april 2008 note: this project should be regarded as confidential as it contains data, information...
TRANSCRIPT
April 2008
Note: This project should be regarded as confidential as it contains Data, Information and Intellectual Property of Fernridge Consulting - Copyright (Limited Distribution)Copyright 2008: Fernridge Consulting.
Orientation
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Copyright 2008: Fernridge Consulting
The SiteThe Site
Roads connecting Northern suburbs/villagesRoads connecting Northern suburbs/villages
The Site
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Copyright 2008: Fernridge Consulting
The SiteThe Site
Road connecting Western suburbs/villagesRoad connecting Western suburbs/villages
HAMMANSKRAAL CBDHAMMANSKRAAL CBD
Retail Potential Estimate – 2008
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• The demographics within the catchment warrant ±150,000m² GLA.
• The table above indicates the different market shares to be achieved to warrant the respective centre sizes.
Copyright 2008: Fernridge Consulting
Total Exp / month Total Exp / yearAve Trading Density
(Rand / m² selling per year) Area Potential GLA
R 48,077,182 R 576,926,186 R 30,000 24,039
R 27,424,340 R 329,092,080 R 18,000 22,854
R 11,128,764 R 133,545,166 R 24,000 6,955
R 12,722,657 R 152,671,881 R 20,000 9,542
R 16,199,651 R 194,395,814 R 11,000 22,090
R 7,978,957 R 95,747,482 R 7,500 15,958
R 7,667,088 R 92,005,055 R 13,000 8,847
R 6,842,377 R 82,108,520 R 23,000 4,462
R 12,764,844 R 153,178,129 R 12,000 15,956
R 2,481,691 R 29,780,288 R 5,500 6,768
Total Potential R 153,287,550 R 1,839,450,603 R 16,400
Area warranted GLA 137,471Add 10% for non-retail (banks etc.) 13,747
TOTAL 151,219
Centre Size (GLA) Market Share
30,244 20%37,805 25%55,000 36%
Food & Groceries
CFTA
Main Category
Speciality
Home
Furniture & Appliances
Services
Outdoor
Wine & Dine
Hardware / DIY
Entertainment
GLA warranted by catchment (m²)
Retail Potential Estimate – 2011
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• The projected demographic growth from 2008 to 2011, warrant an additional ±5,000m². With current retail offer, this results in an undersupply of ±105,000m²
• Thus, we believe that a shopping centre of ±40,000m² can be feasible with a 25% market share.
Copyright 2008: Fernridge Consulting
Total Potential – 2011 156,527
Total Offer – 49,615Hammanskraal CBD 31,115
Temba City 18,500
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Undersupply 106,912
Total Exp / month Total Exp / yearAve Trading Density
(Rand / m² selling per year) Area Potential GLA
R 49,764,955 R 597,179,466 R 30,000 24,882
R 28,387,085 R 340,645,021 R 18,000 23,656
R 11,519,445 R 138,233,335 R 24,000 7,200
R 13,169,292 R 158,031,503 R 20,000 9,877
R 16,768,348 R 201,220,175 R 11,000 22,866
R 8,259,062 R 99,108,745 R 7,500 16,518
R 7,936,245 R 95,234,938 R 13,000 9,157
R 7,082,582 R 84,990,980 R 23,000 4,619
R 13,212,960 R 158,555,523 R 12,000 16,516
R 2,568,812 R 30,825,740 R 5,500 7,006
Total Potential R 158,668,786 R 1,904,025,426 R 16,400
Area warranted GLA 142,297Add 10% for non-retail (banks etc.) 14,230
TOTAL 156,527
Centre Size (GLA) Market Share
31,305 20%39,132 25%55,000 35%
GLA warranted by catchment (m²)
Speciality
Home
Furniture & Appliances
Services
Outdoor
Wine & Dine
Hardware / DIY
Entertainment
Food & Groceries
CFTA
Main Category
Executive Summary
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Copyright 2008: Fernridge Consulting
• The Hammanskraal node offers an alternative shopping destination to Pretoria CBD for households from the surrounding area. It also experiences inflow from villages further to the North where retail offer is limited.
• The catchment experiences a relative low growth rate due to the big base (2001). This growth still amounts to ±950 new HSE per annum and at the same time the area is becoming more formalised. An undersupply of retail currently exist in the catchment. This undersupply, together with the proximity to Pretoria results in a high outflow of expenditure.
• Six national food retailers (anchors) exist in the catchment. However, we believe that a sufficient offer at the site, together with the proximity to Hammanskraal retail node, will ensure a good market share.
• The river currently acts as a development boundary to the West. Until now, all retail development occurred in a North-South direction.
• The development of a taxi rank at the site will be vital in the success of a retail development seeing as the majority of households in the catchment make use of public transport.
• The development of this site can potentially decentralise the retail congestion at the Hammanskraal node. This increase the importance of a good and competitive offer.
• The proposed centre of 55,000m² will need to achieve a ±35% market share in order to be feasible. This is a high market share and will be hard to achieve (especially given the ± 50,000m² of existing formal retail in the area).
• However, this remains a very good development opportunity for a retail centre and a centre of ±40,000m² will be warranted by 201 at a market share of ±25%.
Copyright 2008: Fernridge Consulting
Fernridge Consulting (Pty) Ltd26th Floor209 Smit Street P.O. Box 31266Braamfontein BraamfonteinJohannesburg 2017South Africa South Africa
Fax: +27 11 339 1833
www.fernridge.co.za
CV & Contact Details
Sybrand StraussDirector: Property Development & International
Tel: +27 11 712 1720Mobile: +27 82 330 5168e-mail: [email protected]
Andre AnnandaleManager: Property Development
Tel: +27 11 712 1714Mobile: +27 82 776 6353e-mail: [email protected]
Fernridge Consulting (Pty) Ltd is a retail optimization consultancy that was founded in 2002. We are based in Johannesburg, South Africa and specialize in spatial retail analysis using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technology, the latest demographic data and information from significant retailers. We are part of the UCS Group, a publicly listed IT company.
We are the undisputed leader in this field in South Africa with ± 12 shopping centre development / revamp studies per month conducted in all nine South African provinces, as well as neighboring countries (such as Namibia, Botswana, Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique), other African countries (Zambia, Ghana), and abroad (India, Mauritius). We offer this service to banks, landlords, property managers, corporate and private investors and developers.
We also assist some of the leading retail groups in South Africa in their store expansion and rationalization strategies, location analyses etc. Our clients include, among others: Spar, Woolworths, McDonald’s, Nando’s, Mr. Price, Supergroup, Massmart, Cashbuild, Ster Kinekor, Virgin Active, Clicks, MTN etc.
This is an objective, independent report with the sole aim of limiting risk for our client and optimize development potential.
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