asfpm 2016: risk identification using hazus
TRANSCRIPT
6/21/2016
Risk Identification using HazusCity of Boston, Suffolk County, MA
Dave Shortman, GISP, CFM
2
Agenda
Objective Project Location Hazus Overview Hazus Level 2 Risk Assessment Comparison and Reporting of Results Conclusions
Objective
3
4
Objective
The main objective of the study was to determine the potential economic loss associated with coastal flooding
Also to compare results from Hazus 2.1 to 3.1
Project Location
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Project Location - Suffolk County, MA
Hazus Overview
Hazus
FEMA’s HAZards United States (HAZUS) tool is designed to produce loss estimates for use by federal, state, regional and local governments and private enterprises in planning for risk mitigation, emergency preparedness, response and recovery
HAZUS includes capabilities to analyze earthquakes, floods and hurricane winds
Hazus was recently updated with census 2010 data
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Levels of AnalysisCommunity-Specific Damage Functions
Link HAZUS with Hydraulic Model
Distribution of Terrain
0%
5%10%
15%
20%
25%30%
35%
40%45%
Perc
enta
ge o
f Are
a
Dam
age
Flood Depth
Level 1
Use Default Databases
Level 1 DefaultDatabases
Level 2 UserModified
Data
Level 3 ExpertSupplied
Data
Modify Building Inventory
Aerial Photo
Number of Buildings by Specific Occupancy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4 RES5 RES6
Bui
ldin
g C
ount
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Flood Model Methodology
Define Hazard: Flood Surface Land Surface
Define and Overlay Inventory
Determine Damage
Estimate Losses
Level 1 Analysis – Floodplain Boundary
Level 1 Analysis – Buildings with Substantial Damage
Level 1 Analysis – Total Losses
HAZUS Level 2 Risk Assessment
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Boston Harbor HAZUS Study
Level 2 analysis using historic flood hazard information and census data – Effective Flooding (1990)
Level 2 analysis using detailed engineering data along with census data – Preliminary (2013) and Revised Preliminary (2015, new effective)
“Modified” Level 2
Defining the Hazards
Topographic data from FEMA’s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010
Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15,
2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9,
2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model
Census data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1
Defining the Hazards
Topographic data from FEMA’s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010
Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15,
2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9,
2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model
Census block data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1
Waterfront Development AreasSouth Boston Waterfront (Effective SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates
Waterfront Development AreasSouth Boston Waterfront (Preliminary SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates
Waterfront Development AreasEast Boston Shorefront (Effective SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates
Waterfront Development AreasEast Boston Shorefront (Preliminary SFHA overlay)
Coastal Updates
Defining the Hazards
Topographic data from FEMA’s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010
Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15,
2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9,
2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model
Census block data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1
East Boston
South Boston
Fenway
Charlestown
Downtown
South End
Back Bay
South Boston Waterfront
Beacon Hill
North End
West End
Chinatown
Bay Village
Leather District
REVERE
MEDFORD
CAMBRIDGE
SOMERVILLE
WINTHROP
BOSTON
EVERETT
CHELSEA
Fort
Poin
t Cha
nnel
BostonHarbor
Legendwhdepth2015Value
High : 45.4059
Low : -24.3278
Town Boundary
NeighborhoodsN
0 1 20.5Miles
Charles River
Mystic River
Chel
sea R
iver
Boston Harbor HazusWoods Hole Group
Residential Total Loss
Defining the Hazards
Topographic data from FEMA’s Charles River HUC 8 LiDAR FY2010
Flood surface generated from Effective Data (1990 FIS, study
performed in 1987) Preliminary Data (November 15,
2013) Revised Preliminary Data (July 9,
2015) Using CHAMP/WHAFIS results
along with updated elevation data we developed depth grids that are compatible with the HAZUS model
