armageddon averted or just postponed? prospects for the six party talks in beijing tim beal victoria...

Armageddon averted or just postponed?

Prospects for the Six Party Talks in BeijingTim Beal

Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Political Economy Research Centre, Sheffield

Thursday 14 December 2006

PERC Sheffield 14 Dec 2006 2

OVERVIEW I

• Six Party Talks– Background, Breakthrough, Breakdown

• Characteristics of the contestation

• Positions of the contestants– Russia, Japan, China, ROK, DPRK,– US


OVERVIEW II

• The year of suspension– Counterfeiting, drugs, human

rights>>>financial sanctions

• Armageddon – averted, postponed or something else?

• Prospects


Six Party Talks - background

• Where does it begin?– Japanese period, Liberation and Division,

Korean War…Agreed Framework

• Agreed Framework– Origins, course and collapse


Origins - nuclear issue

• DPRK two main nuclear objectives– Electricity

• Energy security …nuclear fuel cycle

– Military Security (assumed but denied)– Same as every other nuclear-capable country– Parallels with India particularly topical and

relevant


Need for electricity often overlooked

– Key constraint on economic recovery– ROK (Japan…) large dependence on nuclear

energy– UK reactivating nuclear energy programme


1993/4 crisis>>Agreed Framework

• Jimmy Carter meets Kim Il Sung– Agreement forced upon Clinton


Agreed Framework

– I Both sides will cooperate to replace the DPRK’s graphite-moderated reactors and related facilities with light-water reactor (LWR) power plants.

• Due 2003 – five years behind schedule, now cancelled

– US-led Korean Peninsula Energy Organization (KEDO)


KEDO

• Initiated and controlled by US, paid for mainly by ROK and Japan

• Now formally disbanded– ROK having to pick up final bills

• US to provide annual supplies of heavy fuel oil as compensation for energy forgone


Agreed Framework

• II The two sides will move toward full normalization of political and economic relations. – Little progress except late 2000; frozen by Bush

• III Both sides will work together for peace and security on a nuclearfree Korean peninsula


nuclearfree Korean peninsula

• US to give formal assurances against the threat of nuclear weapons– Bush Nuclear Posture Review threatened preemptive

nuclear strike

• DPRK implement N-S denuclearization agreement– Enriched uranium would breech that

• IV. Both sides will work together to strengthen the international nuclear non proliferation regime.


Sunshine to clouds

• Kim Dae-jung’s ‘sunshine policy’– Engagement with North was necessary to

prevent war– Collapse of DPRK would disastrous for ROK

• Defuse tensions, move to peaceful reunification

– Pressure on Clinton >>Perry Report >>US –DPRK modus vivendi

• NK missile moratorium


Pyongyang Summit 2000

• June – highly successful summit

• October –Secretary Albright visits Pyongyang, comes back with invitation to Clinton

• Clinton packs his bags but Gore loses election


Kim Dae-jung’s final years

• Bush makes clear he is abandoning Clinton’s policies, Korea and elsewhere– ABC policy

• March 2001 Kim Dae-jung goes to Washington, is rebuffed

• North-South relations go up and down


January 2002

– Nuclear Posture Review • Violates NS- nuclear accord; Nuclear Non-

Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

– Axis of Evil speech• State of the Union speech links Iraq, Iran and DPRK


Roh Moo-Hyun

• Human rights lawyer, commercial school education

• Roh’s victory 2002 due to large degree to Anti-Americanism

• Less deferential to Americans than Kim Dae-jung• Careful not to annoy US• Adamant that US must negotiate

– US says it will talk but not negotiate


Collapse of Agreed Framework

• US never fully implemented AF, effectively destroyed it late 2002– Charged DPRK with having enriched uranium

programme


Enriched uranium issue

• Not new

• Going back to Gilman– 3 Nov 99: Representative Benjamin A. Gilman

(Rep), Chairman of the House International Relations Committee, released a congressional report today on DPRK threat to the US and its allies


Gilman report

• First, the American people need to know that there is significant evidence that North Korea is continuing its activities to develop nuclear weapons.

