Are We Moving Forward to 21st Century or Moving Backward to 20th Century in Our Transportation Policies

Mah-Hui LIM

Public Dialogue with theChief Minister of Penang

March 10, 2013

1

OBJECTIVES –Address 5 Basic Questions

1. Should Important Public Policies be based on Evidence & Analysis?

2. Will Simply Building More Roads Solve Traffic Problems?

3. Are We Given an Alternative?4. Are We Moving to 21st Century or

Moving Back to 20th Century?5. Does Creating Dependency on Private

Transport Help the Poor?2

I - Master Transport Plan (MTP)

MTP was proposed by the Penang Transport Council in 2009 & in 2011 the Pg state govt agreed to fund it (with Rgt1.2m contribution from Northern Corridor)Total cost Rm3.2m.

We applaud the state for this because it means state policies sh be based on evidence & scientific analysis, not personal preference

3

Questions On the Process of Making Public Policy

The formal agreement for the MTP was signed in mid 2011. In the same week, the CM announced the signing of MOU for 4 major road projects with Chinese companies

Does it make sense to have the solution before the study has started?

Does this not ignore evidenced based analysis and policies?

4

Questions?

Concurrent negotiations for projects started in 2011 held while the MTP study was underway

Why were awards for the projects given out even before the MTP is finalized and made public?

Doesn’t this pre-empt the significance of the report’s recommendations?

5

Questions

MTP calls for a balanced approach to solving transport problems

It suggested short & medium term measures & recommended major road construction as longer term solutions commencing after

Are we putting the cart before the horse by reversing the priorities suggested in the MTP?

6

Slides on ST & MT

Institutional capacity building – more engineers, better traffic modeling capability, TIA team etc

Result of public response – 80% in favor of balanced approach rather than car dominated approach

Only 7% of cross-channel traffic during peak hours

7

Other Questions

Have there been independent feasibility studies, cost benefit analysis, traffic demand simulation etc done for ALL the 4 projects before they were tendered?

Isn’t it standard best practice to conduct such studies BEFORE tender and award, rather than after?

8

Other Questions

If a tunnel is necessary, are there dedicated bus lanes, rail link?

A rail tunnel is more important given the completion of the fast train to Butterworth and the future high speed rail linking Singapore to KL to Penang

9

II – Will Simply Expanding Roadwork Solve Transport Problem?

First let me state categorically, I am NOT against improving road networks

Second, I am not suggesting that the Pg state govt do nothing

I recognize the need to build a road to link the northern and southern parts of Penang island without having to go through the city. This will decongest traffic in the city

10

My Point Is:

Focusing on building roads without addressing the demand for road use will NOT solve the problem

In fact, it might worsen the problem There are 2 sides to the equation of

traffic problem the Supply Side & the Demand Side

11

Demand & Supply Sides of Transport Equation

Supply Side refers to supplying more road networks

Demand Side refers to the demand for the use of these road network

It has been shown that simply building more roads (supply side) creates the demand for using them thereby bringing you back to square one

12

Demand Outstrips Supply

Vehicles are growing at 10% per year. At this rate Penang will have another 1 m cars in 10 yrs. There is simply no way to supply enough roads to cater to this increase in road usage demand

Hence we must tackle the demand side too

13

Do We Have Evidence ?

Have all the highways, tunnels & flyovers in KL and Bangkok solved traffic congestion?

If not, why are we going down that path?

Is our public policy evidenced based on preference based?

14

Hence the Need to Address the Demand Side

This means regulating the use of roads through various measures Increase parking charges Vary parking charges according to areas

and time Introducing road usage during peak

hours

But why is the state unwilling to do this?

15

Present State Policy of Free & Subsidized Bus Rides

Why has it met with limited success ? Because it doesn’t address the other

side of the equation, i.e. creating disincentives to use private vehicles

It will have more success if it is combined with the following measures

16

Things the State & Local Governments Can Do

Creating bus lanes so that it’s faster for commuters to get to work on bus than on private cars

This can be limited to PEAK HOURS For those who still want the comfort

of driving to work during peak hours, they should pay for the luxury

The proceeds sh be used to subsidize public transport

17

State Should Provide Alternative for Public to Choose

Presently there are 2 major arteries well served by Rapid with buses running every 10 minutes or less – Ayer Hitam & Tanjong Tokong roads

If we create bus lanes during peak hours; increase bus frequencies to 5 minutes; subsidize bus fares, then commuters can get to work cheaper & faster

18

Public Transport Alternative

Commuters have little basis not to use public transport & no basis to complain about paying higher charges if they continue to choose using private cars

I propose the state put more time, thinking & resources to offer this alternative to Penang citizens?

Start with trial on Burmah Road19

III - Moving Forward to 21st Century or Backward to 20th Century

Creating dependence on private cars has 2 major negative effects Increases carbon emission & impact on

global warming (This works against objective of cleaner & greener Penang)

Increases financial burden of middle and lower classes

20

Recent Studies, including NASA’s show that

Road traffic contributes the most to global warming, followed by aviation sector

21

Biggest Global Challenge in 21st Century- Climate Change

22

Global Warming > Disappearing Glaciers 1980 - 2005

23

Burden of Private Transport on Lower Middle Class & the Poor

Average household with RM3000 income per month spends at least (RM500)1/5th on maintaining car

Lowering price of cars, tolls, petrol does not solve the problem

Offering good & affordable public transport so they don’t have to buy cars is more effective

This increases his disposable income24

Cities with Forward Looking Transport Strategy

Seoul – tore down major highway & restored canal

Stuggart – Many European cities – purposely

reduce parking space in cities, make it inconvenient to use private cars

Curitiba’s mayor in 5 years transformed the transport landscape

25

Successes of Curitiba’s Transport Model

He prioritised bus lanes & bicycle lanes over road building

He said that no where does he find that provision of parking space is part of human rights

He invested in upgrading bicycle lanes so that its safe & fashionable to ride

26

Other Cities’ Forward Looking Transport Policies

Copenhagen gives priority to bicycles- 37% commuters ride to work. Target is to reach 50% by 2015; 58% use a bicycle daily; only 29% household own a car

Mayor of London rides to work Mayor of New York takes bus &

subway to work

27

Why Don’t Pakatan Leaders Lead the Way?

I suggest that our political leaders set an example by cycling or taking bus at least some of the time

This will show that its cool to bicycle not just for recreation but for work

Will have significant demonstration effect

28

Back to the Tunnel – Tunnel Fires - Has State Exco Considered the Risks of Tunnels & Publicised Them ?

1982 Caldecott Tunnel Calif -7 died 1999-Mt Blanc Tunnel – 35 died 2001-Gotthard Tunnel, Switz-20 died 2012-Japan – 9 died Malaysia - poor regulation of not road

worthy vehicles on the road Frequency of cars catching fire

29

Japan Tunnel Fire – Dec 2, 2012

30

Tunnels

Likelihood of such incidents happening is much higher than in Switzerland and Japan have strict laws & enforcement regimes, yet such terrifying accidents happen.

What about Malaysia? Bolih juga.

31

Pakatan Should Lead With New Vision & Courage

CM enjoys enormous popularity – big asset for leading real change

Majority of people still trapped old way of looking at transport as provision of more roads

Golden opportunity to use popularity to offer new vision & ideas, to educate people through major speeches & lead by example

32

THANK YOU

33