approved for public release – distribution unlimited afwa update spring 2011 john zapotocny 13...
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Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited
AFWA UpdateSpring 2011
John Zapotocny13 April 2011
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
Overview
Mission and Organizational Structure
1st Weather Group NCEP SPC & AWC Backup Events (15 OWS)
2nd Weather Group NESDIS VAAC Backup Events (2 WS) Volcanic Ash Forecasting Improvements (16 WS) WRF Status & Plans (16 WS)
HQ AFWA – Ops Status & Near Term Initiatives Ops Center Consolidation (A3) UKMO Unified Model Integration (A5/8) Joint Urgent Operation Need (JUON) Effort (A5/8) Air Force Weather Web Services (AFW-WEBS) Progress Report (A5/8)
2
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 3
AFWA Mission
Maximizing America’s Power through the
Exploitation of Timely, Accurate, and Relevant Weather Information;Anytime, Everywhere
F-22
Atlas V EELV Launch
C-17
Joint USAF/USA Patrol near Balad AB
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 4
AFWA Structure
22 GSUs
1st Weather GroupOffutt AFB
1st Weather GroupOffutt AFB
FOA CommanderOffutt AFB, NE
FOA CommanderOffutt AFB, NE
26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA
26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA
15 OWSScott AFB, IL
15 OWSScott AFB, IL
2 SYOSOffutt AFB2 SYOS
Offutt AFB
2nd Weather GroupOffutt AFB
2nd Weather GroupOffutt AFB
2 WSOffutt AFB
2 WSOffutt AFB
16 WSOffutt AFB
16 WSOffutt AFB
2 CWSSHurlburt Fld, FL
2 CWSSHurlburt Fld, FL
14 WSAsheville, NC
14 WSAsheville, NC25 OWS
D-M AFB, AZ25 OWS
D-M AFB, AZ
A3Offutt AFB
A3Offutt AFB
A 5/8Offutt AFB
A 5/8Offutt AFB
A 6Offutt AFB
A 6Offutt AFB
CC Staff: DP, DS, FM Offutt AFB
CC Staff: DP, DS, FM Offutt AFB
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 5
1 WXG
1st Weather GroupOffutt AFB
1st Weather GroupOffutt AFB
26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA
26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA
15 OWSScott AFB, IL
15 OWSScott AFB, IL
25 OWSD-M AFB, AZ
25 OWSD-M AFB, AZ
Three Operational Weather Squadrons (OWSs)
Characterize the environment in USNORTHCOM AOR
15 OWS (Scott AFB) / 25 OWS (D-M AFB) / 26 OWS (Barksdale AFB)
Ops Mission – provide 24/7 timely, accurate and relevant weather information to AF, Army, Guard & Reserve forces
Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts for 97 airfields
Resource Protection for 348 Total Force locations
Graphical aviation forecasts for North America
Aircrew mission-execution weather briefings
Training Mission – provide initial and up-grade training for 60% of weather career field accessions (enlisted and officer)
Mission ExecutionCharacterization / Threat Assessment
Developing Airmen
F-16s flying an Operation Noble Eagle combat air patrol over the East Coast.