• Remarkably, North Korea's efforts to acquire uranium technologies, that is, a second path to nuclear weapons, and their efforts to weaponize their nuclear material do not violate the 1994 Agreed Framework. That is because the Clinton Administration did not succeed in negotiating a deal with North Korea that would ban such efforts. It is inexplicable and inexcusable


Pollack- the summit trigger

• Jonathan Pollack (US) Naval War College Review, Summer 2003 argued– US had new evidence of NK heavily enriched uranium

(HEU) weapons programme

– Crisis triggered by Japan’s surprise announcement of Pyongyang Summit

• Preparations had been kept secret from the Americans

• Tokyo-Pyongyang rapprochement would sideline US, weaken its NK policy

• Ass Sec Jim Kelly sent to Pyongyang


Kelly’s Pyongyang visit October 2002

• Kelly came back from Pyongyang claiming– He had accused NK of having HEU programme

– They admitted this

• Pyongyang soon denied both charges, but crisis had been set in motion– US suspended deliveries of oil, abrogating AF;

Pyongyang reactivated reactors. US refused to negotiate, >>10 February 2005 NK suspends participation in Six Party talks, says has nuclear deterrent


Selig Harrison

• Article in Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2005– US feared warming of relations between North

and South, as well as Japan-NK– Said it was likely that there had been a

programme to enrich uranium for feedstock for light water reactors but no evidence of weapons programme

• Post-Iraq loss of credibility


Misinformation

• Widespread feeling that there was a repeat of Iraq misinformation campaign– Chinese, in particular, made it clear that they do

no believe US

• Repeat in early 2005 with US charges that NK had exported nuclear material to Libya

• 20 March article in Washington Post “US Misled allies about nuclear export”


Enriched uranium

• Violation not of AF, but of N-S nuclear accord– SK has admitted infringing accord

• Technology originated in West Europe in search for nuclear independence from US>>Pakistan >>Iran

• Energy security as much as weapons• Small and dispersed; DPRK can never prove it is

not enriching


SIX PARTY TALKS

• Brokered by China– 3 Party April 2003– 1: 27-29 August 2003– 2: 25-28 Feb 2004– 3: June 2004– 4: July- August and September 2005


Six Party Talks 2005>>

• Breakthrough– Joint Statement 19 September 2005

• Breakdown– 19/20 September 2005


BREAKTHROUGH

• Joint Statement took everyone by surprise

• No indication earlier of any shifting of positions

• JS– Very ambiguous– Two interesting omissions


Omissions

• Heavy enriched uranium– Had been the alleged reasons for US tearing up

Agreed Framework

• Cheney– Architect of US Korea policy– Had personally intervened at previous rounds


NY Times account

• U.S.-Korean Deal on Arms Leaves Key Points Open – September 20, 2005– By JOSEPH KAHN and DAVID E. SANGER

• Chinese applied pressure on DPRK, but more on US


Chinese pressure

• As this unfolded over the weekend, the Chinese increased pressure on the United States to sign - or take responsibility for a breakdown in the talks.

• "At one point they told us that we were totally isolated on this and that they would go to the press," and explain that the United States sank the accord, the senior administration official said.


Why did US sign?

• Cheney absent

• Rice – Each country, she suggested, would issue

separate statements describing their understanding of the deal, with a specificity that is not in the agreement itself

• Did that, in Washington and Beijing, DPRK reacted, >>BREAKDOWN


CHARACTERISTICS of Six Party Framework

• 1 US salience

• 2: Asymmetry

• 3: Global interconnections – the network effect


US Salience

• 1: US is salient– US is by far the most important country for

each of the others• Not reciprocated

– Except perhaps China

– All of them want good relations with US• Not least DPRK


US position the default

– They do things against their own interests – eg ROK sending troops to Iraq – to keep US happy

• China plays a waiting game

– They do not oppose US head-on in UN, but work to water down resolutions

• Eg over invasion of Iraq, condemnation of NK missile and nuclear test

• Focus in analysis should be on US, not DPRK– DPRK policy options limited, US much more complex


2: Asymmetry

• Six parties are very disparate– Population, wealth, military power, political

system, culture, sovereignty, etc. etc.


Sovereignty and power I

• US is the superpower– No serious threat from any other power– Question of projecting power

• Iraq shows limits

• Russia, China and Japan– Equal in military spending– But Japan not ‘normal country’

• Has US bases. large element of US military control


Sovereignty and power II

• ROK– Much bigger and richer than DPRK, much larger

military spending, advanced equipment….• But US has ‘wartime control’, and bases

• DPRK– Weakest and smallest

• Limited project of power; defense paramount

• No foreign bases, military exercises– IS DPRK-China mutual defence treaty operable?


