apresentação - antônio prado en final
TRANSCRIPT
ANTONIO PRADO DEPUTY EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
Seminario Internacional Papel do Estado
no Século XXI: Desafíos para a Gestão Pública
Brasilia, 4 September 2015
A new State-market-society
equation for development
in Latin America
and the Caribbean
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
“A new State architecture must be created that will allow the
State to play its rightful role as leader of our countries'
development strategies. By casting a critical eye on its
historical performance, we should be able to define that role,
give the State the proper tools and determine its precise place
in conjunction with the market and the citizens, achieving an
optimum balance of this trilogy in the development dynamic.”
ECLAC (2010) Time for Equality
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Contents • A crossroads and the complex international
context
• The features of the current
State – market –society (citizenry) equation
• Compacts for equality as a tool for building a new equation
• The new State – market –society (citizenry) equation
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
The region is at a crossroads • The region is facing an economic slowdown after
several boom years
• Not enough was done to increase productivity and reduce equality
• Progress was achieved on the social front, but has come to a standstill and the region still has the world’s worst income distribution and other inequalities
• There are environmental sustainability challenges as regards moving towards low-carbon development paths
• Stable democracies, but new challenges
• Facing variable geometry routes towards integration
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
The region is facing critical restraints External
• Slowing international trade
• End of commodity price supercycle
• Financial volatility • Great vulnerability to
climatic phenomena • Middle-income trap
Endogenous
• Disjointed production structure • Informal, low-productivity employment • Little dynamic efficiency • Economic growth slowing and reliant
on consumption • Investment rates are too low • Stalled poverty reduction • Weak natural resources and
environmental governance • Shortage of good-quality public goods • Weak institutions
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
A more complex context
• The global economy has grown less than expected. Within a year, growth projections for 2015 have been lowered from 3.2% to 2.8%.
• Upturn in growth in the United States (above the initial estimate of 2.8% in 2015) with a positive impact in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean through remittances, tourism and trade.
• Fiscal disequilibria and lack of competitiveness in the eurozone, with high levels of unemployment and growth of just 1.6% in 2015, are undermining global trade.
• Slowdown in China from 9.2% in 2011, to 7.0% in 2015 with an impact on natural-resources-exporting countries.
• Uncertainty over the timing of interest rate rise in the United States and QE in Europe, which could generate more volatile financial conditions.
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Latin America and the Caribbean have seen growth slow since 2010
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures.
6,1
7,7
6,0
2,5
2,9
2,3
3,7
2,5
0,5
0,9
0,50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ᵃ
Latin America and the Caribbean: year-on-year GDP growth, 2010-2015a
(Percentages, on the basis of constant dollars at 2010 prices)
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Poverty rates have fallen thanks to policies implemented over the past 10 years, but have stood still
since 2012 Latin America and other world regions:
Gini coefficient, around 2010
0,50
0,45 0,41
0,37 0,34 0,33 0,34
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
América Latina y el Caribe
(18)
Asia Oriental y el Pacífico
(10)
Asia Meridional (8)
OCDE (22)
Latin America a/: poverty and indigence, 1990 – 2014 b/
(Percentages of the population)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of data from household surveys conducted in the respective countries. a/ Estimate for 19 countries (including Haiti). b/ Figures for 2014 are projections.
48,4
43,8 43,9 41,9
33,5 29,6 28,1 28,1 28,0
22,6
18,6 19,3
15,3 12,9 11,6 11,3 11,7 12,0
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pobres Indigentes
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
The crossroads calls for the redefinition of the State-market-society (citizens) equation
The past two decades have left lessons for the region in relation to the equation between State, market and society:
• The market is good at production, but bad at distribution. Unregulated, it reproduces structures revolving around activities that are knowledge-unintensive and environmentally inefficient.
• The State can do much, but not everything.
• Society (citizens) demands transparency, voice, participation and democracy.
