argus asia-pacific productspage 11 of 11 copyright © 2012 argus media ltd argus asia-pacific...

Argus Asia-Pacific ProductsAsia-Pacific products prices and analysis

of 11 Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd

Overview

Prices at a glance, Overview 1Gasoline commentary and prices 2Naphtha commentary and prices 3Jet-kerosine commentary and prices 4Gasoil commentary and prices 5Fuel oil and LSWR commentary and prices 6China fuel oil, bunkers and marine fuels 7Freight rates 8Crack spreads and deals done 9Tenders, methodology and announcements 10Market news 11

Prices at a glance

Contents

Product prices mostly fell. India’s MRPL sold naphtha at its highest level so far this year. Vietnam sought more gaso-line and gasoil imports. Jet fuel arbitrage economics to Europe improved. Taiwan’s CPC offered LSFO, a refinery feedstock.

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01-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug 07-Sep

Gasoil crack spread $/bl

Issue 12A - 173 Friday 07 September 2012

Singapore $/blDiff. to Mops

Low High +/-low high

97R gasoline - - 128.55 128.75 +2.30

95R gasoline +0.90 +1.10 125.65 125.85 +2.30

92R gasoline +0.70 +0.90 121.95 122.15 +2.30

Naphtha +2.20 +2.40 109.20 109.35 +0.13

Jet-kerosine +1.65 +1.85 133.70 133.90 -0.45

Gasoil 0.5% +0.80 +1.00 130.90 131.10 -0.80

Gasoil 0.25% +2.10 +2.30 132.20 132.40 -0.60

Gasoil 0.05% +2.60 +2.80 132.70 132.90 -0.75

Gasoil 0.005% +3.25 +3.45 133.35 133.55 -0.45

Gasoil 0.001% +3.80 +4.00 133.90 134.10 -0.45

HSFO 180cst ($/t) +4.25 +5.25 691.50 692.50 -1.25

HSFO 380cst ($/t) +2.75 +3.75 675.50 676.50 -1.75

South Korea $/blDiff. to Mops


Jet-kerosine +0.90 +1.10 132.95 133.15 -0.40

Gasoil 0.5% +0.75 +0.95 130.85 131.05 -0.60

Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm) +1.80 +2.00 131.90 132.10 -0.60

HSFO 180cst ($/t) - - 702.50 703.50 -1.25

Mideast Gulf $/blDifferential to

Mopag Low High +/-low high

95R gasoline +1.70 +1.90 123.60 123.80 +2.30

92R gasoline +1.50 +1.70 119.90 120.10 +2.30

Naphtha LR1 ($/t) +35.00 +37.00 948.00 956.50 +1.25

Naphtha LR2 ($/t) - - 954.40 962.90 +1.65

Jet-kerosine +2.70 +2.90 130.95 131.15 -0.45

Gasoil 0.5% +3.50 +3.70 128.00 128.20 -0.80

Gasoil 0.2% +3.70 +3.90 128.20 128.40 -0.80

Gasoil 0.05% (500ppm) +5.00 +5.20 129.50 129.70 -0.65

Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm) +5.30 +5.50 129.80 130.00 -0.60

HSFO 180cst ($/t) - - 672.40 673.40 -1.25

HSFO 380cst ($/t) +6.25 +8.25 656.40 657.40 -1.75

Japan $/blDiff. to Mopj


Naphtha ($/t) +19.00 +21.00 984.00 992.50 +1.25

Jet-kerosine - - 135.80 136.00 -0.45

Gasoil 0.005% - - 134.75 134.95 -0.80

HSFO 180cst ($/t) - - 704.60 705.60 -0.95

Indonesia $/blDiff. to Pertamina


LSWR V-500 +6.00 +6.20 117.90 118.10 -0.10

South China yuan/tLow High +/-

HSFO 180cst barge STS 5,050.00 5,070.00 +0.00

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Argus Asia-Pacific Products Issue 12A - 173 Friday 07 September 2012

Gasoline

Singapore gasoline prices rose despite losses in crude values amid strong demand from Vietnam.

Three 92R gasoline cargoes loading over 22-26 September were transacted during afternoon window trading. PetroChina bought two such cargoes from Total and Chevron at $121.90/bl and $122.30/bl respectively, while a third cargo was traded at $122.45/bl between buyer Unipec and seller Gunvor.

The crack spread, or 92R grade’s premium over Brent crude, extended on the previous session’s gains and closed $2.65/bl higher at $8.20/bl on Friday. The 92R gasoline’s value over naphtha similarly strengthened, rising from $11.40/bl to its high-est level this month at $13.55/bl.

