april | 2016 snapshotapril | 2016 ipsos public affairs snapshot to access the full report, be a...
TRANSCRIPT
April | 2016
IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS
snapshotTo access the full report, be a subscriber of PULSO BRASIL
Survey date - April 02–14, 2016. Margin - 3 p.p.
2 © 2016 Ipsos.
Politics, Economy, Consumption & Social AgendaPULSO BRASIL
• Country’s Directions
• President’s approval rating
• Political barometer
• Electoral potential
• Political agenda
• Consumer Confidence Index
• Main household expenses
• Disposable income
• Investment, savings and financial safety
POLITICS ECONOMY
• Impact of the crisis on consumption and trading down
• Behavior and purchase intention
• Consumer goods
• Durables
CONSUMPTION
• The country's main problems
• Public policies
• Economic and social agenda
• Values & behaviors
SOCIAL
3 © 2016 Ipsos.
3
1,200 interviews,personal and in-home, carried out monthly in
72 municipalities across Brazil.Probabilistic sample, with quota in the last selectionstage and ± 3 percentage points margin of error,representative of the Brazilian population -in urban areas - according to IBGE’s official data (Census2010 and PNAD 2013).
16 to24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 59
60 or +
19% 23% 24% 23% 23%
AGE RANGE
52%
48%
SIZE (NUMBER OF INHABITANTS)
4 MUNICIPALITIES
100 INTERVIEWS
N8.3%
22 MUNICIPALITIES
290 INTERVIEWS
NE24.2%
4 MUNICIPALITIES
100 INTERVIEWS
MW8.3%
12 MUNICIPALITIES
160 INTERVIEWS
S13.4%
30 MUNICIPALITIES
550 INTERVIEWS
SE45.8%
24 MUNICIPALITIES
240 INTERVIEWS
13 MUNICIPALITIES
130 INTERVIEWS
20 MUNICIPALITIES
330 INTERVIEWS
15 MUNICIPALITIES
500 INTERVIEWS
Less than
100,000
100,000to 500,000
500,000to 1 million
More than
1 million
SIZE (NUMBER OF INHABITANTS)
22 MUNICIPALITIES
570 INTERVIEWS
39 MUNICIPALITIES
450 INTERVIEWS
11 MUNICIPALITIES
180 INTERVIEWS
Capitals
Interior
Metropolitan Areas
PULSO BRASIL
4 © 2016 Ipsos.
CONTEXTPULSO BRASIL
The high disapproval of Dilma Roussef’s administration and the country’s erroneous direction result in nearly 60% of support for the impeachment - which is lower (43%) in classes D and E.
5 © 2016 Ipsos.
61
81
60
7
71
58
93
Ab
rJu
nA
goO
ut
Dez
Fev
Ab
rJu
nA
goO
ut
Dez
Fev
Ab
rJu
nA
goN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
Mai Ju
lSe
tN
ov
Jan
Mar
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Certo Errado
COUNTRY DIRECTIONPULSO BRASIL
In your opinion, generally speaking, do you think that Brazil is on the right direction or not?
‘Mensalão’2005
Lula's 2nd term2006
Elections, Dilma Roussef starts her
term 2010/11
Presidential elections
2014
Manifestations 2013
Apr
Impeachment Voting 2016
Right Wrong
6 © 2016 Ipsos.
PRESIDENT - APPROVAL INDEXPULSO BRASIL
Do you think that President Dilma Rousseff's administration is very good, good, regular, bad or very bad?
6
17
76
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
Jun
Ago
Ou
t
Dez
Fev
Ab
r
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ótima / Boa Regular Ruim / PéssimaVery good/good Bar/Very badRegular
7 © 2016 Ipsos.
Impeachment: lower support in classes D/EPULSO BRASIL
Would you say you support or not the Impeachment?
48
5460 60
5561
59
3228
22 22 25 2426
14
14 12 13 14 12
12
mars 15 avr 15 mai 15 juin 15 juil 15 août 15 sept 15 oct 15 nov 15 déc 15 janv 16 févr 16 mars 16 avr 16
Support Don't support Undecided
46
59 62 6656
64 65
32 25 21 2030 25 24
16 12 11 12 11 10 9
mars15
avr15
mai15
juin15
juil15
août15
sept15
oct15
nov15
déc15
janv16
févr16
mars16
avr16
SEL AB
5152
63 6154
62 61
3129
21 21 25 23 24
14 15 11 13 15 13 10
mars15
avr15
mai15
juin15
juil15
août15
sept15
oct15
nov15
déc15
janv16
févr16
mars16
avr16
SEL C
4350 49 50 55 55
43
3431 27 25
192533
12 14 15 13 15 1118
mars15
avr15
mai15
juin15
juil15
août15
sept15
oct15
nov15
déc15
janv16
févr16
mars16
avr16
SEL DE
8 © 2016 Ipsos.
