arab world towards a sustainable economic growth dr. a.morssy chief middle east &arab programme...

ARAB WORLDTOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Dr. A.MORSSYChief

Middle East &Arab ProgrammeUNIDO/Vienna

20-22 December 2011- AIDMO ConferenceMOROCCO- RABAT

2

ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Outline of the Presentation

UNIDO Strategy

Sustainable Development

Economic Development in the Arab Region

Prospects for Growth in the Energy Rich Countries

Prospects for Growth in the Energy Poor Countries

Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP)

Greening Industries

3


UNIDO launched in 2008 a strategic initiative on Green Industry to emphasize the positive role of industry in advancing sustainable industrial development.

UNIDO is promoting sustainable manufacturing as the creation of products that use sustainable processes to minimize negative environmental impacts.

These processes also conserve energy and natural resources, and are: safe for employers, communities and consumers; environmentally-economically sound.

UNIDO Strategy

4


A green economy (GE) can be defined as one that results in improved human well-being and social equity.

A GE also significantly reduces environmental risks and ecological scarcities.

A GE is characterized by substantially increased investments in economic sectors that build on and enhance the Earth’s natural capital.

Increased investment in industrial development resulting in additional employment and wealth as a route to environmental improvement and sustainability.

UNIDO & Green Economy (1/2)

5


These sectors include renewable energy, low-carbon transport, energy-efficient buildings and clean technologies.

They also include improved waste management and freshwater provision, sustainable agriculture and forest management, as well as sustainable fisheries.

These investments are driven or supported by national policy reforms and the development of international policy and market infrastructure.

UNIDO & Green Economy (2/2)

6


Industrial Sustainable Development Strategic Directions Investors should require all companies to report on

their long-term strategy and how it makes the business more sustainable.

It should demonstrate that they have a plan to address the impacts of future systemic risks, including:

climate change water stress biodiversity population growth and urbanization changing demographics.

7


Consumer benefits Productivity gains

Improved Market access

Reduced Environmental degradation

Resource and energy efficiencyEnvironmentally friendly production

Policy and regulatory framework

awareness and advocacy

Incentive and financial

mechanismsservices

Enhanced capacities

IndustriesGeneral public other service providers

Government

Programme/Project

Enabling Policy and institutional

environment

Impact

Outcome

Components

Key actors

Su

sta

inab

le D

evelo

pm

en

t

Sustainable Economic growth and poverty reduction

8


Recovering from global crisis, and parts of the Region are witnessing political and economic changes.

Economic situation is aggravated by high youth unemployment absence of Institutions frameworks rising food prices

Economic growth, which was already slow (for oil importers), is expected to falter as tourism revenues drop.

This will result in significant slowdown in business climate and financial transactions.

Economic Development in the Arab Region

9


For the future, the world will continue to depend on oil pumped from the Arab region, especially the Persian Gulf.

The region will continue to account for a third of global production in 2020.

The Gulf states will remain the world’s lowest-cost producers and hold more than half of global reserves.

Prospects for Growth in the Energy Rich Countries (1/3)

10


The primary reason for the poor economic performance of these the ‘energy-rich’ countries the productivity factor has been declines.

These declines have been due to:


poor investment decisions;

microeconomic policies, especially price subsidies; and

11


Economic output in the energy rich, especially for the smaller Gulf states, will continue to be closely linked to oil output and prices.

However, oil and gas exports will serve more as a foundation than a driver of growth.

Only in Iraq and Qatar are increases in oil production likely to exceed population growth through 2020.


12


Improvements in economic policies have contributed to more rapid growth, specially because of:

If growth recovers, the energy poor will enjoy increases in per capita incomes through 2020.

Prospects for Growth in the Energy Poor

unifying exchange rates;

reducing tariffs and other barriers to trade; and

privatization.

13


MENA’s population is one of the fastest growing populations in the world.

Population has grown 19 % over the last 10 years.

World’s population grew by 11 percent.

MENA countries import 30% of the world’s traded wheat.

MENA wheat imports are projected to rise 55% by 2030 from 2010 levels.

Development in MENA countries (1/2)

14


Heavy reliance on international commodity markets raises both price and supply concerns for the MENA countries.

Over the last nine months

40% rise in the cereal price index

77% rise in the sugar price index (FAO Food Price Indices Jun 2010 – Dec 2010)

Together, these two commodities comprise roughly: 61% of per capita caloric consumption in the region

which is 7% points higher than the worldwide average.

Development in the MENA countries (2/2)

15


Analytical support for macro, and financial stability (financing and knowledge).

Managing inflation/food prices (knowledge).

Employment creation programs; scale-up of public works, cash transfer and micro finance.

Protection for the Poor (financing and knowledge).

Governance, including economic, corporate, and banking (knowledge).