Vietnamese buyers helped to soak up regional supply with fresh tenders to import gasoline. Saigon Petro sought to buy 10,000t (84,500 bl) of 95R gasoline delivering during 16-20 October to Cat Lai via a tender closing on 11 September with an award due on the same day itself. The firm last paid at a premium around $3.30/bl to Mops on a cfr Cat Lai basis for an identical cargo arrival over 21-25 September, but only at its second attempt. It had initially sought supplies delivering during 24-28 August, but cancelled the tender after receiving offers steeper than its expectations following an unexpected shutdown at the country’s 145,000 b/d Dung Quat refinery in early-August.

Fellow Vietnamese importer Petrolimex is due to award Friday a tender to import three gasoline cargoes totalling 70,000t of 92R gasoline for both second-half September loading and delivery basis. The firm will likely issue its oil product tender for fourth-quarter delivery sometime later this month. Petrolimex

had previously skipped third-quarter term purchases on the back of ample inventories.

Sentiment had over the past month has been persistently weighed down by a slowdown in regional demand, in particu-lar from key gasoline buyer Indonesia after seasonal demand peaked. State-controlled oil firm Pertamina is still negotiating with term suppliers for 88R gasoline delivering during October-December.

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Gasoline 91R NWE fob vs 92R Singapore $/t

Singapore reforming spreadToday Previous +/-

97R gasoline 21.80 19.55 +2.25

95R gasoline 18.90 16.65 +2.25

92R gasoline 15.20 12.95 +2.25

Singapore $/blDifferential to Mops


97R gasoline - - 128.55 128.75 +2.30

95R gasoline +0.90 +1.10 125.65 125.85 +2.30

92R gasoline +0.70 +0.90 121.95 122.15 +2.30

Mideast Gulf $/blDiff. to Mopag


95R gasoline 1.70 1.90 123.60 123.80 +2.30

92R gasoline 1.50 1.70 119.90 120.10 +2.30

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Naphtha

Asian naphtha prices rose on the back of firm buying sup-port from South Korean importers.

There was a deal in the afternoon online trading platform, with Glencore selling to BP a first-half November/second-half Novem-ber timespread at $7.50/t.

The crack spread, or naphtha’s refining margin relative to Brent crude for first-half November, rebounded by $3.70/t to $141.20/t on Friday. The value of cfr Japan second-half October over second-half November narrowed for the first time in four successive sessions and softened by $0.50/t and to a $15.50/t premium.

South Korean importer Honam Petrochemical bought spot supplies for the second time this week, snapping up three 25,000t (223,000 bl) naphtha cargoes delivering during second-half October. It was thought to have paid at premiums of $17.50/t and $18/t to Japan spot quotes for cargoes delivered to Yeosu and Daesan respectively, market participants said. It paid at the start of the week premiums only about $11.50/t to Mopj for 50,000t of naphtha delivering over the same period, as persistent buying support from South Korea petrochemical producers amid limited arbitrage inflows and Indian exports tightened availability.

Spot differentials for Indian naphtha cargoes climbed amid the stronger fundamentals, with state-controlled refiner MRPL

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Naphtha: Japan vs NWE $/t

settling its latest spot tender at the highest premium it achieved this year. The firm was thought to have sold 35,000t of full-range naphtha for 11-13 October to Unipec at a premium around $46/t to Mopag on a fob New Mangalore basis, according to market participants. It had previously awarded an identical cargo to Totsa, for 3-5 October loading from New Mangalore at about $42/t above Mopag.

Fellow refiner BPCL similarly exported spot supplies at a higher level than an earlier deal. It sold to Japanese trader Marubeni a 35,000t low-aromatic naphtha cargo loading during 2-4 October from Mumbai at a premium around $40/t to Mopag, higher than $24-25/t premium to Mopag it last received for a similar cargo loading 28-30 August loading from Mumbai.

Private-sector refiner Reliance Industries similarly emerged and was thought to have awarded it first spot cargo for load-ing next this month, for 75,000t of naphtha lifting over 25-30 September from Sikka at a premium around $40-41/t to Mopag. Despite the sale, Indian exports for lifting during September were seen at just around 500,000t, dipping sharply from about 800,000t sold for loading last month.

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Japan naphtha vs Ice Brent $/t



Naphtha +2.20 +2.40 109.20 109.35 +0.13

Japan $/tDifferential to Mopj


Naphtha +19.00 +21.00 984.00 992.50 +1.25

Mideast Gulf $/tDifferential to Mopag


Naphtha LR1 +35.00 +37.00 948.00 956.50 +1.25

Naphtha LR2 - - 954.40 962.90 +1.65

Japan open-specification naphtha forward prices $/tLow High +/-

16 October - 31 October 999.50 1000.50 +1.00

01 November - 15 November 991.50 992.50 +1.00

16 November - 30 November 984.00 985.00 +1.50

Singapore naphtha swaps $/blLow High +/-

September 108.40 108.60 +0.15

October 106.75 106.95 +0.05

November 105.50 105.70 +0.10



Jet-kerosine

Asia-Pacific jet-kerosine prices fell on crude losses. But spot differentials in Asia-Pacific and the Mideast Gulf re-main firm on improving arbitrage economics.

