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Arizonas Electricity Future Nancy LaPlaca LaPlaca & Associates [email protected] 480-359-8442 November 14, 2013

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Page 1: Arizona s Electricity Future...Five Things To Remember 1. Net/Energy Available for Work” declining. 2. AZ imports 90% of electricity fuels. No one knows what fuel will cost in the

Arizona’s Electricity Future

Nancy LaPlaca LaPlaca & Associates

[email protected] 480-359-8442

November 14, 2013

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Who Am I?

!  ASU: Bachelor Fine Arts, J.D., College of Law !  3.5 years as Policy Advisor to AZ Corporation

Commissioner Paul Newman !  Staff co-chair for the Environment Committee

at the National Association of Regulatory Commissioners

!  3 years as public interest intervener at Colorado Public Utilities Commission

!  5 years Congressional staff for AZ Representatives Morris K. Udall and Karan English

!  6 years (total) at AZ Court of Appeals, AZ Supreme Court, State Senate, Criminal Justice Commission

!  Management and technology consulting !  Love to hike, swim, sing and play guitar and

piano; read and listen to books.

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s

Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of

Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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Five Things To Remember

1.  Net/Energy Available for Work” declining. 2.  AZ imports 90% of electricity fuels. No one knows

what fuel will cost in the future, can rise quickly. 3.  Solar, wind have higher up-front but lower long-

term costs, less risk. 4.  Electricity production: from large, central-station to

distributed, closer to load; business models under growing stress.

5.  Damages from “externalities” such as water and air pollution, mortality, lost work days, childhood asthma are known; a range of costs could be included in the “cost” of electricity.

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Background: Key Concepts

ENERGY v CAPACITY "  Energy = kWh, MWh – usable energy "  Capacity Factor = output over time

Why is this important? Because power plants have different capacity factors: "  Nuclear: 93% Capacity Factor (CF) "  Coal: 80% CF "  Wind: 30-40% CF "  Solar: 20-23% CF (in AZ) "  Geothermal: 92% CF

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Energy, Electricity and “Net” Energy

!  Energy: liquid transportation fuels !  Electricity: coal, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind, hydropower

"  Currently not much overlap, but will change as we “electrify” transportation with light rail, electric cars, etc.

!  Net Energy = the energy left after using energy to drill, mine, transport, compress, combust, build, etc.

!  Also called E-ROI (Energy Return on Investment) !  Energy costs are going to rise: Do we invest in renewables,

with higher capital costs, or fossil fuel plants, with increasing fuel costs and high Operation and Maintenance?

!  “Externalities” increasingly important: global warming, water scarcity; also enormous health effects from fossil fuels we’ve ignored for decades

!  Environmental justice issues: local, U.S., global

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The easiest-to-get resources are extracted

first. Example: deepwater v. onshore

drilling for oil.

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Energy Slaves?

!  ~8 calories of oil embedded in every single calorie of food delivered

!  Renewable energy (solar, wind) not as dense, not ‘on demand,’ need storage.

!  We will likely electrify transportation

!  One Barrel Oil = 25,000 hrs human labor

!  25,000 hrs human labor = 12.5 yrs work

!  At $20/hr = $500,000 of labor/barrel

!  Oil at $110/barrel = 6 cents/kWh, or 500 times cheaper than human labor.

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s

Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of

Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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What Is AZ’s Electricity Mix?

!  Total in-state generation: ~27,000 MW (27GW) !  Total in-state consumption: ~16,000 MW

"  40-50% coal "  ~30% natural gas "  ~22% nuclear "  ~4% hydro

" AZ: less than 2% of electricity used in-state is solar !  Total in-state solar: 1,300-2,000 MW !  However, ~50% of the output is sold to California

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AZ: Electricity by Source 2012

Solar electricity generation: not enough!

Lots of coal electricity!

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AZ: Only 1-2% of Non-hydro Generation is Renewable in 2011

17 states were less than 1% RE in 2001, including AZ

Only 4 states less than 1% RE

in 2011, including AZ!

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=5750

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Arizona Republic, CO2 Pollution Soars in Ariz., new study says, Shaun McKinnon, 11/13/09; http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/11/13/20091113air-carbon1113.html

Includes GHGs from

exported power.