Guidelines for Achieving Economic Growth in the Arab Region (1/3)

16


Creating an enabling environment for Private sector development & promoting Regional integration.

Provide quick financing, backed by reforms.

Assess relevance of younger portfolios and restructuring to address immediate needs.

Provide knowledge through intensive dialogue and just-in-time analysis for policy choices.

Redeploy human resources based on priority themes.


17


Encourage economic liberalization in the region.

The Arab countries should work together and improve economic performance through regional integration.

Encourage these countries to better target subsidies and reduce costs and hurdles facing the private sector.


18


SD stands for meeting the needs of present generations without jeopardizing the ability of futures generations to meet their own needs.

Otherwise said, a better quality of life for everyone, now and for generations to come.

This requires changes in thinking, in economic and social structures and in consumption and production patterns.

Sustainable Development / SD

19


To increase factor productivity, these countries need to reduce price distortions by cutting producer and, consumer price subsidies.

Reduce barriers to trade and foreign investment.

Continued expansion and integration of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) would do much to increase competition and improve factor productivity.

Privatization of non-energy-sector assets has improved efficiency and generated rapid growth.

How to promote Economic Growth in the GCC? (1/3)

20


A more intensive approach to privatization would generate additional benefits in terms of accelerated growth in factor productivity.

Energy-rich countries should adopt policies to foster more-efficient use of resources.

Going forward, we expect the GCC countries to continue to push ahead with economic liberalization, regional integration, and privatization.


21


None of the energy rich has successfully addressed the issue of state employment.

GCC countries have created jobs in private finance and service industries and have become socially acceptable.

However, government jobs remain the preferred employer.


22


SCP is focusing on improving the overall environmental performance of products throughout their life-cycle.

The goal is to boost the demand for better production technologies and to help consumers in making better choices.

SCP contributes to the objective of sustainable development in key areas such as:

Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP)

climate change and clean energy;

energy saving and energy efficiency;

efficient use of natural resources;

handling of chemicals and waste.

23


Green industries are fully committed to implementing the following methods:

Greening Industries

Resource efficiency and Cleaner Production

Environmentally Sound Technology;

Environmentally sound management of chemicals;

Integrated waste management;

Using renewable resources (Raw materials& energy);

Applying Eco-design of products and performing above approach on continuous basis.

24


ENVIRONMENTAL BOUNDARIES

E1: Greenhouse gases

E2: Natural habitatsE3: Waste

E4: Water

E5: Ocean acidity

E6: Non-renewable resources

E7: Renewable resources

E8: Soil productivity

E9: Chemicals

E10: Atmospheric aerosols

E11: Ozone

E12: Nitrogen & Phosphorous

SOCIAL CONDITIONS

S1: Hunger

S2: Obesity

S3: Poverty

S4: Health

S5: Reproductive rights

S6: Water & Sanitation

S7: Education

S8: Shelter

S9: Information

S10: Energy

S11: Human Rights

S12: Governance

S13: Trust

S14: Civil society

S15: Science

S16: Sustainable Values

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ECONOMY

C1: Stabilises concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a ‘safe’ level

C2: Builds resilience of natural and human systems to cope with a changing climate

C3: Minimises pollution

C4: Maximises the material efficiency of the economy

C5: Maximises land use efficiency

C6: Maximises land efficiency

C7: Measures wealth by more than just GDP – including data on human development and wellbeing.

C8: Builds capacity for individuals to participate in the economy and supports sustainable livelihoods.

C9: Incentivises behaviour change in line with the sustainable economy.

C10: Promotes fair terms for all global trade, in order to facilitate greater levels of economic equity.

C11: Eliminates all perverse subsidies.

C12: Allocates capital sustainably through financial markets.

C13: Promotes the equitable distribution of resources.

C14: Promotes the free flow of information and knowledge.

C15: Builds in the cost of all social and environmental externalities into valuations.

A FLEXIBLE, SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY THAT MAXIMISES QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALL, SO THAT

PEOPLE CAN DEVELOP THEIR FULL POTENTIAL AND LEAD PRODUCTIVE, CREATIVE LIVES WITHIN

ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITS.

SECTOR VISIONS CALL TO ACTIONFRAMEWORK CONCLUSION

Recommendations for Sustainable Economic Growth

25


THANK YOUfor your kind attention!

Azza Morssy

Chief, UNIDO Middle East and Arab Programme

Development and Technical Cooperation Division

Vienna International Centre,

P.O.Box.300 A-1400 Vienna, Austria

Tel: +43-1-26026-3841

Fax: +43-1-26026-6848

[email protected]

arab world towards a sustainable economic growth dr. a.morssy chief middle east &arab programme...

Documents

sustainable processes

sustainable agriculture

sustainable manufacturing

sustainable fisheries

arab world

economic sectors

unido strategy slide

arab region prospects