***ARCTIC NEGATIVE-MASTER FILE***KQ PortsSpillsImpact DefenseAlaskan infrastructure has minimal environmental impacts.National Academy of Engineering 03 American National Academies (Cumulative Environmental Effects of Oil and Gas Activities on Alaskas North Slope, 2003; < http://dels-old.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/north_slope_final.pdf>)//ABAlaskas North Slope is underlain by permafrost a thick layer of earth material that stays frozen year round. The permafrost is covered by a thin active layer that thaws each summer and supports plant growth for a brief period. If permafrost thaws, the ground surface and the structures it supports will settle. To minimize disruption to the ground surface, the North Slope industrial infrastructure is specially builtpipelines are generally elevated rather than buried, and roads and industrial facilities are raised on thick gravel berms. For a variety of reasons, nearly all of the roads, pads, pipelines and other infrastructure ever built are still in place. The environmental effects of such structures on the landscape, water systems, vegetation, and animals are manifest not only at the footprint itself (physical area covered by the structure) but also at distances that vary depending on the environmental component being affected. The petroleum industry continues to introduce technological innovations to reduce its footprint, for example, directional drilling and the use of ice roads and pads, drilling platforms, and new kinds of vehicles. For some areas of concern, the committee found no evidence that effects have accumulated. For example, despite widespread concern regarding the damaging effects of frequent oil and saltwater spills on the tundra, most spills to date have been small and have had only local effects. Moreover, damaged areas have recovered before they have been disturbed again. However, a large oil spill in marine waters would likely have substantial accumulating effects on whales and other receptors because current cleanup methods can remove only a small fraction of spilled oil, especially under conditions of broken ice.

Long-term effects of oil spills are minor.Gillis and Kaufman 10 Environmentalists and Contributors to the New York Times (Justin and Leslie, After Oil Spills, Hidden Damage Can Last for Years, 7/17/10; < http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/18/science/earth/18enviro.html?pagewanted=all>)//ABEvery oil spill is different, but the thread that unites these disparate scenes is a growing scientific awareness of the persistent damage that spills can do and of just how long oil can linger in the environment, hidden in out-of-the-way spots. At the same time, scientists who have worked to survey and counteract the damage from spills say the picture in the gulf is far from hopeless. Thoughts that this is going to kill the Gulf of Mexico are just wild overreactions, said Jeffrey W. Short, a scientist who led some of the most important research after the Exxon Valdez spill and now works for an environmental advocacy group called Oceana. Its going to go away, the oil is. Its not going to last forever. But how long will it last? Only 20 years ago, the conventional wisdom was that oil spills did almost all their damage in the first weeks, as fresh oil loaded with toxic substances hit wildlife and marsh grasses, washed onto beaches and killed fish and turtles in the deep sea. But disasters like the Valdez in 1989, the Ixtoc 1 in Mexico in 1979, the Amoco Cadiz in France in 1978 and two Cape Cod spills, including the Bouchard 65 barge in 1974 all studied over decades with the improved techniques of modern chemistry and biology have allowed scientists to paint a more complex portrait of what happens after a spill. It is still clear that the bulk of the damage happens quickly, and that nature then begins to recuperate. After a few years, a casual observer visiting a hard-hit location might see nothing amiss. Birds and fish are likely to have rebounded, and the oil will seem to be gone. But often, as Dr. Short and his team found in Alaska, some of it has merely gone underground, hiding in pockets where it can still do low-level damage to wildlife over many years.Econ Turn(this card also theoretically proves why their aff creates economic stimulus and jobs because they say infrastructure is key to these jobs)

Alaskan oil spill spurs economic growth empirically proven.Levine 10 Staff Writer for Alaska Dispatch (Thomas, Economics of an Oil Spill Cleanup, 6/27/10; < www.alaskadispatch.com/article/economics-oil-spill-cleanup>)//ABWhile fishermen and shrimpers in the Gulf of Mexico worry about losing their livelihoods, others may be on the verge of a windfall. Experts talk about how the ocean and the oil and gas industry will be impacted by BP's spill, but little attention has been paid to the economics of a spill cleanup. Some jobs will no doubt be lost because of the spill, but others will be created. Workers are now being hired all over the Gulf region to lay down boom, clean up oil, provide security, and prepare for further damages. Many of these workers are finding jobs in economies that were weak. Alaska was in a similar situation when the Exxon Valdez oil tanker hit Bligh Reef in 1989. Oils prices had slumped, and the Alaska economy was suffering. More than 20,000 jobs had been lost in 1986 and 1987. The economy was sputtering back to life by 1988, but it took off with the oil spill. No year since the spill has seen a larger growth rate in the Alaska economy than occurred in 1989, according to Neal Fried at the Alaska Department of Labor. The Gulf could see a similar boost. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist on June 17 unveiled a website directing Floridians to more than 3,500 jobs associated with the cleanup, although to this point the tens of thousands of gallons gushing from BP's undersea crude oil volcano have largely missed the Sunshine State. The Deepwater site has now gushed at least 42 million gallons, almost four times the 11 million gallons with which Exxon smeared Prince William Sound. Immediately after that accident, the call went out across Alaska for workers to help clean up and contain the spill. According to the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council website, 10,000 workers and 1,000 boats were mobilized at a cost of $2.1 billion. Spill cleanup workers made $16.69 an hour ($29.34 today, adjusted for inflation). Spill jobs helped pull Alaska's unemployment rate down from 7.2 percent in May 1989 to 6.9 percent in September 1989, when cleanup operations ended, according to the Alaska Department of Labor. And the amount of money spent to equip the cleanup operation created an economic wave that rippled through Alaska as fishing boats were leased, pilots hired, workers fed, equipment maintained and lawyers retained. Some lawyers had to hire additional staff to handle compensatory claims eventually totaling over $900 million. Most of those claims were paid off over the next 10 years. The spill jobs, while temporary, gave many people the means to put a down payment on a house or purchase a car. Fried said the increase in purchasing power helped pull the economy out of what had been the worst recession in 20 years. Some economic benefits have continued for decades. Scientific grants to study the damage to Prince William Sound have continued to this day, making the spill one of the most researched in history, according to the EVOSTC. And in 2008 Exxon settled punitive claims in the case Baker vs. Exxon Valdez Shipping Co. The company was required to pay fishermen and others another $995 million over 10 years.

Alt Cause(Do NOT read this with the National Academy of Engineering 03 Impact Defense card.)Arctic oil infrastructure itself will collapse marine ecology.ORourke 6/15 Specialist in Naval Affairs (Ronald, Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress, 6/15/12; < http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf>)//ABThe warming Arctic has focused attention on threats to its wildlife and ecosystems, and it is expected that increased oil, gas, and mineral exploration and development activities may also invite increased scrutiny of possible harm to the fragile Arctic ecosystems. Federal offshore programs are often the subject of this type of scrutiny, as demonstrated by litigation largely focusing on environmental impacts. For example, plaintiffs in cases challenging government approval of OCS development activity in the Chukchi Sea generally are local communities and national environmental groups. The defendant in litigation over federal leasing in the Alaska program areas is the Secretary of the Interior. Typically litigation over federal offshore programs in Alaska takes place in two venuesthe U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, and/or the U.S. District Court of the District of Alaska. The schedule for litigation can be an issue because the schedule in one venue has some bearing on rulings related to litigation in the other venue. A new schedule for litigation regarding OCS development in the Chukchi Sea is currently under consideration. The outcome of court cases will likely impact future development activities.Its not just the spills Oil extraction itself will collapse ecology. National Academy of Engineering 03 American National Academies (Cumulative Environmental Effects of Oil and Gas Activities on Alaskas North Slope, 2003; < http://dels-old.nas.edu/dels/rpt_briefs/north_slope_final.pdf>)//ABNorthern Alaskas environment and culture have already been significantly affected by oil infrastructure and activities. There have been many benefits to North Slope residents including more jobs and improved medical care and schools. These economic benefits have been accompanied by environmental and social consequences, including effects of the roads, infrastructure and activities of oil exploration and production on the terrain, plants, animals and peoples of the North Slope and the adjacent marine environment. Although a large body of research has assessed actual and potential effects of oil and gas activities and infrastructure, no integrated, comprehensive analysis of cumulative effects has previously been attempted. Cumulative effects can result from individually minor but collectively significant actions taking place over a period of time or within an area. In response to a request from Congress, the National Academies convened the Committee on Cumulative Environmental Effects of Oil and Gas Activities on Alaskas North Slope to assess probable cumulative effects of oil and gas activities on various receptorsthat is components of the physical, biological, and human systems of the region. The committees consensus report assesses both present and likely future cumulative effects on the North Slope and adjacent marine waters for the time period of 1965 to 2025 (in some cases to 2050).No cleanup measures most of the timedark waters and no open watersMurphy 11 (Kim Murphy, Los Angeles Times national editor, 8/4/2011, Arctic oil spill could prove tough to clean, http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/greenspace/2011/08/shell-arctic-drilling-oil-spill.html || Alice)

