News update

>> Plans for 25m visitors for World Expo 2020

>> Dubai World hires Blackstone to look at debt options

>> New UAE airline Rotana Jet spreads its wings, keeps an eye on Expo 2020

>> Egypt approves draft law barring challenges to contract

>> FDI in UAE reaches USD12bn in 2013

>> Middle East funds ready to buy equities on dips-survey

>> Dubai bourse to hold roadshow in London

>> Dubai SME to map angel investors in UAE to facilitate SME financing

>> Dubai allocates 5% of annual budget to empower young entrepreneurs

>> UAE to spend more than $300 billion on infrastructure development by 2030

Supercar rentals blazing to new speeds

To Buy or Build? Making sense of Management Information Systems

Saudi real estate sector gains momentum

>> Read more >> Read more>> Read more >> Read more >> Read more

APRIL 2014 Vol. 3 - No. 5

Gulf equities outliers among emerging markets

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Supercar rentals blazing to new speedsBy Hisham Wyne

The GCC market loves its luxury cars. McLaren, Bugatti, Bentley, Audi and BMW have all been seeing significant positive movement in the market since 2012, when the region shook off the vestiges of the economic recession.

The rental market is growing simultaneously, though the audience might be different. The hiring of exotics and luxury vehicles is usually dependent on a transient short-stay audience. Often, these car enthusiasts own exotics themselves, and want to ride in similar style when in the UAE. The luxury car hire market also benefits from a local audience that wants to ‘staycation’ in style.

By some estimates, the luxury car hire market is destined for 20% growth over the next three to four years. And Jonathan Bedeman, Operations Manager, HDS Group, said the group’s luxury rental division has definitely felt the upturn.

“The market is heating up. The first quarter of 2014 has been really good for us.”

HDS’ car rental market is dependent on tourism. And with 7.9 million visitors in the first nine months of 2013, Dubai is an excellent hub for the firm to be operating out of. “We get a lot of clients from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar. They’re definitely in the higher category of income. And then we also cater to a lot of Eastern European clients – Russia and so forth, who are really into their cars. I would definitely say though that our Gulf clients are the most regular,” Bedeman said.

The luxury and exotic car hire market comes with perks. Free car drop-offs and pickups are standard. Clients can also ask for chauffeur services. But it’s mostly a market for individuals – perhaps because families might want something more practical. “We usually get individual clients coming in. Some would come in with their partners. But our cars are mostly rented at an individual level,” Bedeman noted.

Like most tourist and visitor-driven markets, luxury car hire goes through weekly cycles. “Usually, the weekend will always be busy. Many people hire our exotics from a Thursday up to – strangely – a Tuesday.”

In a world where cars habitually cost more than AED 800,000 and every vehicle is a head-turner, there are still favorites. Ferraris and Lamborghinis remain popular for their ability to turn heads. They might not be the most practical for daily use, but exotic car hire is about the attention, not the volume of groceries

the boot might hold.

According to Bedeman, the new Ferrari 458 is making waves in the exotic rental market. “Our most popular is definitely the Ferrari 458. It’s a practical sports car that demands attention and people enjoy riding it. It’s an easy drive. When it comes to the more luxurious cars, we’ve got the Rolls Royce Phantom that is popular. Obviously, people hire that when they want to show true class and elegance.”

Clients in the market for super luxury or exotic cars are usually not price sensitive. The competition here is about accessibility, personalization and developing client relations. Value adding services are commonplace, and transparency rules the roost. “The important thing is to offer a very honest service. Clients appreciate that. Our service quality is also of very high standards,” Bedeman said.

And of course, no one’s happy with last year’s models. The bleeding edge of the supercar rental market is an expensive proposition for car hire agencies because of the need to keep up with new launches. “Clients really appreciate that at HDS we bring in the latest models, and ensure we stock exciting cars as soon as they are available, such as the Lamborghini Aventador,” Bedeman added.

