april 19, 2004 international energy outlook 2004 guy caruso administrator energy information...

April 19, 2004

International Energy Outlook 2004

Guy Caruso

Administrator

Energy Information Administration

Thirty-First Annual International Energy Conference

Boulder, Colorado

International Energy Outlook 2004 indicates that over the next 24 years …

• Energy use will grow strongly, especially among the developing countries (2.7% per year in the developing world)

• There will be continued reliance on fossil fuels through 2025; oil remains the dominant fuel type (39 % of total world energy use)

• Natural gas is the fastest growing source of primary energy (2.2% per year)

• Coal will continue to be the predominant source for electricity generation, but natural gas will be an important supply source for power generation in many parts of the world, given its efficiency and environmental benefits.

• Carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels will continue to grow (1.9% per year)

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250

20

40

60

80

Tri

llion

199

7 U

.S. D

oll a

rs

History Projections

Reference Case

Low Economic Growth Case

High Economic Growth Case

World Gross Domestic Product in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1970-2025


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250

200

400

600

800

Qua

drill

i on

Btu

History Projections

Reference Case

Low Economic Growth Case

High Economic Growth Case

World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1970-2025

710

623

542


156.5

93.1

95.9

26.4

32.2

403.9

245.3

156.5

140.2

30.4

50.4

622.9

240.7

181.8

139.0

28.6

50.0

640.1

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

Total

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0

Quadrillion Btu

2001

IEO2004

IEO2003

Forecast Comparisons in 2025: IEO2004 vs. IEO2003


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250

50

100

150

200

250

300

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

Industrialized

Developing

EE/FSU

History Projections

45%

43%

12%

Share ofWorldTotal

World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Tho

usan

d B

tu p

er 1

997

U.S

. Dol

l ar

o f G

DP

Industrialized

Developing

History Projections

EE/FSU

Energy Intensity by Region, 1970-2025



1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20250

50

100

150

200

250

Qua

drill

i on

Btu

Oil

Renewables

Nuclear

History Projections

Coal

Natural Gas

39%

25%23%

8%

5%

World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2025

Share of WorldTotal


77.1

91.5

120.8

77.0

91.1

120.6

2001 2010 2025 2001 2010 20250.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

pe r

Day

Industrialized

Developing Asia

Other

Consumption Production

OPEC

EE/FSUOther

World Oil Consumption and Production, 2001, 2010, and 2025


10.2

3.7

2.8

2.7

2.4

0.6

22.5

4.9

6.6

5.2

5.0

0.8

Saudi Arabia

Iran

Iraq

United ArabEmirates

Kuwait

Qatar

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Million Barrels per Day

2001

2025

Persian Gulf Oil Productive Capacity by Country, 2001 and 2025

Saudi ArabiaCanada

IranIraq

UAEKuwait

VenezuelaRussia

LibyaNigeria

United StatesChina

MexicoQatar

AlgeriaNorway

KazakhstanBrazil

AzerbaijanOman

Rest of World

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Billion Barrels

World Total:1,266 Billion Barrels

World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2004

Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production."Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49 (December 22, 2003), pp. 46-47.

World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1970-2025


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001 2010 2015 2020 20250

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002

U.S

. Dol

lars

per

Bar

rel

Low Oil Price Case

Reference Case

High Oil Price Case

History Projections


1.4

2.8

4.65.0

5.2

2.6

4.04.3

4.13.7

5.7

7.0

8.0

2001 2010 2015 2020 20250.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

pe r

Day

Reference Low Oil Price Case High Oil Price Case

Nonconventional Oil Production in Three Price Cases, 2001-2025

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 and International Energy Outlook 2003

90

105114

134

154 151

176

IEO2004IEO2003 IEO2004IEO2003 IEO2004IEO20030

50

100

150

200

Tri

llion

Cub

ic F

e et

Industrialized EE/FSU Developing

2010 2020 20252001

Natural Gas Consumption by Region,IEO2004 vs. IEO2003

Source: "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production," Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 100, No. 49, December 22, 2003, pp. 46-47

Middle East

EE/FSU

Africa

Developing Asia

North America

Central & South America

Western Europe

Industrialized Asia

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Trillion Cubic Feet

World Total:6,076 Trillion Cubic Feet

World Natural Gas Reserves by Region, as of January 1, 2004


Industrialized Countries EE/FSU China and India Other DevelopingCountries

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Bill

ion

Sho

rt T

ons

1980

2001

2025

World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980, 2001, and 2025

Source: EIA, International Energy Annual 2001

United States

FSU

China

Australia

India

Germany

South Africa

Yugoslavia

Poland

Rest of World

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Billion Short Tons

Subbituminous and Lignite

Bituminous and Anthracite

World Total:1,083 Billion Short Tons

World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2001


2001 2010 2015 2020 20250

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Bill

ion

Kil o

wat

thou

rs

Industrialized EE/FSU Developing

History Projections

World Net Electricity Consumption by Region, 2001-2025

2001

2010

2015

2020

2025

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percent of Total

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

History

Projections

Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, 2001-2025


Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004 and International Energy Outlook 2003

353

392407 401

385382 393 383366

2001 2010 2015 2020 20250

100

200

300

400

500

Bill

ion

Met

ric

Tons

Car

bon

Di o

xide

IEO2004 IEO2003

Installed Nuclear Capacity, IEO2004 vs. IEO2003


10 1213

15 16

53 3 4 4

69

11

1517

2224

28

34

37

1990 2001 2010 2020 20250

10

20

30

40

50

Bill

ion

Met

ric

Tons

Car

bon

Di o

xide

Industrialized EE/FSU Developing Total

History Projections

World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990-2025


2224

2830

34

37

1990 2001 2010 2015 2020 20250

10

20

30

40

50

Bill

ion

Met

r ic

T on s

Oil Natural Gas Coal

World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type, 1970-2025


RussiaOther FSU

ChinaMiddle East

Eastern EuropeIndia

AfricaSouth Korea

MexicoCanada

Australia/New ZealandCentral and South America

United StatesNetherlands

United KingdomGermany

Italy Japan

France

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide per Million 1997 U.S. Dollars of GDP

2001

2025

Carbon Dioxide Intensity for Selected Countries and Regions, 2001 and 2025

International Energy Outlook 2004 indicates that over the next 24 years …

• Energy use will grow fastest in the developing world• Oil remains the dominant fuel type• Natural gas will be the fastest-growing primary

energy source• Resources will be sufficient to meet demand through

2025• Carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow• Electricity will increase rapidly in the developing

world• Coal will remain the predominant fuel for electric

power generation, but gas’ importance will grow• Developing Asia will expand its use of nuclear power

april 19, 2004 international energy outlook 2004 guy caruso administrator energy information...

Documents

international energy

energy intensity

shares of energy use

years energy use

ieo2003 source

predominant source

world oil reserves

important supply source