There was a physical deal done during afternoon trading in Singapore. China Aviation Oil bought from Shell 245,000 bl for 22-26 September loading at a $1.90/bl premium to 21-27 September quotes and withdrew its bid after the deal. Shell continued to offer at Mops +$2/bl for 100,000 bl loading 26-30 September.

Premiums for spot cargoes loading from Asia continue to rise on supply tightness. Spot cargoes for first half-October loading from South Korean refiners have already been completely sold out at $1/bl or a higher premium to spot quotes. Second-half October loading cargoes from South Korea were also likely of-fered at a $1/bl premium, despite the steep backwardation in the paper market suggesting a lower premium.

Several cargoes, of both long-range and medium-range sizes, were scheduled to head to the US west coast to meet increased import demand following refinery disruptions. The Torm Platte, carrying 276,000 bl of jet fuel, and the Pacific Polaris, carrying 315,000 bl, could load from South Korea at the end of Septem-ber to the US west coast.

With the increasing number of cargoes already scheduled to head to the US west coast, arbitrage economics for jet fuel load-ing from South Korea and heading for the US west coast were weaker in October than for September. But majors and traders were possibly eyeing the opening arbitrage between Asia and Europe. Unlike the US, which typically imports medium-range size cargoes, jet fuel shipments travelling to Europe are typically of long-range size.

The strong jet fuel market in Europe also supported spot pre-miums in the Mideast Gulf. Kuwait’s KPC possibly sold through a tender 473,000 bl of jet fuel for 7-8 October loading at around a $3.25/bl premium to Mideast Gulf spot quotes. The refiner earlier

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Singapore jet-kerosine crack spread $/bl

sold through a tender 315,000 bl for 15-30 September loading at a more than a $2.50/bl premium to Mideast Gulf quotes. Bah-rain’s Bapco last week possibly sold 473,000 bl for second-half November loading from Sitra at around a $2.80-2.90/bl premium to spot Mideast Gulf quotes.

Arbitrage economics to ship long-range 2 jet fuel cargoes from the Mideast Gulf to northwest Europe were just about viable at a $3/bl premium, market participants said. A $3.25/bl premium for the KPC cargo could suggest the buyer has access to competitive freight or a bullish view of arbitrage economics.

Singapore September jet-kerosine paper swaps were valued at $132.70/bl at the close of trade, falling by $0.45/bl from the previous session. The September regrade, or jet-kerosine’s premium to gasoil, rose to $2.20/bl, partly because of rising sea-sonal demand for jet-kerosine. The prompt September-October time spread was stable at a $1.30/bl backwardation amid limited spot availability. But jet-kerosine’s crack spread for September, or the product’s premium to Dubai crude, fell by around $0.20/bl to $20.55/bl.

Singapore jet-kerosine swaps $/blLow High +/-

September 132.60 132.80 -0.45

October 131.30 131.50 -0.45

November 130.45 130.65 -0.50

Q4 2012 130.60 130.80 -0.40

Q1 2013 129.05 129.25 -0.35

Q2 2013 127.65 127.85 -0.35



Jet-kerosine +1.65 +1.85 133.70 133.90 -0.45

South Korea $/blDifferential to Mops


Jet-kerosine +0.90 +1.10 132.95 133.15 -0.40

Mideast Gulf $/blDifferential to Mopag


Jet-kerosine +2.70 +2.90 130.95 131.15 -0.45

Japan $/blLow High +/-

Jet-kerosine 135.80 136.00 -0.45



Gasoil

Asia-Pacific gasoil prices fell on weaker crude futures and the intermonth time spread narrowed in backwardation despite regional demand.

Afternoon Singapore window trade generated one deal. A 26-30 September cargo of high-sulphur grade gasoil was booked at Mops +$0.90/bl. A sole bid for 0.05pc sulphur gasoil was at Mops +$2.30/bl for 3-7 October, with an offer at Mops +$2.80/bl for 26-30 September. An offer for the 0.25pc sulphur grade at Mops +$2.30/bl for 3-7 October was left untested.

Arbitrage economics to send ultra-low sulphur gasoil from northeast Asia to Europe are unattractive, partly undermined by higher stocks in Europe. The weak east-west paper spread capped spot premiums of 0.001pc sulphur gasoil that are as-sessed at around $1.80/bl to spot Singapore quotes on a fob northeast Asia basis amid a dearth of trades done. Inventories of gasoil in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp stood at a 19-week high at 2.47mn t as of 6 September.

