ascc prf day 1 final compressed - cif-ifc.org...2019/07/02 · 9:00 climate change considerations...
TRANSCRIPT
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DESIGNING FOREST ADAPTATION TREATMENTS
AT THE PETAWAWA RESEARCH FORESTTHROUGH SCIENTIST‐MANAGER PARTNERSHIPS
DESIGNING FOREST ADAPTATION TREATMENTS
AT THE PETAWAWA RESEARCH FORESTTHROUGH SCIENTIST‐MANAGER PARTNERSHIPS
Petawawa Research Forest (PRF) Best Western Inn, Pembroke, ON, Canada
July 16‐18, 2019
Petawawa Research Forest (PRF) Best Western Inn, Pembroke, ON, Canada
July 16‐18, 2019
Great Lakes St. Lawrence Forest ASCC Workshop Goals
• An introduction to conceptual tools and resources designed to help integrate climate change considerations into natural resource management planning and decision‐making;
• Discussion of regional climate change projections, impacts, and ecosystem vulnerabilities;
• Opportunity to apply concepts from the workshop in a scenario‐based breakout activity; and
• Overview of a long‐term North American climate change adaptation network that will have an installation at the Petawawa Research Forest.
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July 16, 2019:8:00 Introductions & Workshop Overview8:30 Climate Science Overview
(John Pedlar, CFS) 9:00 Climate Change Considerations for Silvicultural Decision‐Making
(Linda Nagel, CSU)10:00 Break10:30 Ecology & Silviculture of the Great‐Lakes St. Lawrence Forest
(Trevor Jones, CFS, and Peter Arbour, PRF)11:00 Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the Great‐Lakes St. Lawrence Forest
(Samuel Royer‐Tardif, CFS)11:30 Climate change in the Canadian Forest Service
(Jason Edwards, CFS)12:00 Lunch 1:00 Overview of the Vulnerability Assessment for Climate Change (VACC) at the
Petawawa Research Forest (Michael Hoepting, CFS, & Jeff Fera, CFS)
1:30 Overview of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies(Linda Nagel, CSU)
2:15 Breakout Exercise: Developing Climate Change Adaptation Approaches & Tactics(Linda Nagel, CSU, Courtney Peterson, CSU, & Maria Janowiak, NIACS)
4:00 Group Report‐Outs on Approaches and Tactics4:45 Wrap‐up & Evaluations5:00 Adjourn
WORKSHOP AGENDA
Desired ConditionsNatural Forest
Dynamics
Wildlife Habitat
Past Management
History
Invasives Timber Sale Revenue
Disturbance:Past + Future
Recreation
Forest Health
And more!! Climate Change
Plan & Project Requirements
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Activity #1
Climate Change Considerations for Forest Management
What new or different considerations
do we need to think about when
managing forests in the face of a
changing climate?
Activity #1
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Adapting to Climate Change
Project Goals: 1) Co‐develop robust, operational examples of how to
integrate climate change adaptation into silvicultural planning and on‐the‐ground actions to foster resilience to the impacts of climate change and enable adaptation to uncertain futures
2) Introduce managers to tools and approaches to integrate climate change into silvicultural decision making that meets management goals and objectives
ADAPTIVE SILVICULTURE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (ASCC)
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Petawawa Research Forest, ON, Canada
Flathead NF/Coram EF, MT
Chippewa NF/Cutfoot EF, MN
J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center, GA
MNRRA, MNColorado State Forest, CO
San Juan NF, CO
Second College Grant/Dartmouth College, NH
Colorado State University
USFS SRS
NIACS
USFS PSW
OSU
USFS PNW
Science Collaborators
Network Study Sites
ASCC Network PIs
Urban Affiliate Sites
Prospective Sites
USFS NRS
THE ASCC NETWORK
Intentionality
• Explicitly consider and address climate change
• Sure we might get
lucky…
• Intentionally assessing risk and vulnerabilities
makes our plans more
robust!
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Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
Climate‐Driven Changes
What actions can be taken toenhance the ability of a
system to cope with change and
meet goals and objectives?
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Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in response to climate change.
Ecosystem‐based adaptation activities build on sustainable management, conservation, and restoration principles.
Adaptation Concepts
Reduce impacts/ Maintain current conditions
Forward‐looking/ Promote change
Manage for Persistence:Ecosystems are still recognizable as being
the same system (character)
Manage for Change:Ecosystems have fundamentally changed to something different
Resistance Resilience Transition(Response)
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Improve the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or
directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain
relatively unchanged conditions
• Short‐term
• High‐value
Millar et al. 2007, 2008; DeRose and Long 2014
OPTION #1 – RESISTANCE
Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
OPTION #1 – RESISTANCE
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Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
OPTION #1 – RESISTANCE
Accommodate some degree of change, but encourage a return to a prior condition after disturbance
Millar et al. 2007, 2008; DeRose and Long 2014
Photos: USFS
OPTION #2 – RESILIENCE
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Desired Future Condition
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
OPTION #2 – RESILIENCE
Intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to adaptively respond to changing/new conditions
Millar et al. 2007, 2008
OPTION #3 – TRANSITION (RESPONSE)
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TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
OPTION #3 – TRANSITION (RESPONSE)
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
▪ Improve defenses of forest against change
▪ Maintain relatively unchanged conditions
▪ Accommodate some degree of change
▪ Return to prior condition after disturbance
▪ Facilitate change▪ Enable ecosystem to respond to new and changing conditions
Adaptation Options
Design actions that are robust across a range of potential future conditions
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Planning Adaptation
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management.
