arsenic: science regulation and public policy lecture at harvard school of public health 12.30 pm,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Arsenic:Science
Regulation and
Public Policy
Lecture at Harvard School of Public Health
12.30 pm, Friday May 4th 2001
by
Richard WilsonMallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics
Harvard University
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ARSENIC
Metal
Molecular weight 74.92
Melting Point 8170C
Specific Gravity 5.73
Many compounds and minerals
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• Arsenic has been used for over 3000 years
• As2O3 ARSENLITE
• by roasting As2S or FeAsS
• As2S3 ORPIMENT
• PbHAsO4 SHULTENITE
• KH(ASO2)2 Fowler’s Solution
• CH3AsO(ON2)2
• CH3AsO(OH)ONa
• Pesticides with various names
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Non-Ferrous Smelters
Coal Burning
Cotton Gins
Cigarette smoke
Common Sources
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Early Information(pre 1986)
Acutely Toxic
to Rodents and People
Used as Medicine
Fowler’s solution 1% in alcohol
Cure for Syphilis
(recent) cure for leukemia
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Early Information(pre 1986) contd.
1888 Skin lesions and Cancers
1897 Lung cancer from pesticides
1920s lung cancer from smelters
1950s angiosarcoma from pesticides
BUT
no cancers in rodents
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Early Misconception(pre 1986)
Rodents dont get cancer,
therefore people wont
Inhalation a special case
with non-linearity
(but Zeise and I contested that)
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Preliminary warning
• TSENG et al found skin Tumors in TAIWAN
• BUT
• They appeared to follow a threshold relationship.
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THE GREAT SURPRIZE
In 1986 C J Chen
And collaborators reported internal cancers in the same
area of Taiwan
IGNORED FOR 5 YEARS!
Why?
Only a Chinese study
(as bad as the Russians?)
1990 Allan Smith
1991 Byrd,Lamm Wilson
took him seriously
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THE GREAT SURPRIZE
The internal cancers seemed to be linear with dose and the risk is
huge.
BUT:
An ecological study
and
Only in one location and there might be another cause
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THE VINDICATION
CHILEARGENTINEINNER MONGOLIABANGLADESHWEST BENGAL
NO PREVIOUS STUDY INCONSISTENT
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LOW DOSE LINARITY the regulatory default
• Crump Guess and Peto of 1975
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CRITICAL ISSUES FOR LINEARITY
• The POLLUTANT ACTS
• in the same way as
• WHATEVER ELSEINFLUENCES THE
• CANCER RATE
• CANCERS CAUSED BY
• THE POLLUTANT
• ARE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM OTHER CANCERS
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e.g
ARSENIC
THE ARGUMENTS APPLY
TO
ANY CARCINOGEN
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Arsenic risk
• Skin lesions may be unique
• There may be a threshold at
• 50 -150 ppb
• (Data from Taiwan and also from Inner Mongolia)
• BUT
• Internal cancers may be different
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Is there a Threshold?
• For a common cancer (lung cancer) a threshold is hard to prove because at 50 ppb a 1% risk is in the background
• For a common cancer the Peto argument applies
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Toxicologists like Thresholds
• Few (if any) toxicologists address the Peto argument.
• ?? Threshold for bladder cancer and not for lung cancer??
• ED01 data on 2 DAA
• linear for liver
• threshold for bladder
• anticarcarcinogen for others
• WHY IS THERE SO MUCH CANCER IF EVERYTHING HAS A THRESHOLD?
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Many Legislators still want
< 1 in a million!Where does this leave regulation
of arsenic?
Limits should be 5 ppt!
(not practical)
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Arsenic risk
• For internal cancers
• At 500 ppb Measured Risk
• (Chile) is 10%
• If linear,
• risk is one in a million
• at 5 parts per trillion!!
• “background” is about
• 2 parts per billion
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NOTHING SAID ABOVE SAYS THAT
THE MEDICAL OUTCOME IS CANCER
it applies to all
chronic effects
Reduction in lung function caused by air pollution
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Many Legislators still want
< 1 in a million!
(pessimistically calculated
using LNT)
Should arsenic be treated differently from
Trichloroethylene (TCE)
(or vice versa)?
WHY?
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MY CONCLUSION (REPEAT OF 20 YEARS AGO)
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE
TO REGULATE A
ONE IN A MILLION
LIFETIME RISK CONSISTENTLY
• ATTEMPTS TO DO SO • ARE
• ARBITRARY
• and
• CAPRICIOUS
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How should we dispose of ARSENIC?
1970 Spray 40,000 tons a year
on our crops and forget it!
WHY NOT TREAT IT LIKE LONG LIVED HIGH LEVEL
NUCLEAR WASTE?
Equally likely for LNT to apply
MUCH more ARSENIC
than nuclear waste
(Cohen 1977 Revs. Mod Phys)
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How should we dispose of ARSENIC? (contd)
EPA says that Arsenic need not be put in a secure landfill.
BUT
If the proposed EPA regulations for Yucca Mountain are applied
No water system in USA and not much agricultural land would be in compliance.
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Unreasonable consistency is the
hobgoblin of small minds(Emerson)
BUT Regulators have a duty
(rarely performed)
to explain each inconsistency
This duty is even bigger
for the
National Academy of Sciences
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Can One Prove a threshold?
MAYBE
if one focusses on the right question:
Similarity to
Asbestos
Benzene
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Can One Prove a threshold? (2)
MEREWEATHER”S QUESTION (1937)
Is it ASBESTOS or is it the ASBESTOSIS that is
caused by asbestos that causes the lung cancers?
If the former LNT is likely
If the latter LNT is less likely
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Can One Prove a threshold? (3)
There semes to be a threshold for
SKIN LESIONS
(should be studied further)
Are lung cancers more or less likely if there are skin
lesions?
(Allan Smith may tell us)
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Can One Prove a threshold? (4)
Are the lung cancers really indistinguishable from background cancers?
If NOT Peto’s argument does not apply
Try DNA matching on lung tumor samples.
Similarly for asbestos cancers, radiation leukemias etc.