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s

Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of

Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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AZ Corporation Commission (ACC)

!  One of 7 states with a constitutional Comm’n !  One of 13 states with an elected Comm’n !  The ACC has absolute authority over energy policy !  Most states: Governor appoints Utilities

Commissioners !  In my experience, nearly every other state has more

transparency, and easier access to information. !  Complex process, need a lawyer or a lot of time,

energy and guts to participate meaningfully. !  Key: it’s all about underlying assumptions such as

fuel costs, discount rates, cost of capital, value of ‘externalities.’

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s

Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of

Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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Source: Energy Darwinism, Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, October 2013

GAS

-

FUEL

C O A L

NUCLEAR FUEL $ $ $

$ $ $

$ $ $

$ = Financing Costs

Fuel Costs

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Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis 2012, Subsidized v Unsubsidized

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http://www.raponline.org/event/the-importance-of-effective-energy-efficiency-cost-effectiveness

Adding Up The Costs of ALL Coal Regulations Would Triple the Cost of Coal Power.... But see next slide…

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20

APS’ RW Beck Study on the Value Of Distributed Energy

Operating Impacts and Valuation study

RW Beck study says the value of distributed solar is 7.9 to 14.11 cents/kWh in avoided costs for fuel, trans-mission, line losses, etc.

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Why Do the Costs of Electricity Vary So Much? !  Different “capacity factor” for each type of

plant: solar generates electricity during the day, natural gas has high and volatile fuel costs, coal compliance costs are increasing.

!  How much are fuel costs increasing/yr? !  How much will nuclear decommissioning? !  How much will the cost of solar, wind and

other clean energy solutions decrease? !  What about water supplies?

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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Two-thirds of Energy From Coal Plants Lost as Heat; Natural Gas Combined Cycle More Efficient

Generation and

distribution

Inefficient gas appliances

Inefficient electric

appliances

Waste Waste Waste

Fuel for electricity

Natural gas

Power, light, and

usable heat

02458605

Source: A Micro-Grid with PV, Fuel Cells, and Energy Efficiency, Tom Hoff, Clean Power Research.com

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AZ Imports 90% of Fossil Fuels

!  Imports all natural gas; $1.5 to 2.5 billion/year on natural gas for electricity and heating

!  Imports 66% of coal; coal imports $500 million/year; total coal costs $900 million/year

!  AZ TOTAL electricity fuel costs/year:

$2.5 - 3 billion !  Retail electricity costs in AZ 2010:

$7 billion http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.cfm?incfile=/state/seds/sep_sum/html/

rank_pr_cl_es.html&sid=AL

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s

Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of

Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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ARIZONA AVERAGE COAL COSTS 2004-2011

The average cost of coal in AZ is up

8%/year from 2004-2011

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Coal By The Numbers

!  U.S. utilities purchase ~$40 BN/yr coal !  $40 BN coal = $160 BN coal-fired

electricity !  $160 BN/yr in coal-fired electricity = $187

BN/yr in health damages alone, plus !  $530BN/yr total damages for life-cycle of

coal per Harvard School of Public Health Study

• http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/02/16/207534/life-cycle-study-coal-harvard-epstein-health/

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Coal’s Externalities / True Costs

Dr. Paul Epstein, Harvard study, Feb. 2011  “Full Cost Accounting for the Life Cycle of Coal”,

Coal-fired power plants produce 50% of U.S. electricity. Coal costs the U.S. $500B annually over its life cycle (extraction, transport, processing, and combustion)

• $74B in public health burdens in Appalachian communities • $187.5B from health costs of cancer, lung disease, and respiratory sickness in other parts of the U.S. • $29.3B from mercury impacts • $205B from carbon emissions’ climate impacts on land use, energy consumption, and food prices • $18B from the costs of cleaning up spills of toxic waste, the impact of coal on crops, property values, and tourism Externalities would raise costs of electricity from coal-fired plants, from $0.10 / kWh to $0.28 / kWh, shifting it from one of the cheapest sources of electricity to one of the most expensive.