Shell Exploration's plan for exploratory oil and gas drilling in the Beaufort Sea won conditional approval from the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement. One of the big questions now is what happens if there's an oil spill. Agency officials are expected as early as next week to act on Shell's oil spill response plan, which conservationists say falls short of the mark for responding to an accident in icy waters, often shrouded in darkness, hundreds of miles from the nearest deep-water port. Earlier this month, Canada looked at the same issue: How hard would it be to clean up an oil spill in the Beaufort Sea, which straddles the border between the two countries. The answer? Really hard. Even in the "summer" season between July and October, when Arctic drilling normally occurs, true open water without ice occurs only 54% to 88% of the time, even close to shore, according to the report, prepared for the National Energy Board by S.L. Ross Environmental Research Ltd. of Ottawa. Conditions can be so bad that no ice cleanup measures are even possible about 20% of the time in June, 40% of the time in August and 65% of the time in October, said the report, which measured typical temperatures, wave heights and ice patterns and how they might prevent the use of such responses as in-situ burning, containment and application of dispersants. After October, any active response would almost certainly deferred until the following melt season, the report said. Canada, Norway and Russia are also studying offshore oil development in the Arctic, with Moscow earlier this year announcing plans to proceed with an exploration program in partnership with BP. "BOEMRE approval of Shell's drilling plan is silent as to the agency's assessment of Shell's oil spill plan. BOEMRE shouldn't have approved Shell's drilling plan without an adequate, approved oil spill plan demonstrating Shell's ability to clean up an oil spill in the Arctic's icy waters," a coalition of conservation groups, including the Alaska Wilderness League, the Sierra Club, Oceana and Defenders of Wildlife, among others, said in a statement. They said Shell's assertion that it can recover 95% of any oil spilled in Arctic waters using mechanical containment devices is unrealistic, given a much lower rate of recovery during the recent spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and assumes conditions in August, not October, "when ice, darkness and bad weather prevail.Arctic ice cant be cleaned upextreme cold conditions make techniques ineffectiveIMARES 5/1 (Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies at Wageningen University, a Netherlands research institute, 5/1/2014, Wageningen UR studies environmental effects of oil activities in the Arctic region, https://www.wageningenur.nl/en/newsarticle/Wageningen-UR-studies-environmental-effects-of-oil-activities-in-the-Arctic-region.htm || Alice)

Oil extraction in cold conditions is complex Compared to the North Sea oil exploitation in the Arctic region is much more difficult. This has partly to do with the poor accessibility of the immense area and limited infrastructure, such as ports and airports. In addition, conditions are often very challenging due to fog, snow, storms and prolonged darkness in winter. Moreover, the materials and techniques used in the extraction process must withstand extreme cold and ice. As a result, the risk of an oil spill in the large area around the Arctic is relatively high, the clean-up options are relatively limited and the possible consequences are long lasting for the unique flora and fauna such as polar bears, walruses and belugas. Oil is difficult to clean in cold conditions It is not yet known how an oil spill in the Arctic region can be cleaned up. In cold conditions, oil behaves differently than in the North Sea. The viscosity of oil is higher for example. Oil spill response techniques may be less effective or not effective at all. Dispersing agent, a kind of liquid soap that is used to mix oil with water, might work less effectively with low temperatures, viscous oil and the presence of ice. And what happens to the mixture of oil, dispersant and plankton? Will it drop to the sea floor? During the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico this spill response technique has been widely used. The consequence is a thick toxic layer on the seabed without any marine life. The visibility of oil in ice covered areas may be low. As a result the oil is hard to detect and to clean-up. Oil can also be transported to other locations together with the ice. Arctic cleanup too difficulttheir authors dont assume weather conditions and offseason drillingCBC 11 (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, 9/8/2011, Arctic oil spill cleanup would be badly hindered, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/arctic-oil-spill-cleanup-would-be-badly-hindered-1.1013220 || Alice)

Any response to a possible offshore oil spill in the Canadian Arctic would be severely hampered, even more so than previously thought, the World Wildlife Fund says. Thats because Arctic ice, lack of daylight, winds and temperatures make it extremely difficult to contain, burn off or disperse spilled oil, the conservation group writes in a filing to the National Energy Board. During the potential Arctic drilling season, it would be impossible to deploy an emergency oil-spill response up to 84 per cent of the time, the WWF filing says. "We're not against drilling per se, but what we are saying is that it shouldn't be done unless it can be done safely. And what these numbers provide is a very sobering reminder of just how little capacity we have to respond if something goes wrong," WWF program director Rob Powell said Thursday. The conservation group is participating in the National Energy Boards review of Arctic offshore drilling, undertaken in the wake of oil giant BPs offshore drilling disaster last year in the Gulf of Mexico, the second-worst marine oil spill in history. Oil companies like BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Imperial Oil have invested hundreds of millions of dollars to lease large tracts of Canadas Arctic seabed for exploration. As part of its review, the energy board, which regulates national petroleum and electricity projects in Canada, asked a consultant to look at how difficult it would be to clean up a potential oil spill in the Arctic. The consultants report submitted in July found that an emergency response to a spill would be impossible between 15 and 78 per cent of the time, due to weather and other environmental conditions. Figures understate real risks: WWF But the WWF says those numbers understate the difficulties that a possible cleanup would encounter: Oil companies acknowledge that they couldnt contain and recover oil from an Arctic spill of more than 100 barrels, the group says, which wasnt factored into the consultants report. The consultants numbers refer only to periods of open water during the drilling season, whereas drilling can legally continue in those months even when significant ice cover on Arctic seas would make countering an oil spill impossible. The consultant didnt consider the effects of wind chill. Canada hasnt approve the use of substances called chemical herders in an Arctic oil spill, yet the consultants report assumes they could be used to help with cleanup. Taking those factors into account, cleanup efforts would be impossible at least 44 per cent and up to 84 per cent of the drilling season, depending on location and month, the WWF says.Response efforts hindered by extreme weather and low visibilityEconomist 12 (The Economist, 12/1/2012, Trouble beneath the ice, http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21567196-energy-technology-oil-exploration-moves-arctic-new-methods-are-being || Alice)

AN OIL WELL suffers a blowout, causing a fatal explosion on an offshore platform. Oil spews into the water at an estimated rate of 53,000 barrels a day. Company executives and government officials blame each other as they try to find a way to stop the flow of oil. The Deepwater Horizon disaster of 2010 was a tragedy in many respects, but in one detail, BPthe operator of the well, which is now facing a bill of as much as $50 billionwas lucky. At least it could find the oil. As more and more companies venture into the oil- and gas-rich waters north of the Arctic Circle, they are being forced to imagine another oil-spill scenario, one in which the response effort is impeded by storms, fog, high winds and massive drifting ice floes; in which visibility is minimal, where the nearest coast guard station is over 1,000 miles away and where spilled oil accumulates on, in and under the ice. Such considerations have led to the development of new technologies to detect and deal with spilled oil in remote, icy seas. In open water conditions such as those in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater Horizon spill, the primary method for oil-spill detection involves satellite-mounted synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). This technology, which can see through clouds and in the dark, involves bouncing radio waves from orbiting satellites off the surface of the sea. Any oil floating on the surface has the effect of smoothing the waves made by the wind on the water. Admittedly, it is almost impossible to tell the difference between an oil slick and a patch of calm water. But at least clean-up teams have some idea of where to start more detailed searches. In the Arctic, however, SAR is less useful. One problem is that floating ice looks just like oil or calm water to a SAR-equipped satellite. According to Rune Storvold of the Northern Research Institute, a Norwegian research outfit, SAR-based oil detection is only effective in conditions with less than 30% ice coverage.

