arctische olie en gas: nut of noodzaak? - pool tot pool geuns.pdf · arctische olie en gas: nut of...

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Arctische Olie en Gas: Nut of

Noodzaak?

Lucia van Geuns

Leiden, 16 Maart 2013

Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep

Attenborough visited both the Arctic and Antarctic in the making of the Frozen Planet. He witnessed not only the melting of Arctic sea ice, but the calving of icebergs from

glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica which contributes to sea level rise.

Frozen Planet On Thin Ice


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Deze presentatie

• Introductie

• Duurzame energie veiligheid

• Arctische olie en gas

• Afsluitende opmerkingen


The Arctic: some facts

• The Arctic ocean:

– 14 million km²

– max. depth 5160 m

• No circum-arctic treaty system other than the UN International Law of the Seas (UNCLOS)

• No country has the jurisdiction over the Arctic Ocean


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Under current international law, the countries ringing the

Arctic - Russia, Canada, the U.S., Norway, and Denmark (which owns Greenland) - are limited to a 200-mile

economic zone around their coasts.


Arctic sea ice set to hit record low within days

Aug 2012

The ice will bounce back once winter sets in, but the record lows are telling indicators that climate

change is radically transforming the Arctic…

“Arctic sea ice may have

passed crucial tipping point..”


Source: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

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July 8: ~ 40 percent of the ice

sheet had undergone thawing at

or near the surface

July 12: the melting dramatically

accelerated and ~ 97 percent of

the ice sheet surface had

thawed

Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice

Sheet Surface Melt – July 2012

“Melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average with the last one happening in 1889. If we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome."


July 8 July 12

Canada claims the route to be national waters, while the

United States and the European Union demand free

passage (Graphic: NASA)

Northwest passage


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De energie markt

• Afhankelijk van fossiele brandstoffen

• Toenemende mondiale vraag

• Reserves geconcentreerd

• Emissies broeikasgassen hoog

• Transport sector bijna volledig afhankelijk

van olie en groeiende!


0

20

40

60

80

100

Ontwikkeling van de energie vraag

Percent

Global Demand By Fuel

1800 1900 2000 1850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Bron: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil


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Twee werelden

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

OESO energie vraag

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Niet OESO energie vraag

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian


Source: Exxon, 2012

2012

2012

Toenemende vraag naar energie

World Population

Billion

1800 2040 1900 2000

Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil

0

3

6

9


Beinvloed door bevolkingsgroei en economische groei

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Energie oplossingen

Minder

CO2 uitstoot

Meer aanbod

Meer efficiency

Technologie

Bron: Exxon Mobil 2008


Wereld Energievraag 1980 – 2030

Bron: Referentie scenario IEA World Energy Outlook, 2008

De wereld energievraag groeit met meer dan 40% in de volgende 25 jaar, het absoluut verbruik van kolen en gas groeit het hardst

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Other renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Biomass

Gas

Coal

Oil


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Conventional Crude and Condensate + Oil Sands (BBO)

North America

Europe

~100

Asia Pacific

~75

Latin America

~125

Africa

~50

Russia/Caspian

~325

Middle East

~10

~150

~125

~825 ~400

OPEC Non-OPEC

~1,050 ~1,100 Oil Sands

Remaining Oil Resource – 2010

Includes Undiscovered and Future Growth Resource

Sources: USGS, Oil & Gas Journal, PIRA, IEA, Exxon Mobil, 2010


Beperkte toegang tot oliereserves voor

buitenlandse directe investeringen

Private partijen

hebben tot meer

dan de helft van

de resterende

oliereserves geen

toegang Bron: IEA, World investment outlook 2003

Access to Oil Reserves

National

companies only

(Saudi Arabia,

Kuwait, Mexico)

35%

Limited access -

National

companies

22%

Production

sharing

12%

Concession

21%

Iraq

10%

1,032 billion barrels

Access to much of the world’s remaining oil reserves is restrictedClingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep

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IOCs: Zoeken naar alternatieven

