architects of an internet world broadband wireless “happenings” george hendry alcatel
TRANSCRIPT
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD
Broadband Wireless Broadband Wireless
““HAPPENINGS” HAPPENINGS”
George HendryGeorge HendryAlcatelAlcatel
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD
Broadband WirelessHealth Assessment
“”Doesn’t work in rain” “Can’t compete with DSL” “Stumbled at the starting gate” “Stillbirth of BB Wireless” “Wireless won’t work” “Optics is the only solution” “No equipment” “Equipment too expensive”
Naysayers are having fun
Pontificators and sideliners became instant experts
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLDBroadband WirelessHealth Assessment
ARE WE DEAD?ARE WE DYING?
ARE WE SICK?
NO WAY!!We ARE having birthing pains ----- Just like any other new technology
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Market Evolution
Segmentation in the Market North America -- ROW Small Operators -- Large Operators Urban -- Suburban -- Rural Large/Medium/Small Business SOHO/Residential “Pipe Size” for early NA customers is larger than expected
Leads to early adopters going for dedicated pipes instead of shared BW systems
Larger NA operators consuming their resources trying to get large pipes to these large customers
This drives the need for different solutions for different markets
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD North America -- ROW
International deployments outpacing North America Hanaro Telecom
10,000 subscribers in less than 1 year New subscribers at 1000 per week
Why the difference? Early PMP solutions tend to suit the ROW market better than US
Market Competing service offerings not as strong Tariffs are higher Regulatory constraints some time limit use of other technologies (P-P
microwave, unbundled copper, fiber plant)
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Alcatel Deployments
North AmericaFarmers Telephone Maxlink, Prime CompaniesRegional IOCs
Latin AmericaBellsouth Int., Convergence,Entel, Mobicom, Pegaso, Rey Moreno (Telefonica),Techtel
EuropeBroadNetCallino, Cegetel, E-Plus, Eltele, ETI, Firstmark,Formus,Intracom/ETE,KPN, LandTel,ProFuturo, Retevision,Skypoint, Telecel, Telefonica, Telenor, Telenordia, Teracom, Tesion, Westgate
Middle East, AfricaEurocom
Asia PacificCESEC, Clear, Hanaro, Keppel, Korea Telecom, Pacific Internet, Optus, Smartone
Over 100 networks in deploymentOver 1700 Base stations installed
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD What HAS happened
Deployments ARE underway -
to date, primarily high capacity PTP in the US
lots of PMP in the rest of the world
We’re coming up the learning curve
Vendors ARE delivering solutions for the different requirements
New features ARE coming out
Equipment cost IS dropping
But the Market Is still evolving
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD What has NOT Happened
I have not become independently wealthy
No major deployments of PMP in the U.S.
As yet no large US operator is championing
multipoint wireless as a primary national access
mode (but we are getting close)
No indisputable proof yet of PMP business case
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD
No major PMP deployments in the U.S. Vendors:
Lack of deployable equipment to fit the various needs No longer a problem as of this year
Operators: Some are in a “wait and see” mode Many are fully consumed with other parts of the business and
deploying other technologies such as point-to-point microwave, fiber, DSL,……
Why Not?
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Why Not ?
No large operator is championing multipoint wireless Other opportunities consuming resources Point-to-Multipoint is a small-medium business
technology -- much of their current business is medium-large businesses PTP.
Acquisition of roof top rights is consuming and fatiguing
“Once you have the roof - put lots of bits to it”
No proof yet of PMP business case We’re too early in the rollout curve to see the proof
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD WHEN will it happen? Worldwide deployments will escalate
quickly in 2001 North America PTP and PMP deployments
will likely be slow the first half of the year Economic conditions Availability of capital Users waiting on proof of technology
2nd half COULD be the start of a steep ramp-up
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD WHAT will MAKE it happen
Enablers Vendors perform on product delivery
Volume Features Cost
We need a good reference system in North America Which technology is irrelevant Reasonable size with 100s of subscribers
Large operator endorsement of technology
ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Summary & Predictions
Significant deployments outside North America
Quick increase in N.A. during second half of year
Consolidations will occur - both Operators & Vendors
There will be some casualties
Surprising new operators will come on the scene