Safety Precautions nowSpill prevention in place nowThe Dallas Morning News 12 (The Associated Press. "U.S. Finalizes Offshore Drilling Rules Inspired by BP Oil Spill." The Dallas Morning News. N.p., 15 Aug. 2012. Web. 01 Aug. 2014. . XM)The safety measures are intended to make sure oil flow can be stopped if there are problems. They deal with how the wells are designed, and how the cement and barriers used to secure them are tested. The rules also require that blowout preventers, which failed in the 2010 disaster, be independently tested by a third party to ensure they are capable of cutting off the flow of oil. Todays action builds on the lessons learned from the Deepwater Horizon tragedy and is part of the administrations all-of-the-above energy strategy to expand safe and responsible development of Americas domestic energy resources, Jim Watson, director of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, said in a statement.Shell solving problems nowLA Times 10 (LA Times. "Shell Outlines Precautions for Offshore Arctic Drilling." Los Angeles Times. N.p., 17 May 2010. Web. . XM)Shell Oil Co. is making its best case for why drilling in the offshore Arctic can be done with fewer potential problems than what confronted BP in the Gulf of Mexico. In a detailed response to the federal Minerals Management Service's request for more assurances, Shell promises to deploy near the drilling sites in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas a prefabricated coffer dam capable of containing a blowout -- this time, unlike the dome that failed in the Gulf of Mexico, a device designed to avoid a buildup of ice crystals.Laundry list of measures Shell has put into place to solve the problemLA Times 10 (LA Times. "Shell Outlines Precautions for Offshore Arctic Drilling." Los Angeles Times. N.p., 17 May 2010. Web. . XM)Read further for other measures Shell said it has put into place after examining the Gulf of Mexico incident: Those measures include: --Reservoirs will be carefully evaluated for pressure, fluid content and temperature before full-scale coring gets underway in a bypass hole, reducing the risk of a "kick" or unwanted flow in the original wellbore. --Testing of the blowout preventers will be conducted every seven days, instead of every 14 days. --A subsea remote operating panel will be installed on top of the blow out preventers that can be operated manually by divers or a remote-controlled submarine in case it doesn't work automatically. --The company will be prepared to apply dispersant underwater, at the source of any oil fill, but only if it obtains the necessary emergency permits. Shell emphasized there are important differences between exploration in Alaska and in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico: --Instead of drilling in 5,000 feet of water to a depth of 18,000 feet, as with BP's Deepwater Horizon well, Shell will be drilling in 150 feet of water, at a depth of up to 8,000 feet in the Chukchi and up to 10,200 feet in the Beaufort. --The pressure encountered is expected to be much less than that found in the Gulf well, probably no more than 6,000 psi, compared to about 15,000 psi in the Gulf. Arctic comparatively safer and less risky to drill inLA Times 10 (LA Times. "Shell Outlines Precautions for Offshore Arctic Drilling." Los Angeles Times. N.p., 17 May 2010. Web. . XM)"Our biggest safety advantage is the water depth that will allow us to detect and respond to an event quickly and appropriately," Shell said, and even in the case of the failure of a drilling riser, the remaining fluid below the seafloor "would effectively stop any well flow in such a low-pressure system." Recent industry studies have shown that in some cases, cold water temperatures and ice such as exists in the Arctic for long parts of the year could actually help contain spilled oil and make it easier to clean up.Migratory birds spread diseaseMigratory birds spread diseaseCornell n.d. (Cornell University. "All About Birds." Migration and the Spread of Disease. N.p., n.d. Web. 31 July 2014. . XM)Migration and the spread of disease Migratory birds can play a role in the spread of infectious diseases. Their ability to travel over long distances and through a variety of habitats exposes them to a wide range of microorganisms. In most cases they have developed natural immunities and the risks posed by exposure to disease is limited. In a few rare cases, however, the birds are exposed to diseases for which they have no immunity. This can be caused by the introduction of new pathogens within their ranges or mutation of an existing pathogen. The introduction of West Nile Virus into North America is a recent example of a disease that was not particularly dangerous to birds or people within its historic range. Once it moved to North America, where it was not previously known, birds and mammals without a natural immunity were placed at risk. Thousands of birds have died from West Nile Virus and the long-term effects are still unknown. While the disease spread rapidly across North America, its spread was slowed by cold winter weather, which temporarily eliminates mosquito populations. There is great concern on the long-term affects of West Nile Virus as migratory birds carry the disease to their tropical winter homes. There is no known natural resistance to West Nile Virus in Central and South American bird species. The situation might be significantly worse than in North America as mosquitoes have a year round presence in the tropics. Migratory birds spread diseaseFuller et.al. 12 (Fuller, Trevon is a postdoctoral researcher at the Center for Tropical Research at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California, Los Angeles., Staffan Bensch- is on Malaria Research Coordination Network, Inge Muller, John Novembre-PhD (Integrative Biology), University of California-Berkeley, 2006 BA (Biochemistry), The Colorado College, 2000, Javier Perez-Tris-Professor of Zoology (Vertebrate Biology and Conservation Group - Complutense University of Madrid), Robert E. Ricklefs-urators' Professor of Biology Department of Biology, University of Missouri, Thomas B. Smith-DirectorCenter for Tropical Research UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. , and Jonas Waldenstrom-Linnaeus University, Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial model Systems. The Ecology of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Migratory Birds: An Assessment of the Role of Climate Change and Priorities for Future Research. Vol. 9. N.p.: EcoHealth, March 2012. Print. Ser. 1. XM)Pathogens that are maintained by wild birds occasionally jump to human hosts, causing considerable loss of life and disruption to global commerce. Preliminary evidence suggests that climate change and human movements and commerce may have played a role in recent range expansions of avian pathogens. Since the magnitude of climate change in the coming decades is predicted to exceed climatic changes in the recent past, there is an urgent need to determine the extent to which climate change may drive the spread of disease by avian migrants. In this review, we recommend actions intended to mitigate the impact of emergent pathogens of migratory birds on biodiversity and public health. Increased surveillance that builds upon existing bird banding networks is required to conclusively establish a link between climate and avian pathogens and to prevent pathogens with migratory bird reservoirs from spilling over to humans.Sea Otters spread diseaseSea otters cause disease spreadBatac 12 (Batac, Francesca-California Department of Fish and Game. "Did You Know Sea Otters Can Transmit Diseases to Humans?"Seaotters.com. N.p., 25 June 2012. Web. 01 Aug. 2014. . XM)The obvious dangers of working with wild animals like sea otters are bites and scratches. Sea otters have powerful jaws that can cause deep wounds, bone fractures or infection. Some species of bacteria that are commonly isolated from sea otters can cause severe wound infections when implanted in bite wounds or scratches. There is also a risk of catching a zoonotic disease (a disease that is transferable from animals to humans) from handling live or dead sea otters. An example of a zoonotic disease that most people are familiar with is rabies. Rabies has never been reported from sea otters, but they are certainly susceptible to this virus, and rabies cases have been reported from river otters. In addition to infection through skin wounds, humans can become infected with zoonotic organisms by inhaling aerosolized droplets containing the organisms, through splashes in their eyes or by accidentally consuming infectious organisms after touching contaminated materials, such as blood, urine or fecal matter. Some important zoonotic organisms that are known to infect sea otters include the single-celled parasite Toxoplasma gondii, the marine Brucella bacteria and the fungus Coccidioides immitis. C. immitis infection causes the disease Valley Fever in humans. Human infection with this fungus can be serious, so we are extremely careful when handling these cases. Luckily we only see a small number of infected sea otters every year. We call C. immitis-infected otters Cocci cases As soon as we recognize them we take extra precautions. Based on the experience of working in a necropsy (postmortem examination) setting for many years, well describe the protective measures we take during postmortem examinations of stranded sea otters. Basic personnel protective equipment (PPE) worn during all routine necropsies consist of a scrub top and pants, tall rubber necropsy boots, gloves, eye protection, and a waterproof apron. When necropsying an otter that might have a zoonotic disease, we also use a face mask, sometimes even one with a HEPA filter. We are also trained to use a full-face respirator, or use a safety hood for additional protection, when needed. We complete postmortem examinations on potential Cocci cases quickly and then freeze the carcass to reduce our risk of aerosol exposure to this fungus. When the tissue form of C. immitis is exposed to the air for a prolonged period (1-2 days) it can form a stage that can be more easily inhaled, triggering infection. We also collect any fluids and tissues for incineration to prevent further transmission of the fungus. When cleaning, water pressure is lowered to prevent fungal splashing or aerosolization. All surfaces are disinfected and the necropsy instruments are scrubbed and autoclaved (steam sterilized) as a further precaution. Scrub tops, pants and aprons are washed immediately. This helps prevent cross-contamination and helps to protect staff health. Numerous factors help the necropsy staff determine if a given sea otter may be a high risk for zoonotic disease. For example, because most Cocci cases are collected along the shoreline of San Luis Obispo County, we are extra-careful when handling any otters that are found sick or dead in this region. When performing the necropsy, potential abnormalities that can suggest the presence of a zoonotic organism include swollen lymph nodes, an enlarged and/or spotted spleen or liver, pneumonia, pleuritis (inflammation in the chest cavity), lung masses or the presence of abscesses, inflamed joints or reproductive abnormalities. If these are present, it is best to conduct further tests. We can quickly examine tissue or fluid smears on a microscope to scan for the fungus (cytology), try to grow the organisms in the laboratory (microbiology), or examine wax-embedded tissue sections (histology) to help determine if an otter died from C. immitis or some other potentially zoonotic disease. CDFG biologists recover approximately 2-4 C. immitis-infected sea otters each year. The route by which sea otters are exposed to Coccidioides is not known, but is believed to be an example of land-to-sea biological pollution as the organism originates from alkaline soils. It appears that this fungus-contaminated soil either blows out to sea or flows downstream to the ocean, thus affecting sea life. Depending on the state of the infection, the spores of Cocci can also be aerosolized and inhaled by humans. Freezing the infected otter or its tissues will not kill the fungus, even in -80C. In addition, bones, fur or other samples collected from infected animals as souvenirs can transmit this fungus to humans. According to the Center of Disease Control and Prevention-Department of Health and Human Services, C. immitis infection can pose a severe threat to human health. Because of this concern, we incinerate the carcasses of all sea otters with known or suspected C. immitis infection. In summary, the potential for human exposure to zoonotic organisms like Coccidioides immitis during wildlife conservation efforts cannot be taken lightly. When officials ask the public not to touch, harass or feed wildlife, they are trying to protect the health and well-being of both animals and humans. Our training, knowledge, and experience help minimize our risk of exposure to zoonotic pathogens. So please enjoy the sea otters from the safe viewing distance of 50 yards (150 feet) on land and 100 yards (300 feet) on water per the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972. And please leave handling of sick or dead marine wildlife to trained personnel. Thank you!Disease spread -> ExtinctionDisease spread risks extinction.Skelding 10(Julia Skielding- University of Toronto Clinical Ethics Fellow, contributions from Ross Upshur (also at Toronto), SARS, Pandemics and Public Health, The Integrated Assessment Journal 10.1, 2010, p41-50, http://journals.sfu.ca/int_assess/index.php/iaj/article/viewFile/291/254, accessed 3-24-12)Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are newly or previously identified diseases that are increasing in incidence or changing in geographic range (Lederberg et al., 1992). Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza are two of the most prominent recent examples of such diseases. It has been apparent for the better part of two decades that a host of interacting factors are causally linked to this emergence, including ecological changes, changes in human demographics and behaviour (particularly the explosion of air travel in the past twenty years), technology, and industry, and microbial adaptation and change. More importantly, deficiencies in public health infrastructure coupled with globalization have diminished the capacity of public health systems to respond adequately to the threat of infectious diseases. Authoritative scholars have issued warnings about viral emergence and detailed the steps necessary for civilization to respond. These seemingly dire and apocalyptic warnings have, in fact, come partly true. The emergence of infectious disease is an enduring aspect of human existence, one neglected at our peril.Specifically, zoonotic diseases (diseases transferred from animal to human) lead to extinctionCasadevall 12 Prof @ Department of Microbiology and Immunology and the Division of Infectious Diseases of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine Arturo. (The future of biological warfare, Microbial Biotechnology, p. 584-5)In considering the importance of biological warfare as a subject for concern it is worthwhile to review the known existential threats. At this time this writer can identify at three major existential threats to humanity: (i) large-scale thermonuclear war followed by a nuclear winter, (ii) a planet killing asteroid impact and (iii) infectious disease. To this trio might be added climate change making the planet uninhabitable. Of the three existential threats the first is deduced from the inferred cataclysmic effects of nuclear war. For the second there is geological evidence for the association of asteroid impacts with massive extinction (Alvarez, 1987). As to an existential threat from microbes recent decades have provided unequivocal evidence for the ability of certain pathogens to cause the extinction of entire species. Although infectious disease has traditionally not been associated with extinction this view has changed by the finding that a single chytrid fungus was responsible for the extinction of numerous amphibian species (Daszak et al., 1999; Mendelson et al., 2006). Previously, the view that infectious diseases were not a cause of extinction was predicated on the notion that many pathogens required their hosts and that some proportion of the host population was naturally resistant. However, that calculation does not apply to microbes that are acquired directly from the environment and have no need for a host, such as the majority of fungal pathogens. For those types of hostmicrobe interactions it is possible for the pathogen to kill off every last member of a species without harm to itself, since it would return to its natural habitat upon killing its last host. Hence, from the viewpoint of existential threats environmental microbes could potentially pose a much greater threat to humanity than the known pathogenic microbes, which number somewhere near 1500 species (Cleaveland et al., 2001; Tayloret al., 2001), especially if some of these species acquired the capacity for pathogenicity as a consequence of natural evolution or bioengineering.

