arthur h. rosenfeld, commissioner california energy commission (916) 654-4930
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Energy Efficiency: The first and most profitable way to delay Climate Change Moro Camp July 12, 2008. Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 [email protected] http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Energy Efficiency: The first and most profitable way to delay Climate Change
Moro CampJuly 12, 2008
Arthur H. Rosenfeld, CommissionerCalifornia Energy Commission
(916) [email protected]
http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”
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Energy Intensity (E/GDP) in the United States (1949 - 2005) and France (1980 - 2003)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
tho
usa
nd
Btu
/$ (
in $
200
0)
If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)
France
12% of GDP = $1.7 Trillion in 2005
7% of GDP =$1.0 TrillionIn 2005
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Trillion
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How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency
• Some examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies
• Beginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses– This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-
wide
• Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is from transportation, and 1/3 from buildings and industry.
Billion $
Space Heating 40Air Conditioning 30Refrigerators 15Fluorescent Tube Lamps 5Compact Floursecent Lamps 5Total 95
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Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,0001
96
0
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
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82
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86
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88
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90
19
92
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96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change
US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%
2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita
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Annual Energy Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,0001
97
5
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
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84
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85
19
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90
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91
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92
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96
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98
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99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
GW
h/y
ear
Appliance Standards
Building Standards
Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of
~1% of electric bill
~15% of Annual Electricity Use in California in 2003
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Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,
in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org
75%60%
25%20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Ind
ex (
1972
= 1
00)
Effective Dates of National Standards
=
Effective Dates of State Standards
=
Refrigerators
Central A/C
Gas Furnaces
SEER = 13
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8Source: David Goldstein
New United States Refrigerator Use v. Time and Retail Prices
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Av
era
ge
En
erg
y U
se
or
Pri
ce
0
5
10
15
20
25
Re
frig
era
tor
vo
lum
e (
cu
bic
fe
et)
Energy Use per Unit(kWh/Year)
Refrigerator Size (cubic ft)
Refrigerator Price in 1983 $
$ 1,270
$ 462
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Annual Energy Saved vs. Several Sources of Supply
Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds
renewables
100 Million 1 KW PV systems
conventional hydro
nuclear energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Bil
lio
n k
Wh
/yea
r
= 80 power plants of 500 MW each
In the United States
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Value of Energy to be Saved (at 8.5 cents/kWh, retail price) vs. Several Sources of Supply in 2005 (at 3 cents/kWh, wholesale price)
Energy Saved Refrigerator Stds
renewables
100 Million 1 KW PV systems
conventional hydro
nuclear energy
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bill
ion
$ (
US
)/ye
ar
in 2
00
5In the United States
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Air Conditioning Energy Use in Single Family Homes in PG&E The effect of AC Standards (SEER) and Title 24 standards
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
An
nu
al
kW
h p
er n
ew
ho
me
fo
r ce
ntr
al
AC
If only increases in house size -- no efficiency gains
Change due to SEER improvements
SEER plus Title 24
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
3 Gorges三峡
Refrigerators冰箱
Air Conditioners 空调
TWh
2000 Stds
2000 Stds
2005 Stds
2005 Stds
If Energy Star
If Energy Star
TW
H/Y
ear
1.5
4.5
6.0
3.0
7.5
Val
ue
(bil
lio
n $
/yea
r)
Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements
Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL
Value of TWh
3 Gorges三峡
Refrigerators 冰箱
Air Conditioners
空调
Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh
Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh
三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比
标准生效后, 10年节约电量
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Incandescent Lamps:Phase out!
(by 2018)
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California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,00019
76
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Mill
ions
of
$200
2 pe
r Y
ear
Forecast
Profits decoupled from sales
Performance Incentives
Market Restructuring
Crisis
IRP2% of 2004
IOU Electric Revenues
Public Goods Charges
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Cool Roof Technologies
flat, white
pitched, white
pitched, cool & colored
Old New
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Potential Savings in LA
• Savings for Los Angeles– Direct, $100M/year– Indirect, $70M/year– Smog, $360M/year
• Estimate of national savings: $5B/year
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Cool Roof Programs around the World
• U.S.
• Europe
• Asia
• Middle East
• China
• India (Hyderabad demos; see graphs; funded by U.S.AID)
Saved 15% of Air Conditioning
Energy!Cool Cars too!
