ases july 2006 solar meets the peak oil challenge ases forum peak oil, climate recovery, and...
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ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Solar Meets the Peak Oil Challenge
ASES Forum
Peak Oil, Climate Recovery, and Renewable Energy
Thursday 10:30am to 12:00pm
Ron Swenson
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Swenson’s Law
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Roscoe Bartlett
“It might seem possible to “fill the gap” in the short term. However, in the long term, this will be impossible. For one thing, it will hasten the exhaustion of other finite resources. That will make the inevitable transition to renewable sources more difficult and more painful.”
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Energy Scoreboard
Primary challenges are:
• EROEI
• Global Warming
• Scalability
• Timing
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Why leave out Economics?
• Economics is an instrument of policy.
• It’s the last step in the process:–First figure out what works…–Then create incentives.
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
EROEI
• Energy Returned On Energy Invested
• ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
EROEI for PV• EPBT: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be bootstrapped
EROEI = 1030 ~ electric
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
EROEI for Thin Film PV
• EPBT: 6 months
• Life: 20 years
EROEI = 40120 ~electric
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
EROEI for Wind• EPBT: 3 months
• Life: 20 years
EROEI = 80240 ~ electric
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Global Warming
• Thanks to Al Gore, I can keep this short!
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Atmospheric CO2
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse
• Feb-Mar 2002 • In about 35
days• Larger than
Rhode Island• Totally baffled
scientists• 1 down, 4 to go
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
EROEI for Tar Sands
Plus…• Ravaged land• Water contamination• Extraction uses
natural gas
• Low EROEI → Greenhouse gasesEROEI = 3?
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric
EROEI for NuclearPlus …
• Terrorism
• Waste guarded for 10,000+ years
• Depletion → low grade ores →
Greenhouse gases
… How do we value a 1,000+ year wasteland?
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
EROEI for Hydrogen
Am I missing something?!
EROEI = -½
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Scalability
Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)
178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Renewable EnergySolar
1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface
600 TW practicalBiomass5-7 TW gross
all cultivatab
le land not used
for foodHydroelectricGeotherma
l
Wind2-4 TW
extractable
4.6 TW gross1.6 TW technically feasible0.9 TW economically feasible0.6 TW installed capacity
12 TW gross over landsmall fraction recoverable
Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
There is no SilverSilver Bullet.Why SilverSilver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize
that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted.
• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35• Specific gravity of AgAg = 10.50AgAgAgAg
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
There is no AgAg Bullet.
• Now I think I follow what you mean.
Let’s find out why….
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Corn Ethanol
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Corn Ethanol• Energy content 75% from fossil fuels:
– Coal (electricity) > 40%– Natural gas (to heat mash) > 30%– Not to mention fertilizer, tractor & truck fuel
• Photosynthesis 5- 26% • Depletes soil and water supplies • Competes with food resources• Not carbon-neutral
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Sugar Cane Ethanol (Brazil)
• Meets 40% of demand
• Brazil per capita use is 10% of US • 40% x 10% = 4%
• Many sugar cane workers are slaves
• Produces aldehydes in exhaust
• Soil and water conditions very different
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Cellulosic Ethanol …Photosynthesis:Sunlight ~ 0.25%
Photosynthesis:PV (or STE) ~ 0.5% - 2%
USA: PV on all paved land
0.1 m km2
~ 11 Gb/yr
(150%)
USA: Cellulose from all forests
3 m km2
~ 6 Gb/yr
(80%)
USA: Cellulose from all ag land 1.5 m km2
~ 3 Gb/yr
(40%)
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Cellulosic Ethanol
“All we need to do is change the make-up of ~25% of present wooded land space.”
Land to achieve 30 Gb/yr 15 m km2
Global forests 40 m km2
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Forest Facts
• Forests cover just under 4 billion hectares, 40 million km2 or 30% of the total land area
• Global deforestation – 13 million hectares
• Net loss of forests – 7.3 million hectares
• 36% of the forest area has had little or no human impact
• Area of forest plantations 140 million hectares and increasing by 2.8 million hectares/year
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Without Cellulosic Ethanol
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …
...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Ethanol Scorecard
EROEI DGlobal Warming DScalability D+Timing C+
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
But renewables make electricity, not liquid fuels!?• How do we handle transportation after
peak oil?
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Timing
• Application Technology: PRT
• Note distinction between application technology and generation technology.
• In relationship to peak oil and climate change, uses of energy are as critical as sources of energy.
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Freeway at Capacity
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Vehicles Removed
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PRT Passengers
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
PRT System
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Solar PRT
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Solar PRT • 10 kw @ 100 mph
• 36 vehicles/mi at 1 second interval • 360 kw needed in a mile stretch • 68 watts / lineal ft per lane at peak sun
• 10 hrs peak operation, 5 hrs sun • 720 kw / mile • 8.3 ft wide solar panel at full capacity
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Solar PRT Capacity• Skytran: Two people every second
– 7,200 passengers per hour– 72,000 passengers per day
• Rail: – About 8,000 passengers per hour– 60,000 passengers per day – Washington, DC ~ 41,000 pass-mile / route-mile
• Highway: 1.2 average occupancy– 2400 persons per lane / hour
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Solar PRT Scorecard
EROEI AGlobal Warming AScalability B-Timing D+
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
PV: The Growth Industry
OilOil
PVPV
Oil declines at 4%/yr(?)
PV increases at 50%/yr
?
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006
Wake Up!!!
ASES July 2006 www.Ecotopia.com/ASES/Solar2006