arc seibersdorf research gmbh treatment of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories:...

ARC Seibersdorf research GmbH

seibersdorf researchEin Unternehmen der Austrian Research Centers.

Treatment of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories: General approach and

specific experience for Austria

Wilfried Winiwarter



IPCC Expert Group on Good Practice in Inventory Preparation

CHAPTERS

1. Introduction1. Introduction

2. Energy2. Energy

3. Industrial Processes3. Industrial Processes

4. Agriculture 4. Agriculture

5. Waste 5. Waste

6. Quantifying Uncertainties in Practice 6. Quantifying Uncertainties in Practice

7. Methodological Choice and Recalculation7. Methodological Choice and Recalculation

8. Quality Assurance and Quality Control8. Quality Assurance and Quality Control

ANNEXESAnnex 1. Conceptual Basis for Annex 1. Conceptual Basis for

Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty Analysis Annex 2. VerificationAnnex 2. Verification Annex 3. GlossaryAnnex 3. GlossaryAnnex 4. List of ParticipantsAnnex 4. List of Participants



Issues relevant to uncertainty calculation

Quality Assurance and Quality Control(procedural recommendations)

Methodological Choice and Recalculation(selection criteria for key sources to focus resources)

Verification (quantitative checks and comparison with ambient air)

Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Analysis (mathematical background for uncertainty calculations)

Quantifying Uncertainties in Practice (from uncertain inputs to resulting uncertainties)



Uncertainty calculations for Austria Input uncertainties:Input uncertainties:

Statistical differencesStatistical differences Reported variationReported variation Expert judgementExpert judgement EstimationEstimation

Treatment of systematic errorsTreatment of systematic errors Magnitude of unknown systematic errors assumed to be of Magnitude of unknown systematic errors assumed to be of

the same size as errors identifiedthe same size as errors identified

Monte-Carlo approachMonte-Carlo approach impressiveimpressive easy to operateeasy to operate allows handling of co-variancesallows handling of co-variances supports sensitivity analysissupports sensitivity analysis



0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8

Sensitivity (RSqr=0,99)

Agr. soils-N2O (EF)

Solid w aste disp. (act.)

Abandonm. managed lands(act.)

forest soil-N2O (EF)

Ent. Ferm.-Cattle-CH4 (EF)

Solid w aste disp.-CH4 (EF)

Agr. soils-CH4 (EF)

Energy conv.-solid (act.)

Abandonm. managed lands(EF)

Energy conv.-gas (act.)

Sensitivity studies Input uncertainties

total uncertainty influenced by few inputs

requirement to deep investigation limited

Uncertainty by gassimilar variances for CO2, CH4, N2O

when decreasing variance of any gas little change to overall uncertainty

when increasing variance of any gas increase of overall uncertainty

Robustness to assumptions onprobability density function



International comparisons

CO2

CH4

N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

TotalTotal trend (1990-2010)

Austria 2

4890......105

Norway 3

2220050405

214

Netherlands 3

173441

100504.4..

UK 4

17230242013194

USA 3

3612025....13..

all uncertainties in % (2s), trend in %-points



Conclusions

It is possible to assess the uncertainty of national GHG emission inventories

Personal judgement (of experts ...) does have influence on uncertainty estimates

Scenario analysis and sensitivity runs allow to assess this influence and to understand / evaluate it

Intuitive aspect gains weight when uncertainties are larger



Acknowledgements: Kristin Rypdal for setting the concept into the perspective of IPCC; Environmental Federal Agency (UBA) Vienna, specifically Klaus Radunsky; Rudi Orthofer for important comments and ideas; and the experts willing to contribute to our survey ....

arc seibersdorf research gmbh treatment of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories:...

Documents