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
Operational Backup15 OWS
NCEP SPC/AWC backup mission has fully transitioned to 1 WXG 15 OWS at Scott AFB, IL
Events since May 2010 Storm Prediction Center – 3 real-world backups Aviation Weather Center – 3 real-world backups 13 successful rehearsals
System infrastructure for SPC/AWC staff relocation in case of a catastrophic outage is retained at Offutt AFB
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 7
2 WXG
2 SYOS2 SYOS
2nd Weather GroupOffutt AFB
2nd Weather GroupOffutt AFB
2 WS2 WS
16 WS16 WS
2 CWSSHurlburt Fld, FL
2 CWSSHurlburt Fld, FL
14 WSAsheville, NC
14 WSAsheville, NC
Global Production Center – Collection, Analysis, Forecasting, Distribution
DoD’s only ‘real-time’ 24/7 weather production for intelligence ops
DoD's only ‘real-time’ 24/7 space environment analysis/forecast capability for JSpOC, NORAD, Space Operators, HF, and GPS users
DoD’s lead agency for decision-enabling applied climatology and weather modeling & simulation
DoD’s only provider for global volcanic ash advisories
Collect/process/disseminate meteorological and space weather info
Critical reachback node for war fighters worldwide
Develop and exploit state-of-the-art weather forecasting models and web services to enhance joint military and intelligence operations
Provide scientific services to improve forecasting for the war fighter
Fielded wx system SMEs; conduct test/eval, wx systems deployment training, and deployed maintenance on tactical wx systems
Dust Transport Algorithm Surface Visibility
Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements
World Wide Merged Cloud Analysis
FOB Warhorse Balad, Iraq
SWA Dust VisibilityRestriction Climatology Forward Deployed Global Hawk Operations
Tactical Air Control Party In the Fight
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
Operational Backup2 WS
NESDIS – Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Real-world or training backup is required at least quarterly AOR includes CONUS, Northern South America, Caribbean,
Pacific Ocean to include Hawaii and Guam, and western Atlantic (blue area)
5 short-term real-world backups (lasting a few hours) Communications Outage (1) Power Outage (2) Fire Drill (1) Manning Issue (1)
3 successful scheduled rehearsals
8
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 9
Volcanic Ash Initiatives16 WS
HYSPLIT Community model developed by Air Resources Lab (ARL/NOAA)
Offline model driven by NWP winds to provide volcanicash dispersion and concentration forecasts
Transitions to operations by Summer 2011
WRF-Chem for Volcanic Ash NOAA/ESRL, Univ. of Alaska-Fairbanks, AFWA
WRF with in-line GOCART chemistry module – 3D trajectories/particle heights, mass concentration, deposition, and ash fall accumulation
Data assimilation efforts are ongoing
Ensemble mode under investigation to provide uncertainty information
WRF-Chem for VA
HYSPLIT
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 10
Dust Modeling Initiatives16 WS
Improved Dust Source Regions from DesertResearch Institute (DSR) Accounts for pedologic, hydrologic, chemical,
biological, & geomorphic processes along with topography
To include Arabian Peninsula, Egypt, Northern CENTCOM; IOC - Nov 11
DTA-WRF 15/45-km and DTA-GFS(SWA, East Asia, Northern Africa)
Dust concentration and visibility products (4x daily)
WRF-Chem Dust Dust concentration and visibility products using an
inline chemistry model and state-of-the-art physics (diagnostic and stochastic forecast products)
Increased horizontal resolution (4-km)
DA-WRF 45-km to72 hrs (Vis)
30-km to 144 hrs (Stochastic DLP-Dust Lofting Potential); Africa/SWA
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 11
Cloud Forecasting Initiatives 16 WS
AFWA Advect Cloud Model (ADVCLD) Global short range cloud cover prediction model Uses GFS winds (U, V, and W) to “advect” clouds
forward in time Improved version - Jun 11
AFWA Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model (DCF) Regional & Global cloud cover prediction model Uses statistical correlations to compute forecasts
Cloud Optical Properties (COP) Algorithms improve cloud top
height assignment and identify transmissive cirrus clouds (ice)
Used in cloud analysis model- IOC 4CY11
DCF 15-km Total Cloud Cover
Satellite Image Current Cloud Mask COP Cloud Mask
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 12
WRF at AFWA16 WS
WRF Operational Configuration
Yonsei Univ PBL Physics LIS - LoBC from NOAH LSM WRFDA – Transitioning to GSI 72hrs, 48 or 144hrs, & 30hrs
57 Vertical Levels 10 mb model top Kain-Fritsch Convection 45km, 15km, & 5km domains
Near-Term Plans Initialize WRF with UK Unified Model run at AFWA Implement hi-res (5/1.67km) domains in conjunction with Joint
Unified Operational Need Statement (JUONS) Implement regional ensembles—N & S Hemisphere w/Tropical