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
The market in the current State-market-society (citizens) equation
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
The undeniable role of the private sector as the central agent in the market
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic Survey 2015. a Public investment includes State enterprises. For Colombia, State enterprises form part of the decentralized sector, which includes public establishments, industrial and commercial enterprises, mixed public-private firms, and autonomous universities.
Latin America (12 countries): proportion of gross fixed capital formation corresponding to public a and private investment, 2013
(Percentages, on the basis of local currency at constant prices)
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Investment in R&D in the region is lower than in Europe
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Espacios de diálogo y cooperación productiva: el rol de las pymes, 2015.
Latin America European Union
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
0
12500
25000
37500
50000
62500
75000 1
99
1
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
The region’s productivity levels are very low
Latin America and the Caribbean and other regions: GDP per employed person, by region, 1991-2012 (Dollars at constant 2005 prices)
Developed economies and European Union
World
Latin America and the Caribbean
South-East Asia and the Pacific
East Asia
Source: ECLAC, on the basis of data from the International Labour Organization (ILO).
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Latin America (18 countries): GDP per employed person, around 2009
(Thousands of dollars)
Source: ECLAC, Structural Change for Equality: An Integrated Approach to Development, 2012.
Latin America (18 countries): indicators of structural heterogeneity, around 2009 (Percentages)
Structural heterogeneity: the factory of inequality
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Income distribution before taxes and transfers
Latin America and OECD countries: Gini index
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Panorama Fiscal de América Latina y el Caribe, 2015.
50,7
47,1
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0
AL-16
Brasil Republica Dominicana
Honduras Chile
Panamá Argentina Colombia
Costa Rica Paraguay
México Perú
Ecuador Nicaragua
Uruguay El Salvador
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. de)
OCDE-25
Irlanda Portugal
Reino Unido Grecia
Estados Unidos Italia
Alemania Francia Austria España
Luxemburgo Bélgica Estonia
Finlandia Polonia
Australia Eslovenia
República Checa Canadá Suecia
República Eslovaca Países Bajos
Noruega Dinamarca
Islandia
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
The State in the current State-market-
society (citizens) equation
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
The State has a key role in correcting the market’s unequal outcomes ex post
Latin America and OECD countries: Gini index before and after taxes and transfers
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2015. Policy space and dilemmas.
50,7
47,1
-6,1
-37,6
-60,0 -40,0 -20,0 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0
AL-16
Brasil Republica Dominicana
Honduras Chile
Panamá Argentina Colombia
Costa Rica Paraguay
México Perú
Ecuador Nicaragua
Uruguay El Salvador
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. de)
OCDE-25
Irlanda Portugal
Reino Unido Grecia
Estados Unidos Italia
Alemania Francia Austria España
Luxemburgo Bélgica Estonia
Finlandia Polonia
Australia Eslovenia
República Checa Canadá Suecia
República Eslovaca Países Bajos
Noruega Dinamarca
Islandia
Variación porcentual Después de impuestos y transferencias Antes de impuestos y transferencias
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Tax collection is low and poorly implemented in the region
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2015. Policy space and dilemmas. a Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Selected regions and countries: structure of the tax burden, 2012-2013
(Percentages of GDP)
Low tax burden in most countries
Regressive tax structure
High rates of evasion
Widespread exemptions
Special treatment for capital
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Several countries have made changes to income tax, mainly to tax capital income
Argentina (2013)
Chile (2014)
Colombia (2012, 2014)
Ecuador (2007, 2014)
El Salvador (2009, 2011)
Guatemala (2012)
Honduras (2010, 2014)
Mexico (2013)
Nicaragua (2012)
Panama (2009-2012)
Paraguay (2012)
Peru (2007, 2012, 2014)
Dominican Republic (2012)
Uruguay (2007, 2012-2013)
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) (2014)
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Fiscal Panorama of Latin America and the Caribbean 2015. Policy space and dilemmas.
