arctic naval security

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Colin Manson Director Manson Oceanographic Consultancy [email protected] Arctic Naval Security Underwater Defence Technology – Spain 29 th June 2012

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Arctic Naval Security. Colin Manson Director Manson Oceanographic Consultancy [email protected]. Arctic Naval Security. Global Climate Change Arctic Ice – When will it disappear? Geo-Political Issues Access to Resources Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Arctic  Naval  Security

Colin MansonDirectorManson Oceanographic [email protected]

Arctic Naval Security

Underwater Defence Technology – Spain 29th June 2012

Page 2: Arctic  Naval  Security

• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects

Arctic Naval Security

Page 3: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

Page 4: Arctic  Naval  Security

• Global Climate Change

Arctic Naval Security

Page 5: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

Page 6: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

Page 7: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

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Arctic Naval Security

Kattesov et al: Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science, Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 56, No. 200, 2010

Page 9: Arctic  Naval  Security

• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects

Arctic Naval Security

Page 10: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

Page 11: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

Page 12: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

UnitedStates

Page 13: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

Canada

UnitedStates

Page 14: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

Greenland(Denmark)

Canada

UnitedStates

Page 15: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

Greenland(Denmark)

Canada

UnitedStates

Iceland

Page 16: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

Greenland(Denmark)

Canada

UnitedStates

Iceland Norway

Page 17: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

Greenland(Denmark)

Canada

UnitedStates

Iceland Norway

Sweden

Page 18: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

RussianFederation

Greenland(Denmark)

Canada

UnitedStates

Iceland Norway

Sweden

Finland

Page 19: Arctic  Naval  Security

• Arctic Council• Russian Federation• United States• Canada• Denmark – Representing Greenland and the Faroe Island• Norway• Sweden• Finland• 6 Organisations Representing Indigenous Peoples• Observer States

Arctic Naval Security

Page 20: Arctic  Naval  Security

• Arctic Council• Russian Federation• United States• Canada• Denmark – Representing Greenland and the Faroe Island• Norway• Sweden• Finland• 6 Organisations Representing Indigenous Peoples• Observer States

• United Nations Law Of the Sea (UNCLOS)• Articles 76-78 – Definition of Continental Shelf• Lomonosov Ridge (Ellesmere Island to New Siberian

Island via the North Pole

Arctic Naval Security

Page 21: Arctic  Naval  Security

• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects

Arctic Naval Security

Page 22: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

Via Suez Canal Via NSR Miles Days Miles Days Savings (Days)

Japan 11000 34 7400 26 (21) 8 (13)South Korea 10700 33 7500 27 (22) 6 (11)

China 10500 32 7900 28 (23) 4 (8)

Distances and Times from the Far East to Rotterdam Basedon 2011 transit times with some ice present.

Page 23: Arctic  Naval  Security

• Global Climate Change• Arctic Ice – When will it disappear?• Geo-Political Issues• Access to Resources• Northern Sea Route, North West Passage and Trade• Oceanographic and Acoustic Implications• Military Aspects

Arctic Naval Security

Page 24: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

Page 25: Arctic  Naval  Security

Vavrus et al (2012). Twenty - First - Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 2696-2710.

Arctic Naval Security

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Arctic Naval Security

• Military Aspects• Search and Rescue• Integrity of national borders• Protection of off-shore installations from terrorist

attack• Suppression of smuggling or piracy activity• Drug interdiction• Monitoring of the marine environment

Page 27: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

• Vavrus, S. J., Holland, M. M., Jahn, A., Bailey, D. A., & Blazey, B. A. (2012). Twenty - First - Century Arctic Climate Change in CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 2696-2710.

• Holland, M. .., & Stroeve, J. (2011). Changing seasonal sea ice predictor relationships in a changing Arctic climate. Geophysical Research Letters, L18501.

• Lenton, T. M. (2012). Arctic Climate Tipping Points. Ambio , 10-22.• Vasilyev, V. .., Selin, V. .., & Tereshchenko, E. .. (2011). Socioeconomic

consequences of anticipated climate change in the Arctic. Regional Research of Russia, 128-132.

• Kattsov, V. .., Ryabinin, V. .., Overland, J. .., Serreze, M. .., Visbeck, M. .., Walsh, J. .., et al. ( 2010). Arctic sea - ice change : a grand challenge of climate science. Journal of Glaciology, 1115-1121.

Page 28: Arctic  Naval  Security

Arctic Naval Security

Thank You

Colin MansonManson Oceanographic Consultancy

[email protected]

Lee-on-the Solent, UK