arizona republic editorial board presentation

7/28/2019 Arizona Republic Editorial Board Presentation

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#13101

Data from a statewide survey of 500 registered voters in Arizona,

conducted March 19-21, 2013.



ARIZONA STATEWIDE SURVEY – MARCH 2013 2

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the

key findings of a statewide telephone survey

conducted in Arizona. The survey was completedMarch 19-21, 2013 among 500 registered voters and

has a margin of error of ±4.38%.

Nicole McCleskey was the principal researcher onthis project. Becky Kramer was the project director

and Brian Fraser provided analytical support.




Name ID & Images - Programs

86%92% 96%

82% 80% 80%

44%53%

59%

39%46% 43%

25% 25%17% 16% 14% 17%

Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

Heard Of Favorable Unfavorable

+19% +23%

* Split Sample (N=250)

Description: … that is the health care program for low income families, children, low income elderly and the disabled.

+28% +32%+42% +26%

Arizona Medicaid Program*by Party

Arizona Medicaid Program, with Description*By Party




Awareness of Brewer’s Medicaid Plan is

fairly high for its short news life.

“Medicaid is the federal and state government’s program to provide health care to children, low income families, low income elderly and disabled people.

How much have you seen, read or heard about Governor Brewer's Medicaid plan to provide

health coverage to more low‐income adults under the national health care reform law?”

43%

57%

A Lot/Some Not Much/Nothing

By Party

A Lot/

Some

Not Much/

Nothing

Republican 46% 53%

Independent 39% 61%

Democrat 45% 55%

GOP/ID Tea Party 42% 58%

-14%




The early verdict is quite supportive.

47%

17%

36%

Support Oppose Don't Know / Haven't Heard About Plan

+30%

“And, based on what you have seen, read or heard, do you support or oppose

Governor Brewer's Medicaid plan to provide health coverage to more

low‐income adults under the national health care reform law?”


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/arizona-republic-editorial-board-presentation 7/35 ARIZONA STATEWIDE SURVEY – MARCH 2013 7

Voters across party are initially more supportive,

save for the harder core Tea Party members.

Unaided - Governor Brewer’s Medicaid Plan by Party

46% 43%49%

22%25%

12% 12%

45%

Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

GOP/ID More

Tea Party

(10%)Support Oppose

+37% -23%+21% +31%



Those who have heard the most about the plan at this early

stage are very supportive of the approach.

Unaided - Governor Brewer’s Medicaid Plan by Awareness of Plan

69%73%

28%30%

19%13%

A Lot

(12%)

Some

(31%)

Not Much/Nothing

(57%)

Support Oppose

+15%+39% +54%



Considering the Options…

“I would like to read you some different proposals the Governor considered in

developing her Medicaid plan. Please tell me which proposal you prefer .”

Proposal G would restore funding under Proposition 204 that was passed by

the voters of Arizona in 2000 requiring the state to provide Medicaid coverage

to childless adults making up to $11,000 a year. The program was frozen in

2011 due to the recession and the state’s budget deficit. This proposal would

fund the program once again at a cost of $450 million to the state each year.

Proposal H would expand Medicaid funding to cover childless adults making

up to $15,000 a year at a cost of $150 million to the state each year. The

program costs the state less money even though it covers more low‐income

people because the federal government would provide more money to thestate to pay for it.

Do you believe the state should not do anything to restore or expand

Medicaid funding.



Proposal G / Restore fundingunder Proposition 204

A majority of voters feel the expansion makes sense.

Proposal H / Expand

Medicaid funding

Do nothing to restore or

expand funding



Even a plurality of GOPers support expansion.

Medicaid Proposals

by Party Republican Independent Democrat

Proposal G / Restore funding

under Proposition 20424% 24% 16%

Proposal H / Expand

Medicaid funding39% 54% 69%


expand funding33% 17% 9%



Medicaid Proposalsby Republican Tea Party Subgroups

GOP/ID MoreRepublican

GOP/ID MoreTea Party

GOP/Non-TeaParty

Proposal G / Restore funding

under Proposition 20428% 19% 26%

Proposal H / Expand

Medicaid funding36% 29% 44%


expand funding27% 50% 25%

The Tea Party die-hards believe in the do-nothing approach,

while other GOPers see the wisdom behind expansion.



Medicaid Proposals by Region

Pima:Restore: 23%

Expand: 52%

Nothing: 13%

North:

Restore: 16%

Expand: 40%

Nothing: 37%

Maricopa:

Restore: 23%

Expand: 53%

Nothing: 20%

South:Restore: 15%

Expand: 65%

Nothing: 17%

North

Maricopa

South

Pima

Rural

Counties:Restore: 16%

Expand: 51%

Nothing: 28%



Brewer’s attachment to expansion is a positive asset.

52%

28%

18%

More Likely Less Likely No Difference

+24%

“If you knew that Governor Brewer supported Proposal H to expand Medicaid to

cover those making $15,000 a year at a cost of $150 million a year to the state,

would you be more likely or less likely to support the proposal?”



It provides a leg up across party.

Gov. Brewer Supports Proposal H by Party

51% 50%53%

35%

25% 24%

Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

More Likely Less Likely

+25% +29%+16%



Voters express their dissatisfaction with Arizona schools.

“Students are often given

the grades A, B, C, D and

F to rate the quality of

their work at school.

Suppose the public schools themselves were

graded in the same

manner. What grade

would you give the Arizona public schools?”

21%

38%32%

A/B C D/F



Parents are slightly more forgiving.

37%

19% 18%

30%

50%

37%

26%29%

34%

Dads

(17%)

Moms

(14%)

Non-Parent

(68%)

A/B C D/F

Public School Grades by Parental Status



Four out of ten voters have heard about Common Core

and are generally supportive.