Steady demand from Vietnam and Sri Lanka is helping to absorb supply. Vietnamese firm Saigon Petro sought to buy through a tender 10,000t of 0.25pc sulphur gasoil on a cfr Ho Chi Minh basis for 12-16 October delivery. The tender closes 11 September with same day validity. Saigon Petro previously bought an identical cargo at a premium of around $1.55-1.65/bl to spot quotes fob Singapore basis for 17-21 August loading.

The country’s state-owned importer Petrolimex remains locked in negotiations to buy 88,000t of 0.25pc and 0.05pc

sulphur gasoil in four cargoes for loading in September, fob Sin-gapore/Taiwan/Thailand basis. Its import demand comes amid a pick-up in domestic demand after an absence of two months.

Healthy imports from Australia helped to whittle down diesel stocks in Singapore. Around 622,813 bl (83,487t) of diesel was moved to Australia from the southeast Asian trading hub in the week ended 5 September, higher than the 610,000 bl exported a week earlier. Onshore stocks in Singpore are at a five-week low at 8.97mn bl and already some 25pc lower than the same period last year.

Sri Lankan refiner Ceylon Petroleum (Ceypetco) secured through a tender 300,000 bl of 0.25pc sulphur gasoil at a premium of around $3.38/bl to spot Singapore quotes on a cfr Colombo basis. The cargo bought from Gunvor is due for 19 September delivery. The firm has another tender combined with gasoline requirements that asked for up to 150,000 bl of the same medium-sulphur grade of gasoil for 28 September delivery. Ceypetco is stepping up its spot requirements amid disruptions at its 50,000 b/d Kelaniya refinery affecting its crude pipeline supply infrastructure.

Bahraini refiner Bapco sold through a tender 40,000t of 0.05pc sulphur gasoil at a premium slightly above $5/bl to spot Mideast Gulf quotes on a fob Sitra basis for loading on 28-31 October. The premium is stronger than its last sale of the same amount of 0.05pc sulphur gasoil that fetched around $4.90-5/bl premiums for loading in the second half of November. The strength of the current market has likely prompted the refiner to sell more forward than usual loading cargoes, just as it did around the same time last year to capitalise on better econom-ics.

Singapore balance-month September gasoil paper swaps were valued at $130.50/bl at the close of trade, falling by $0.65/bl from Thursday. The prompt September-October intermonth spread narrowed by $0.15/bl to a $0.85/bl backwardation. Gas-oil’s October crack spread, or its premium to Dubai crude edged down to $18.80/bl from the previous session’s $19.02/bl.



Gasoil 0.5% +0.80 +1.00 130.90 131.10 -0.80

Gasoil 0.25% +2.10 +2.30 132.20 132.40 -0.60

Gasoil 0.05% (500ppm) +2.60 +2.80 132.70 132.90 -0.75

Gasoil 0.005% (50ppm) +3.25 +3.45 133.35 133.55 -0.45

Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm) +3.80 +4.00 133.90 134.10 -0.45

South Korea $/blDifferential to Mops


Gasoil 0.5% +0.75 +0.95 130.85 131.05 -0.60

Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm) +1.80 +2.00 131.90 132.10 -0.60

Mideast Gulf $/blDifferential to

Mopag Low High +/-

low high

Gasoil 0.5% +3.50 +3.70 128.00 128.20 -0.80

Gasoil 0.2% +3.70 +3.90 128.20 128.40 -0.80

Gasoil 0.05% (500ppm) +5.00 +5.20 129.50 129.70 -0.65

Gasoil 0.001% (10ppm) +5.30 +5.50 129.80 130.00 -0.60

Japan $/blLow High +/-

Gasoil 0.005% (50ppm) 134.75 134.95 -0.80

Singapore gasoil swaps $/blLow High +/-

September 130.40 130.60 -0.65

October 129.55 129.75 -0.50

November 129.00 129.20 -0.45

Q4 2012 129.05 129.25 -0.45

Q1 2013 129.25 129.45 -0.35

Q2 2013 127.85 128.05 -0.35

Gasoil arbitrage $/tEast-west September spread -11.22

East-west October spread -18.06

Singapore September vs Ice October gasoil -11.72

Singapore September vs Ice November gasoil -8.97



Fuel oil, bunkers and LSWR

Singapore HSFO prices fell on crude and paper losses. The October fuel oil margin against Dubai crude narrowed by $0.12/t to a discount of $4.73/bl.

