arizona s electricity future...five things to remember 1. net/energy available for work”...
TRANSCRIPT
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Arizona’s Electricity Future
Nancy LaPlaca LaPlaca & Associates
[email protected] 480-359-8442
November 14, 2013
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Who Am I?
! ASU: Bachelor Fine Arts, J.D., College of Law ! 3.5 years as Policy Advisor to AZ Corporation
Commissioner Paul Newman ! Staff co-chair for the Environment Committee
at the National Association of Regulatory Commissioners
! 3 years as public interest intervener at Colorado Public Utilities Commission
! 5 years Congressional staff for AZ Representatives Morris K. Udall and Karan English
! 6 years (total) at AZ Court of Appeals, AZ Supreme Court, State Senate, Criminal Justice Commission
! Management and technology consulting ! Love to hike, swim, sing and play guitar and
piano; read and listen to books.
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s
Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of
Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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Five Things To Remember
1. Net/Energy Available for Work” declining. 2. AZ imports 90% of electricity fuels. No one knows
what fuel will cost in the future, can rise quickly. 3. Solar, wind have higher up-front but lower long-
term costs, less risk. 4. Electricity production: from large, central-station to
distributed, closer to load; business models under growing stress.
5. Damages from “externalities” such as water and air pollution, mortality, lost work days, childhood asthma are known; a range of costs could be included in the “cost” of electricity.
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Background: Key Concepts
ENERGY v CAPACITY " Energy = kWh, MWh – usable energy " Capacity Factor = output over time
Why is this important? Because power plants have different capacity factors: " Nuclear: 93% Capacity Factor (CF) " Coal: 80% CF " Wind: 30-40% CF " Solar: 20-23% CF (in AZ) " Geothermal: 92% CF
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Energy, Electricity and “Net” Energy
! Energy: liquid transportation fuels ! Electricity: coal, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind, hydropower
" Currently not much overlap, but will change as we “electrify” transportation with light rail, electric cars, etc.
! Net Energy = the energy left after using energy to drill, mine, transport, compress, combust, build, etc.
! Also called E-ROI (Energy Return on Investment) ! Energy costs are going to rise: Do we invest in renewables,
with higher capital costs, or fossil fuel plants, with increasing fuel costs and high Operation and Maintenance?
! “Externalities” increasingly important: global warming, water scarcity; also enormous health effects from fossil fuels we’ve ignored for decades
! Environmental justice issues: local, U.S., global
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The easiest-to-get resources are extracted
first. Example: deepwater v. onshore
drilling for oil.
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Energy Slaves?
! ~8 calories of oil embedded in every single calorie of food delivered
! Renewable energy (solar, wind) not as dense, not ‘on demand,’ need storage.
! We will likely electrify transportation
! One Barrel Oil = 25,000 hrs human labor
! 25,000 hrs human labor = 12.5 yrs work
! At $20/hr = $500,000 of labor/barrel
! Oil at $110/barrel = 6 cents/kWh, or 500 times cheaper than human labor.
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s
Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of
Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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What Is AZ’s Electricity Mix?
! Total in-state generation: ~27,000 MW (27GW) ! Total in-state consumption: ~16,000 MW
" 40-50% coal " ~30% natural gas " ~22% nuclear " ~4% hydro
" AZ: less than 2% of electricity used in-state is solar ! Total in-state solar: 1,300-2,000 MW ! However, ~50% of the output is sold to California
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AZ: Electricity by Source 2012
Solar electricity generation: not enough!
Lots of coal electricity!
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AZ: Only 1-2% of Non-hydro Generation is Renewable in 2011
17 states were less than 1% RE in 2001, including AZ
Only 4 states less than 1% RE
in 2011, including AZ!
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=5750
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Arizona Republic, CO2 Pollution Soars in Ariz., new study says, Shaun McKinnon, 11/13/09; http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2009/11/13/20091113air-carbon1113.html
Includes GHGs from
exported power.