FINANCE & CONFIDENCEPULSO BRASIL
Consumer’s confidence has reached the lowest level considering all the historical series, and is at 64 points.
9 © 2016 Ipsos.
010
2030
40 50 6070
8090100
Northeast
Southeast
South
DOMESTIC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 64 POINTS
IN THE CCI, VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 200 POINTS INDICATE OPTIMISM; WHILE VALUES BETWEEN ZERO AND 100 INDICATE PESSIMISM.
Source: ACSP / Ipsos
82
53
59
C
DE
AB
49
63
81
PULSO BRASIL
North/MW
70
REGION
010
2030
40 50 6070
8090100
010
2030
40 50 6070
8090100
010
2030
40 50 6070
8090100
010
2030
40 50 6070
8090100
010
2030
40 50 6070
8090100
010
2030
40 50 6070
8090100
150 150156
138
103
73
64
Ja
nF
ev
Mar
Ab
rM
ai
Ju
nJu
lA
go
Se
tO
ut
Nov
Dez
Ja
nF
ev
Mar
Ab
rM
ai
Ju
nJu
lA
go
Se
tO
ut
Nov
Dez
Ja
nF
ev
Mar
Ab
rM
ai
Ju
nJu
lA
go
Se
tO
ut
Nov
Dez
Ja
nF
ev
Mar
Ab
rM
ai
Ju
nJu
lA
go
Se
tO
ut
Nov
Dez
Ja
nF
ev
Mar
Ab
rM
ai
Ju
nJu
lA
go
Se
tO
ut
Nov
Dez
Ja
nF
ev
Mar
Ab
rM
ai
Ju
nJu
lA
go
Se
tO
ut
Nov
Dez
Ja
nF
ev
Mar
Ab
r
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CLASS
10 © 2016 Ipsos.
IC3.Please evaluate your personal financial standing, assigning a score from 1 to 7. Assign 7 if your current personal financial standing is very good and 1 if your current personal financial standing is very bad. (moving average)IC4) Having in mind the next 6 months, do you think your personal financial standing will be much better, a little better, more or less the same, a little worse or much worse than it is today?
10
Financial standing
next 6 months
Financial standing
TODAY
PULSO BRASIL
EVALUATION OF PERSONAL FINANCIAL STANDINGJAN/2010 JAN/2013 FEB/2015 APR/2016
51
24
Muito ruim + ruim + razoavelmente ruim Muito boa + boa + razoavelmente boa
2737
Muito melhor + um pouco melhor Muito pior + um pouco pior
Very bad + bad + reasonably bad Very good + good + reasonably good
Much better + a little better Much worse + a little worse
11 © 2016 Ipsos.
BRAZILIAN’S AGENDAPULSO BRASIL
A country in economic depression, political instability and injured pride. What are the main problems to be solved to revert this situation?
12 © 2016 Ipsos.
How does it feel to be a Brazilian?PULSO BRASIL
How do you feel about the fact that you are a Brazilian?
50
41
32
21
20
29
27
23
40
29
9
18
19
14
14
12
11
21
20
35
0
3
4
4
2
Northeast
Midwest
Southeast
North
South
I'm very proud of being a Brazilian I'm a little proud of being a Brazilian I'm not proud of being a Brazilian
I'm ashamed of being a Brazilian Don't know/Didn't answer
34
27
16
203
Total
13 © 2016 Ipsos.
BRAZIL'S PROBLEMS – Top 4PULSO BRASIL
PB1) Thinking about Brazil in general, what problems on this list should be solved first?
Pulso Brasil – Mar/2016 Base: 1200
27
16
13
9
28
1210
14
26
1614
8
28
22
15
4
Unemployment Violence Health Corruption
TOTAL Class AB Class C Class DE o Unemployment currently is the main problem to be solved in the country. This concern is present in all social classes.
o Violence and Health come next - the first one more present among classes D/E, reflecting the greater insecurity that exists in the outskirts.
o Corruption appears as fourth and is a more priority agenda among individuals of
classes AB.
14 © 2016 Ipsos.
SOCIAL AREAPULSO BRASIL
With which of these two statements do you most agree with:
73
5866 6867 62 66
72
Education Health Public Safety Social Area
Use existing financial resources in a better way
26
4133 3028
33 2922
Education Health Public Safety Social Area
Have more financial resources
Apr-05 Apr-16
For at least 10 years we have noticed a consensus in public opinion about solving social problems properly: to use
existing financial resources in a better way. This perception is the result of years of poor public services that affectpeople's lives. The corruption scandals also openly reveal the fact that resources, which should be used as socialinvestments, end up wasted away in the ‘drains’ of the administrative impropriety.
15 © 2016 Ipsos.
IPSOS’ POINT OF VIEWPULSO BRASIL
With the impeachment process in progress, the country is in the standby pace. What to expect in the coming months?
16 © 2016 Ipsos.
