are we at the bottom of the railcar market? · 2016. 2017f. 2018f. 2019f % change. change in na...
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ARE WE AT THE BOTTOM OF THE RAILCAR MARKET?Midwest Association of Rail ShippersJuly 2017
Midwest Association of Rail Shippers | J u l y 2 0 1 7
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Forward-Looking Statements Statements in this Presentation not based on historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and, accordingly, involve known
and unknown risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict and could cause our actual results, performance, or achievements to differ materially from those discussed. These statements include
statements as to our future expectations, beliefs, plans, strategies, objectives, events, conditions, financial performance, prospects, or future events. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be
identified by the use of words such as “may,” “could,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “seek,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “continue,” “likely,” “will,” “would”, and similar words
and phrases. Forward-looking statements are necessarily based on estimates and assumptions that, while considered reasonable by us and our management, are inherently uncertain. Accordingly, you
should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made, and are not guarantees of future performance. We do not undertake any obligation to
publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. The following factors, in addition to those discussed in our other filings with the SEC, including our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,
2016 and subsequent reports on Form 10-Q, could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations expressed in forward-looking statements:
• exposure to damages, fines, criminal and civil penalties, and reputational harm arising
from a negative outcome in litigation, including claims arising from an accident
involving our railcars
• inability to maintain our assets on lease at satisfactory rates due to oversupply of
railcars in the market or other changes in supply and demand
• weak economic conditions and other factors that may decrease demand for our assets
and services
• decreased demand for portions of our railcar fleet due to adverse changes in the price
of, or demand for, commodities that are shipped in our railcars
• higher costs associated with increased railcar assignments following non-renewal of
leases, customer defaults, and compliance maintenance programs or other
maintenance initiatives
• events having an adverse impact on assets, customers, or regions where we have a
concentrated investment exposure
• financial and operational risks associated with long-term railcar purchase commitments
• reduced opportunities to generate asset remarketing income
• operational and financial risks related to our affiliate investments, including the Rolls-
Royce & Partners Finance joint ventures
• fluctuations in foreign exchange rates
• failure to successfully negotiate collective bargaining agreements with the unions representing a substantial
portion of our employees
• improvements in railroad efficiency that could decrease demand for railcars
• the impact of regulatory requirements applicable to tank cars carrying crude, ethanol, and other flammable
liquids
• asset impairment charges we may be required to recognize
• deterioration of conditions in the capital markets, reductions in our credit ratings, or increases in our
financing costs
• competitive factors in our primary markets, including competitors with a significantly lower cost of capital
than GATX
• risks related to international operations and expansion into new geographic markets
• changes in, or failure to comply with, laws, rules, and regulations
• inability to obtain cost-effective insurance
• environmental remediation costs
• inadequate allowances to cover credit losses in our portfolio
• inability to maintain and secure our information technology infrastructure from cybersecurity threats and
related disruption of our business
3
Agenda
About GATX
Industry Background
Recent Industry Performance
Current Trends
Looking Ahead
4
About GATX
$7.6 billion in assets and interest in 146,000 railcars worldwide Investment-grade ratings from S&P and Moody’s 122,000 railcars and 600 locomotives in North America 6 major railcar maintenance facilities and 5 field repair centers
in North America Industry-leading railcar management capability
As of 12/31/16
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Industry Background: North America Railcar Ownership
52%
10%
19%
20%
RAILROADS (20%) Ownership of railcars has been
declining
In 2000, 53% of railcarswere owned by railroads
Virtually no tank car ownership due to complexities and regulations
Focus of capital investmenton infrastructure
LESSORS (52%) Shift from railroad and shipper owned
railcars to lessor market share
Lessors dominate the tank car segment due to complex services and compliance requirements
UMLER as of April 2017
SHIPPERS (19%) Shipper market share has been
relatively constant since 2008 at ~19%
Alternative focus of capital on core business versus railcar investments
TTX (10%) Fleet is predominantly focused
on intermodal, flat cars, and boxcars
Overall market share has remained steady since 2008 at ~10% of the North American fleet
NORTH AMERICAN FLEETBY CAR TYPE
32% Covered Hopper22% Open Top25% Tank
9% Flat8% Boxcar4% Intermodal
32%
22%
25%
9%
8%4%
Approximately 1.6 million railcars
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Lessor Market ShareLESSOR TANK CARS Approximately 407,500
tank cars in North America– About 80% of tank cars
are owned by lessors, with the balance owned by shippers
GATX is the second largest tank car lessor
UMLER as of April 2017; SMBC counts are estimated post ARL purchase
LESSOR FREIGHT CARS Approximately 1.2
million freight cars in North America– Ownership is more
balanced acrossowner types than tank
43% lessors, 26% railroads, 18% shippers, and 13% TTX
Based on more than 841,500lessor-owned railcars
15%
16%
18%12%
13%
6%
20%
NORTH AMERICANLEASING SHARE