ShippingMapping is a pre-requisite

Plan cant resolve Mapping which is critical to US Arctic Maritime Domain AwarenessPerry and Andersen, 12 (Charles and Bobby, vice president and director of studies at the IFPA, research analyst at IFPA, 2012, The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, NEW STRATEGIC DYNAMICS in the ARCTIC REGION, Implications for National Security and International Collaboration, http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/StrategicDynamicsArcticRegion.pdf/, AS)One key capability gap that will likely continue to hamper Arctic operations in the coming decades is in maritime domain awareness in the polar region. MDA the effective ability of U.S. forces to locate, identify, and track vessels or any other activity in the maritime domain that could affect national secu- rity interests remains extremely limited, largely because of the remoteness of the region, inadequate Arctic Ocean and weather data, lack of communication and nav- igation infrastructure, insufficient intelligence informa- tion, and the lack of a consistent U.S. government presence in the High North.327 Given the very limited sensor cover- age of the area, great distances from main bases, and harsh, rapidly changing atmospheric conditions, even collecting and maintaining a basic awareness of other ships, subma- rines, and aircraft in the Arctic becomes a nearly impos- sible task.328 Not long after the start of the Coast Guards 2008 summer deployment in the polar region, for instance, District 17 officials based in Alaska complained of a wor- rying lack of Arctic domain awareness that severely con- strained the services ability to fully understand the risks of operating in or monitoring the icy waters around Alaska and beyond. As a senior U.S. Coast Guard official pointed out after the agencys 2008 operations, We had almost no idea, no maritime domain awareness, of what was actual- ly happening on the waters of the Arctic.329 A major impediment to achieving better domain aware- ness in the High North is the current lack of accurate data or Arctic navigation, including nautical charts for areas previously covered by ice, shoreline mapping, tides, water levels, currents, sea-ice conditions, and meteorological information. Experts agree that there is still very little knowledge about the Arctics unique and ever-changing ocean patterns, especially since only less than 5 percent of the polar area has been mapped to current standards.330 Nautical charts of the Alaska region, for example, are of low resolution and mostly based on soundings from the 1940s or 1950s, showing vast areas that have not been surveyed using modern instrumentation or have never been surveyed at all.331 The problem of producing reli- able nautical charts for the Arctic is further compounded by Americas insufficient number of hydrographic sur- vey vessels and their limited capability when it comes to operating in and around the ice.332 The lack of real-time information on weather, ocean conditions, and ice char- acterization (for example, depth or thickness) has had a particularly negative effect on the Coast Guards ability to conduct routine and emergency missions in the polar region, as smaller pieces of sea ice are frequently missed by current technology, posing a significant threat to most ships observed in the area, including the Coast Guards fleet of non-icebreaking boats. For their part, icebreakers attempting to operate in the deeper reaches of the Arctic Ocean are themselves extremely vulnerable to so-called sea-ice pressure ridges, formed when massive sheets of ice collide with one another, and in the absence of reliable data, even experienced mariners may be unable to suf- ficiently assess the deceptive appearance of sea ice, as illustrated by Coast Guard cutter Healys experience dur- ing its summer 2008 operations off Barrow, Alaska, when it struck what to the crew appeared to be thin, first-year ice only to discover that it was a fifteen-foot thick ice- berg of multi-year ice, well beyond the ships icebreaking capabilities.333Plan cant solve mapping which is key to navigation of the Arctic.GAO, 14 (Government Accountability Office, March 2014, MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE Key Issues Related to Commercial Activity in the U.S. Arctic over the Next Decade, http://gao.gov/assets/670/661761.pdf, AS)

The USCG is conducting a Waterway Analysis and Management System assessment along the western and northern coasts of Alaska in order to understand the extent and type of aids to navigation needed; however, officials we spoke with indicated that there were no current plans to expand deployment of aids to navigation in the Arctic region. According to federal government sources, there are a number of challenges to such deployment in the Arctic. First, hydrographic surveying and mapping must be completed before the USCG can install aids to navigation in an area, and as noted in table 3, a large amount of the U.S. Arctic remains uncharted or mapped.40 The USCG is currently in the preliminary phase of a new polar-icebreaker acquisition project including development of a formal mission need statement, a concept of operations, and an operational requirements document. Second, aids to navigation are particularly challenging to operate north of the Bering Strait due to the freeze-thaw cycle and likelihood of sustaining damage from floating sea ice. Mapping enables us to have Arctic operations allows safe maneuvering of ships.Kendrick 14 (Kendrick, Lyle-Reporter at Barents Observer. "Map Shortcomings Could Hinder Northern Sea Route Growth."Barentsobserver. N.p., 28 June 2014. Web. 16 July 2014. . XM)