The GCC is enjoying an economic upturn. And Dubai in particular is basking in frenetic market activity and positive economic forces after securing the rights to Expo 2020. “Dubai’s Expo 2020 win means that the next five years will certainly be very good for the luxury car market.

And we’re definitely planning for that,” he said.

But opportunity attracts competition. And the sheer number of players in the market have driven exotic car hire prices down to surprisingly affordable levels. Some websites have Ferraris going for less than AED 2,500 a day. Hardly a steal, but at least it wouldn’t require one to re-mortgage an apartment. © Zawya

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To Buy or Build? Making sense of Management Information SystemsBy Rob Green

Management Information Systems (MIS) are everywhere. You’d find it difficult to pin down an organization that doesn’t use one. But what do they do?

The clue is in the name: MIS are designed to offer information that is useful to managers. They generate useful reports, allowing line managers to keep track of operations.

To understand the MIS, one must start with its lowly cousin, the TPS, or Transaction Processing System. These are perhaps the most common form of system, and cover just about anything used to record data and conduct any form of business.

Cash tills at the supermarket are a form of TPS – they ring up and store purchases, and can generate receipts. So are Excel sheets

with sales records, payroll systems and those that tally back office stocks. The bank teller’s machine is a TPS, as is the check deposit machine. So too is an ATM. The list is endless.

TPS are incredibly efficient at storing transactions in the form of pure data. But their usefulness for managers is limited. The reordering manager at a supermarket does not want to go through every single sale for carrots and cereal transacted in a certain day. But he does want to know which items move fast, which need to be reordered, and which have languishing on the bottom shelves for over a month. A TPS might be able to record every transaction at a bank. But it takes an MIS to compile that data and tell the branch manager that AED5 million in deposits have come in during working hours, with 12 loan applications received and 75 checks cashed. That’s valuable information.

That’s the beauty of MIS – turning huge amounts of raw data into actionable information that actually tells managers something about the state of the business. But make no mistake – MIS don’t work in a vacuum. They need a TPS under them to query for raw data. So when deciding how to implement an MIS, the biggest box to be checked is compatibility. If the MIS doesn’t get along with its TPS, everything goes wrong.

Once that box has been checked, the next step is to figure out whether to buy off the shelf, or build one. There are several MIS available for banks, for supermarkets, for

stock management and for HR. Of course, the problem is that you’d need a compatible TPS, perhaps from the same seller. That adds substantially to cost and implementation times.

Plus, off-the-shelf solutions aren’t perfect. They’ll do some of the things you ask of them. But they’ve been designed to offer the most common functions in the industry sector. They’ll never fit perfectly.

Sometimes, the easier solution is just to build one. That task isn’t as daunting as you might think. You can either start with an existing package, or ask the seller to customize it. But extremely large businesses, or those with special requirements, can opt to make one from scratch.

Regardless of which course of action you choose, there are some important Dos and Don’ts.

• Don’t leave an MIS purely in the hands of IT. It’s designed to be used by managers, and managers should be involved in defining what information they need to make the right decisions.

• Don’t buy or create an MIS purely for the joy of having one. They must offer the right people the right information at the right time. Otherwise, they’re just an expensive hobby.

• Don’t start buying or designing without getting a list of requirements. In IT jargon, the step is known as a formal ‘requirements analysis’.

• Don’t start with an MIS unless you’ve decided it will help solve a problem. The problem might need another solution altogether.

• Do ask for layman input. While coding and implementation is an engineering and IT task, remember that it’s the line managers and above who will be using the system’s output.

• Do make sure the MIS is compatible with everything else in the firm. There are other systems, such as Decision Support Systems, Knowledge Management Systems and Executive Support Systems that need an MIS to work.

• And finally, do make sure that the MIS can be changed or upgraded as needed. In business, time is money and requirements are always changing. © Zawya

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MARKETS UPDATE

Gulf equities outliers among emerging marketsThe highly-anticipated U.S. jobs continued to show that the world’s largest economy continues to gain momentum. Data showed the U.S. added an estimated 192,000 jobs in March, following an upwardly revised 197,000 in February.