Census block data from Hazus 2.1 & 3.1
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Dasymetric Data
Hazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1
Results
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East Boston
South Boston
Fenway
Charlestown
Downtown
South End
Back Bay
South Boston Waterfront
Beacon Hill
North End
West End
Chinatown
Bay Village
Leather District
REVERE
MEDFORD
CAMBRIDGE
SOMERVILLE
WINTHROP
BOSTON
EVERETT
CHELSEA
Fort
Poin
t Cha
nnel
BostonHarbor
LegendTotalLoss
0
1 - 1000
1001 - 2000
2001 - 3000
3001 - 4000
4001 - 5000
5001 - 8000
8001 - 10000
10001 - 17500
Town Boundary
Neighborhoods
N
0 1 20.5Miles
Charles River
Mystic River
Chels
ea R
iver
Boston Harbor HazusEffective
Total Loss
Total Losses – EffectiveHazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1
East Boston
South Boston
Fenway
Charlestown
Downtown
South End
Back Bay
South Boston Waterfront
Beacon Hill
North End
West End
Chinatown
Bay Village
Leather District
REVERE
MEDFORD
CAMBRIDGE
SOMERVILLE
WINTHROP
BOSTON
EVERETT
CHELSEA
Fort
Poin
t Cha
nnel
BostonHarbor
LegendTotalLoss
0
1 - 1000
1001 - 2000
2001 - 3000
3001 - 4000
4001 - 5000
5001 - 8000
8001 - 10000
Over 10000
Town Boundary
Neighborhoods
N
0 1 20.5Miles
Charles River
Mystic River
Chels
ea R
iver
Boston Harbor HazusRevised Preliminary
Total Loss
Total Losses – Revised PreliminaryHazus 2.1 Hazus 3.1
Summary
Hazus 2.1 Results: Overall Exposure: $32,381.1M Damages:
Effective Total: $305M Building Loss: $141.5M Contents Loss: $158.5M Other Loss*: $50.1M
Revised Preliminary Total: $973.2M
Building Loss: $345.7M Contents Loss: $592.7M Other Loss*: $34.8M
*Other Loss Includes Inventory, Relocation, Income, Rental Income, and Wage Losses
Hazus 3.1 Results Overall Exposure: $94,466.4M* Damages:
Effective Total:$268.8M
Building Loss:$119.9M
Contents Loss:$145.0M
Other Loss*:$3.9M
Revised Preliminary Total:
$1,274.6M Building Loss: $434.1M Content Loss: $800.9M Other Loss: $39.7M
Structure Density – Boston NorthStructures Added to Preliminary SFHA
Coastal Updates
Coastal Updates
Structure DensityPopulation Density for StructuresWithin the Preliminary SFHA
Population Density – Boston NorthPopulation Density for StructuresWithin the Preliminary SFHA
Changes Since Last FIRM
Community Change Area mi2
Area Increase mi2
Area Decrease mi2
Area Net mi2
Boston CHHA 5.3 2.0 0.0 2.0Boston SFHA 12.3 2.8 0.2 2.6Boston NonSFHA 2.0 1.4 0.0 1.4Chelsea CHHA 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1Chelsea SFHA 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.7Chelsea NonSFHA 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1Revere CHHA 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1Revere SFHA 3.4 0.4 0.0 0.4Revere NonSFHA 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0Winthrop CHHA 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5Winthrop SFHA 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.2Winthrop NonSFHA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Suffolk County CHHA 7.1 2.7 0.0 4.4Suffolk County SFHA 18.6 4.1 0.2 3.9Suffolk County NonSFHA 2.4 1.6 0.1 0.8
Change DefinitionsCHHA – coastal high hazard area (Velocity zone increase/decreaseSFHA – special flood hazard area increase/decrease (Zone A, AE, AO, AH)NonSFHA – 0.2% Annual Chance Flood increase/decrease
Comparison to HAZUS-MH Values in Draft Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Analysis done by Metropolitan Area Planning Commission Earthquake Damages
5.0 magnitude with an epicenter in downtown Boston - $3,450.0M 6.0 magnitude with an epicenter on Cape Ann - $431.7M 6.5 magnitude with an epicenter in central New Hampshire - $457.1M
Wind Damages 1938 Hurricane - $372.2M Hurricane Carol (1954) - $819.6M Hurricane Irene (2011) - $8.6M
Riverine and Stream Flooding (100 year event) Charles River Watershed - $16.6M Mother Brook Watershed - $105.6M Muddy River Watershed - $81.1M Mystic River Watershed - $9.0M Combined - $212.3M
Conclusions
Updated SFHA and topographic data provide more accurate results
Hazus 3.1 gives an up to date assessment of exposure and damages Boston coastal housing and commercial stock has gained significant
value since 2000 census Coastal development has increased Barring a major event the growth in Boston will continue Hazus with 2020 census? Flood Risk Assesment Database cannot handle these values (Long
data type ~ 2.1 billion)
Questions?