Afternoon window trading yielded a single deal. Gunvor sold to Unipec one cargo of 40,000t 380cst HSFO for loading during 3-7 October at Balance H1 September - $0.25/t. Eleven bids were posted against three offers. Vitol made the lone offer for 380cst for loading during 1-5 October at Mops + $5.50/t against bids pegged at Mops + $2/t. PetroChina offered 180cst for load-ing during 25-29 September at Mops + $5.75/t and Vitol offered 180cst for loading during 1-5 October at Mops + $6/t. Kuo Oil and Vitol posted three bids at Mops +$3/t for loading during 22-26 September and 26-30 September. In the paper market, September swaps traded $1.25/t lower at $689.75/t. The prompt 180/380cst viscosity spread held steady at $15.25/t. The prompt month time spread narrowed by $0.25/t to $5.25/t in backwarda-tion.

Taiwanese refiner CPC issued a tender to sell 35,000t max 0.38pc sulphur straight-run LSFO for loading during 1-31 Octo-ber on a fob Kaohsiung basis. This tender closes on 10 Sep-tember and remains valid till 12 September. This is CPC’s third tender to sell straight-run LSFO in 2012 amid repeated delays to the start-up of a 80,000b/d RFCC at its 300,000b/d Talin refinery. CPC last sold a 38,000t September-loading parcel to Mercuria at premium of $80-90/t to Mops 180cst.

Indian refiner HPCL is due to close on Friday a tender to sell 30,000t HSFO for loading during 22-24 September on a fob

Singapore $/tDifferential to Mops


HSFO 180cst +4.25 +5.25 691.50 692.50 -1.25

HSFO 380cst +2.75 +3.75 675.50 676.50 -1.75

Mideast Gulf $/tDifferential to Mopag


HSFO 180cst - - 672.40 673.40 -1.25

HSFO 380cst +6.25 +8.25 656.40 657.40 -1.75

South Korea $/tLow High +/-

HSFO 180cst 702.50 703.50 -1.25

Japan $/tLow High +/-

HSFO 180cst 704.60 705.60 -0.95

Singapore fuel oil swaps $/tLow High +/-

September 689.25 690.25 -1.25

October 684.00 685.00 -1.00

November 680.25 681.25 -1.00

Q4 2012 680.25 681.25 -1.25

Q1 2013 670.75 671.75 -1.25

Q2 2013 662.25 663.25 -1.25

Vizag basis. HPCL last sold a similar cargo for loading during 28 August -3 September on fob Mumbai basis to Marubeni to discount of around $10/t to Mops 380cst.

The impact of the Amuay refinery fire in Venezuela has yet to be felt. Chinese trader PetroChina typically exports up to five VLCCs of fuel oil from the Caribbean with 2-3 VLCCs headed to China and the remaining bound for Singapore. Shipping fixtures showed that PetroChina had provisionally chartered the VLCCs Yuan Shan Hu and Lu Shan to load during 22-24 September to head to Singapore. Tighter supplies might be expected if car-goes from the Caribbean are delayed and the Chinese looked to the Singapore market instead.

Marubeni placed Desh Gaurav on subject for loading for loading 80,000t HSFO from Mangalore during 21-23 Septem-ber to head to the East. Gunvor placed a vessel on subject for loading 65,000t HSFO on 10 September to head to Karachi for $500,000. Socar provisionally booked CE-Shilla for loading 80,000T HSFO from Singapore on 14 September to head to China.

Indonesia $/blDifferential to Pertamina


LSWR V-500 +6.00 +6.20 117.90 118.10 -0.10



China fuel oil

Bunkers and marine fuels

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Singapore vs NWE fuel oil swaps $/t

Spot prices of 180cst HSFO rose by 20-30 yuan/t to Yn5,080-5,120/t in east China on Thursday, supported by tight prompt supply and higher costs for future-delivery cargoes.

Local suppliers raised offers by Yn30-50/t to Yn5,150-5,200/t, with some reluctant to release limited stocks to wholesalers, traders said. Demand for other grades of fuel oil and off-specifi-cation diesel is expected to pick up in east China as the fishing ban in the East China Sea ends on 16 September, tightening supply of blending feedstocks for 180cst HSFO, traders said. Prices in south China were unchanged at Yn5,050-5,070/t on Thursday after rising by Yn50/t in the previous session.

Trading was active for prompt cargoes in the straight-run fuel oil market. Recent ample fresh arrivals and stockpiles at ports in Shandong province have mostly been sold out, traders said. Domestic independent refineries, the main users of straight-run cargoes, were expected to receive nearly 1mn t of fuel oil im-ports in September, including some cargoes that were sched-uled for August delivery but have been delayed. This is up from arrivals of about 900,000t in August and about double imports a year earlier, according to shipping fixtures. Run rates at local refineries are expected to rise further in the days ahead, boosted by good sales of gasoline and diesel from local refineries. The

Kenli refinery plans to restart its new 3mn t/yr crude distillation unit (CDU) next week, while ChemChina also will resume trials at its newly-built 3.5mn t/yr CDU in the near future, refinery of-ficials said.

