.752.3 WB-out 1200 1006 0.84 1448 1.21 1097 0.913.1 San Pablo Ashby NB-in 1200 806 0.67 1253 1.04 869 0.723.2 NB-out 1200 760 0.63 1154 0.96 818 0.683.3 SB-in 1200 954 0.80 1143 0.95 998 0.833.4 SB-out 1600 866 0.54 1068 0.67 855 0.534.1 7th Street Ashby NB-in 1200 283 0.24 584 0.49 413 0.344.2 NB-out 1200 702 0.59 672 0.56 502 0.424.3 SB-in 1200 560 0.47 1022 0.85 529 0.444.4 SB-out 650 600 0.92 526 0.81 442 0.68

Legend: NB = northbound; SB=southbound; EB=eastbound;WB=westbound; vph=vehicles/hour.Notes: (1) v/c's greater than 0.90 highlighted.Counts: Berkeley Bowl DEIR, 2005-2006.

AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Saturday Pk HrCapac- ity (vph)

Figure 1.2005 Traffic Volumes in Study Area - AM Peak Hour

Seventh Street San Pablo Avenue

560 954

292 216 52 134 694 126

702 760Ashby Avenue Ashby Avenue

30 1351006 625 753 867 539 720

98 46530 66

1594 778 882 717 525 704286 126

600 866

89 142 52 194 559 53

283 806

N

Figure 2.2005 Traffic Volumes in Study Area - PM Peak Hour


1022 1143

559 297 166 113 856 174


28 1041448 762 894 925 595 708

104 9279 79

1033 629 887 953 671 910125 203

526 1068

127 365 92 217 971 65

584 1253

N

Figure 3.2005 Traffic Volumes in Study Area - Saturday Peak Hour


529 998

277 180 72 165 677 156


66 1231097 716 896 947 576 751

114 52234 130

1232 850 1029 1037 781 1035148 126

442 855

104 202 107 206 565 98

413 869

N

Proposed New Car Sales Zoning

Prototypical Site

Figure 4.Proposed Area for Zoning Change and Prototypical Site for Analysis

S = traffic signal S

S

S

Table 2.

Corridor Location Land Use Units (1) Size Total In Out Total In Out

Ashby Parcel 1 New Car Sales (2) ksf 3.92 2.05 0.74 0.26 8 6 2Light Industrial (3) acres 0.30 12.50 0.83 0.17 4 3 1

Net Change 4 3 1

Ashby Parcel 2 New Car Sales ksf 26.14 2.05 0.74 0.26 54 40 14Light Industrial acres 2.00 12.50 0.83 0.17 25 21 4

Net Change 29 19 10

Total Net Change 33 22 11

Notes: (1) ksf=thousand sq. ft. of gross floor area. (2) Average Rate for Land Use 841 (new car sales) in Institute of Transportation Engineers TripGeneration, 7th edition.(3) Rate for Land Use 110 (general light industrial) based all data points with less than 20 acres, where

trips ends = e 0.836 x ln(acres) + 2.94

Table 3.



Net Change 3 2 1


Net Change 35 20 15




Weekday AM Peak Trip Generation Comparison of Existing and Proposed Zoning

Trip Rates Trips

TripsTrip Rates

Weekday PM Peak Trip Generation Comparison of Existing and Proposed Zoning

Table 4.



Net Change 10 5 5

Ashby Parcel 2 New Car Sales ksf 26.14 2.97 0.51 0.49 78 40 38Light Industrial acres 2.00 5.50 0.47 0.53 11 5 6

Net Change 67 35 32




Trip Rates Trips

Saturday Peak Trip Generation Comparison of Existing and Proposed Zoning

Table 5. Weekday AM Peak Hour CMA Model Forecasts

Counts Vol/ Model Model ModelLink Street Cross-street Direction 2005 Cap(1) 2005 2010 20251.1 Ashby San Pablo EB-in 1200 717 0.60 628 635 5551.2 EB-out 1200 704 0.59 464 445 4321.3 WB-in 1200 720 0.60 1301 1349 14132.1 Ashby 7th Street EB-in 1200 1594 1.33 965 1047 6412.2 WB-in 1200 753 0.63 1400 1487 14012.3 WB-out 1200 1006 0.84 1159 1332 895 3.1 San Pablo Ashby NB-in 1200 806 0.67 957 999 12573.2 NB-out 1200 760 0.63 1350 1430 16713.3 SB-in 1200 954 0.80 1682 1794 17593.4 SB-out 1200 866 0.72 1353 1415 14814.1 7th Street Ashby NB-in 1200 283 0.24 204 231 2474.2 NB-out 1200 702 0.59 497 518 5614.3 SB-in 1200 560 0.47 464 495 3274.4 SB-in 650 600 0.92 749 776 605

Legend: NB = northbound; SB=southbound; EB=eastbound; WB=westbound; vph=vehicles/hour.Notes: (1) v/c's greater than 0.90 highlighted.Counts: Berkeley Bowl Draft EIR, 2005-2006.

