Applying Advanced Spatial Tools for Landscape Analysis and Climate Change

Adaptation in Asian Highlands:

Yunnan Case

Jianchu XuPresented at ICRAF, Nairobi, 5th March, 2012

With Support fromRobert Zomer, Antonio Trabucoo, Huafang Chen, Rong Lang, Haiying Yu,

Wen Sha, Xueqing Yang, Xing Ma, Xuefei YangWorld Agroforestry Centre, East Asia Node

Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies

Outline of Presentation

The RegionGlobal change Evidence of impactsYunnan Case

Navigating from Highlands to Lowlands in Asia

malayan Glaciers, the largest outside of polar region

Tibetan Plateau

Great Rivers of Northwest Yunnan

Xishuangbanna, Southern Yunnan

Tonle Sap of Cambodia

Mekong Delta of Vietnam

GlobalImportance of BiodiversityOne of four richest vascular plant regionsThe richest Gymnosperms in the world Two global biodiversity hotspots:Southwest China, Indo-Burma

SW China

Indo-Burma

Biodiversity Hotspots

Small scale differences in• Temperature• Water• Nutrients• Substrate

Geodiversity drives species diversity

Habitat diversity is driven by gravity

Indigenous groups along Mekong Region Transect

Complex social/ethnic groups with dynamic livelihoods:

• Tibetan nomads

• Agro-pastalist

• Upland farmers

• Shifting cultivators

• Paddy farmers

• Fishery

Diverse landscapes & ecosystems:• High Plateau

• Alpine

• Subtropical

• Tropical

• Aquatic/wetland

The Greater Rivers

Vertical Linkage in Mountain Ecosystem

What does global change mean for ecosystem?

Land use/cover change

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Climate Change25~30%

water

temperature

＋emission

—sequestration

What are the implications of land use/cover change to biodiversity and environmental security?

Science 2009 (324): 1024-1025

Temperature Gradient in Himalayans

(Adapted from Liu and Chen 2000, and AB Shrestha 1999)

Warming Faster than Global Average in high altitude

23/41

Projected precipitation changes by 2100

At least 10%reduction

At least 10%increase

Hadley Circulation

Haydley Circulation and Droughts in Southwest China

Fu et al, 2006, Science; Seidel, Fu et al, 2008, Nature Geoscience

What impact of climate change on alpine ecosystem?

Yu, Luedeling and Xu, 2010. PNAS 107, 22151-22156

Delaying phenology in Tibetan Plateau phenology

Beginning of the growing season

(BGS) in meadow and

steppe vegetation Remotely

sensed (GIMMS dataset 1982-

2006)

Clear delays in

recent years

26/41

Habitat loss following climatic change (doubling of atmospheric CO2 )

27/41

Landscape and Livelihood Linkage

Landscape

Livelihood

Tourism

Hydrological cycle

Mountainagriculture

Slope stabilityCryosphere Biosphere

Safety of people

Hydropower

Conservation Biology 2009，23(3) 520–530.

What are the Social-Ecological Cascading Effects from mountain top to delta?

Yunnan-A Unique Province in China

Rich Plant Diversity & Resources

About one third or more of 41 million residents in

Yunnan are ethnic peoples of 25 minorities

Diverse and attractive ethnic culture

Applying the GEnS – Global Stratification for Assessing Regional Climate Change

Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems

A globally consistent bio-climatic stratification based upon statistical quantitative approach using spatially distributed climate data (WorldClim) developed within the framework of the GeoBON (GEOSS Biodiversity Observation Network) (Metzger et al. 2010)

Allows for comparative analysis across regions and statistically-based prediction of future change based upon changing climatic conditions

GEnS – Bioclimate Map

Metzger, M.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Jongman, R.H.G., Sayre, R., Trabucco, A., Zomer, R. (2012) A high resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research. Global Ecology and Biogeography. In Press.

Yunnan Province - Projected Climate Change Hadley GCM – Scenario A2Precipitation (mm)

Temperature (°C)

Aridity Index( > is more humid)

Generally Wetter

Average Annual Precipitation increases by 9.7 percent from 1137 mm/yr to 1260 mm/yr

Generally Hotter

Average Annual Temperatureincreases by 12 percent from 15.5°C to 17.5°C

Non-Uniform Impacts

Changes in growing conditions are spatially differentiated across the region

Yunnan Province – Environmental StratificationAnd Predicted Change

Can species run faster enough to cope with climate change? (e.g.: 500m elevation change)

Kenya Marathon runner

Chinese flyer man

Benchmark Site: Xishuangbanna(Total area: 19,200km2, Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve)

XishuangbannaLanduse Change 2002 -2010

Expansion of Forest

Expansion of Rubber

Loss of swidden-fallow succession

Loss of Agricultural Land

XishuangbannaLanduse Change Dynamics and Tree Cover

Using MODIS VCF For Regional Validation of “Global Trees on Farm” Methodology

Tree Cover Analysis Consistent with Landuse Change Analysis

2000-2005

Xishuangbanna PrefectureChina’s Biodiversity Treasure

A vast number of plant and animal species. Biodiversity plays an important role in economy, society, culture, religion. More than 200 species are in rare, endangered and near endangered status.