The benchmark January 2013 fuel oil contract on the Shang-hai Futures Exchange extended losses in thin trade on Thursday in line with losses in Brent crude futures a day earlier, settling down by Yn18/t at Yn4,891/t. Trading volumes for the contract shrank by two lots to only 10 lots, with no other contracts traded for a second consecutive day. Open interest declined by two lots to 96 lots. Fuel oil stocks at nominated storage terminals to meet physical delivery remained unchanged at 20,400t.

Prices in the bonded bunker market rebounded tracking higher Singapore cargo values, rising by $2-5/t on Thursday.

South China fuel oil fob yuan/tLow High +/-

HSFO 180cst barge STS 5,050.00 5,070.00 +0.00

Differential to Mops+/-

low high

M100 C+F east China ($/t) +79.00 +81.00 +0.00

M100 C+F south China ($/t) +80.00 +81.00 +0.00

East China fuel oil fob $/tLow High +/-

HSFO east China 771.50 772.50 -1.25

South China fuel oil c+f $/tLow High +/-

September 704.00 706.00 -1.25

October 698.75 700.75 -1.00

November 695.00 697.00 -1.00

Bunkers 380cst $/tLow High +/-

Singapore 680.00 682.00 +0.00

South Korea 703.00 705.00 +6.00

Fujairah 682.00 684.00 +0.00

Hong Kong 683.00 685.00 +0.00

Shanghai 690.00 695.00 +0.00

Qingdao 703.00 705.00 +0.00

Marine diesel $/tLow High +/-

Singapore 980.00 990.00 +0.00

South Korea 1,005.00 1,015.00 +0.00

Fujairah 1,015.00 1,025.00 +0.00

Bunkers 180cst $/tLow High +/-

Singapore 694.00 696.00 +0.00

South Korea 719.00 721.00 +7.00

Fujairah 704.00 706.00 -4.00

Russian Far East 565.00 570.00 +5.00

Marine gasoil $/tLow High +/-

Singapore 990.00 1,000.00 +0.00

South Korea 1,015.00 1,025.00 +0.00

Fujairah 1,025.00 1,035.00 +0.00

Russian Far East 885.00 895.00 +2.50



LSWR

Freight routesSpot freight rates

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LSWR vs Duri crude $/bl

Mideast Gulf-Singapore Size (t) $/blGasoil 55,000 2.90Jet 55,000 2.74

Mideast Gulf-Singapore Size (t) $/tFuel oil 80,000 19.08

Mideast Gulf-Singapore Size (t) $/blGasoline 35,000 2.03

Mideast Gulf-Japan Size (t) $/tNaphtha 55,000 36.00Naphtha 75,000 29.58

Singapore-Japan Size (t) $/tClean products 30,000 16.52

Singapore-Japan Size (t) $/blGasoil 30,000 2.22Jet 30,000 2.10

Indonesia-Japan Size (t) $/tFuel oil 80,000 13.11LSWR 30,000 28.00

hhh

120

130

140

150


HSFO 180cst cargo Singapore = 0

Singapore HSFO vs Indonesia LSWR $/t

hhh

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8


Singapore HSFO 380cst vs 180cst $/t

hhh

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2


Dubai crude = 0

Fuel oil crack spreads $/bl



hhh

17

18

19

20

21

22


Dubai crude = 0

Gasoil Jet-kerosine

Gasoil and jet-kero crack spreads $/bl

Crack spreads

Deals done

hhh

-20

-10

0

10

20

30


Ice Brent month 1 = 0

Naphtha 97R 95R 92R

Singapore naphtha and gasoline crack spreads $/bl

Crack spreads Dubai swaps $/bl

Singapore fuel oil 180cst Oct -4.73

Singapore gasoil Oct +18.80

Singapore jet Oct +20.55

Ice Brent crude $/t

Japan naphtha c+f half month 1 16 Oct - 31 Oct +146.13

Japan naphtha c+f half month 2 01 Nov - 15 Nov +141.20

Japan naphtha c+f half month 3 16 Nov - 30 Nov +133.70

Ice Brent crude $/bl

Singapore naphtha fob spot - -4.58

Singapore 97R gasoline - +14.80



Seller Buyer Product Volume Unit Diff Basis Price ($) Timing

Gunvor Unipec Fuel oil HS 380 cst cargo Singapore 40,000 t Bal H1 Sep - $0.25/t 03 Oct-07 Oct

Gunvor Ceylon Petroleum Gasoil 0.25% Singapore 300,000 bl Mops +3.38 19 Sep-19 Sep