Ipsos’ Point of View (1/3)
PULSO BRASIL
April witnessed the unfolding of another impeachment process in the young Brazilian democracy.
On April 17 the House of Representatives approved the continuity of President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment process in Congress. There were 367 votes in favor and 137 against, plus another 7 abstentions and 2 absences. Now, the request for the President’s step down is following on in the Senate that is analyzing it.
If a simple majority of Senators - 41 votes - accepts the process that was initiated in the House of Representatives, the President is required to step down from Office for a period of up to 180 days, until when the trial should take place. Dilma Rousseff continues stating she won't resign. The chance to call for new elections also seems to have tapered off.
In this context, Pulso Brasil’s political indicators were as follows: in March, 81% of respondents regarded Dilma Rousseff’s administration as bad or very bad. This index dropped to 76% in April. The direction in which the country is heading was considered wrong for 94% of the people in March; in the April wave, this index was at 93%.
The support for impeachment - that in March was 61% - was 59% in April. This variation is within the survey’s margin of error. The data of Pulso Brasil has shown that the higher the socio-economic level is, the greater is the support for the impeachment. In classes D and E, 43% support it and 33% do not.
It is also in these social classes that less criticism is found when evaluating the country and Dilma Rousseff’s administration in comparison to classes A, B and C. This phenomenon is also observed in the North and Northeast - if compared to other regions of the country. These indicators partly explain the reason why the support for the impeachment has consolidated at the 60% level over the last few months. Pulso Brasil’s full report includes more detailed analyses about this phenomenon.
17 © 2016 Ipsos.
Ipsos’ Point of View (2/3)
PULSO BRASIL
The Brazilian’s agenda: fighting corruption and the concerns about the economy
The fight against corruption has increasingly taken up space in the agenda of Brazilians, but the economic and social problems are what most torment the population.
Unemployment is seen by 27% of the respondents as the number 1 problem to be solved. Crimes and violence, with 16% of mentions, poor quality of medical care, with 13% and corruption/embezzlement with 9% of the mentions comes next. The anti-corruption agenda is more present in the concerns of AB classes, while problems related to violence appear with higher incidence in classes D and E.
Considering the 10 years of monitoring the Brazilian social indicators, once again we are investigating the public opinion’s perception about the management of financial resources. Just like in 2005, Brazilians – in their vast majority - believe that social problems, such as health, education and public safety, do not need more financial resources but better use of those existing.
In addition, the mismanagement of the public sector is increasingly latent and present in the daily lives of Brazilians. Not only because of the current institutional crisis, which is severally hitting the federal Government, but also due to the financial crisis that affects a number of States and municipalities, by delaying the salary of civil servants - worsening essential services (which have always been very poorly evaluated in Brazil) - and by the increasingly evident disregard for social issues and welfare of citizens - the corruption scandals expose the correlation between administrative impropriety and poor quality of life.
Pulso Brasil’s full report includes more detailed analyses about a number of other issues on the agenda of Brazilians, such as inflation, taxes, structural reforms, among other relevant topics.
18 © 2016 Ipsos.
Ipsos’ Point of View (3/3)
PULSO BRASIL
Consumer confidence has never been so low
Ipsos/ACSP consumer confidence index, monitored since 2005, has reached its lowest level in history, and is at 64 points - vis-à-vis the 73points recorded in March. The Southeast region presents the lowest index, at 53 points. According to the IBGE's PME (Portuguese version for Monthly Employment Research) data, this is the region that has been the most affected by unemployment. The South Region, which also has suffered strong economic slowdown, presented 59 points in the index.
We live in an environment of political and economic instability, which has ended up in a dramatic crisis of confidence: be it with consumption, be it with institutions. There are two aggravating circumstance in this situation: Brazilians live a huge insecurity regarding employment, which consequently creates more distrust regarding the future. As a result, the consumption and the economy have sunk into the negative spiral of recession.
Political Barometer
To react to the crisis, a number of measures should be taken by the Temer administration (be it temporary or effective). To adopt these measures, the President-in-Office will have to rely on the support of the population, the market and the Congress.
Pulso Brasil has been monitoring the endorsement of public opinion regarding the necessary reforms in Brazil, as well as the support to major political personalities in the country. This analysis allows us to understand the degree of governability that the next administration will have when facing the challenges that the Brazilian situation will impose, as well as picture scenarios for the medium and long term. This detailed analysis is contained in the full report of Pulso Brasil.
To access the full Pulso Brasil report, please contact: [email protected]
19 © 2016 Ipsos.
Be a subscriber of
Danilo CersosimoDirector, PULSO BRASIL
Ipsos Public Affairs [email protected]
+55 11 2159-8578
Tamires FauoazResearch Executive Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected] +55 11 2159-8593
Luiza OliveiraResearch Executive Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected] +55 11 2159-8756
Priscilla BrancoResearch Executive Ipsos Public Affairs
[email protected] +55 11 2159-8726