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Tax revenues have risen from 16 to 21 GDP points, on average, since 2000, but they are still highly uneven
Tax revenues in Latin America, 2000 and 2013 (Percentages of GDP)
36
31
28 27
22 20 20 19 19 19 19 18 18
16 16 14 14 13
21
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Bra
sil
Arg
enti
na
Bo
livia
Uru
guay
Co
sta
Ric
a
Ch
ile
Co
lom
bia
Ecu
ado
r
Nic
arag
ua
Méx
ico
Pan
amá
Perú
Ho
nd
ura
s
Para
guay
El S
alva
do
r
Ven
ezu
ela
Rep
. D
om
inic
ana
Gu
atem
ala
AL-
18
OC
DE-
34
2013 2000
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Prevent tax evasion and avoidance and control illicit flows
• Illicit financial flows represent a massive outflow of financial resources from developing economies
• On average, in 2002-2011 illicit financial flows represented twice as much as remittances and 14 times ODA in Latin America and the Caribbean
113,1
84,9
63,7
50,8
7,8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Flujos Ilícitos Inversión extranjera
directa
Flujos financieros
privados
Remesas ODA
Illicit flows from Latin America and the Caribbean, average for 2002-2011 period (Billions of dollars)
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
There are serious cracks and gaps in the region’s social
protection systems
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of special tabulations of household surveys conducted by the respective countries.
Latin America (14 countries): population living in households with no social security and receiving no pensions or welfare public transfers, by income quintile, 2009
(Percentages)
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Investment is too weak to drive development
In infrastructure
In research, science and innovation
In development banking: inclusive financing
In environmentally cleaner production matrices
Gross fixed capital formation, 1950-2010 (Percentages of GDP on the basis of dollars at constant 2005 prices)
23,1
18,0 18,5 17,9
20,1
22.9
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
América Latina Asia Oriental y el Pacífico
Source: Economic Commision for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures, and World Development Indicators.
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Persistent shortage of economic infrastructure Electric power generation capacity, 1980-2012
(Megawatts per 1,000 inhabitants)
Source: Economic Commision for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic Survey 2015.
Density of total road network, 2007 and 2012
(Kilometres per 100 km2)
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Source: World Bank, http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports
The region has a moderate quality of regulation
World: regulatory quality index, 2013
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Source: World Bank. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports
The region has little confidence in justice and compliance with laws and regulations
World: rule of law index, 2013
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Source: World Bank. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports
The region has little control of corruption
World: control of corruption index, 2013
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Citizens in the current State-market-society (citizens) equation
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Society (citizens) in the current equation • Demand for transparency, accountability and participation
• Democracy in its three dimensions: social, economic and political
• Society not only as an object of public policies, but demanding participation in policy definition and execution
• Citizens are engaged as bearers of rights of whose fulfilment the State is guarantor
• This is expressed in: open government initiatives, open data, Principle 10, participatory budgeting, the World Charter for the Right to the City, the Montréal Charter of Rights and Responsibilities, and the European Charter for the Safeguarding of Human Rights in the City, among many other participation instruments originating in civil society.
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Source: World Bank. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#reports
The region has lacklustre levels of participation and accountability
World: voice and accountability index, 2013
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Society (citizens) feeling unrepresented
Source: Latinobarómetro 2015. Q. Do you feel that the government represents you politically? Or the parliament/congress?
Latin America: sense of being represented by the government or parliament/congress, 2015 (Percentages)
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Compacts for equality as a tool for building a new equation
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Politics and policymaking: the importance of compacts
• The development crossroads the region has reached calls for revisiting relations between institutions and structures, involving a wide range of agents in the process
• A compact is a political tool for putting into place, within a democratic framework, medium-term institutional policies and reforms with a strategic vision, with less risk that they will be reversed later
• A social compact is necessary at a time of changes in relations between the State, the market and society, with social effervescence and the emergence of new forms of participation
• The citizenry is a party to the compact, as a full bearer of rights, with the State acting as guarantor of those rights
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Compacts for equality
• New fiscal compacts are badly needed • Trust and reciprocity between the State and citizens • Consolidate public spending with a redistributive impact • Agreements on origin and destination of resources for the State • Transparency and accountability
• Agreements for better governance of natural resources: taking advantage of windfall gains
• Investment in productivity: tradables (manufacturing with innovation) and non-tradables (infrastructure)
• Coordination of macro, industrial, social and environmental policies • Social consultation and consensus-building with accountability
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Reciprocity as a basis for a fiscal compact: a rights-based approach to improving spending quality
Source: CAF, 2011.