Evidence of a post-polar-vortex rebound in the labour market was provided by a strong bounce back in average hours worked, which had fallen to a three-year low in February.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7% as strong labour force growth outpaced the increase in household survey employment.

For investors, this was a goldilocks job report, signalling that the job recovery is still very much in tact, but not in a way that will bring forward the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hand in raising interest rates.

Eight out 18 Wall Street economies believe the Feds will increase interest rates by end of mid-2015, according to a Reuters survey.

The S&P 500 has been clocking new highs this year to reach 1,890.90, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average has not seen the same momentum and remains negative for the year.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank continues to hold off on monetary easing despite lower inflation of 0.5% year-on-year, markedly below the latest consumer price

index readings in the U.S. and Japan.

In addition, the recovery in real GDP has been notably weaker in the euro area than in the U.S. or Japan. Yet the Fed and the Bank of Japan are still pursuing asset purchase programs in an effort to push inflation rates higher, while the ECB once again decided against taking any easing measures at a meeting in the first week of April.

In Japan, analysts are waiting for Bank of Japan’s assessment of the economy later in April and expect the Japanese growth story to remain intact.

Emerging markets also seem to be attracting some attention from investors, after they had dumped USD50-billion worth of developing-economy stocks in the first quarter of the year.

Data from fund tracker EPFR shows emerging market stocks and bonds saw a return of capital flows, especially in the key markets of China, India, Russia and Brazil. The markets saw a USD2.5-billion increase in equities and another US1 billion in bonds.

In China, a PMI survey from one of the national banks showed an increase for the first time in five months in March, but analysts expect the authorities to not let up on stimulating the economy.

Gulf markets continue to be outliers among emerging economies. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index is trading at more than five-year high and is up 12% on better economic prospects and corporate growth. In Dubai, the index is up 37%, as a new string of projects, announcements and favourable news on the emirate’s debt programme continues to encourage investors.

A little under half of regional investment managers surveyed by Reuters expect to raise their equity allocations to the Middle East over the next three months, while only 13% were planning to cut their exposure to regional markets.

Oil

Brent crude prices remain steady at USD106 per barrel, as the market expect to see lower

production from some OPEC countries.

Currency

The dollar index reached a five-week high against major currencies, before retreating after the U.S. jobs report was released. The euro was trading at $1.3695 against, while the dollar also inched up against the 104.12 yen.

Gold

Gold’s status as a safe-haven continues to diminish. The yellow metal has not been able to push through USD1,300 per ounce. Continued rise in global equity market may cap gold’s gains in the immediate term. The metal was trading at USD1,284 per ounce, a 6.6% increase from the start of the year. © Zawya

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Saudi real estate sector gains momentumDespite challenges, the Saudi real estate sector has been on an upward swing as it gears up for the monumental task of building more than a 100,000 housing units every year.

Total housing stock is expected to expand by 2.2 million units during the next 8 years, with annual demand rising from 186,000 units in 2011 to 265,000 units by 2020. However, only some 121,000 units had been built each year over the past decade, leaving a significant shortfall.

The Ministry of Housing has been at the forefront of developments, pushing through a number of reforms, including the development of new housing units, purchase of new land and initiating the Ejaar programme, which aims to provide financing for affordable housing units.

A full approval of the mortgage law is still pending, and analysts expect the government will likely push it through this year to ensure that the development pace does not slacken.

“Another intriguing development, with potentially far-reaching implications, is the fact that the law allows, at least in theory, for the “securitisation” of mortgages: institutions will be allowed to buy mortgages from the banks, and then bundle them together and sell them on,” said the Economist Intelligence Unit.

There is no secondary market for mortgage

trading, and the creation of such “bundled mortgages” raise obvious concerns in light of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the EIU noted.

Real estate has emerged as the best performing sector on the Tadawul Exchange in anticipation, rising more than 30% year-to-date. Last year saw projects worth SAR 40 billion awarded.