Melting ice allowed the region to open up shipping routes in Arctic waters that are mostly under Russian control and cut significant transit time between Europe and Asia. Use of the route has steadily grown since ships began using it in 2010. According to data from the Northern Sea Route Administration, four vessels used the route in 2010, 34 used it in 2011, 46 used it in 2012 and 71 used it last year. China will be releasing a guide to Arctic shipping in July for ships sailing through the Northern Sea Route to Europe. But the current weak satellites in the area and poor sea maps are like bottlenecks preventing the kind of massive Arctic transit speculated by some, said Jan-Gunnar-Winther, director of the Norwegian Polar Institute, to the BarentsObserver. Satellite communication with ships in the High North is weak which means ship operators cannot adequately take real-time high-resolution images for other vessels to use, Winther said. These kinds of images give information about sea conditions which allow efficient and safe maneuvering in water that is partly covered in ice, he said. The area is particularly dangerous to navigate without sufficient mapping data because there is limited infrastructure for search and rescue operations. Vessels are safest on the route when following icebreakers which can help navigate frozen Arctic patches and be a first line of support in a search and rescue operation, said Gunnar Sander, an Arctic sea ice researcher with the Norwegian Polar Institute, to the BarentsObserver. Territorial DisputesNorthwest Passage inaccessible due to lack of infrastructure and territorial dispute.Byers 13 (Byers, Michael is professor of Global Politics and International Law at the University of British Columbia. "How the Arctic Ocean Could Transform World Trade." Aljazeera. N.p., 27 Aug. 2013. Web. 31 July 2014. . XM)US-Canada dispute Shipping through the Northwest Passage has also increased, but at a slower rate. In 2012, there were a total of 30 transits, none of which involved large cargo ships or tankers sailing to other countries. This is at least partly due to the Canadian government's lack of investment in its northern infrastructure, and its failure to provide icebreaking services for commercial vessels. Further complicating the situation, the US opposes Canada's claim that the Northwest Passage constitutes "internal waters" which foreign ships require permission to enter. Instead, the US insists the waterway is an "international strait" through which foreign ships may pass without constraint. However, on the two occasions that US ships have sailed the Northwest Passage without seeking permission, they either accepted assistance from a Canadian icebreaker or agreed the voyage would not affect the legal dispute. In 1988, the two countries agreed that the US would always seek permission for transits by its coastguard icebreakers, which Canada would then always grant. Still, the US-Canada dispute casts a cloud of uncertainty over the Northwest Passage that, until resolved or otherwise clarified, will contribute to keeping international shipping away.Disputes over the northwest passage prevent arctic tradeDufresne 08 (Dufresne, Robert-International Affairs, Trade and Finance Division. "Canada and the United States: Arctic Sovereignty." Parliament of Canada. N.p., Dec. 2008. Web. 31 July 2014. . XM)Canada and the United States disagree on the legal status of the Northwest Passage, a maritime path connecting the Davis Strait and Baffin Bay in the east to the Bering Strait in the west. Canada considers that the waters of the Northwest Passage are internal waters; the United States claims that the Passage is an international strait. Which qualification prevails has implications for the rights and powers of Canada as a coastal state. States are fully sovereign in internal waters: they can regulate activities and enforce their laws therein, and foreign states and ships enjoy no maritime rights under international law. By contrast, foreign states and ships enjoy a right of transit through international straits, meaning that they would not have to request Canadas permission to navigate the Passage if it were considered to be an international strait. Canada invokes two alternative legal bases in support of its position: the waters are internal (1) by virtue of historic title, and/or (2) by virtue of their being on the landward side of straight baselines drawn around the entire Arctic Archipelago in 1985. For the most part, the former basis is considered by experts to be weak, whereas the latter is regarded as compelling in international law. Moreover, it has been suggested that the increased US concern for continental security might lead the United States to regard Canadian sovereignty over the Passage as more palatable, especially if accompanied by proper policing by Canada. The United States has not, however, altered its formal view on this matter. The US argument that the Passage is an international strait entails that the Passage meets geographical and functional requirements, i.e., that it is a water corridor linking two bodies of the high seas or other waters, and used for international maritime traffic. Some observers consider the US argument to be weak, given that the Passage has seldom been used for international traffic. However, an increase in maritime traffic through the Passage, which climate change could facilitate, could raise the possibility of its gradual internationalization. A third option would be to consider the North-west Passage part of Canadas territorial waters, rather than an international strait or internal waters enclosed within Canadas straight baselines. This would give foreign states the right of innocent passage.Free Trade Does Not Solve WarGlobalization increases the propensity for war- nation polarization, autocratic backlash, an proliferation of increasingly powerful weapons.Echevarria, Director of Research @ Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 2003[LTC Antulio J. Echevarria II, March, GLOBALIZATION AND THE NATURE OF WAR, Strategic Studies Institute, ISBN 1-58487-118-0, chip]Despite its apparent positive impact on the spread of democracy and free-market economies, globalization might produce a more dangerous and unpredictable world, especially if the cultural backlash it has generated thus far gathers more momentum. This world might be characterized by shifting power relationships, ad hoc security arrangements, and an ever-widening gap between the richest and poorest nations.8 A number of new democracieslacking strong traditions for maintaining checks and balancesmight, for example, collapse after only transitory successes. Transnational threats, such as international crime syndicates, terrorist networks, and drug cartels, could continue to grow in strength and influence, thriving among autocratic, weak, or so-called failed states. And, ethnic rivalries, nationalism, religiousbased antagonisms, and competition for scarce resources, including water, could go unresolved. Thus, serious crises would undoubtedly arise, especially as the worlds population continues to grow. On the other hand, globalization could give rise to a more stable world in which national interests merge into the general aim of promoting peace, stability, and economic prosperity.9 In this world, the rule of law and the existence of pluralistic political systems would continue to spread; and the number of free-market economies would expand, distributing economic prosperity still further. Even if this Utopia should materialize, a number of crisessome of which will undoubtedly require military interventionwill most likely have had to occur beforehand, since most autocratic regimes will probably not surrender power without a fight. Moreover, as the 1999 Kosovo crisis demonstrated, even relatively small states armed primarily with conventional weapons can pose significant security challenges to a superpower and its strategic partners.10 The world need not devolve into a clash of civilizations or a coming anarchy, therefore, in order for military power to continue to play a significant role in the future.11 In any case, globalization will surely continue and may even accelerate if data concerning the rate of technological change are any indication.12 As numerous studies and strategic papers have pointed out, globalization is already changing how wars are being fought in the 21st century, making them more dangerous than in any previous era.13 At a minimum, the greater mobility of people, things, and ideas will mean increased mobility for nonstate actors, weapons of mass destruction, and radical fundamentalism of all types. In fact, the U.S. Department of State currently reports that more than 60 active terrorist groups exist (with some 100,000 members); and over one-third of them have the capacity for global reach.14 Furthermore, todays terrorists have proven very adaptive, learning from previous generations, and changing their tactics in response to new anti-terrorist measures.15 Globalization clearly offers them some extraordinary capabilities to communicate and coordinate their efforts. Globalization also facilitates the proliferation of destabilizing capabilities, such as weapons of mass destruction or mass effect. Eleven countries currently have nuclear weapons programs; thirteen more are actively seeking them.16 More than 25 countries now possess ballistic missiles, and over 75,000 cruise missiles are in existence, with the number expected to rise to between 80,000 and 90,000 by 2010.17 Also, at least 17 countries including the so-called Axis of Evilcurrently have active chemical and biological weapons programs, and the number is rising.18 As the Assistant Secretary of State for Non-proliferation recently explained, despite the provisions of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and the Chemical and Biological Weapons conventions, proliferation of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high explosive/high yield weapons continues worldwide: There is an intense sort of cooperation that goes on among countries that are trying to acquire such weapons.19 For example, China and North Korea have long contributed to the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons, both for strategic leverage against the United States and for economic advantages.20 Thus, globalization assists some powerful motives that run counter to nonproliferation efforts. Biological weapons, especially, pose a serious threat not only to human populations, but also to agriculture and livestock. Unfortunately, U.S. crops lack genetic diversity, rendering them vulnerable to disease. Furthermore, the nations centralized feeding and marketing practices make livestock extremely vulnerable to a biological attack. If such an attack were to occur, a devastating ripple effect would surely spread throughout the global economy since the United States produces 30-50 percent of the worlds foodstuffs.21 Globalization has also introduced a new form of warfare: cyber-war. More than 30 countriesincluding Russia, China, and several so-called rogue stateshave developed or are developing the capability to launch strategic-level cyber attacks.22 The interconnectedness of many nations infrastructures means that a successful cyber attack against a single sector in one country could result in adverse effects in other sectors within the same country, or those of its neighbors. Indeed, intended (and unintended) adverse effects could well travel globally.23