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s
Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of
Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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AZ Corporation Commission (ACC)
! One of 7 states with a constitutional Comm’n ! One of 13 states with an elected Comm’n ! The ACC has absolute authority over energy policy ! Most states: Governor appoints Utilities
Commissioners ! In my experience, nearly every other state has more
transparency, and easier access to information. ! Complex process, need a lawyer or a lot of time,
energy and guts to participate meaningfully. ! Key: it’s all about underlying assumptions such as
fuel costs, discount rates, cost of capital, value of ‘externalities.’
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s
Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of
Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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Source: Energy Darwinism, Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, October 2013
GAS
-
FUEL
C O A L
NUCLEAR FUEL $ $ $
$ $ $
$ $ $
$ = Financing Costs
Fuel Costs
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Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis 2012, Subsidized v Unsubsidized
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http://www.raponline.org/event/the-importance-of-effective-energy-efficiency-cost-effectiveness
Adding Up The Costs of ALL Coal Regulations Would Triple the Cost of Coal Power.... But see next slide…
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20
APS’ RW Beck Study on the Value Of Distributed Energy
Operating Impacts and Valuation study
RW Beck study says the value of distributed solar is 7.9 to 14.11 cents/kWh in avoided costs for fuel, trans-mission, line losses, etc.
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Why Do the Costs of Electricity Vary So Much? ! Different “capacity factor” for each type of
plant: solar generates electricity during the day, natural gas has high and volatile fuel costs, coal compliance costs are increasing.
! How much are fuel costs increasing/yr? ! How much will nuclear decommissioning? ! How much will the cost of solar, wind and
other clean energy solutions decrease? ! What about water supplies?
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National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future
Two-thirds of Energy From Coal Plants Lost as Heat; Natural Gas Combined Cycle More Efficient
Generation and
distribution
Inefficient gas appliances
Inefficient electric
appliances
Waste Waste Waste
Fuel for electricity
Natural gas
Power, light, and
usable heat
02458605
Source: A Micro-Grid with PV, Fuel Cells, and Energy Efficiency, Tom Hoff, Clean Power Research.com
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AZ Imports 90% of Fossil Fuels
! Imports all natural gas; $1.5 to 2.5 billion/year on natural gas for electricity and heating
! Imports 66% of coal; coal imports $500 million/year; total coal costs $900 million/year
! AZ TOTAL electricity fuel costs/year:
$2.5 - 3 billion ! Retail electricity costs in AZ 2010:
$7 billion http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.cfm?incfile=/state/seds/sep_sum/html/
rank_pr_cl_es.html&sid=AL
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s
Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of
Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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ARIZONA AVERAGE COAL COSTS 2004-2011
The average cost of coal in AZ is up
8%/year from 2004-2011
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Coal By The Numbers
! U.S. utilities purchase ~$40 BN/yr coal ! $40 BN coal = $160 BN coal-fired
electricity ! $160 BN/yr in coal-fired electricity = $187
BN/yr in health damages alone, plus ! $530BN/yr total damages for life-cycle of
coal per Harvard School of Public Health Study
• http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/02/16/207534/life-cycle-study-coal-harvard-epstein-health/
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Coal’s Externalities / True Costs
Dr. Paul Epstein, Harvard study, Feb. 2011 “Full Cost Accounting for the Life Cycle of Coal”,
Coal-fired power plants produce 50% of U.S. electricity. Coal costs the U.S. $500B annually over its life cycle (extraction, transport, processing, and combustion)
• $74B in public health burdens in Appalachian communities • $187.5B from health costs of cancer, lung disease, and respiratory sickness in other parts of the U.S. • $29.3B from mercury impacts • $205B from carbon emissions’ climate impacts on land use, energy consumption, and food prices • $18B from the costs of cleaning up spills of toxic waste, the impact of coal on crops, property values, and tourism Externalities would raise costs of electricity from coal-fired plants, from $0.10 / kWh to $0.28 / kWh, shifting it from one of the cheapest sources of electricity to one of the most expensive.