Asymmetry: DPRK and US


DPRK

– Negotiations with US key to future– Mistakes could be fatal– Only US can attack, or allow attack– Options limited– Determined and focussed


US

– DPRK itself not important, no threat– It is implications of DPRK for global and

regional strategies which is important– Wide range of problems and issues around the

world (Iraq, Iran, Islamic nationalism…– Open society, traditionally confident in

invulnerability and mission• Partisanship (eg ABC>>LWR)

– Many options, no urgency


3 Global interconnections and network

• No country is an island– Even NK has relationships around the world

• US, in particular, a global power– Korean policy must be seen in wider context


For each of the Six Parties

– Its relationship with one of the others has ramifications for its relationship with all

– The actions of any one of the others impacts on its relationship with all

– We can conceptualise a dual layer network• Between each of the Six with each other

• Between each of the Six with their global relationships

– Networks can be hard (political, military, economic) or soft (cultural, influence..)


Tyranny of geographical convenience I

• Media talks of ‘NK nuclear issue’– Misleading

• Nuclear issue only arises because of other parties

• Especially US– Were it not for US threat it is highly unlikely

that NK would have attempted to develop a nuclear deterrent


Geographical convenience II

• Tendency to label events in geographical terms– Usually the weaker/less warlike party

• We talk of ‘the Iraq War’– As if we had nothing to do with it

• French, Americans talked of ‘Vietnam War’• Vietnamese talk of the French War and the

American War


Too many American wars

new ROK Foreign Minister) Song Min-soon....

Last month, he caused a diplomatic stir with Washington when he described the United States as a warmonger.

``Perhaps the United States as a nation has fought the most wars in the history of humankind, given the number of years of its establishment and existence."Korea Times, Seoul, 17 November 2006http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200611/kt2006111717334310440.htm


Characteristics>>positions

• 1 Salience of US

• 2 Asymmetry

• 3 Network

• Now look at positions and policies of the Six


POSITIONS

• Russia, China, ROK fairly similar– Oppose DPRK nuclear weapons

• Facilitate Japanese remilitarisation and nuclearisation

• Could provoke US to war

– War would have horrendous consequences for Korean peninsula and region

• China fear that hawks might use opportunity to attack


Russia, China, ROK

• Want stability, peace

• Different attitudes towards unification but all want economic cooperation and growth

• All oppose collapse of DPRK


Japan

• Currently a ‘spoiler’ – bringing abductee issue to SPT

• Abductee issue good for domestic consumption

• Tension with DPRK>>remilitarisation– Aimed at China

• Worried about Korean reunification


US response to JS

• Intensified use of psychowar weapons– ‘Human rights’, allegations about

counterfeiting, drugs

• Seldom any hard evidence

• Even by US charges, scale of offences small, not proportional to effect on SPT

• Deliberate attempt to derail Six Party Talks?


Examples: Drugs and counterfeit currency


Drugs

• Pong Su• Centrepiece of US allegations – State Dept annual

report on international drug trafficking– The report cited examples such as in Australia in 2003

when the North Korean cargo vessel Pong Su was seized by Australian authorities as the ship was allegedly delivering a large load of heroin. At the time of the seizure, a North Korean communist party secretary was also found aboard. A trial is still in process (March 2005)

• 2004 Australian Federal Police give evidence


AFP evidence

• N. Korea drug-trade charges in question Evidence shaky in case cited by U.S. By Cam Simpson Washington Bureau Published March 10, 2004 WASHINGTON -- Days after the Bush administration asserted that the North Korean government most likely is dealing drugs as a matter of state policy, questions about the evidence underlying a key piece of that case are emerging from official Australian sources. In addition to Friday's ruling by Magistrate Duncan Reynolds, a lead investigator from the Australian Federal Police testified that a Southeast Asian organized crime figure--not the North Korean government--arranged the shipment, according to court transcripts. Other evidence, records show, also suggests the heroin was produced in the Golden Triangle region of Southeast Asia, not in North Korea

• http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0403100260mar10,1,5792396.story

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0403100260mar10,1,5792396.story


2006: Pong Su cleared

• N Koreans cleared over heroin The Pong Su was found carrying $50m of heroin A North Korean shipping company is considering suing Australia's government after its senior officers were cleared of drug trafficking. The captain and three senior officers of the Pong Su were found not guilty on Sunday of aiding heroin smuggling, by Victoria state's Supreme Court. The suggestion that senior crew were implicated in the smuggling had led to accusations of backing by Pyongyang.