Globalization lowers the threshold for war, states fight to protect their economic interestEchevarria, Director of Research @ Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 2003[LTC Antulio J. Echevarria II, March, GLOBALIZATION AND THE NATURE OF WAR, Strategic Studies Institute, ISBN 1-58487-118-0, chip]The war against Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups of global reach represents the first conflict of the 21st century in which the characteristics of globalizationthe enhanced mobility of people, things, and ideashave come into play. It is certainly a war that neither side can afford to lose. The political objectives of the combatants reflect that realization, even if neither side has fully mobilized all of its forces to date. Sources indicate that, even though it is not necessarily bent on the immediate total destruction of the United States, Al Qaeda will never compromise and will continue to fight until all religious apostasy is eliminated, all illegitimate or corrupt Islamic regimes are replaced by a unified Muslim polity and Caliphate, and all infidels are driven from Muslim holy lands. 48 The United States is seen as a major source of support for apostatic regimes and, hence, weakening it politically and economically is essential for success. In order to ensure ultimate success, however, it might be necessary to have a final showdown with the great Satan. For its part, the United States will not accept anything less than the complete neutralization, if not destruction, of Al Qaeda. Contrary to what historians such as Martin van Creveld have argued, therefore, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the emergence of powerful nonstate actors, such as Al Qaeda, do not mean the end of decisive warfare or of major wars among states.49 Instead, we find a general shift toward less overt and more protracted forms of conflict, while, at the same time, major powers such as the United States emphasize a greater willingness to take unilateral preemptive action or to respond to attacks involving weapons of mass destruction in any manner deemed appropriate, to include massive retaliation against major states.50 Moreover, instead of culture displacing politics as the primary force behind conflict, globalization has actually increased the latters role, both in determining the purpose for and influencing the actual conduct of war. Both President George W. Bush and terrorist leader Osama bin Laden have released statements that link their actions to very explicit political agendas. Both are clearly using war to achieve political ends, rather than to satisfy a cultural impulse to wage war, as Keegan argues. To be sure, culture and politics are inextricably linked in this conflict. Al Qaedas leadership might have sought to provoke a massive U.S. military response to the attacks of September 11, which it could then portray as an assault on Islam. This general assault, it was hoped, would inspire the entire Islamic world to rise up against the West.51 Indeed, the West, conscious of this possibility, has taken great pains to portray the conflict as a war against terror tactics rather than a war against Islam. And, it must continue to do so. Otherwise, the conflict between Al Qaeda and the West may indeed escalate into a more dangerous clash of civilizations. Nonetheless, the fact remains that both sides are using war as a political instrument, that is, they are subordinating its conduct to the achievement of political ends. Political leaders on both sides can also have real-time access to military actions as they unfold, though one would hope that in the case of Al Qaeda the access would be less secure.52 Still, both sides can more or less communicate their intentions to their operatives in the field and thus influence the course of events throughout every phase of a military operation, no matter where it occurs. This capability means that political direction of a campaign can span time and distance to influence the smallest of details, not that it should. Moreover, the public statements by President Bush and bin Ladens periodic releases of video messages through Al Jazeera demonstrate that each can address his support base to give it guidance or motivation, or to garner further support, while at the same time challenging or vexing his opponents. Hence, the conflict remains thoroughly political at every level and, thus far at least, throughout every operational phase. Furthermore, this trend does not appear likely to reverse itself.In the global war on terrorism, the element of blind natural force is playing the decisive role. Globalization has, among other things, contributed to the creation of fertile breeding grounds for terrorism as some groups try to resist its encroachment. Al Qaeda has associated the United States with the spread of globalization, which it sees as a form of decadence. Building on the perception that Islamic societys current political and economic problems are the result of the Wests decadent values and duplicitous policies, Al Qaeda has penetrated Islamic nongovernmental organizations and woven itself into the social, political, and religious fabric of Muslim societies. Consequently, it has managed to create a substantial support base that may enable it to regenerate itself indefinitely.53 Despite the arrest of hundreds of operatives in North America and abroad since the attacks of September 11, 2001, for example, Al Qaeda has created new cells and reconstituted older ones.54 While operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere have led to the killing or capture of some 16 of its 25 key leaders, Al Qaedas ideology remains intact and will probably continue to draw young Muslims.55 Evidence also suggests that Muslim extremism, or Islamism as some authorities identify it, has been moving from the margins of the Islamic political spectrum toward the center, so that bin Laden and other key terrorist leaders may enjoy considerable empathy, if not sympathy, regarding their words and actions.56 The Islamists mindset is that the current war is one in which Gods warriorsthe mujahidinare heroically fighting the forces of Satan: U.S. troops.57 In this war, civilian populations of both sides are more than a manifestation or a reservoir of blind natural force. They have become the primary target in both a physical and a psychological sense for Al Qaeda and a psychological sense for the United States. With what has been described as a virus-like ability to infect indigenous groups, Al Qaeda has turned itself into an ideological weapon that evidently excels in the generation of propaganda to support its cause.58 By comparison, the U.S. populace, which lacked any deep-seated feelings of hostility prior to September 11, 2001, is now being psychologically prepared (one can argue how well) by its political leadership for a long fight in which conditions might get worse particularly if an attack on Iraq or other rogue states occursbefore they get better. Indeed, some of the current political rhetoric of the administration and its supporters likens the war against terrorism to World War IV.59 In other words, the war against global terrorism is foremost a battle of ideasideas powerful enough to provoke violent emotions. Consequently, it is within this arena that the war will be won or lost.Globalization decreases escalation managementEchevarria, Director of Research @ Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, 2003[LTC Antulio J. Echevarria II, March, GLOBALIZATION AND THE NATURE OF WAR, Strategic Studies Institute, ISBN 1-58487-118-0, chip]If the war on terrorism is any guide, globalization is changing the nature of war in several ways. First, it is strengthening the role that politics will play in war by affording it the capability to exert greater real-time control over military operations. Of course, this control will vary depending on the personalities involved as well as a combatants ability to interdict its opponents communications. Second, globalization is increasing the criticality of the element of hostility. Political leaders can now mobilize hostile passions more quickly and over a larger area than hitherto, particularly in areas suffering from the spread of globalization. Images and the ideas they convey may now be more decisive than the sword. Yet, it may prove more difficult to cool such passions than it did to ignite them. Finally, globalization means that opponents (even if they are neighbors) can now fight each other across global distances, in new dimensions, and with a broader array of weapons. These changes may amount to a net increase in the dual element of chance and uncertainty at all levels of war. It remains to be seen whether information technology will reduce or exacerbate this expansion. Certainly, skillful commanders and well-trained militaries still matter. Yet, as has been shown, even with the rapidly spreading and intensifying effects of globalization, war remains essentially Clausewitzian in nature. It is still a dynamic expression of political wills in conflict, colliding via the means of organized violence with multinational populations serving both as resources and as targets. The forces of Islamic terrorism are fueled by volatile extremist ideas and, hence, the global war on terrorism remains at heart a conflict of opposing ideas. The United States and its strategic partners must take the fight to the enemy on that front and win there decisively.