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Cost of Natural Gas - More Volatile Since 2000
Hurricane Katrina
Oil at $147/barrell
NYMEX Cost Of
Natural Gas
11/13/13: $3.61
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Coal, Electric Utilities Spend Heavily on Lobbying
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/04/beyond-coal-plant-activism?page=3
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Health Effects from Burning Fossil Fuels are Enormous
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Health Benefits = 30x Cost of Clean Air Emissions Controls
http://www.epa.gov/air/sect812/feb11/graphicsstack.pdf
Costs
Benefits
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$72.5 billion for Fossil Fuels
$12.2 billion for Wind and Solar
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Total 10-year spending: $645 million
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AZ Renewable Energy Standard (RES) is 15% by 2025
Year Requirement
2008 1.75 %
2011 3.00 %
2014 4.50 %
2017 7.00 %
2020 10.00 %
2024 14.00 %
After 2024 15.00 %
AZ’s RES means that 15% of the kilowatt-hours generated by regulated utilities come from ‘clean energy’: solar, wind, biomass, solar hot water, concentrating solar etc. by 2025… AZ’s RES is far lower than Colorado (30% by 2020), California (33% by 2020), Nevada (25% by 2025) New Mexico (20% by 2020)
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RPS Policies
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewable portfolio goal
www.dsireusa.org / February 2012
Solar water heating eligible * † Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% x 2020*
CA: 33% x 2020
NV: 25% x 2025*
AZ: 15% x 2025
NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs) 10% x 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% x 2030
Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% x 2015
ND: 10% x 2015
SD: 10% x 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% x 2025 (Xcel: 30% x 2020)
MO: 15% x 2021
WI: Varies by utility; ~10% x 2015 statewide
MI: 10% & 1,100 MW x 2015*
OH: 25% x 2025†
ME: 30% x 2000 New RE: 10% x 2017
NH: 23.8% x 2025
MA: 22.1% x 2020 New RE: 15% x 2020
(+1% annually thereafter)
RI: 16% x 2020
CT: 27% x 2020 NY: 29% x 2015
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021 + 5,316 GWh solar x 2026
PA: ~18% x 2021†
MD: 20% x 2022
DE: 25% x 2026*
DC: 20% x 2020
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs) 10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales x 2012;
(2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017
KS: 20% x 2020
OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)* 5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)
IL: 25% x 2025
29 states + DC and PR have
an RPS (8 states have goals)
OK: 15% x 2015
PR: 20% x 2035
WV: 25% x 2025*† VA: 15% x 2025*
DC
IN: 15% x 2025†
Renewable Portfolio Standards
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24 States Generate More Clean Electricity Than AZ! # Why? # Because the U.S. has nearly 6 times more wind
than solar – 60 GW wind v. 10 GW solar PV and CSP or Concentrating Solar Power).
# In most other states, solar is far more expensive than in AZ because they don’t generate as much electricity per installed watt of solar.
# See www.dsireusa.org/library by Justin Barnes, 3/6/12, RPS Update at Renewable Energy Markets Association webinar.
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Solar in New Jersey v. Arizona
New Jersey ! 1,119 MW of solar energy currently installed ! 2012: $1.3 billion invested ! Average installed price down 27% from last year. Arizona ! 1,250 MW of solar currently installed ! 2012: $590 million invested ! Average installed price down 1% from last year. Why? ! NJ PUC committed to solar, Hurricane Sandy driving more clean
energy, higher rebates even though AZ solar generates electricity 20-23% of hours/year v. NJ 15% of hours/year.
http://www.seia.org/policy/state-solar-policy
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AZ’s Commercial Sector Small Relative to CA and NJ
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Total Installed Solar Power Per Million People Low In the U.S. Relative to Germany, Spain, Czech Republic –
even Canada!
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Worldwide Solar Installations 2011
Saa http://cleantechnica.com/2012/12/11/renewable-energy-big-pic-including-34-charts-graphs/
Germany has 15x more solar per person
than the U.S.!
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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/08/130816-colorado-river-drought-lake-powell-mead-water-scarcity/#close-modal
National Geographic 8/16/13 Feds Slash Colorado River Release to Historic Lows
Colorado River 1999
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Colorado River 2013
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http://cdn.photo.lasvegassun.com/media/img/photos/2013/09/18/Waterlevels_web__.jpg
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AZ Reservoirs: at 45.7% Capacity
http://climas.arizona.edu/swco/sep2013/arizona-reservoir-volumes
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NM Reservoirs: at 16% Capacity
http://climas.arizona.edu/swco/sep2013/new-mexico-reservoir-volumes
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Lake Mead: Minimum Depth for Generating Power: 1065-1050 Feet ! http://serc.carleton.edu/earth_analysis/
image_analysis/introduction/day_5_part_1.html
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Water To Cool Power Plants = 50% of U.S. Water Withdrawals
! The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports that 53% of all fresh surface water withdrawn for human use in 2005 was used by power plants.