• Workbook approachAlso online: AdaptationWorkbook.org
Swanston et al. 2016, www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
Forest Adaptation Resources
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Adaptation Workbook
Swanston et al. 2016 (2nd edition)www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APPROACHES
TACTICS
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs‐strategies
Options (concepts): • Resistance, Resilience, Transition
Strategies:• Regionally specific conditions
Approaches:• Actions for a specific ecosystem
Tactics: • Prescriptions for local conditions
and mgmt. objectives
Translating broad concepts to actions
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Example:Strategy 3: Reduce the risk and long‐term
impacts of severe disturbances.
Approach 3.1: Alter forest structure or composition to reduce risk or severity of wildfire.
Tactics 3.1.1: Using prescribed fire and thinning to reduce surface fuels, increase height to live crown, decrease crown closure, and create a more open forest structure that is
expected to be less vulnerable to severe wildfire.
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
Management Goals & Objectives
Climate Change Impacts
Intent of Adaptation (Option)
Make Idea Specific(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement(Tactic)
Challenges & Opportunities
Why it’s important:Helps connect the dots from broad concepts to specific actions for
implementation.
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Adaptation Workbook
www.adaptationworkbook.org
Adaptation strategies and approaches + Adaptation Workbook
Climate Change Response Framework
www.forestadaptation.org
Resources, tools, demos
Same actions–climate change just makes them that much more important
Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness
New & different actions to consider, even some that may seem wild & crazy
*individual results will vary
Adaptation actions may not look that different from current management actions, especially in the near term.
One last thought….
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Activity #2
Developing Adaptation Actions for Forests
Least Projected Change
Most Projected Change
Activity #2
CSIRO (B1) CSIRO (A1B) HAD (A1B) MIROC (A1B) MIROC (A2)
In this activity you will use your silvicultural expertise to illustrate how climate change and uncertainty may affect stand‐level management for specific ecosystems or forest types
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Activity #2
As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in
1) Create and describe a hypothetical management situation
– Conditions: Location, site conditions, species composition, stand structure, disturbance history and susceptibility, etc.
– Typical management: Management goals and objectives, common practices
1
2
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5
Activity #2
As a group, select a forest type or ecosystem to work in
2) Identify important climate change considerations
– Anticipated effects on various forest components
– Characteristics that increase/reduce vulnerability
3) Identify challenges or opportunities for meeting management goals under climate change
1
2
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5
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Maps/data for this section courtesy of Canadian Center for Climate Services Climate Data Viewer
To help think about climate change in your region
Precipitation change (summer and winter)
Temperature change (summer and winter)
Change in climate moisture index (summer and winter)
Activity #2
Climate Model: CMIP5 RCP 8.5Change in Mean Seasonal Temperature
1986‐2005 vs. 2081‐2100 Season: Summer (J‐J‐A) Petawawa = 6.1 C
Season: Winter (D‐J‐F) Petawawa = 6.6 C
Change in Mean Seasonal Precipitation 1986‐2005 vs. 2081‐2100
Season: Summer (J‐J‐A) Petawawa = ‐2.8%
Season: Winter (D‐J‐F) Petawawa = 22.2%
Climate Model: CMIP5 RCP 4.5
Change in Mean Seasonal Temperature 1986‐2005 vs. 2081‐2100
Season: Summer (J‐J‐A) Petawawa = 3 C
Change in Mean Seasonal Precipitation 1986‐2005 vs. 2081‐2100
Season: Summer (J‐J‐A) Petawawa = 1.1%
Season: Winter (D‐J‐F) Petawawa = 3.7 C Season: Winter (D‐J‐F) Petawawa = 14.4%
Climate Model: CanESM2 RCP 4.5
Change in Climate Moisture Index (cm) 2071‐2100 minus 1971‐2000
Season: Summer (J‐J‐A) Petawawa = ‐9.8 cm
Change in Climate Moisture Index (cm)2071‐2100 minus 1971‐2000
Season: Summer (J‐J‐A) Petawawa = ‐20.6 cm
Season: Winter (D‐J‐F) Petawawa = +3.0 cm Season: Winter (D‐J‐F) Petawawa = +5.1 cm
Climate Model: CanESM2 RCP 8.5
) -40 - -30 -30 - -20 -20 - -10 -10 - 0 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40Change in Climate Moisture Index (cm)
Activity #2
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?
1
2
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5
Expand and Re‐envision your silvicultural toolbox
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Activity #2
What actions can be taken to enhance the ability of the area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet
management goals?
Where are you working, and what are your forest management goals?
Forest:
Location and conditions:
Current management:
What climate change impacts create challenges or opportunities for meeting these goals?
What actions would you recommend to enhance the ability of forests to adapt?
Adaptation Tactics:
1)
2)
3)
Swanston et al. 2016 (2nd edition)www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
1. DEFINE area of interest,
management objectives, and time
frames
2. ASSESS climate change impacts & vulnerabilities for
the area of interest.
3. EVALUATEmanagement
objectives given climate impacts and
vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics.
5. MONITOR and evaluate
effectiveness if implemented
actions.
Vulnerability Assessments
Adaptation Strategies
and Approaches
Adaptation WorkbookA structured process to integrate climate change
considerations into management planning and activities
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Resources
Janowiak, Swanston, Nagel, et al. 2014. A Practical Approach for Translating Climate Change Adaptation Principles into Forest Management Actions. Journal of Forestry 112:424‐433.
Millar, Stephenson, Stephens. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17(8):2145‐2151.
Swanston et al. 2016. Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate change tools and approaches for land managers.USDA GTR NRS‐87
www.forestadaptation.org
www.adaptationworkbook.org