Source: IEA, Shell


Onzekerheden t.a.v. voorzieningszekerheid

• Meer import uit politiek en economisch instabiele

producerende landen

• Concurrentie met andere consumerende landen

• Knelpunten in handelsroutes

• Beperkte binnenlandse produktie van duurzame

energie bemoeilijkt diversificatie naar alternatieve

brandstoffen

• Beperkingen aan energie beleidsinstrumenten


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0

5

10

15

20

North America*

Europe

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Russia/ Caspian

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventioneel gas

Unconventioneel gas

0.8

2.6

1.4

1.3

5.6

5.8

2.3

Wereld gas voorkomens

Bronnen: EIA, USGS, NPC, Exxon Mobil, 2010; exclusief al geproduceerd gas

• Wereld: ~175 jaar reserves voor huidig gebruik

• Grote unconventionele gas voorkomens

Wereld


Arctic Oil and Gas Resources

Recent publications:

• Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP): Arctic Oil and Gas 2007

• Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA)/US Geological Survey study 2009


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• CARA/USGS 2009 appraisal: 530 Billion bbl of oil equivalent undiscovered resources (North of the Artic Circle; no hydrates, no bitumen, no oil shales)

• > 5% world oil reserves; > 20% known gas reserves in the Arctic; 25% undiscovered oil & gas

• Plans for new pipelines and development are underway:

– Russia: growing activity Timan-Pechora, W. Siberia provinces and the Kara and Barents seas

– Canada: Mackenzie Valley pipeline constructiondevelopment Mackenzie Delta and Beaufort Sea

– Alaska: gas pipeline from North Slope; expansion offshore oil activity

– Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands, Arctic Russia exploration etc

The Arctic: The last great, almost unexplored,

frontier area on the planet


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Arctic Oil and Gas production

Current Arctic production (AMAP area)

~10% world’s oil

~25% of world’s gas

Most from the Russian Arctic!


AMAP, 2007

Oil/Gas production Areas in the Arctic, AMAP 2007, Pipelines + Production areas


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Offshore

arctic

basins and

exploration

hotspots



• 95% of Arctic mineral resources are within agreed national boundaries

• biggest of territorial disputes is between US and Canada (N-W

passage)

Arctic Conflics?

“..the development of the Arctic is likely to be

uncommonly harmonious..”

1.Profit motive

2.High cost of operations

3.No excuse to intervene in the region’s affair

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Consequences of increasing temperature

• Melting of the sea-ice; unpredictable sea-ice situation

• Shifting of the seasons

• Instable, unpredictable weather

• Thawing of offshore permafrost makes ocean floor instable

• Subsidence causes risks for leaking of pipelines

• Damage to the vulnerable ecosystems


Source: L. Hacquebord, Arctic Centre, 2012

Concluding Remarks

• The Arctic will stay an extreme and harsh environment

for mineral exploitation

• Offshore oil and gas exploration and production will

have impact on the pristine Arctic ecosystems

• Arctic oil and gas ventures will have influence on

indigenous communities living along the coast

• In case of disasters there is no infrastructure and

cleaning up system; no search and rescue system


Source: L. Hacquebord, Arctic Centre, 2012

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The Arctic: robust risk management essential!

• Potential rewards comes with huge technical (climate,

remoteness) and commercial challenges (costs,

reputation)

• Operations under the highest-possible standards to

protect the vulnerable environment

• Remoteness means mobilisation of logistics and

services across long distances

• Explorers need to contract two rigs to ensure back up

for relief wells in an emergency


Investment in science and research (governments, companies)

is essential to close knowledge gaps, reduce uncertainties and

manage risks (ref. Lloyd’s, 2012)

Major geopolitical issues are unresolved

across the Arctic Basin

Access: issues of access and right of passage

Seaward Claims: claims of seaward ownership etc

Boundary Disputes: many boundary disputes still exist

Venue: is the Law of the Sea the venue to resolve

geopolitical issues; are other international frameworks

required


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www.clingendael.nl/ciep


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