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Cool Cars
• Toyota experiment; Ford and Fiat developing
• 18 F cooler! Better mpg and lower car purchase cost (smaller air conditioner)
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The End
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Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight
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Cool and Standard BrownMetal Roofing Panels
• Solar reflectance ~ 0.2 higher• Afternoon surface temperature ~ 10ºC lower
CourtesyBASF
Coatings
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Example: Dioxazine PurpleOver Various Undercoats
• Two-layer system– top coat: thin layer of dioxazine purple (14-27 µm)
– undercoat or substrate:aluminum foil (~ 25 µm) opaque white paint (~1000 µm)non-opaque white paint (~ 25 µm)opaque black paint (~ 25 µm)
purpleover
aluminumfoil
purpleover
opaquewhite paint
purpleover
non-opaquewhite paint
purpleover
opaqueblack paint
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Dioxazine Purple Reflectances
over aluminumRsolar = 0.41
over opaque whiteRsolar = 0.42
over non-opaque whiteRsolar = 0.30
over opaque blackRsolar = 0.05
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Designing Cool Colored Roofing
cool clay tileR ≥0.40
CourtesyMCA Clay Tile
cool metalR ≥0.30
CourtesyBASF Industrial
Coatings
CourtesyAmericanRooftileCoatings
+0.37 +0.29+0.15+0.23+0.26 +0.29
cool concrete tile R ≥0.40
standard concrete tile(same color)
solar reflectance gain =
cool fiberglass asphalt shingleR ≥0.25Courtesy
Elk Corporation
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Development of Cool Paving Materials: Longer story than we have time
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Cool Roofs Standards in the U.S.
• Building standards for reflective roofs
- American Society of Heating and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE): New commercial and residential buildings
- California Title 24 Building Energy Standard
- Many other states: Georgia, Florida, Hawaii, …
• Air quality standards
- South Coast AQMD
- S.F. Bay Area AQMD
- EPA’s SIP (State Implementation Plans)
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Cool Surfaces also Cool the GlobeWHITEWASHING THE GREEN HOUSE
• Cool roof standards are designed to reduce a/c demand, save money, and save emissions. In Los Angeles they can eventually save ~$200,000 per hour
• Annual savings in the U.S. = $1-2B; ~ 7 M tons CO2
• Annual savings in the world = $10-15B; ~ 100 M tons CO2
• But higher albedo surfaces (roofs and pavements) directly cool the world (0.01 K) quite independent of avoided CO2. So we discuss the effect of cool surfaces for tropical and temperate cities. That will turn out to offset ~$1Trillion of CO2 over perhaps 20 years
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Dense Urban Areas are 1% of Land
• Area of the Earth = 5.08x1014 m2
• Land Area (29%) = 148x1012 m2 [1]• Area of the 100 largest cities = 0.38x1012 m2 = 0.26%
of Land Area for 670 M people• Assuming 3B live in urban area, urban areas =
[3000/670] x 0.26% = 1.2% of land• But smaller cities have lower population density,
hence, urban areas = 2% of land• Dense, developed urban areas only 1% of land [2]
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Potentials to Increase Urban Albedo is 0.1
• Typical urban area is 25% roof and 35% paved surfaces• Roof albedo can increase by 0.25 for a net change of
0.25x0.25=0.063• Paved surfaces albedo can increase by 0.15 for a net change of
0.35x0.15=0.052• Net urban area albedo change at least 0.10
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Effect of Solar Reflective Roofs and Pavements in Cooling the Globe
• Increasing the solar reflectance of a m2 of roofs by 0.25 is equivalent to sequestering 31-57 kg CO2 from atmosphere (18-32 m2 of cool roof = 1 T CO2 removed from atmosphere)
• Increasing the solar reflectance of a m2 of paved surfaces by 0.15 is equivalent to sequestering 18-34 kg CO2 from atmosphere
• World-wide equivalent atmospheric carbon reduction of reflective roofs and pavements is 22 - 40 GT CO2
• Equivalent CO2 emission reduction of reflective roofs and pavements = [22 – 40] /0.55 = 40 - 73 GT CO2
• 40 -73 GT CO2 is 1-2 years of the world 2025 emission of 37 GT CO2 per year
• CO2 emissions currently trade at ~$25/T; 40 – 73 GT CO2 worth $1000 - $1800 billion
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(Source: Akbari et al. 2008, submitted to Climatic Change)
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Practical Guidelines
• EPA Guidebook (1992)• Good practical information• Greatest focus on trees
• EPA is working on a new edition