Pure residential contracts garnered SAR 20.8 billion last year. Ministry of Housing led the spree, awarding 57% of all contracts. Emaar Properties led the private sector, accounting for 29% of all contracts awarded in the residential sector.

Mixed-used real estate saw contracts worth SAR 19.2 billion in the year, with the Ministry of Finance leading the way with 68% of contracts awarded. Azmeel Contracting & Construction Company, Drake & Scull and Saudi Bin Laden were the leading beneficiaries of the contracts.

Saudi authorities have also announced plans to create a real estate index, providing detailed data on real estate sector and construction projects and prices.

The frenzied development has not had a major impact on residential sales prices to date. In Jeddah, villa prices have risen 1%-2% quarter-on-quarter, although apartment prices fell 2%-3% during the same period.

Riyadh too, saw a similar dip in apartment prices, although villa prices edged up slightly. Jones Lang La Salle expects an additional 106,000 units to enter the Riyadh market by the end of 2016, representing an annual supply of around 35,000 units.

Saudi Arabia’s 2014 budget will see the kingdom curb its spending over the next few years, as crude oil production and prices flatten over the next year. The budget estimates a 4% rise in spending compared to 2013, the lowest projected increase since 2003.

But that’s unlikely to impact the sorely-needed push to build more housing units in the country. © Zawya

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SAUDI MIXED REAL ESTATE

SAUDI RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATEShare of Value of Awarded Contracts (2103)

Source: Ministry of Housing

Source: Ministry of Finance

Share of Value of Awarded Contracts (2103)

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Dollar Faces Resistance — But For How Long?

The U.S. dollar has faced strong resistance from other major currencies in the last few weeks as global economic sentiment improves.

In Japan, the yen strengthened against the dollar after the Bank of Japan indicated it is not planning more monetary stimulus in the immediate future. The dollar traded at about 102.98 yen — a 10-day low.

The European Central Bank is also keeping its powder dry and not giving in to the temptation of more monetary easing just yet, which has pushed the euro higher against both the dollar (USD1.3742) and yen (141.72 yen).

U.S. equity markets have also cooled down this year, while economic data from the world’s largest economy has been stable but not robust, giving little reason for the dollar to shoot up against other currencies.

The dollar is also facing resistance from commodity-driven Canadian and Australian currencies, both of which are looking to move higher against the U.S. greenback after being beaten down earlier in the year.

Global currencies’ gains against the dollar are primarily due to rise in global sentiment.

The International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast shows global growth could reach 3.6% this year and 3.9% in 2015 – the strongest growth in four years.

“The recovery which was starting to take hold in October is becoming not only stronger, but also broader,” said IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard. “Although we are far short of a full recovery, the normalization of monetary policy—both conventional and unconventional—is now on the agenda.”

Still, investors can’t expect smooth sailing all the way, as emerging markets continue to show weakness.

Chinese data remains tepid, while India is in

the midst of an election cycle and it may be a while before we can get clarity on how the South Asian country plans to pursue structural reforms.

In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy changes could trigger renewed bouts of market volatility in emerging markets, the IMF warned.

“The result could likely lead to financial turmoil and difficult adjustments in some emerging markets, with a risk of contagion.”

The Institute of International Finance notes that while Chinese growth has been weak in the first quarter, additional policy stimulus will boost growth during the year to meet the government’s annual target.

In addition to some monetary easing, the Chinese government has also announced measures to increase public spending on railways and public housing, which should spur growth.

The dollar’s weakness against other currencies may not last too long. Analysts are forming the view that the U.S. may increase interest rates as early as mid 2015, while other major regions such as the Eurozone and Japan cannot even contemplate such a move at the moment.

The European Central Bank would certainly move quickly if the single-currency comes close to USD1.40 per dollar.

Analysts also believe ECB president Mario

Draghi is not done with conventional policy and the ECB board is unanimously open to unconventional policies.