40%

60%


37%

16%

38%

Agree Disagree Haven't Heard Anything

“How much, if anything, have you seen, read, or

heard about Arizona’s adoption and implementation of what are known as common

core standards in our K‐12 education system?”

“Based on what you have seen, read or heard, do

you agree or disagree with the adoption and implementation of common core standards?”

+21%-20%

16%

A Lot




Parents are solid supporters of Common Core.

49%

35%

51%

65%

Parents

(31%)

Non-Parents

(68%)


42%

34%

17% 16%

Parents

(31%)

Non-Parents

(68%)

Agree Disagree

Awareness of Common Core Standards

By Parental Status

Adoption of Common Core Standards

By Parental Status

+25% +18%-2% -30%




Support for Common Core is overwhelming

using this description.

“Let me describe Arizona’s common corestandards to you and then please tell me if

you agree or disagree with their

implementation in Arizona...

Arizona joined with 46 other states indeveloping and adopting new standards in

reading, writing and math for grades K

through 12. These standards will ensure

Arizona students have the academic

knowledge and skills they need to be

successful in college, a career, and in life.

The standards will focus more on teaching

critical thinking, problem solving and

effective communication skills.”

Strongly Agree 52%

Somewhat Agree 31%

Somewhat Disagree 6%

Strongly Disagree 9%

Total Agree 83%

Total Disagree 15%




Support crosses party lines, extending to Tea Party IDers.

Common Core Explanation by Party

78%84%

89%

77%

19%15%

9%

21%

Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

GOP/ID More

Tea Party

(10%)Agree Disagree

+80% +56%+59% +69%




Parents and non-parents agree on implementation.

Common Core Explanation by Parental Status

86%81%

12%16%

Parents

(31%)

Non-Parents

(68%)

Agree Disagree

+65%+74%




Paired Statements.

“Other people say common core standards are not state standards.

They are federal standards developed by Washington bureaucrats and with United Nations input designed to control and nationalize our

education system instead of leaving control in the hands of parents and

local communities.”

“Let me read you two points of view about the common core standards

and please tell me which one you agree with more...”

“Some people say that the AIMS standards previously used in Arizona

were insufficient to prepare students for work and college. Six out of

ten students needed remedial courses in college and 22% of our

students were not graduating. These new common core standards help

our students develop the skills they need to be prepared for college or graduate ready for the workforce.”




A solid majority continue in their support of Common Core.

Common Core Points of View by Party

56%

44%

61%65%

52%

36%

45%

31%27%

35%

Overall Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

GOP/ID More

Tea Party

(10%)AIMS Standards Insufficient Not State Standards

+30% +17%+20% -1% +38%




Parents are strong Core advocates.

Common Core Points of View by Parental Status

64%

52%

30%38%

Yes

(31%)

No

(68%)

AIMS Standards Insufficient Not State Standards

+34% +14%




Absolutely voters believe the testing regime

should match the curriculum.

73%

19%

Should Change Should Not Change

+54%

“Arizona has already begun to implement Common Core standards throughout the state

but has not changed the testing system to match the new standards. Do you believe

Arizona should or should not change the testing system to match the new standards?”




Agreement on testing extends to all parties.

Testing System by Party

70%75% 78%

55%

22%16% 15%

34%

Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

GOP/ID More

Tea Party

(10%)Should Change Should Not Change

+59% +21%+48% +63%




Confronted with opposition arguments to testing change

does nothing to shake a regime change.

Arizona should change the state’s testing system in a

way that measures the progress of students based on

what they are learning in the classroom. This new

testing will track every student beginning in the 3rdgrade and moves beyond 10th grade literacy to ensure

that students graduate with the skills they need for

college or the workforce.

Arizona should keep the current testing system. It is less

costly to the state, is focused on Arizona specifically,

and ensures that students have mastered at least basic

10th grade level skills before they graduate.

“Which point of view do you agree with more…”




Again, there is support on both sides of the aisle.

Testing System Point of Views by Party

72% 69%76%

57%

25% 26%21%

39%

Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

GOP/ID More

Tea Party

(10%)

Change Testing System Keep Current Testing System

+43% +18%+47% +55%




Describing the Gang of 8 Proposal.

“Talking about another issue, and that is immigration... Now I'd like to describe an immigration

reform plan and get your reaction. The plan has four main elements:

Overall, do you support or oppose of this immigration reform plan?”

Create a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already here

that is contingent upon securing the border and combating visa overstays.

Improving our legal immigration system and attracting the world’s best

and brightest.

A strong employment verification system that holds employers

accountable for knowingly hiring undocumented workers and makes it

more difficult to falsify documents to obtain employment.

Admitting new workers only when Americans cannot be found to fill jobs

and protect the rights of workers.




Support is extraordinary across party lines.

Immigration Reform Plan by Party

72% 74% 75%69% 68%

26% 25% 25% 28% 30%

Overall Republican

(39%)

Independent

(25%)

Democrat

(33%)

GOP/ID More

Tea Party

(10%)Support Oppose

+50% +38%+46% +41%+49%

36%Strongly

41%Strongly

28%Strongly

39%Strongly

41%Strongly




White and Hispanic voters find common ground.

Immigration Reform Plan by Ethnicity

71%76%

26% 24%

White

(71%)

Hispanic

(18%)

Support Oppose

+45% +52%



All regions support the bi-partisan plan.

Immigration Reform Plan by Region

65%74%

64%

78%

65%

35%

23%

33%

21%

34%

North

(14%)

Maricopa

(59%)

South

(11%)

Pima

(16%)

Rural Counties

(26%)

Support Oppose

+51% +57%+31% +31%+30%

arizona republic editorial board presentation

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