Table 6. Weekday AM Peak Adjusted Traffic Forecasts

05-10 Incrm(1) 2010 Vol/ 05-25 Incrm(1) 2025 Vol/Link Street Cross-street Direction Factor 05-10 Adjstd Cap(2) Factor 05-25 Adjstd Cap(2)

1.1 Ashby San Pablo EB-in 1200 1.01 7 724 0.60 0.88 -73 644 0.541.2 EB-out 1200 0.96 -19 685 0.57 0.93 -32 672 0.561.3 WB-in 1200 1.04 48 768 0.64 1.09 112 832 0.692.1 Ashby 7th Street EB-in 1200 1.08 82 1676 1.40 0.66 -200 1394 1.162.2 WB-in 1200 1.06 87 840 0.70 1.00 1 754 0.632.3 WB-out 1200 1.15 173 1179 0.98 0.77 -200 806 0.673.1 San Pablo Ashby NB-in 1200 1.04 42 848 0.71 1.31 300 1106 0.923.2 NB-out 1200 1.06 80 840 0.70 1.24 321 1081 0.903.3 SB-in 1200 1.07 112 1066 0.89 1.05 77 1031 0.863.4 SB-out 1200 1.05 62 928 0.77 1.09 128 994 0.834.1 7th Street Ashby NB-in 1200 1.13 27 310 0.26 1.21 43 326 0.274.2 NB-out 1200 1.04 21 723 0.60 1.13 64 766 0.644.3 SB-in 1200 1.07 31 591 0.49 0.70 -137 423 0.355.1 7th Street Hollis/67th SB-in 650 1.04 27 627 0.96 0.81 -144 456 0.70

Legend: NB = northbound; SB=southbound; EB=eastbound; WB=westbound; vph=vehicles/hour.Notes: (1) Negative increments based on CMA model have been capped at -200. (2) v/c's greater than 0.90 highlighted.

2010 Adjusted Forecasts 2025 Adjusted Forecasts

Existing

Capac- ity (vph)

Capac- ity (vph)

CMA 2005 Mode

Figure 5.Adjusted Traffic Forecasts for Ashby Corridor Study Area without Projectfor AM Peak Hour

7th St.591 723423 766 1066 840

Ashby 1179 840 840 1031 1081 768806 754 754 832

1676 724 724 6851394 644 644 672

591 310423 326 928 848

994 1106

Legend: x.xx 2010 San Pablox.xx 2025 North

67th Street

Table 7. Weekday AM Peak Hour Net Traffic Changes for Rezoning

Scenario 1: Ashby between 7th & San Pablo 201010 6 12 5

Trips EB WB EB WB EB WB EB WBNet In 22 0.46 0.54 10 12 0.46 0.54 10 12Net Out 11 0.46 0.54 5 6 0.46 0.54 5 6 10 6 12 5Net Trips 33 2025

Scneario 2: 7th between Ashby and 67th 20108 7 14 4

NB SB NB SB NB SB NB SBNet In 22 0.34 0.66 8 14 0.44 0.56 10 12Net Out 11 0.34 0.66 4 7 0.44 0.56 5 6 10 6 12 5Net Trips 33 2025

Legend: NB = northbound; SB=southbound; EB=eastbound; WB=westbound; vph=vehicles/hour.

2010 Trips 2025 Percent

2025 Trips

2025 Trips

2010 Trips2010 Percent 2025 Percent

2010 Percent

S1

S2

Figure 6.Assignment of Net Change in Trips with Zoning Changefor Weekday AM Peak Hour

7th St.San Pablo

2 2 2 22 2 2 2

3 2 6 6 12 12 North3 2 2 3 2 3

7 7 10 10 5 5 Ashby4 5 2 2 2 2

1 1 1 28 10 7 7

2010 202567th Street Legend: xx xx Scenario 1 only

xx xx Scenario 2 only

Figure 7.Comparison of Volume-to-Capacity Ratios with and without Zoning Changefor Weekday AM Peak Hour

7th St.San Pablo

0.49 0.35 0.60 0.640.49 0.35 0.60 0.64

0.98 0.67 0.70 0.63 0.70 0.63 North0.99 0.67 0.71 0.63 0.71 0.64

1.40 1.16 0.60 0.54 0.60 0.54 Ashby1.40 1.17 0.61 0.55 0.61 0.54

0.49 0.35 0.26 0.270.50 0.36 0.26 0.28

2010 202567th Street Legend: x.xx x.xx V/C without Zoning Change

x.xx x.xx V/C with Zoning Change

Note: volume-to-capacity ratio (v/c) for rezoning based on highest trip volume for the two sitescenarios analyzed.