Expansion of rubber production is a major threat, which increases with climate change. However, conditions in existing protected areas will change drastically by 2050.

MaxEnt; training AUC=0.99; test AUC 0.97 (+/-0.007 SD)

Global habitat suitability for rubbercalculated from the 110 records from GBIF

Rubber is already planted in most areas that we identify as suitable

Benchmark Site:Baoshan

Total area:23,000km2

Gaoligong Mt. National Nature Reserve

Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity & Ecosystem services: Baoshan Ecological Forest Monitoring

Changing climatic conditions will impact existing forests, and

associated biodiversity

Protected areas may no longer protect intended

habitats

Temperate Forests and

Higher Altitude Communities Likely

at Risk

Expansion of Tropical Forest

Zones

Gaoligongshan National Nature ReserveBaoshan Prefecture

A Biodiversity Hotspot / UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Approx. 405,500 ha. of highly diverse montane forest with a extraordinary mix of diverse flora and fauna.

The highest areas have been designated as an strict conservation, with no visitors allowed. Climatic conditions in these higher elevation habitats are drastically altered by 2050.

Incorporating adaptation scenarios to predict spatial species distribution of alpine plants

No adaptation, local extinction

Adaptation through range

shift

Local adaptation by physio-

morphological change, or even

speciation

Adaptation scenarios

1. Does alpine plants shift upward under warming temperature in SW China?

2. If yes, what is the rate of range shift to corresponding climate change?

3. If not, what are the adaptation strategies?

Focal plants: Rhododendron spp.

Climate envelope models

Two ways to design linkages for climate change

New way: corridors for diverse

land facets

The “old” (2005) way: linked dynamic

models

Facet: One of the flat polished surfaces cut on a

gemstone… perform no better than chance (Beale et al. 2008. PNAS 104:14908

P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010

Land facet: a landscape polygon of relatively uniform topography and soil

Wessels et al. 1999. Biological Conservation

Land facets as drivers of biodiversity

Plants & animals are (and will be) a function of:

Climate

The state-factor model of ecosystems.Hans Jenny (1941); Amundson & Jenny (1997)

Soil type

Insolation

Topographic position

Elevation

?

These variables define land facets.

Distribution of plants & animals

Land facets will interact with future climate to

support new assemblages of plants and animals.

“Conserve the arenas of biological activity rather than the temporary occupants of

those arenas.”(Hunter et al. 1988)

The approach should identify a continuous strand of each land facet, and a strand with high diversity of facets.

These will help plants & animals shift their ranges as climate change

P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010 Conservation Biology

Examples of land facets

• mid-elevation, steep ridges with rocky soils• low-elevation, high-insolation (sunny) flat areas with thick soils

If good soil maps are lacking, facets can be defined solely on topographic variables.

Conserving the arenas, not the actors: land facets as biodiversity surrogates in planning for climate changeP. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology

Join All CorridorsAdd a riparian corridor if needed

Many soil maps are not useful.If needed, use presence of water or riparian plants to map a “moist soil facet”

Facet A CorridorFacet B CorridorFacet C CorridorCorridor with interspersed facets

P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology

Advantages of using land facets to define corridors

• Useful where no vegetation maps exist.

• No bias to include “data-rich” areas in the design.

• Not subject to error propagation from linked, highly uncertain models.

• Not subject to error compounding from projecting 50-100 years into the future. P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology

Yunnan Province, ChinaAnnual Net Primary Productivity (NPP)

Annual net primary productivity (NPP) averaged over a period from 2000 to 2006, based on MOD17 – MODIS Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production estimates derived from satellite remote sensing data at a resolution of 250m2

(Running et al., 2005).

Projected NPP in 2050 is calculated based on increase (or decrease) of zonal areas.

ResultsCan expect significant climatic changeCan expect significant impact on ecosystem and species / productivityCan expect species and ecosystems shift Hotspots of change/ change-ecotones identified High risk ecotypes identified

Implications for Environmental MonitoringNeed to consider the impact of climate change on monitoring and conservation designTarget climate vulnerable ecotypes and speciesLandscape approach for climate change adaptation