Meanwhile, BoJ has momentarily paused — not ended — its monetary stimulus. The central bank is going to review the impact of a new consumption tax which came in force on April 1. Unfavorable economic indicators after the tax hike could cause additional monetary easing to be moved up to May or June.© Zawya

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NEWS UPDATES

Plans for 25m visitors for World Expo 2020The emirate of Dubai will be fully prepared to receive 25 million visitors when it hosts the World Expo 2020 international event in six years’ time.

Officials are already seeing to every detail imaginable to pave the way for the smoothest possible international hosting of an event that is expected to further clinch Dubai and the UAE as world-class destinations. - Gulf News

Read full article

Dubai World hires Blackstone to look at debt optionsConglomerate Dubai World has hired New York-based investment and advisory firm Blackstone Group LP to take a fresh look at its debt and how to make repayments to creditors, sources aware of the matter told Reuters.

“This is only for advisory purposes and to streamline the available options for the debt maturing in 2018,” a Dubai government source said, speaking on condition of anonymity under briefing rules. - Reuters

Read full article

New UAE airline Rotana Jet spreads its wings, keeps an eye on Expo 2020Dr Shaikh Ahmad Bin Saif Al Nahayan, Chairman of Rotana Jet, said the company is planning to establish new routes by 2016 to Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, India and Pakistan. He Shaikh said that the company will soon break even and start to make profits, following recent addition of two aircraft, Airbus A319 and Embraer EMB 145 to its fleet. - Gulf News

Read full article

Egypt approves draft law barring challenges to contractEgypt’s cabinet approved a draft investment law on Thursday that prevents third parties from challenging contracts made between the government and an investor, two government officials said, a move that could boost the struggling economy. - Reuters

Read full article

FDI in UAE reaches USD12bn in 2013Fortress Investments, a major investment firm operating in the Middle East, says FDI investment in the UAE reached $12 billion in 2013 and is projected to grow 20 percent in 2014 to reach $14.4 billion.

The estimated growth rate in 2014 would represent a 260 percent increase over 2008, which not only demonstrates full recovery from the global financial crisis, but reflects huge future growth potential for the UAE economy that would offer greater investment opportunities, according to the investment firm. - Zawya

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Middle East funds ready to buy equities on dips-surveyMiddle East fund managers are willing to buy most of the region’s main equity markets on dips, believing corporate earnings and balance sheets will continue improving this year, a monthly Reuters survey shows.

Markets retreated early this month as retail investors rushed to take profits during the worst of the geopolitical uncertainty over Ukraine. - Reuters

Read full article

Dubai bourse to hold roadshow in LondonBourse operator Dubai Financial Market (DFM) will hold a roadshow for international investors in London together with Goldman Sachs to showcase companies listed in the emirate, it said.

Executives from 13 companies listed on the DFM and NASDAQ Dubai will meet investors on April 28-29, it said.

United Arab Emirates bourses are expected to attract more foreign money from May, when international equity index compiler MSCI is due to upgrade the UAE to emerging from frontier market status. - Reuters

Read full article

Dubai SME to map angel investors in UAE to facilitate SME financingDubai SME is in the process of mapping the universe of angel investors in the UAE to help connect these investors with viable startups that show long term growth potential, said a press statement.

It aims to promote equity financing and angel investing as a complementary and alternative mode of funding for start-ups and SMEs in various stages of growth in the UAE, according to Alexandar Williams, Director of Strategy and Policy, Dubai SME who was speaking about alternatives for SME financing in the second day of SME World Summit 2014”. - Emirates 24 | 7

Read full article

Dubai allocates 5% of annual budget to empower young entrepreneursFive percent of Dubai Government’s annual budget is allocated to developing young entrepreneurs, according to Fareed Karmostaji, Director of Finance at Mohammed bin Rashid Establishment for SME Development (Dubai SME).