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Cost of Natural Gas - More Volatile Since 2000

Hurricane Katrina

Oil at $147/barrell

NYMEX Cost Of

Natural Gas

11/13/13: $3.61

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Coal, Electric Utilities Spend Heavily on Lobbying

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/04/beyond-coal-plant-activism?page=3

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Health Effects from Burning Fossil Fuels are Enormous

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Health Benefits = 30x Cost of Clean Air Emissions Controls

http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/feb11/graphicsstack.pdf

Costs

Benefits

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$72.5 billion for Fossil Fuels

$12.2 billion for Wind and Solar

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Total 10-year spending: $645 million

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AZ Renewable Energy Standard (RES) is 15% by 2025

Year Requirement

2008 1.75 %

2011 3.00 %

2014 4.50 %

2017 7.00 %

2020 10.00 %

2024 14.00 %

After 2024 15.00 %

AZ’s RES means that 15% of the kilowatt-hours generated by regulated utilities come from ‘clean energy’: solar, wind, biomass, solar hot water, concentrating solar etc. by 2025… AZ’s RES is far lower than Colorado (30% by 2020), California (33% by 2020), Nevada (25% by 2025) New Mexico (20% by 2020)

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RPS Policies

Renewable portfolio standard

Renewable portfolio goal

www.dsireusa.org / February 2012

Solar water heating eligible *  †    Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables

Includes non-renewable alternative resources

WA: 15% x 2020*

CA: 33% x 2020

NV: 25% x 2025*

AZ: 15% x 2025

NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops)

HI: 40% x 2030

Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement

TX: 5,880 MW x 2015

UT: 20% by 2025*

CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*

MT: 15% x 2015

ND: 10% x 2015

SD: 10% x 2015

IA: 105 MW

MN: 25% x 2025 (Xcel: 30% x 2020)

MO: 15% x 2021

WI: Varies by utility; ~10% x 2015 statewide

MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015*

OH: 25% x 2025†

ME: 30% x 2000 New RE: 10% x 2017

NH: 23.8% x 2025

MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020

(+1% annually thereafter)

RI: 16% x 2020

CT: 27% x 2020 NY: 29% x 2015

NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021 + 5,316 GWh solar x 2026

PA: ~18% x 2021†

MD: 20% x 2022

DE: 25% x 2026*

DC: 20% x 2020

NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs) 10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)

VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x 2012;

(2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017

KS: 20% x 2020

OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)* 5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)

IL: 25% x 2025

29 states + DC and PR have

an RPS (8 states have goals)

OK: 15% x 2015

PR: 20% x 2035

WV: 25% x 2025*† VA: 15% x 2025*

DC

IN: 15% x 2025†

Renewable Portfolio Standards

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24 States Generate More Clean Electricity Than AZ! #  Why? #  Because the U.S. has nearly 6 times more wind

than solar – 60 GW wind v. 10 GW solar PV and CSP or Concentrating Solar Power).

#  In most other states, solar is far more expensive than in AZ because they don’t generate as much electricity per installed watt of solar.

#  See www.dsireusa.org/library by Justin Barnes, 3/6/12, RPS Update at Renewable Energy Markets Association webinar.

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Solar in New Jersey v. Arizona

New Jersey !  1,119 MW of solar energy currently installed !  2012: $1.3 billion invested !  Average installed price down 27% from last year. Arizona !  1,250 MW of solar currently installed !  2012: $590 million invested !  Average installed price down 1% from last year. Why? !  NJ PUC committed to solar, Hurricane Sandy driving more clean

energy, higher rebates even though AZ solar generates electricity 20-23% of hours/year v. NJ 15% of hours/year.

http://www.seia.org/policy/state-solar-policy

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AZ’s Commercial Sector Small Relative to CA and NJ

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Total Installed Solar Power Per Million People Low In the U.S. Relative to Germany, Spain, Czech Republic –

even Canada!

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Worldwide Solar Installations 2011

Saa http://cleantechnica.com/2012/12/11/renewable-energy-big-pic-including-34-charts-graphs/

Germany has 15x more solar per person

than the U.S.!