Stripe circa 20km; 2-6 relocatable 4km domains Control member may supplant 15km deterministic domains Adjust design to account for JUONS requirements
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
HQ AFWA & Near Term
Initiatives of Interest
13
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 14
A3 Operations, Training and Evaluations
AFW Heads Up Display
Intellipedia
A3 Director Offutt AFB
A3 Director Offutt AFB
A3OCurrent
Operations
A3OCurrent
Operations
A3TTraining
A3TTraining
A3VStandardization and
Evaluations
A3VStandardization and
Evaluations
OL-HFt. Huachuca
OL-HFt. Huachuca
Knowledge Centerhttps://afwkc.csd.disa.mil
AFWA Ops Center Similar Concept to DoD Air/Space
Operations Center
Lead AFWA Operations Center 24x7x365
Operate the AFW HUD: Maintain awareness of 800+ AFWWS components and global weather operations
Standards/Evaluations (SEPWO), Tactics, Metrics
Develop non-formal weather training (CBTs) and COMET Liaison
Provides AFWA Notices to the Field: interface for AFW policy, AFWA production environment, lead command , A-staff, and the user community
DMSP coordinator and user representative
F-16 Departs Balad AB on CAS Mission
DMSP F-18, launched 18 Oct 2009
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 15
AFWA Ops CenterOperations Focal Point - 24x7x365
Requirements – AFWA/CC org box is AFWA Front Door [email protected]
Entry point for operational support needs & new requirements
AFWA Ops Center extends AFWA/CC org box monitor to 24x7x365
Problem Reports/Ops Coord – AFWA Ops Center Single Telephone entry point
DSN 271-2586
Commercial (402) 294-2586
Toll Free (800) 250-1750
NIPR [email protected]
SIPR [email protected]
COPC Focal Point for All Operational Issues
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 16
Display status of AFWA internal production systemsand external infrastructure
Displays status of AF Weather fielded systemsin KML format with wide choice of overlays
Internal/External Production Monitoring
Fielded Systems Monitoring
AFWA Ops CenterOperations Focal Point 24x7x365
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win
A5/A8Strategic Plans, Requirements and Programs
WxPod
AFW WEBS
A5/8 Director Offutt AFB
A5/8 Director Offutt AFB
A5CCapabilities
A5CCapabilities
A5ROperational Capability
Requirements
A5ROperational Capability
Requirements
A8FLead Command
Management
A8FLead Command
Management
OL-KNorman, OK
OL-KNorman, OK
A8PPrograms
A8PPrograms
A8XStrategic Plans
A8XStrategic Plans
Performs capabilities-based requirements development for AFWWS
Plans, Programs & Fields AF Weather Weapon System
Directs Sustainment of Fielded Programs Worldwide
Coordinates with DoD and National Weather Agencies
https://weather.af.milTMQ-53
HH-60G Pave Hawk helicopter rescue mission from Balad ABPDR
FMQ-22
17
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 18
Unified Model at AFWA
UM Integration into Operations Implement initial capability at 25km global resolution
Initial & Lateral Boundary Conditions for regional WRF domains
Transitioning many regional worldwide domains (45/15/5km resolution) to fewer larger domains (15/5km resolution) to 144hrs
Serve data to warfighters via AFW Web Enterprise Services
Upgrade resolution to ~17km in support of Joint Unified Operational Needs Statement
Used to drive very hi-res regional WRF domains (5/1.67km)
Expand to 384hr forecast length for long-term ops planning
Investigating prospects of enhancing National Unified Ensemble with UM members – NUOPC interest item
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 19
JUONPersistent Surveillance System
High-res models to support PSS aerostats Collaborating w/ UKMO, NCAR, ARL
UM: 17km global
WRF: 5km SWA and 1.67km Iraq/Afghanistan domains
3DWF: 50m over select locations
New HPC to run models 51 Tflops - Unclass, 14 Tflops - Secret
Collecting/encoding automated aerostat observations for resource protection, WRF initialization Surface data in METAR format
Upper air data in AMDAR format
USJFCOM Photo of PGSS by Air Force Staff Sgt. Vanessa Valentine
Photo downloaded from Lockheed Martin PTDS website
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 20
AFW-WEBS Update
20
AFW Enterprise Portal
IOC achieved Unclass/Secret (SCI Apr 2011)
Optimizing MetWatch tools
Add’l Satellite Enhancements
Drawing Tools
A/N Obs/TAFs Web Feature Service request
Integrated Styles into services
Further customization of data
Save Preferences capability
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 2121
AFW-WEBSUp Next
Integrate Google Earth Plug-in Ingest 100% of Level III NEXRAD data Further improve meteograms/Skew-T
Develop in “Flex”—interactive Continue transition off JAAWIN Expand product suite
Analysis products Specialized Models
Develop add’l user features User-defined thresholds Sharing profiles Value-added Interactive Web
Applications & Services Integrate OWS holdings
Aim High…Fly, Fight, Win 22
Questions?