– http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4778118.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4778118.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4778118.stm


Counterfeiting


Scale small

• NK Fakes $2.8 Million Annually, US Says A U.S. secret service official claimed Tuesday his agency has made ``definitive'' connections between North Korea and its counterfeiting of U.S. currencies, saying Washington has confiscated ``supernotes'' worth $2.8 million on a yearly basis.

Providing a frame of reference, he said the Secret Service seized over $113 million in counterfeit U.S. currency during the 2005 fiscal year. High-quality, counterfeit $100 U.S. bills allegedly produced by North Korea are collectively referred to as supernotes.

– http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200604/kt2006042617415853460.htm

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200604/kt2006042617415853460.htm

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200604/kt2006042617415853460.htm


Georgia on my mind

Fake $100 Bills in Maryland Tied to Organized Crime in Separatist Enclave

From a printing press in South Ossetia [George], a sliver of land with no formally recognized government, more than $20 million in the fake bills has been transported to Israel and the United States, according to investigators. The counterfeit $100 notes have also surfaced in Georgia and Russia, officials said.

That compares to the approximately $2.8 million in "supernotes" linked to North Korea that the agency says it confiscates, on average, each year.

Washington Post, November 26, 2006http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/25/AR2006112500963.html


Evidence unconvincing

• The four-member delegation visited Hong Kong and Macau from Tuesday to Friday before arriving in Seoul on Saturday. ``There was some information we can refer to (regarding the counterfeiting),'' the Seoul official told reporters on condition of anonymity. However, the briefing did not seem to fully convince Seoul, which has been unwilling to accept Washington's sanctions due to concerns the issue could prevent the resumption of the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons programs

– http://search.hankooki.com/times/times_view.php?term=evidence++&path=hankooki3/times/lpage/200601/kt2006012317270553460.htm&media=kt

http://search.hankooki.com/times/times_view.php?term=evidence++&path=hankooki3/times/lpage/200601/kt2006012317270553460.htm&media=kt

http://search.hankooki.com/times/times_view.php?term=evidence++&path=hankooki3/times/lpage/200601/kt2006012317270553460.htm&media=kt


Ex-President Urges Lifting of U.S. Sanctions on N.Korea Former President Kim Dae-jung has urged the United States to consider lifting sanctions it imposed on North Korea last year and talking directly to Pyongyang. In an interview with the financial news service Bloomberg, Kim said Washington must lift financial sanctions on the North for the Stalinist state’s alleged money laundering and counterfeiting if there is no proof. Kim says the Bush administration's hardline stance against the North is partially to blame for the North's development and testing of nuclear weapons. He also defended his Sunshine Policy of engagement with North Korea that won him the Nobel Peace Prize six years ago. Chosun Ilbo, Seoul, 24 November 2006http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200611/200611240022.html


German expert

• Sharply Increased US Sanctions are based on the USD Supernote Accusation against North Korea. But Counterfeit Experts say the Accusation is Baseless. In an interview with the Associated Press (AP) on 19.4.2006 Klaus W. Bender, the author of the new book ｴMoneymakers - The Secret World of Banknote Printing ｴ , Wiley-VCH Verlag, Weinheim, Germany, 39.90 Euro, outlines that ｴ in the opinion of experts, this allegation is not tenable. ｴ It is to do with the paper used in the ｴsupernotes ｴ using original dollar paper (made by a specialist company in Massachusetts) with genuine security ink based on a secret chemical make up and reserved exclusively for the printing of dollars. ｴ It is unimaginable that anyone else (than the Americans themselves) could come by these materials.

http://www.eba-pyongyang.org/index.php?infos





Bender continues

• He stressed that the machines bought by North Korea in the seventies are outdated and not able to produce the USD supernote, a high tech product. In addition, Bender explained that the ｴ supernotes ｴ have two or three designed defects that would ensure that they will be immediately detected by the American checking systems. ｴ The supernotes have therefore no chance of circulating within the USA ｴ , he points out. He says that the USA ｴ s allegation that (North Korean) counterfeiters are waging an economic warfare is baseless but points to the fact that the US CIA itself runs a secret printing facility equipped with the sophisticated technology which is required for the production of the notes.