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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/08/130816-colorado-river-drought-lake-powell-mead-water-scarcity/#close-modal

National Geographic 8/16/13 Feds Slash Colorado River Release to Historic Lows

Colorado River 1999

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Colorado River 2013

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http://cdn.photo.lasvegassun.com/media/img/photos/2013/09/18/Waterlevels_web__.jpg

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AZ Reservoirs: at 45.7% Capacity

http://climas.arizona.edu/swco/sep2013/arizona-reservoir-volumes

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NM Reservoirs: at 16% Capacity

http://climas.arizona.edu/swco/sep2013/new-mexico-reservoir-volumes

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Lake Mead: Minimum Depth for Generating Power: 1065-1050 Feet !  http://serc.carleton.edu/earth_analysis/

image_analysis/introduction/day_5_part_1.html

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Water To Cool Power Plants = 50% of U.S. Water Withdrawals

!  The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports that 53% of all fresh surface water withdrawn for human use in 2005 was used by power plants.

!  In 2009 the water footprint of U.S. electricity was approximately 42 gallons per kilowatt hour (kWh) produced.

!  Average U.S. household requires 39,829 gallons of water for electricity; five times more than direct residential water use.

!  13% of total electricity used to move, treat and heat water.

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USGS: Thermoelectric Power 48-53% of Total U.S. Water Withdrawals

http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/htdocs/text-total.html

Public Supply: 11%

Domestic: Less than 1%

Irrigation: 34%

Livestock, Mining and Aquaculture: Less than 1% each

Industrial: 5%

Thermoelectric Power: 48%

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Source: Burning Our Rivers, The Water Footprint of Electricity, by Wendy Wilson et al

April 2012 http://www.rivernetwork.org/sites/default/files/BurningOurRivers_0.pdf

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Water Intensity of Electricity Generation

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Coal, s

team

Nuclea

r

Oil/gas

, stea

m

Combu

stion

turb

ine

Combin

ed cy

cle

Coal, I

GCC

Coal, I

GCC, with

carb

on ca

pture

Coal, P

C, with

carb

on ca

pture

NGCC, with

carb

on ca

pture

Solar C

SP, wet

cooli

ng

Solar C

SP, dry

cooli

ng

Solar P

VW

ind

Biomas

s, ste

am pl

ant, w

et co

oled

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oved

biom

ass-b

ased

stea

m plan

t, wet

coole

d

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rmal,

bina

ry, dr

y coo

ling

Geothe

rmal,

bina

ry, hy

brid

cooli

ng

Geothe

rmal,

bina

ry, w

et co

oling

gal/M

Wh

Conventional Generation

Emerging Technologies

Renewables

Source: Western Resource Advocates “The Energy-Water Nexus: A Case Study of the Arkansas River Basin” 2008

Water Intensity of Electricity Generation

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to

AZ’s Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of

Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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Local v. Out-of-State Dollars

$73 of $100 spent

on locally-owned biz

stays local; while only $43 stays if non-

local.

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AZ Solar Economic Potential: 6,000 -8,000 MW

Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/473744/three-charts-that-illustrate-why-solar-has-hit-a-true-tipping-point/

!  6,000 – 8,000 MW x $2.5 to 3 million/MW = $15-18 BILLION

!  To put this in

perspective, AZ spends $2-3 BILLION/year on fuel

!  Solar would displace

fuel costs forever!

!  If fuel costs stayed at $3 billion/year, and solar costs continued to fall, AZ could pay for the build-out with 5 years of fuel payments!

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Cracks in the Current System #  Germany: 59% renewable peak, grid fine. 10/30/13

#  Solar/wind means less power from coal, nuclear; don’t “cycle.” #  Solar steals peak demand, along with peak profits.

!  Germany's RWE: “massive erosion of…prices caused by solar PV” “may…threaten the company's survival.” "  RWE's share price has lost one-third of its value over 3 years.

#  Coal replaces natgas when the cost is $3.50-4.00/MMBtu. #  Natgas at $3.61 on 11/12/13.

#  Net Metering is a big battle in many states: Idaho, Georgia, California, Texas and Colorado. #  Idaho and Georgia PUC made pro-solar decisions. #  AZ still in the balance, likely to add $20/month fee for solar.

Source: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Germany-Hits-59-Renewable-Peak-Grid-Does-Not-Explode

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Cracks in the Current System

!  Lots of talk about the utility “death spiral” and the need for a new business model.

!  Utility profits based on volume rather than value. !  Very high fixed costs for utilities:

"  Nuclear has high labor costs; coal has high compliance costs; production costs rising.