Speaking at the 14th Jeddah Economic Forum, Karmostaji said licensing fees for new startups would be waived for the first three years with the required financing being made available in one month. “Mohammed bin Rashid Establishment for SME Development has set a curriculum for thought leadership among schools students in addition to launching several initiatives such as ‘the young entrepreneur’ which aims at teaching business leadership principles to the youth by providing them with small projects at shopping malls. - Zawya

Read full article

UAE to spend more than $300 billion on infrastructure development by 2030The UAE is expected to spend over $300 billion by 2030 on infrastructure development as the construction sector bounces back after the economic downturn in 2008, according to a report by HVS, a hospitality consultancy.

The UAE’s construction sector gained momentum in 2013, the Middle East Hotel Development Cost Trends report stated. - Gulf News

Read full article. © Zawya

NEWS UPDATES

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risk, liquidity risk and credit risk. Emirates NBD may use different models, make valuation adjustments, or use different methodologies when determining prices at which Emirates NBD is willing to trade financial instruments and/or when valuing its own inventory positions for its books and records. In receiving the publication, you acknowledge and agree that there are risks associated with investment activities. Moreover, you acknowledge in receiving the publication that the responsibility to obtain and carefully read and understand the content of documents relating to any investment activity described in the publication and to seek separate, independent financial advice if required to assess whether a particular investment activity described herein is suitable, lies exclusively with you. You acknowledge and agree that past investment performance is not indicative of the future performance results of any investment and that the information contained herein is not to be used as an indication for the future performance of any investment activity. You acknowledge that the publication

has been developed, compiled, prepared, revised, selected, and arranged by Emirates NBD and others (including certain other information sources) through the application of methods and standards of judgment developed and applied through the expenditure of substantial time, effort, and money and constitutes valuable intellectual property of Emirates NBD and such others. All present and future rights in and to trade secrets, patents, copyrights, trademarks, service marks, know-how, and other proprietary rights of any type under the laws of any governmental authority, domestic or foreign, shall, as between you and Emirates NBD, at all times be and remain the sole and exclusive property of Emirates NBD and/or other lawful parties. Except as specifically permitted in writing, you acknowledge and agree that you may not copy or make any use of the content of the publication or any portion thereof. Except as specifically permitted in writing, you shall not use the intellectual property rights connected with the publication, or the names of any individual participant in, or contributor to, the content of the publication, or any variations or

derivatives thereof, for any purpose.

YOU AGREE TO USE THE PUBLICATION SOLELY FOR YOUR OWN NONCOMMERCIAL USE AND BENEFIT, AND NOT FOR RESALE OR OTHER TRANSFER OR DISPOSITION TO, OR USE BY OR FOR THE BENEFIT OF, ANY OTHER PERSON OR ENTITY. YOU AGREE NOT TO USE, TRANSFER, DISTRIBUTE, OR DISPOSE OF ANY DATA/INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION IN ANY MANNER THAT COULD COMPETE WITH THE BUSINESS INTERESTS OF EMIRATES NBD. YOU MAY NOT COPY, REPRODUCE, PUBLISH, DISPLAY, MODIFY, OR CREATE DERIVATIVE WORKS FROM ANY DATA/INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION. YOU MAY NOT OFFER ANY PART OF THE PUBLICATION FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTE IT OVER ANY MEDIUM WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF EMIRATES NBD. THE DATA/INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION MAY NOT BE USED TO CONSTRUCT A DATABASE OF ANY KIND. YOU MAY NOT USE THE DATA/INFORMATION IN THE PUBLICATION IN ANY WAY TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF ANY DATA SOLD OR CONTRIBUTED TO BY YOU TO ANY

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and against any and all claims, damages, liabilities, costs, and expenses, including reasonable attorneys’ and experts’ fees, arising out of or in connection with the publication, including, but not limited to: (i) your use of the data contained in the publication or someone using such data on your behalf; (ii) any deletions, additions, insertions or alterations to, or any unauthorized use of, the data contained in the publication or (iii) any misrepresentation or breach of an acknowledgement or agreement made as a result of your receiving the publication.

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