SK Energy Trafigura Gasoil 0.5% Singapore 150,000 bl Mops +0.90 26 Sep-30 Sep

Chevron Petrochina Gasoline 92R Singapore 50,000 bl 122.30 22 Sep-26 Sep

Total Petrochina Gasoline 92R Singapore 50,000 bl 121.90 22 Sep-26 Sep

Gunvor Unipec Gasoline 92R Singapore 50,000 bl 122.45 22 Sep-26 Sep

Mangalore Refinery Unipec Naphtha LR1 Mideast Gulf fob 35,000 t Mopag +46.00 11 Oct-13 Oct

Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) Marubeni Corporation Naphtha LR1 Mideast Gulf fob 35,000 t Mopag +40.00 02 Oct-04 Oct

Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) Unknown Naphtha LR1 Mideast Gulf fob 75,000 t Mopag +40.50 25 Sep-30 Sep

Glencore BP Naphtha forward Japan c+f 25,000 t 7.50 01 Nov-30 Nov

Unknown Honam Naphtha open spec Japan c+f 75,000 t Mopj +18.00 16 Oct-31 Oct

Argus ESPO Conference 2012Russia exports to the east:A watershed for Asian crude markets

10-11 December 2012, Marina Mandarin Singapore



Issued tenders

MethodologyArgus Asia-Pacific products price assessments represent the market over the course of the entire trading day. Argus believes that a fair and representative price will include trade throughout the day. If the market shows high intra-day volatil-ity, Argus will weight the assessments towards trading activity at the end of the working day.

Price assessments rely on a wide variety of sources and platforms for information, including discussion with refiners, marketers, importers, traders and brokers, to reflect a daily consensus on the price of the day.

Argus works to verify all deal prices, counterparties, and volumes. Argus values transparency, so we publish as much price, volume, and specification information as we discover. This allows you to cross-check and verify the deals against the published prices.

The detai ls of our methodology are avai lable at www.argusmedia.com or by cal l ing any Argus off ice.

Issuer Trade Timing fob/cfr location Close ValidPSO Buy 315,000t of gasoline Oct-Dec cfr Karachi 29 Aug 07 Sep

PSO Buy 5 x 50,000t cargoes of 0.5pc sulphur gasoil 24-26 Sep, Oct-Dec cfr Karachi 29 Aug 07 Sep

Petron Buy 250,000 bl of 0.05pc sulphur gasoil 1-3 Oct cfr Limay, Bataan 04 Sep 04 Sep

ARC Sell 30,000t of jet fuel 23-25 Sep fob Aden 04 Sep 05 Sep

Ceypetco Buy 280,000 bl of gasoline 22-23 Sep cfr Colombo 04 Sep 07 Sep

Petron Buy 80,000 bl of jet fuel 29 Sep-3 Oct cfr Limay, Bataan 05 Sep 05 Sep

Adnoc Sell 2 x 40,000t of 0.001pc sulphur gasoil 3-5 Oct, 15-17 Oct fob Ruwais 05 Sep 07 Sep

Pertamina Buy 100,000 bl of 92R gasoline 28-30 Sep cfr Jakarta 06 Sep 07 Sep

IOC Sell 35,000-40,000t of heavy full-range naphtha 18-20 Sep fob Dahej 06 Sep 07 Sep

Petrolimex Buy up to 88,000t of 0.05pc and 0.25pc s gasoil 21-27 Sep, 13-19 Sep, 26-30 Sep

fob Singapore/Taiwan/Thailand 06 Sep 07 Sep

BPC Sell 170,000 bl of naphtha 24-26 Sep fob Chittagong 06 Sep 13 Sep

Ceypetco Buy 70,000 bl or 150,000 bl of 0.25pc s gasoil 28 Sep des Colombo 11 Sep 14 Sep

Ceypetco Buy 160,000 bl or 240,000 bl of gasoline 28 Sep cfr Colombo 11 Sep 14 Sep

Tasweeq Sell 304,000 bl of 0.2pc sulphur gasoil 19-20 Sep fob Ras Laffan 17 Sep 19 Sep

Saigon Petro Buy 10,000t of 0.25pc sulphur gasoil 12-16 Oct cfr Ho Chi Minh City 11 Sep 11 Sep

Announcements



Market news

Caltex Australia to boost product importsCaltex Australia aims to increase its oil product imports as its refinery output falls to around 20-25pc of its sales vol-umes as it closes down refinery capacity.

The closure of Caltex’s 135,000 b/d Kurnell refinery in Sydney will leave Australia’s largest city with no refinery by mid-2014 with Shell closing its Clyde refinery later this month.

Caltex is converting Kurnell to an oil product import terminal and expanding its Adelaide import terminal in South Australia to add 535,000 bl of gasoline, diesel and biodiesel storage, which should be completed next year. Caltex, which is 50pc owned by Chevron, is keeping its 109,000 b/d Lytton refinery in Brisbane.