• http://www.eba-pyongyang.org/index.php?infos


Effect on legitimate business

Presentation by Nigel Cowie, General Manager of Daedong Credit BankJoint venture bank operating in Pyongyang

servicing aid groups, etc


Nigel Cowie; European Business Association presentation

• My name is Nigel Cowie, I'm GM of DCB, and I'd like to take this opportunity to address with you the recent financial allegations and actions against the DPRK by the US Treasury. Where they have acted against specific companies, I can't make any comment, except perhaps that we have not seen any evidence of any wrongdoing by them, because I don't know anything about those cases, but I can tell you what they mean in the case of our bank and the budding legitimate foreign business community in the DPRK which we serve. Which brings me to the point that there is a danger of legitimate businesses being squeezed into routes that are more normally used by real criminals, and the result of these actions against banks doing business with the DPRK being that criminal activities go underground and harder to trace, and legitimate businesses either give up, or end up appearing suspicious by being forced to use clandestine methods. – 11 April 2006 http://www.vuw.ac.nz/~caplabtb/dprk/Cowie060411.doc

http://www.vuw.ac.nz/~caplabtb/dprk/Cowie060411.doc


Counterfeiting>>sanctions

• Counterfeiting allegations around for a long time

• Ramped up after Joint Statement (19/9/065)

• September US accuses Banco Delta Asia in Macau of money laundering for NK– Imposes financial sanctions, pressures bank and

China to freeze NK accounts, pressures


NK response

• Refuses to participate in SPT until sanctions are lifted


NK offers to cooperate

• Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan planned to go to US 9-11 December 2005 to discuss allegations

• Hill said they would only be ‘briefed’ on ‘law enforcement actions unrelated to the talks’

• So Kim cancels


Reasons for US actions

• US claims this is a legal matter not related to talks– Fear of NK de-stabilisation of US currency

• Others suggest the sanctions were intended– To force NK to the talks

• But in them anyway

– ‘Regime change’


Another explanation

• Gavan McCormack has pointed out that US was unhappy with SPT

– North Korea and the US "Strategic Decision" – Japan Focus– http://japanfocus.org/article.asp?id=498

• Entered them as a way of pressuring NK via the others– Network effect

• But was itself coming under increasing pressure from C, SK, R

http://japanfocus.org/article.asp?id=498


US and SPT

• US had been pushed into JS by China (and SK, R)

• Sanctions offered way of forcing NK out of talks

• Current statements show that US is returning to talks reluctantly– Chinese pressure– Mid term elections


Two strands of logic in US strategy

• Overlapping, sometimes contradictory imperatives

• Global and Regional


Global

– DPRK must be punished and destroyed as an example to others

• Peaceful coexistence would send wrong message

– Not as pressing an issue as Middle East• NK is no threat, there is no real danger of things

getting worse cf Iraq

– Rational for Missile Defense


Regional

• Prime objective is containment of China– US-Japan alliance (now involving Taiwan)– Overtures to India, support for nuclear

(missile?) programmes• Using India to Keep China at Bay

• December 12, 2006

• Foreign Policy in Focus

• http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3775

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/3775


Perception of Threat

• DPRK threat and tension essential ingredient– Keep and consolidate Japan and ROK under

US hegemony

• Reunification would undercut military presence in Korea


Strategic incoherence

• US critics often accuse Administration of ‘strategic incoherence’– Clinton>>Perry– Bush doing the same

• No solution – real reason:– Lack of clarity about strategic aims– Refusal to recognise conflicts between them


ROAD TO ARMAGEDDON?

• Armageddon remains real possibility if major nuclear conflict

– Nuclear winter revisited – J. Geophys. Res.2006– http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/nw4.pdf


NK itself

– Counter-attacker• Conventional (nuclear) ability to cause huge damage

in SK and Japan

• Not further afield– At the moment

– Attacked• Eg US strike at reactors

• Danger to peninsula, Japan,( China?)


Not a bang but a whimper?

• Conflagration in Northeast Asia could be dreadful, but not Armageddon

• Real danger is Japan• Abe Shinzo pushing hard for abolition of

Article Nine, and legitimisation of remilitarisation of Japan

• Nuclear weapons pose no great technological challenge


Nuclear, remilitarised Japan

• Already major military power – expenditure comparable to UK, France, bit behind China, Russia

• Has range of technology

• Would spur arms race with China (Russia)– Further spur to India, Taiwan, South Korea


Prospects for the SPT

• Unlikely there will be any progress

• NK has back to the wall– So no major change likely

• Japan wants excuse for remilitarisation

• China, ROK, Russia have limited power

• US shows no sign of real negotiations


US is the key player

• US attempt to contain rising China

• Korean situation, Six Party Talks have to be interpreted within that context

• China’s rise, problems in the Middle East will constrain, influence, perhaps determine US policy for foreseeable future

armageddon averted or just postponed? prospects for the six party talks in beijing tim beal victoria...

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