"  As more people put on solar, less people to pay for coal. #  Fukushima: Huge unresolved issue with spent fuel that

needs to be moved; very difficult and potentially dangerous. 23 U.S. nuclear plants with same design.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/10/major-european-utility-set-for-dramatic-transformation?cmpid=WNL-Friday-November1-2013

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What Are the Obstacles to More Clean Energy in AZ?

#  Determine what is a solar kWh “worth”? 4 cents (utilities) or 22 cents (solar)

#  Monopoly utilities “own” geographic territories, so reduced competition.

#  AZ’s Renewable Energy Standard is very low. #  Utilities currently lose money on clean energy and

energy efficiency, so have no financial incentive. #  Economics of solar/wind different than coal, nuclear or

natural gas: clean energy costs are all up-front, while fuel-related costs are ~70% of lifetime fossil plant costs.

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What Are Possible Solutions? !  Provide access to the Grid: Community Solar, who

owns? !  Provide access to Capital

"  Support PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) "  Support Extension of Federal Section 1603 Cash-in-Lieu-

of-Tax-Benefit (30%) "  Solar securitization happening

!  Utilities: rate-base (own) solar and get a higher rate of return for clean electrons

!  Include Cost of Environmental/Health Externalities "  Pay now or pay later

!  Consider re-evaluating “avoided cost” for utilities "  Doesn’t include value of water, health benefits "  Doesn’t include time-value of solar

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What Are Possible Solutions?

!  Increase the REST from 15% by 2025 to ? !  Level the playing field for subsidies !  Use Life-Cycle Analysis !  When Modeling, Use a Range of Costs/Risks/

Discount Rates !  Allow the use of Master Limited Partnerships for

clean energy – not just oil, gas and biofuels. !  Increase Pilot Programs for Solar Hot Water,

Combined Heat and Power, Biodigesters etc. !  Solar Hot Water is a HUGE unused resource.

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Section 1603: $581 Million Worth of Projects in Arizona To Date !  Section 1603 is a cash grant in lieu of taking a 30% solar tax

investment tax credit.

!  Section 1603 expired on 12/31/11.

!  AZ has rec’d $581 million in Section 1603 projects, mostly solar. http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/recovery/Pages/1603.aspx

!  The Solar ITC (Investment Tax Credit) expires in 2016 and should be extended.

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/us-congress-pulls-the-plug-on-section-1603-treasury-program_100005372/#ixzz1xWjx07I9

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s

Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large

Amounts of Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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Regional Clean Energy: What Does It Mean? !  Lots of studies going on right now, very complex

issues in predicting what will happen if power is shared regionally

!  April 2013 report on Energy Imbalance Market (Western states) that sharing power regionally would save $94-$294 million the first year. "  Why? Because when utilities share power they need less

‘reserves’, i.e. backup power. "  With more geographic diversity and in greater amounts,

solar and wind are more reliable. !  Bottom line: sharing power can reduce a utility’s

need for more power plants; thus reduce profits.

http://www.westgov.org/PUCeim/meetings/2013sprg/briefing/present/m_milligan.pdf

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The Solar “Duck” Graph

http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Apr5_2013InitialCommentsWorkshopIssuesR11-10-023.pdf

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Agenda

!  Background and Key Concepts !  AZ's Electricity Mix !  The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) !  What does electricity "cost“? !  Coal and Natural Gas in AZ !  Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s

Clean Energy Future !  Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of

Distributed and/or Clean Energy !  The ACC and the public sector

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The ACC and the Public Sector

!  Need more transparency, better website, ability to track dockets more easily

!  Need more stakeholder processes !  LOTS at stake!

"  Jobs "  Water "  Climate change "  Cost of electricity

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Wrap-Up

!  AZ in-state electricity: 2% solar, 50% coal !  AZ sends $2.5-3 billion/year out of state for

coal/natural gas. !  Net Metering debate: what is the 'value' of a

solar kWh? !  Clean Energy needs:

"  Access to capital "  Access to the grid "  Stable, predictable policies

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Thank You!

!  Please don’t hesitate to call or email me !  I love these issues and am happy to explain !  I believe in AZ’s clean energy future!

Nancy LaPlaca [email protected]

480-359-8442

“The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades.” Timbuk 3