Refinery closures in Australia in the face of rising competition from large-scale Asian plants will see the country’s transport fuel imports, as a proportion of total consumption, rise from just 5pc in 2000 to 60pc in 2020, according to Caltex’s forecasts.

Caltex has a 36pc market share for gasoline and 32pc for each of diesel and jet fuel, making it Australia’s main supplier for diesel and gasoline and the second largest for jet fuel.

Australia’s transport fuels consumption, comprising gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, has grown from 250mn bl in 2006 to 296mn bl last year, with jet fuel growing from 34.6mn bl to 45.9mn bl.

Engineers warn of post-Amuay refinery risksVenezuela’s state-owned oil firm PdV is restarting the 640,000 b/d Amuay refinery without first completing “a thor-ough inspection” of its crude processing units, the direc-tors of the well-regarded Venezuelan society of petroleum engineers (AVIP) and the Venezuelan College of Engineers (CIV) warned today.

The Amuay refinery needs to be shut down completely and inspected by “a team of professionals including PdV and inde-pendent refinery experts” before its processing plants are brought back to full capacity, according to CIV president Enzo Betancourt, who chaired a joint AVIP-CIV press conference that included retired PdV director Arevalo Reyes, and two retired former general managers of the Amuay refinery and the nearby 300,000 b/d Cardon refinery.

All of PdV’s refineries “are at critical risk of suffering cata-strophic accidents at any time,” Betancourt said, reading from a joint AVIP-CIV press statement.

AVIP and CIV have warned officially on at least 14 separate occasions since 2007 that PdV’s refineries “were in need of urgent measures to protect PdV workers against loss of life and injuries caused by preventable accidents,” Betancourt said.

“Our most recent public alert was last March, but [energy min-ister] Rafael Ramirez has ignored these warnings, and the result was the catastrophic explosion on 25 August at Amuay that killed 42 people,” he said.

The oil workers union Futpv claims the damage was more ex-tensive than officially reported. A total of 18 fuel and gas storage tanks were affected by the gas explosion and resulting fire that raged for over 83 hours following the initial explosion at 1:11am local time on 25 August.

All of the fuel and gas storage tanks must be replaced, includ-ing all associated pipelines and other infrastructure and systems,

before that area of refinery’s tank farm can be used safely again, former PdV upstream manager Diego Gonzalez said today.

Ramirez denied again Wednesday the refinery’s processing plants suffered any blast damage.

ARA product stocks bounce backTotal oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Ant-werp (ARA) refining and storage hub in northwest Europe bounced back after two weeks of decline, rising by 91,000t to 4.34mn t.

Traders sold off their summer specification material and stocked up on intermediate or winter grade product.

Gasoline stocks rose by 19pc from 618,000t to 737,000t, with material coming in from France, the UK and Qatar, according to data from Dutch consultancy PJK International.

Stocks of gasoil — comprising heating oil and diesel — con-tinued to build as product was imported from the US, Canada, Norway and Russia, reaching a 19-week high of 2.47mn t from 2.41mn t last week.

Meanwhile, an exodus of tonnes saw a reduction in fuel oil and jet fuel stocks. Fuel oil inventories went down by 63,000t to 633,000t, the lowest level since 21 June, after a very large crude carrier (VLCC) left for Singapore on 1 September.

Inventories of jet fuel fell by 29,000t to 366,000t while naphtha stocks marginally rose by 5,000t to 131,000t.

Obama pledges to slash oil imports in re-election bidUS president Barack Obama promised last night to cut US oil imports in half by 2020 as part of a broader strategy to revive the still-weak US economy.

Accepting his party’s nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama told US vot-ers “you can choose the path where we control more of our own energy”.

Trying to counter Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s pro-posal to create an “energy superpower”, Obama laid out a plan in which higher greater domestic production, higher fuel mileage standards and greater reliance on renewables could enable the US to dramatically reduce its dependence on foreign oil.

The US oil cut imports last year by more than 1mn b/d “more than any administration in recent history”, Obama said. The US imported more than 8.9mn b/d of crude in 2011 and 9.1mn b/d in June 2012, the US EIA reported. Slashing imports in half will be comparable to eliminating the need for all of the oil Opec supplies to the US.

With the shale revolution reinvigorating its oil and gas sector, the US is producing more than 6mn b/d for the first time since 1998. Its abundant shale resources are promising to help reverse the decades-long loss of manufacturing jobs to low-wage com-petitors overseas. Obama pointed to new acreage offshore his ad-ministration is opening for potential oil and gas exploration, saying “we will open more”. He predicted development of the US’ gas resources will create 600,000 new jobs by the end of the decade.

Romney has described energy as one of the five pillars for revitalising the US economy, promising if elected North America will become energy independent by 2020.

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