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From Conflict to Coping:

Evidence on the contributions of peacebuilding to drought resilience

among pastoralist groups

April 25, 2012

Overview

1. Purpose of the study

2. Key findings and supporting evidence

3. Implications

Test the program theory linking peacebuilding to drought resilience

Aim

Context: Somali-Oromiya regions of Ethiopia

Source: Temesgen, A.K., Climate Change to Conflict? Lessons Learned from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya. Fafo, 2010.

Sources and Methods

Before (baseline) After (mid-term)

Program target groups

Participatory assessment

HH survey (n=769)

Participatory assessment (4 communities x 3 FGDs x 10 pax; n=120)

HH survey (n=140)

Comparison groupsRecall from participatory assessment

Participatory assessment(2 communities x 2 FGDs x 10 pax; n=40)

Key Finding #1

Improved peace and security within the intervention areas have created conditions that enable greater freedom of movement and access to important resources that pastoralist groups depend on to cope with and adapt to severe drought.

HH Survey Findings

Inability to access resources due to insecurity in target areas

Aggregated Focus Group Scores

Change in reported access to key resources (from one year prior)

Greatly increased

Key Finding #2

Pastoralist groups who have greater freedom of movement and access to natural resources are less likely to have to rely on distressful coping mechanisms in response to extreme drought and more likely to be able to employ adaptive capacities.

HH Survey Findings

Factors associated with use of distressful coping mechanisms

HH Survey Findings

Perceived Change of Proportion of Families Relying on Coping Strategies

Aggregated Focus Group Scores

Implications

• Treat conflict as a disaster risk to be reduced, rather than an externality

• Strengthen local governance and social cohesion that underpin resilience

• Invest in efforts to identify accurate measures and predictors of resilience