! In 2009 the water footprint of U.S. electricity was approximately 42 gallons per kilowatt hour (kWh) produced.
! Average U.S. household requires 39,829 gallons of water for electricity; five times more than direct residential water use.
! 13% of total electricity used to move, treat and heat water.
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USGS: Thermoelectric Power 48-53% of Total U.S. Water Withdrawals
http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/htdocs/text-total.html
Public Supply: 11%
Domestic: Less than 1%
Irrigation: 34%
Livestock, Mining and Aquaculture: Less than 1% each
Industrial: 5%
Thermoelectric Power: 48%
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Source: Burning Our Rivers, The Water Footprint of Electricity, by Wendy Wilson et al
April 2012 http://www.rivernetwork.org/sites/default/files/BurningOurRivers_0.pdf
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Water Intensity of Electricity Generation
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Coal, s
team
Nuclea
r
Oil/gas
, stea
m
Combu
stion
turb
ine
Combin
ed cy
cle
Coal, I
GCC
Coal, I
GCC, with
carb
on ca
pture
Coal, P
C, with
carb
on ca
pture
NGCC, with
carb
on ca
pture
Solar C
SP, wet
cooli
ng
Solar C
SP, dry
cooli
ng
Solar P
VW
ind
Biomas
s, ste
am pl
ant, w
et co
oled
Impr
oved
biom
ass-b
ased
stea
m plan
t, wet
coole
d
Geothe
rmal,
bina
ry, dr
y coo
ling
Geothe
rmal,
bina
ry, hy
brid
cooli
ng
Geothe
rmal,
bina
ry, w
et co
oling
gal/M
Wh
Conventional Generation
Emerging Technologies
Renewables
Source: Western Resource Advocates “The Energy-Water Nexus: A Case Study of the Arkansas River Basin” 2008
Water Intensity of Electricity Generation
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to
AZ’s Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of
Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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Local v. Out-of-State Dollars
$73 of $100 spent
on locally-owned biz
stays local; while only $43 stays if non-
local.
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AZ Solar Economic Potential: 6,000 -8,000 MW
Source: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/04/30/473744/three-charts-that-illustrate-why-solar-has-hit-a-true-tipping-point/
! 6,000 – 8,000 MW x $2.5 to 3 million/MW = $15-18 BILLION
! To put this in
perspective, AZ spends $2-3 BILLION/year on fuel
! Solar would displace
fuel costs forever!
! If fuel costs stayed at $3 billion/year, and solar costs continued to fall, AZ could pay for the build-out with 5 years of fuel payments!
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Cracks in the Current System # Germany: 59% renewable peak, grid fine. 10/30/13
# Solar/wind means less power from coal, nuclear; don’t “cycle.” # Solar steals peak demand, along with peak profits.
! Germany's RWE: “massive erosion of…prices caused by solar PV” “may…threaten the company's survival.” " RWE's share price has lost one-third of its value over 3 years.
# Coal replaces natgas when the cost is $3.50-4.00/MMBtu. # Natgas at $3.61 on 11/12/13.
# Net Metering is a big battle in many states: Idaho, Georgia, California, Texas and Colorado. # Idaho and Georgia PUC made pro-solar decisions. # AZ still in the balance, likely to add $20/month fee for solar.
Source: http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Germany-Hits-59-Renewable-Peak-Grid-Does-Not-Explode
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Cracks in the Current System
! Lots of talk about the utility “death spiral” and the need for a new business model.
! Utility profits based on volume rather than value. ! Very high fixed costs for utilities:
" Nuclear has high labor costs; coal has high compliance costs; production costs rising.
" As more people put on solar, less people to pay for coal. # Fukushima: Huge unresolved issue with spent fuel that
needs to be moved; very difficult and potentially dangerous. 23 U.S. nuclear plants with same design.