15% GATX16% Union Tank Car18% Wells Fargo12% Trinity
13% CIT6% SMBC
20% Other
Based on approximately 325,000lessor-owned tank cars
19%
38%16%
9%
8%
10%
NORTH AMERICAN TANK CAR LEASING SHARE
19% GATX38% Union Tank Car16% Trinity
9% CIT8% SMBC
10% Other
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Industry Performance:Carload volumes have declined as mix has changed
AAR as of 12/31/16
Based on 2008 carloads of approximately 20.3 million
39%
2%11%5%3%
11%
5%
4%
20%
39% Coal2% Petroleum Products
11% Chemical5% Forest & Paper Products3% Food / Kindred
11% Farm Products5% Auto4% Metals
20% All Other
2008
26%
5%
13%
5%3%
14%
7%
3%
23%
26% Coal5% Petroleum Products
13% Chemical5% Forest & Paper Products3% Food / Kindred
14% Farm Products7% Auto3% Metals
23% All Other
Based on 2016 carloads of approximately 16.9 million
2016
8
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1Q08 4Q08 3Q09 2Q10 1Q11 4Q11 3Q12 2Q13 1Q14 4Q14 3Q15 2Q16 1Q17
Quarterly Commodity Carload Traffic, North America
All Other Coal & CokeSand, Stone, Minerals, & Related Products GrainPetroleum Products
Coal and sand are majority of 2017 YTD improvement
Source: AAR (2Q17 Carloads; Pre-Recession Peak excludes Mexican carloads)
Down 0.7MM
All Other (2Q06 Prior Peak)
9
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
% C
hang
e
Change in NA Carloads
Coal & Coke Sand, Stone, Minerals, & Related Products
Weak comps make coal and sand look impressive
Source: AAR (2013 – 2016), IHS as of 1Q17 (2017 – 2019)
10
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F
% C
hang
e
Change in NA Carloads
All Other (excluding Coal & Sand, Stone, Minerals, & Related Products)
But overall demand fundamentals remain challenged
Source: AAR (2013 – 2016), IHS forecasts as of 1Q17 (2017 – 2019)
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Energy related fundamentals remain weak
Source: IHS as of 1Q17 (2017 onward forecasts), EIA as of January 2017 (Oil), EIA as of June 2017 (Coal)
(120)
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
-
20
2015 2016 2017F 2018F
U.S. Coal Consumption YOY Change (million short tons)
Electric Power Coke Plants Retail & General Industry
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2012 2014 2016 2018F 2020F
% C
hang
e O
il &
Gas
Ext
ract
ion
WTI
$ /
BBL
NA Oil & Gas Industry Forecast
WTI $/bbl % Change Oil & Gas Extraction
12
New car backlogs continue to declinebut are still well off historical lows
Railway Supply Institute as of April 2017
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ’16 ‘17
Tank Freight Mean Backlog Since 1994
13
Growth in railcar supply only now turning negative
Low scrap steel prices have failed to spur meaningful attrition
UMLER (comparing 2015, 2016, 2017 fleet counts)
(31)(39)
(11)
79
56
10
48
16
(1)
1/1/2016 vs. 1/1/2015 1/1/2017 vs. 1/1/2016 4/1/2017 vs. 1/1/2017
Attrition & Fleet Growth of NA Fleet (in 000s)
Gross Attrition New Builds Net Fleet Change
14
Idle cars are high, but have moderated slightly
Roughly 22% of NA fleet considered idle– Defined as having no
moves in past 60 days
91% stored empty– 35% tank cars– 27% covered hoppers– 15% gondolas
Recent velocity declines activated some cars– ~70k fewer cars
reported idle vs peak in June 2016
Source: AAR as of June 2017
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%Idle North American Fleet
% Idle Mean Since 2010
15
Velocity has moderated, but insufficiently to offset demand weakness
Source: AAR & FTR
o For every 1 MPH change in rail velocity, railcar demand changes ~50K carso Trough-peak demand variance implies idling/activation of ~1/6 of the N. A. fleet
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2010Wk1
2010Wk27
2011Wk1
2011Wk27
2012Wk1
2012Wk27
2013Wk1
2013Wk27
2014Wk1
2014Wk27
2015Wk1
2015Wk27
2016Wk1
2016Wk27
2017Wk1
MPH
Weekly Train Speeds, North America
26.8
22.5
23.1
24.0
27.2
16
Excess railcar supply impacting NA industry fleet
Source: Umler as of April 2017; AAR carloads as of June 2017; Railinc CLM analysis
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Jan-
'15
Mar
-'15
May
- '15
Jul-'
15
Sept
-'15
Nov
-'15
Jan-
'16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Sep-
16
Nov
-16
Jan-
17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Industrywide Select 3-Month Movement Pct.
Coal 30K Gallon
10
11
12
13
14
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2Q17
Industrywide Implied Carloads/Car
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Weak industry performance has stalled new railcar orders
Source: ARCI (2017A = annualized 1Q17 data)
Orders still remain low with 1Q17 net orders (~4,800) near lowest point since 2009 crisis
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Net Orders Over Time
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Rail loading growth sluggish compared to intermodal and truck
Source: FTR, IHS as of June 2017
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
% C
hang
e
% Change in Loadings
Carloads Intermodal Truck
19
Macroeconomic forecast is mixed
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Broad Based Economic Indicators
GDP Growth Manufacturing Growth Housing Starts Growth Light Vehicle Sales Growth
Source: IHS as of 1Q17 (forecast starts 2017)
20
Will new developments in 2017 affect the railcar market?
CSXT adopts “precision railroading”Proposed federal infrastructure plans in US and
Canada– What might they be, and will they get done?
New leadership at USDOTChanges in energy markets and (maybe) energy
policy– A “pro-coal” US administration– Pipeline construction– Mexican energy market liberalization
21
Has the railcar market bottomed?
Some industry observers assert that the worst of the supply and demand imbalance is over, but market signals are mixed, and backlogs remain high relative to past market bottoms
Coal and sand offer near-term hope, but broad demand picture is uncertain
Customer retention and modal share shift remain longer-term concerns in the carload market
Absent a new demand driver, return to balance in the railcar market will be slow
It is notoriously difficult to call a bottom and time a recovery
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Questions?