S2

S1

Table 8. Weekday PM Peak Hour CMA Model Forecasts

Counts Vol/ Model Model ModelLink Street Cross-street Direction 2005 Cap(1) 2005 2010 20251.1 Ashby San Pablo EB-in 1200 953 0.79 1554 1486 15941.2 EB-out 1200 910 0.76 1404 1321 15081.3 WB-in 1200 708 0.59 659 676 5762.1 Ashby 7th Street EB-in 1200 1033 0.86 1286 1223 10492.2 WB-in 1200 894 0.75 1039 1063 8142.3 WB-out 1200 1448 1.21 1312 1350 745 3.1 San Pablo Ashby NB-in 1200 1253 1.04 1524 1629 17953.2 NB-out 1200 1154 0.96 1962 2082 21733.3 SB-in 1200 1143 0.95 2215 2288 25383.4 SB-out 1200 1068 0.89 1547 1612 20074.1 7th Street Ashby NB-in 1200 584 0.49 774 804 6704.2 NB-out 1200 672 0.56 595 656 7064.3 SB-in 1200 1022 0.85 862 926 10164.4 SB-in 650 526 0.81 501 525 505

Legend: NB = northbound; SB=southbound; EB=eastbound; WB=westbound; vph=vehicles/hour.Notes: (1) v/c's greater than 0.90 highlighted.

Table 9. Weekday PM Peak Adjusted Traffic Forecasts


1.1 Ashby San Pablo EB-in 1200 0.96 -68 885 0.74 1.03 40 993 0.831.2 EB-out 1200 0.94 -83 827 0.69 1.07 104 1014 0.851.3 WB-in 1200 1.03 17 725 0.60 0.87 -83 625 0.522.1 Ashby 7th Street EB-in 1200 0.95 -63 970 0.81 0.82 -200 833 0.692.2 WB-in 1200 1.02 24 918 0.77 0.78 -200 694 0.582.3 WB-out 1200 1.03 38 1486 1.24 0.57 -200 1248 1.043.1 San Pablo Ashby NB-in 1200 1.07 105 1358 1.13 1.18 271 1524 1.273.2 NB-out 1200 1.06 120 1274 1.06 1.11 211 1365 1.143.3 SB-in 1200 1.03 73 1216 1.01 1.15 323 1466 1.223.4 SB-out 1200 1.04 65 1133 0.94 1.30 460 1528 1.274.1 7th Street Ashby NB-in 1200 1.04 30 614 0.51 0.87 -104 480 0.404.2 NB-out 1200 1.10 61 733 0.61 1.19 111 783 0.654.3 SB-in 1200 1.07 64 1086 0.91 1.18 154 1176 0.985.1 7th Street Hollis/67th SB-in 650 1.05 24 550 0.85 1.01 4 530 0.82


Capac- ity (vph)

CMA 2005 Mode

Capac- ity (vph)


Existing

Figure 8.Adjusted Traffic Forecasts without Project for Weekday PM Peak Hour

7th St.1086 7331176 783 1216 1274

Ashby 1486 918 918 1466 1365 7251248 694 694 625

970 885 885 827833 993 993 1014

1086 6141176 480 1133 1358

1528 1524


67th Street

Table 10. Weekday PM Peak Hour Net Traffic Changes for Zoning Change






2010 Trips2010 Percent 2025 Percent

2010 Percent

2025 Trips

2025 Trips2010 Trips 2025 Percent

S1

S2

Figure 9.Assignment of Net Change in Trips with Zoning Changefor Weekday PM Peak Hour

7th St.

4 6 2 23 3 2 3

San Pablo4 3 8 7 11 9 North5 5 2 2 2 2

4 4 11 13 8 9 Ashby3 2 3 4 3 4

3 3 3 38 6 10 10



Figure 10.Comparison of Volume-to-Capacity Ratios with and without Zoning Changefor Weekday PM Peak Hour

7th St.