35
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Fiscal compact, stakeholders and reciprocity: tightening the link with the citizenry
• The CAF survey found that families in Latin America “would pay more tax” if the Government did its job better (www.caf.com/investigacion) – For eliminating corruption: 11.5% would pay more
– For better health and education: 11.5%
– For better public safety: 11.4%
– For more protection for the poor: 9.2%
• Citizens do not like to pay tax, but when they do pay they feel they have more right to demand responses from the authorities – This is the opinion of 72.6% of households in Latin America
• The evidence shows a vicious circle between tax (especially direct tax), accountability, reciprocity and the quality of public spending
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Recasting the industrial architecture
Promote structural change mainstreaming environmental
sustainability
Build new institutions to boost productivity on the basis of explicit
industrial policy
Link low-productivity sectors with those already on the technology
frontier
A comprehensive SME support strategy with inclusive financing that links SMEs with more dynamic sectors
A more prominent role for science and technology
Mechanisms for mediation in socio-environmental conflicts
Land use management and urban planning
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
Good links between social spending and structure help to boost social spending, productivity and equality
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of Standardized World Income Inequality Database, version 4.0, September 2013; Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), STAN Structural Analysis Database; and World Bank, World Development Indicators.
United States, 38
Australia; 33,4
Canadá; 32
Denmark, 25.2
Finland, 26
Rep. of Ireland, 33.1
New Zealand, 31.7
Sweden, 26.9
Rep. of Korea, 31.1
Singapore, 44.8
Hong Kong (SAR of China), 43.1
Argentina; 44,5
Brazil, 54.7
Chile; 50,1
Colombia; 55,9 Costa Rica; 50,7 Ecuador; 49,3
Mexico, 47.2
Peru, 48.1
Uruguay; 45,3
Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of), 44.8
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0
Lab
ou
r p
rod
uct
ivit
y
Social spending as a percentage of GDP
Labour productivity and social spending as a percentage of GDP, around 1990 and 2010, and inequality around 2010 (Constant dollars at 2005 prices and percentages)
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
A new State-market-society (citizens) equation • The public arena as representing collective interests, not merely
public sector or national level concerns
• Political accords for a new social and intergenerational contract, defining responsibilities, ensuring protection of rights and providing accountability systems
• Establishing a culture of collective development based on tolerance for difference and diversity
• Strategic long-term vision built from within, promoting compacts between industrial stakeholders
– Forums for dialogue between the public and private sectors and public institutions to dovetail business strategies with development objectives
– Institutions and policies are needed to coordinate investment with the local production fabric in sectors that are priorities for industrial modernization plans
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
A new equation needs long-term compacts St
ron
g ro
le f
or
the
Sta
te • Development
strategy
• Fiscal capacity
• Professional management
• Transparency and social participation
Mar
ket
• Regulated
• With proper financing
• Coordination for development strategy
Soci
ety
(cit
ize
ns)
• Stimulus for stronger institutions
• Participation and access to public policies
• Democracy and social and economic policy
A new State-market-society equation for development in Latin America and the Caribbean
Antonio Prado
“The new development paradigm must be made to do
everything possible to build a model of globalization that
breeds greater collective awareness of global public goods,
awakens democracy across the planet by affording a voice to
the most diverse range of actors in the open concert of global
governance, and provides excluded sectors with the tools
needed to close gaps in capacity, citizens' rights and access to
well-being. The new model of globalization must develop
policies with a long-term vision --but start work on them as a
matter of urgency-- in order to remain one step ahead of the
climate, technological, demographic and cultural scenarios
that current trends are now projecting.”
ECLAC (2010) Time for Equality.