Free trade causes military conflicts to open markets and gain resourcesMcDonald, associate professor in international relations theory and international political economy @ UT Austin, 2004[Patrick J. McDonald, Aug., 2004, Peace through Trade or Free Trade?, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 547-572, Sage Publications, http://www.jstor.org/stable/4149808, chip]By focusing on the aggregate benefits of commerce, most variants of commercial liberalism risk assuming that all individuals within society receive income gains from trade and that these same individuals will lobby their government to enact a peaceful foreign policy to realize these economic goals. As the political influence of the beneficiaries of commerce and trade expand in relatively equal proportion, then larger aggregate trade flows should promote peace (Domke 1988, 48). These mechanisms linking the economic interests of society to preferences over foreign policy decisions on war and peace need to be refined for several reasons. I have already discussed how revisions in standard trade theory illustrate that all factors or sectors in an economy do not receive income gains from trade. Consequently, economic interests can lead some societal groups to favor the closure of national markets to international trade. For example, scarce factors of production are likely to lobby for protection to reduce imports and prevent the erosion of their income (Stolper and Samuelson 1941). This proposition similarly implies that economic interests can lead certain groups to support any policy, including the use of military force, which reduces commerce and import penetration.'0 At the very least, protectionist interests are less likely than other groups to lobby the state for peace when conflict threatens to interrupt trade. Sectors relying on protection may even actively support aggressive foreign policies for two reasons. First, by reducing imports and foreign competition, military conflict may create income gains for these sectors by expanding their share of domestic markets. Second, military expansion can also provide concentrated income gains to these groups by enlarging a protected domestic market through conquest and the integration of another economy. Similar to the standard arguments linking imperialist interests to conflict, an important distinction separates this claim from more traditional ones. The extent to which economic interests rely on regulatory protection from the state to remain profitable plays a critical role in their support of military force for economic expansion. Sectors that do not rely on the state for protection while surviving in international markets can generate new markets for simple efficiency reasons. Their goods penetrate new overseas markets because they are cheaper than those of international competitors. Given that the use of military conflict may carry the risk of additional costs to these sectors, they should be unlikely to support such a policy if it were to achieve the same outcome (of new overseas markets) they could achieve without the use of force. At the same time, sectors that are less competitive in international markets may be more willing to risk recovering any costs of war in new markets that they otherwise could not acquire without the use of force." These possibilities demand that any claim that commerce reduces military conflict must account for the relative political strength or veto capacity of societal groups unlikely to support liberal commercial policies and peace for economic reasons.12 Apart from understanding the role of protectionist interests in decisions to use military force, one must also examine the influence of their societal opponents-those favoring peace for economic reasons-in this domestic struggle. The primary beneficiaries of free trade face significant organizational hurdles in their lobbying efforts pursuing both free trade and peace. Studies of the domestic politics of commercial policy (e.g., Alt and Gilligan 1994) illustrate that gains from trade, whether in the form of reduced prices for consumer goods or new export markets, are often diffused throughout society. This diffusion reduces the willingness of these groups to undertake costly lobbying activity for the relatively small benefits of greater openness to trade. At the same time, the costs of economic integration, whether in the form of factory closures or job losses, are often more concentrated in specific industries or firms. Organizational advantages thus help those groups most hurt by international trade to overcome the collective action problem and mobilize support for protective policies that insulate their sectors from international competition. Similar organizational difficulties may reduce the effectiveness of societal constraints on a government's efforts to use military force as an instrument of foreign policy (Gowa 1999). The aggregate benefits that stem from avoiding the costs of war may be spread evenly across society to prevent individuals from undertaking the costly lobbying activity necessary to restrain a government from using force. These twin possibilities suggest that the income gains from trade may not always provide sufficient incentives to prevent conflict if their beneficiaries possess relatively weak domestic influence. To understand the conditions when trade activates these societal interests to produce peace, we need to assess the relative political strength of these groups. Just as bat- tlefield outcomes reduce ambiguities about the prewar balance of military power and resolve between states (Fearon 1995; Wagner 2000), trade policy outcomes can indicate the relative balance of political strength between societal groups fighting a domestic battle over commercial policy. Greater levels of protection in an economy indicate that import-competing sectors have successfully lobbied the state to enact regulatory barriers and possess relatively more political influence than the beneficiaries of trade within the domestic political game. The level of protection in an economy thus provides one means to assess the relative strength of domestic economic interests in favor of war or peace. As the size of protected sectors increases, the domestic political influence of these groups on the state and the potential for military conflict should also increase. Conversely, smaller levels of protection indicate that free trade lobbies likely to oppose military aggression possess relatively more domestic political influence.China DefenseChinese are backing away from Arctic imperialism.ORourke 6/15 Specialist in Naval Affairs (Ronald, Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress, 6/15/12; < http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf>)//ABSome analysts, however, believe that Chinas general approach toward the Arctic will remain decidedly low-key: To date China has adopted a wait-and-see approach to Arctic developments, wary that active overtures would cause alarm in other countries due to Chinas size and status as a rising global power. China is believed to be keen on resolving through diplomacy the national interests of both littoral and nonArctic states in the high north. Toward that end, it has sought permanent observer status on the Arctic Council.177China wont militarize-its only an observer country and relies on investing.Reuters 14 ("Chinese Army Think-tank Says Arctic Energy Would Help Economy." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 18 June 2014. Web. 31 July 2014. . XM)(Reuters) - Oil and gas resources in the Arctic are an important resource to guarantee China's sustained economic growth and the country should actively look at developing it, state media on Wednesday cited a Chinese military think-tank as saying. The Arctic Council agreed in May last year to admit emerging powers China and India as observers, reflecting growing global interest in the trade and energy potential of the planet's Far North. The organisation, which coordinates Arctic policy, is gaining influence as sea ice thaws to open up trade routes and intensify competition for oil and gas - estimated at 15 percent and 30 percent respectively of undiscovered reserves. The Defence Policy Research Centre of the Academy of Military Sciences of the People's Liberation Army singled out the Arctic as one of the chapters of an annual strategic assessment. "The Arctic region has rich oil and gas resources and quick and convenient shipping conditions, which has important meaning for ensuring the sustained development of China's economy," the centre said in its report, according to excerpts published by the official China News Service. "The Arctic region could become an important supply base in the future for China's overseas oil. China will ... open cooperation with Arctic countries with energy supplies." China relies on overseas oil to help power its economy, now the second-largest in the world, and has long fretted about security of its supplies as so much of it has to flow through the narrow Malacca Strait, linking the Indian Ocean to the Pacific. China has been active in the polar region of late, becoming one of the biggest mining investors in Greenland and agreeing a free trade deal with Iceland. Shorter shipping routes across the Arctic Ocean would save its companies time and money. China already has mining links with Greenland and trade ties with Iceland. Greenland may have the world's biggest deposits of rare earths, used in smart phones and green technology.China is not militarizing the arctic-its all speculationWright 12 (Wright, David C. is an associate professor of history and senior research fellow at the Centre for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary. "Claiming the Arctic." Defense News. N.p., 1 July 2012. Web. 31 July 2014. . XM)Could this eventually lead to a Chinese naval base on Iceland? This seems unlikely, at least at present. The actual content, style and direction of the new Sino-Icelandic coziness is unclear and will perhaps only emerge as the relationship develops. In mid-June 2012, a Chinese military newspaper (www.chnmilitary.com) published a piece about time being ripe for the return of Mongolia to China because, among other things, controlling Mongolia would put China that much closer to the Arctic. This is absurd because, among other reasons, the northernmost extents of Chinas Heilongjiang province and Chinas Inner Mongolia are both farther north than any part of Mongolia. Such nonsense naturally incites suspicion in Arctic and non-Arctic states alike. When it comes to the Arctic, China clearly has its diplomatic and international PR work cut out for it. It seems that Chinas approach regarding the Arctic has neither extended beyond the mere pursuit of it nor matured beyond what Linda Jakobson predicted in 2010 it would be in a paper written for SIPRI: The notion that China has rights in the Arctic can be expected to be repeated in articles by Chinese academics and in comments by Chinese officials until it gradually begins to be perceived as an accepted state of affairs. American diplomats and international lawyers I have spoken with assume that China can effectively do little or nothing about its Arctic ambitions because it has no Arctic littoral and no voting position on the Arctic Council. But China can throw its economic, political and diplomatic weight at individual states it sees as impeding its Arctic interests. One American panda slugger insisted to me in Washington in May that the Chinese military is behind the scenes manipulating and orchestrating Chinas preoccupation with the Arctic. But the Chinese militarys involvement in Arctic affairs is based more on speculation than hard evidence.Solvency UNCLOS = Alt CauseFailure to ratify UNCLOS means the US cant operate in the Arctic

Peters 14 (Peters, Douglas L., Truman Veterans Leadership Academy Graduate, "UNCLOS: How Were Missing Out on Arctic Opportunity."Truman National Security Project. Truman Project, n.d. Web. 14 July 2014. < http://trumanproject.org/doctrine-blog/unclos-how-were-missing-out-on-arctic-opportunity/>, XM)