0.91 0.98 0.61 0.650.91 0.99 0.61 0.65

San Pablo1.24 1.04 0.77 0.58 0.77 0.58 North1.24 1.04 0.77 0.58 0.77 0.59

0.81 0.69 0.74 0.83 0.74 0.83 Ashby0.81 0.70 0.75 0.84 0.74 0.84

0.91 0.98 0.51 0.400.91 0.99 0.52 0.41




S2

S1

Table 11. Weekend Peak Hour Forecasts

Counts Vol/ 05-10 05-25Link Street Cross-street Direction 2005 Cap(1) Factor Factor 2010 20251.1 Ashby San Pablo EB-in 1200 1037 0.86 0.96 1.03 992 10641.2 EB-out 1200 1035 0.86 0.94 1.07 974 11121.3 WB-in 1200 751 0.63 1.03 0.87 770 6562.1 Ashby 7th Street EB-in 1200 1232 1.03 0.95 0.82 1172 10052.2 WB-in 1200 896 0.75 1.02 0.78 917 7022.3 WB-out 1200 1097 0.91 1.03 0.57 1129 6233.1 San Pablo Ashby NB-in 1200 869 0.72 1.07 1.18 929 10243.2 NB-out 1200 818 0.68 1.06 1.11 868 9063.3 SB-in 1200 998 0.83 1.03 1.15 1031 11443.4 SB-out 1200 855 0.71 1.04 1.30 891 11094.1 7th Street Ashby NB-in 1200 413 0.34 1.04 0.87 429 3584.2 NB-out 1200 502 0.42 1.10 1.19 553 5964.3 SB-in 1200 529 0.44 1.07 1.18 568 6244.4 SB-in 650 442 0.68 1.05 1.01 463 446

Legend: NB = northbound; SB=southbound; EB=eastbound; WB=westbound; vph=vehicles/hour.Notes: (1) v/c's greater than 0.90 highlighted.

Table 12. Weekday Peak Hour Adjusted Traffic Forecasts


1.1 Ashby San Pablo EB-in 1200 0.96 -45 992 0.83 1.03 27 1064 0.891.2 EB-out 1200 0.94 -61 974 0.81 1.07 77 1112 0.931.3 WB-in 1200 1.03 19 770 0.64 0.87 -95 656 0.552.1 Ashby 7th Street EB-in 1200 0.95 -60 1172 0.98 0.82 -200 1032 0.862.2 WB-in 1200 1.02 21 917 0.76 0.78 -194 702 0.582.3 WB-out 1200 1.03 32 1129 0.94 0.57 -200 897 0.753.1 San Pablo Ashby NB-in 1200 1.07 60 929 0.77 1.18 155 1024 0.853.2 NB-out 1200 1.06 50 868 0.72 1.11 88 906 0.753.3 SB-in 1200 1.03 33 1031 0.86 1.15 146 1144 0.953.4 SB-out 1200 1.04 36 891 0.74 1.30 254 1109 0.924.1 7th Street Ashby NB-in 1200 1.04 16 429 0.36 0.87 -55 358 0.304.2 NB-out 1200 1.10 51 553 0.46 1.19 94 596 0.504.3 SB-in 1200 1.07 39 568 0.47 1.18 95 624 0.525.1 7th Street Hollis/67th SB-in 650 1.05 21 463 0.71 1.01 4 446 0.69


Capac- ity (vph)

CMA PM Fctrs

Capac- ity (vph)


Existing Forecasts

Figure 11.Adjusted Traffic Forecasts for Ashby Corridor Study Area without Projectfor Weekend Peak Hour

7th St.568 553624 596 1031 868

Ashby 1129 917 917 1144 906 770897 702 702 656

1172 992 992 9741032 1064 1064 1112

568 429624 358 891 929

1109 1024


67th Street

Table 13. Weekend Peak Hour Net Traffic Changes for Rezoning






2010 Trips 2025 Percent

2025 Percent

2010 Percent

2025 Trips

2025 Trips

2010 Trips2010 Percent

S1

S2

Figure 12.Assignment of Net Change in Trips with Zoning Changefor Weekend Peak Hour

7th St.

6 7 4 44 4 4 6

San Pablo9 6 18 15 19 16 North9 8 6 4 6 4

11 12 21 24 19 22 Ashby7 7 8 10 8 10

5 4 4 417 15 21 21



Figure 13.Comparison of Volume-to-Capacity Ratios with and without Zoning Changefor Weekend Peak Hour

7th St.

0.47 0.52 0.46 0.500.48 0.53 0.46 0.50

San Pablo0.94 0.75 0.76 0.58 0.76 0.58 North0.95 0.75 0.78 0.60 0.78 0.60

0.98 0.86 0.83 0.89 0.83 0.89 Ashby0.99 0.87 0.84 0.91 0.84 0.90

0.47 0.52 0.36 0.300.49 0.53 0.38 0.32




S2

S1

ashby new car sales 053107 · 3. future year traffic forecasts without rezoning were calculated for...

Documents