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/10/major-european-utility-set-for-dramatic-transformation?cmpid=WNL-Friday-November1-2013
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What Are the Obstacles to More Clean Energy in AZ?
# Determine what is a solar kWh “worth”? 4 cents (utilities) or 22 cents (solar)
# Monopoly utilities “own” geographic territories, so reduced competition.
# AZ’s Renewable Energy Standard is very low. # Utilities currently lose money on clean energy and
energy efficiency, so have no financial incentive. # Economics of solar/wind different than coal, nuclear or
natural gas: clean energy costs are all up-front, while fuel-related costs are ~70% of lifetime fossil plant costs.
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What Are Possible Solutions? ! Provide access to the Grid: Community Solar, who
owns? ! Provide access to Capital
" Support PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) " Support Extension of Federal Section 1603 Cash-in-Lieu-
of-Tax-Benefit (30%) " Solar securitization happening
! Utilities: rate-base (own) solar and get a higher rate of return for clean electrons
! Include Cost of Environmental/Health Externalities " Pay now or pay later
! Consider re-evaluating “avoided cost” for utilities " Doesn’t include value of water, health benefits " Doesn’t include time-value of solar
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What Are Possible Solutions?
! Increase the REST from 15% by 2025 to ? ! Level the playing field for subsidies ! Use Life-Cycle Analysis ! When Modeling, Use a Range of Costs/Risks/
Discount Rates ! Allow the use of Master Limited Partnerships for
clean energy – not just oil, gas and biofuels. ! Increase Pilot Programs for Solar Hot Water,
Combined Heat and Power, Biodigesters etc. ! Solar Hot Water is a HUGE unused resource.
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Section 1603: $581 Million Worth of Projects in Arizona To Date ! Section 1603 is a cash grant in lieu of taking a 30% solar tax
investment tax credit.
! Section 1603 expired on 12/31/11.
! AZ has rec’d $581 million in Section 1603 projects, mostly solar. http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/recovery/Pages/1603.aspx
! The Solar ITC (Investment Tax Credit) expires in 2016 and should be extended.
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/us-congress-pulls-the-plug-on-section-1603-treasury-program_100005372/#ixzz1xWjx07I9
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s
Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large
Amounts of Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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Regional Clean Energy: What Does It Mean? ! Lots of studies going on right now, very complex
issues in predicting what will happen if power is shared regionally
! April 2013 report on Energy Imbalance Market (Western states) that sharing power regionally would save $94-$294 million the first year. " Why? Because when utilities share power they need less
‘reserves’, i.e. backup power. " With more geographic diversity and in greater amounts,
solar and wind are more reliable. ! Bottom line: sharing power can reduce a utility’s
need for more power plants; thus reduce profits.
http://www.westgov.org/PUCeim/meetings/2013sprg/briefing/present/m_milligan.pdf
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The Solar “Duck” Graph
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Apr5_2013InitialCommentsWorkshopIssuesR11-10-023.pdf
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Agenda
! Background and Key Concepts ! AZ's Electricity Mix ! The AZ Corporation Commission (ACC) ! What does electricity "cost“? ! Coal and Natural Gas in AZ ! Huge Jobs Potential -- and Possible Threats-- to AZ’s
Clean Energy Future ! Regional Clean Energy: Integrating Large Amounts of
Distributed and/or Clean Energy ! The ACC and the public sector
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The ACC and the Public Sector
! Need more transparency, better website, ability to track dockets more easily
! Need more stakeholder processes ! LOTS at stake!
" Jobs " Water " Climate change " Cost of electricity
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Wrap-Up
! AZ in-state electricity: 2% solar, 50% coal ! AZ sends $2.5-3 billion/year out of state for
coal/natural gas. ! Net Metering debate: what is the 'value' of a
solar kWh? ! Clean Energy needs:
" Access to capital " Access to the grid " Stable, predictable policies
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Thank You!
! Please don’t hesitate to call or email me ! I love these issues and am happy to explain ! I believe in AZ’s clean energy future!
Nancy LaPlaca [email protected]
480-359-8442
“The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades.” Timbuk 3