Russia, Canada, and Denmark have already made claims on waters stretching to the North Pole. Disputes have even arisen between the U.S. and Canada over an emerging Northwest Sea Passage. The U.S. has argued that the potential sea route is neutral territory, but Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has threatened to place military icebreakers in the area to assert sovereignty and take action to protect [Canadas] territorial integrity. Yes, even our polite neighbors to the North get a little confident when it comes to claiming new territory. Despite this competition to our North, the U.S. is the only Arctic State that is not a party to the U.N Convention on the Law of the Sea a well-established international treaty designed to codify navigational rights, protect domestic economic development from foreign harassment, and referee territorial claims among nations. Our domestic industries view U.S. accession to the Convention as an opportunity to mine seabed mineral resources, tap oil and gas fields, and lay fiber optic cables with international legal protection. The Pentagon, and particularly the U.S. Coast Guard, also views accession to the Convention as an opportunity, but as an opportunity to address critical issues of national security, sovereign rights, and environmental protections in the increasingly wet Arctic Ocean. In fact, the Coast Guard Commandant, Admiral Robert Papp, recently testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that U.S. accession to the Convention is needed to ensure Americas Arctic future. If theres one thing that business leaders and military planners hate alike, it is being at a competitive disadvantage for no reason. Until the U.S. accedes to the Convention, it cannot have the true boundaries of its expansive continental shelf internationally recognized by the Conventions Continental Shelf Commission. Recognition on the extent of its continental shelf would allow the U.S. to claim exclusive rights to natural resources on and beneath the Arctic seabed out to 600 miles from the Alaska coast, which is well beyond the 200 mile exclusive economic zone that is customarily given to nations. Right now, other Arctic nations are gaining the competitive advantage by filing extended continental shelf submissions with the Continental Shelf Commission to perfect their territorial claims. The sooner their territorial claims are recognized, the sooner their domestic industries will begin to develop natural resources and create jobs. As frustrated as our domestic industries are with U.S. political complacency towards the Convention, the Coast Guard is also feeling the burden of a weakened U.S. negotiating position on other Arctic agreements. The Coast Guard has robust statutory authority to police the Arctic and will be Americas first responder to environmental emergencies. The Convention is already serving as the umbrella for other discussions among Arctic nations on oil pollution preparedness and a maritime search and rescue agreement. Admiral Papp testified that the U.S. negotiating position on these agreements would be much stronger if the U.S. was a party to the Convention. The U.S. will not have the luxury of complacency when it comes to the competition in the Arctic. All that our domestic industries are asking for is the protection the Convention provides before they will invest the billions of dollars necessary to develop Americas natural resources and create jobs. All the Coast Guard is asking for is a better opportunity to prepare itself for the challenges and dangerous situations it will inevitably face as Americas Arctic responders. The melting Arctic ice demonstrates how quickly the world is changing, and how quickly the U.S. needs to solidify its rights under the Convention in order to become a competitive Arctic nation.Infrastructure Issues No solvencyDOD 11- (report to congress on arctic operations and the northwest passage, May 11, http://www.dot.state.ak.us/stwddes/desports/assets/pdf/dodreport_arcticops.pdf)//MSOBecause of the range and severity of Arctic conditions, climatic, hydrologic, topographic, and geographic factors must all be considered in site selection for any infrastructure in this region. The environment desired inside buildings is usually drastically different from ambient conditions, placing additional stresses on building components. Some important considerations for infrastructure in the Arctic include: condensation control, structural design ventilation, snow load, snow accumulation and drifting potential, and roof drainage, among others detailed in the Unified Facilities Criteria manuals. When infrastructure is sited along the coast, erosion, silting, sea ice variability, and coastal dynamics must also be considered. The ice movement means that conventional pier construction is rarely feasible. An additional consideration is the months of almost continuous daylight in summer, followed by winter months of almost complete darkness, a variation that becomes more extreme as one goes further north. Construction in the Arctic is seasonal and skilled labor is usually in short supply; therefore, costs for both construction and maintenance are high. The need to provide room and board at remote locations, decreased efficiency of workers and machinery in extreme environmental conditions, and the difficulties, costs, and risks in shipping materials and equipment add to the challenge. Because of the short construction season, outside work must be accomplished quickly, dictating a high degree of expensive prefabricated construction. During ice-free periods, the most economical means of transportation is by barge. During the winter, transportation over frozen rivers and lakes may be more economical than air transportation. But delays in shipping equipment due to weather can result in prolonged construction times and expensive emergency air freight costs. Construction in the Arctic costs, as a rule of thumb, three to five times more than comparable infrastructure in lower latitudes. Another challenge to bear in mind is the risk to existing infrastructure posed by thawing permafrost. As the permafrost thaws, it loses strength and volume, leading to failure of foundations and piling. The warming climate will also accelerate the erosion of shorelines and riverbanks, threatening infrastructure located on eroding shorelines.Construction inhibited by weather, lack of skilled labor, lack of daylight, transportation, permafrost and its really expensive.DoD 11 Department of Defense (Report to Congress on Arctic Operations and the Northwest Passage, May 2011; < http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/Tab_A_Arctic_Report_Public.pdf>)//ABConstruction in the Arctic is seasonal and skilled labor is usually in short supply; therefore, costs for both construction and maintenance are high. The need to provide room and board at remote locations, decreased efficiency of workers and machinery in extreme environmental conditions, and the difficulties, costs, and risks in shipping materials and equipment add to the challenge. Because of the short construction season, outside work must be accomplished quickly, dictating a high degree of expensive prefabricated construction. During ice-free periods, the most economical means of transportation is by barge. During the winter, transportation over frozen rivers and lakes may be more economical than air transportation. But delays in shipping equipment due to weather can result in prolonged construction times and expensive emergency air freight costs. Construction in the Arctic costs, as a rule of thumb, three to five times more than comparable infrastructure in lower latitudes. Another challenge to bear in mind is the risk to existing infrastructure posed by thawing permafrost. As the permafrost thaws, it loses strength and volume, leading to failure of foundations and piling. The warming climate will also accelerate the erosion of shorelines and riverbanks, threatening infrastructure located on eroding shorelines.Alaskan infrastructure fails; massive maintenance costs, erosion, weather, lack of daylight, etc..DoD 11 US Department of Defense (Report to Congress on Arctic Operations and the Northwest Passage May 2011; < http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/Tab_A_Arctic_Report_Public.pdf>)//ABBecause of the range and severity of Arctic conditions, climatic, hydrologic, topographic, and geographic factors must all be considered in site selection for any infrastructure in this region. The environment desired inside buildings is usually drastically different from ambient conditions, placing additional stresses on building components. Some important considerations for infrastructure in the Arctic include: condensation control, structural design ventilation, snow load, snow accumulation and drifting potential, and roof drainage, among others detailed in the Unified Facilities Criteria manuals.17 When infrastructure is sited along the coast, erosion, silting, sea ice variability, and coastal dynamics must also be considered. The ice movement means that conventional pier construction is rarely feasible. An additional consideration is the months of almost continuous daylight in summer, followed by winter months of almost complete darkness, a variation that becomes more extreme as one goes further north. Construction in the Arctic is seasonal and skilled labor is usually in short supply; therefore, costs for both construction and maintenance are high. The need to provide room and board at remote locations, decreased efficiency of workers and machinery in extreme environmental conditions, and the difficulties, costs, and risks in shipping materials and equipment add to the challenge. Because of the short construction season, outside work must be accomplished quickly, dictating a high degree of expensive prefabricated construction. During ice-free periods, the most economical means of transportation is by barge. During the winter, transportation over frozen rivers and lakes may be more economical than air transportation. But delays in shipping equipment due to weather can result in prolonged construction times and expensive emergency air freight costs. Construction in the Arctic costs, as a rule of thumb, three to five times more than comparable infrastructure in lower latitudes. Another challenge to bear in mind is the risk to existing infrastructure posed by thawing permafrost. As the permafrost thaws, it loses strength and volume, leading to failure of foundations and piling. The warming climate will also accelerate the erosion of shorelines and riverbanks, threatening infrastructure located on eroding shorelines.Plan will require constant dredging.Northern Economics 11 Largest professional economics consulting firm in Alaska; report prepared for Army Corps of Engineers and Alaska Department of Transportation (Alaska Regional Ports: Planning for Alaskas Regional Ports and Harbors: Final Report January 2011; < http://www.dot.state.ak.us/stwddes/desports/assets/pdf/regionalports_finalreport0111.pdf>)//ABDredging is needed on a regular basis to maintain access to a number of ports in Alaska. River ports have issues with deposition of sediment along their facilities, and in some cases the deposited material can be the result of erosion of barge landings and other improvements upstream. Glacier-fed rivers also contribute a great deal of sediment that ports must dredge. Reasons often cited for the need to dredge include additional demand at the port that cannot be served due to shallow water along dock faces, access to existing facilities that is impeded by shallow water or build-up of sediment, and increased vessel sizes that require deeper water or a larger space for maneuvering or docking. Two examples of the effect of sediment on port activities are seen with the Port of Anchorage and the Port of Dutch Harbor. At the Port of Anchorage, regular dredging is required to maintain the approach up Cook Inlet to access port facilities. At the Port of Dutch Harbor, containerships often have to operate at weights below their full capacity to access port facilities. As shipping companies employ larger containerships in the future, the need for dredging will increase.

K LinksArctic geopolitics is constructed through a discursive synthesis of neo-realist and liberal paradigms of thought.

Dittmer et al, 11 (Jason, Sam Moisio, Alan Ingram, Klaus Dodds, Department of Geography, University College London, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdomb Department of Geography, University of Oulu, Finlandc Department of Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London, United Kingdom, Science Direct 2/4/11, Have you heard the one about the disappearing ice? Recasting Arctic geopolitics, AS)

The focal point of this paper is the discourse of Arctic geopolitics, through which, we suggest, the upsurge in space-making pra