Applied Predictive AnalysisDavid Attaway, Esri

Brooks Jonathan Breece, NGA/Office of Sciences and Methodologies

Overview

• ArcGIS Desktop Addin --- FREE

- http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.ht

ml?id=91c9fce0d3d5487fac1c71f44e7

2dca4

OR

- Contact Esri through Email

- predictiveanalysis@esri.com for

questions about

getting/installing/using tools.

• Set of tools for…

- Raster-based querying

- Mobility and proximity data creation

- Temporal analysis

Predictive Analysis Tools

Agenda:

• What are the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools (PA Tools)?

- Overview

- Functionality / Demo

• Versatility / Architecture of PA Tools

- Story map Examples

• Web Based Predictive Analysis Tools

- Overview

- Functionality / Demo

• Questions and Answers

• Closing

ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools

The Predictive Analysis tools are a suite of tools to

help analysts get ahead of rather than reacting to a

problem. The tools are designed to leverage and

expand upon existing Esri out-of-the-box capabilities

and expose complex analysis workflows in an intuitive

way.

What are they?

Capabilities

• Predict suitable locations, and travel routes

• Extremely fast to accommodate iterative analysis

• Auto-generate analysis based on historic data

• Repeatable and shareable workflows

• Easy to use

Predictive Analysis Tools

Homeland Security

Stopping Smugglers

Environmental Management

Preservation

Law Enforcement

Fighting Drug Production

GeoDesign

Urban Planning

Landscape Architecture

Sustainability

Defense and Intel

Finding Enemy Targets

Medical Geography & Health

Susceptibility

Weather

Modeling / Forecasting

VersatilityVersatility

Predictive Analysis Tools

Use Cases…

• Site Selection

• Mobility Modeling

• Route Analysis

• Temporal Pattern Analysis

Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?

• Site Selection

- Where are possible sites?

- Where are similar sites?

- Why is/isn’t a site suitable?

• Mobility Modeling

• Route Analysis

• Temporal Pattern Analysis

Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?

Zika VirusDengue FeverPanga Boat InterdictionCounter Drug

• Site Selection

• Mobility Modeling

- How are the rules of movement for

an entity defined?

- Where can/can’t an entity go?

- How far away is an entity from

something? (Distance or Time)

• Route Analysis

• Temporal Pattern Analysis

Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?

Drive-time AnalysisTravel Corridor Analysis

Choke PointsRefugee Migration

• Site Selection

• Mobility Modeling

• Route Analysis

- What is the fastest route?

- How long is the route?

- Where are all possible routes?

• Temporal Pattern Analysis

Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?

• Site Selection

• Mobility Modeling

• Route Analysis

• Temporal Pattern Analysis

- Is there evidence of cyclic activities?

- Are there anomalous activities?

- Are there any temporal

relationships?

Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?

Temporal Patterns

Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life

Build Query

(Query Editor)

Analyze

Results

(SPOT Tool)

Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis

(Route Finder)

Refine

Share Analysis

Final Analysis

Map

Define Question

Prepare Data

(Geoprocessing, Speed Model

Builder)

Predictive Site Suitability

Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of Life

Perform Statistical Analysis

(Query Generator)

Build Query

(Query Editor)

Analyze

Results

(SPOT Tool)

Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis

(Route Finder)

Refine

Share Analysis

Final Analysis

Map

Define Question

Prepare Data

(Geoprocessing, Speed Model

Builder)

Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life

Build Query

(Query Editor)

Analyze

Results

(SPOT Tool)

Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis

(Route Finder)

Refine

Final Analysis

Map

Define Question

Prepare Data

(Geoprocessing, Speed Model

Builder)

Predictive Site Suitability

Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of Life

Perform Statistical Analysis

(QFIT)

Build Query

(Query Editor)

Analyze

Results

(SPOT Tool)

Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis

(Route Finder)

Refine

Define Question

Prepare Data

(Geoprocessing, Speed Model

Builder)

Predicting Aedes Habitat and suitable locations for vector borne diseaseSummary

Altitude

Minimum Temperature

Population

Landcover

Maximum TemperatureAnnual Precipitation

1. Where are we likely to have mosquito

borne disease?

2. What are the most important

parameters to minimize risk?

3. Which environments are most

suitable to mosquito borne disease?

David Attaway

Predicting Aedes Habitat

and suitable locations

for vector borne disease

Method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to

identify locations suitable for mosquito activity year-round.

http://arcg.is/23MP6P2

http://arcg.is/1sbfofp

The Problem…

Predicting Drug Trafficking Locations and Movements

• Where will they likely have a farm site?

• How quickly can they transport their product?

• Use doctrinal knowledge to set movement constraints

• Use past data to optimize searching for farms

• Auto-generate search criteria

• Find likely travel routes from the farms to the ocean

Demo Scenario

Drug Grow Analysis - 2013

• Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows

• Aspect

• Land Ownership

• Roads

• Slope

• Streams and Rivers

• Trails

• Vegetation Over Story

• Vegetation Under Story

• Water Bodies

Q-FIT

Drug Grow Analysis - 2013Final Result

5 Lessons Learned - 2013

• Major transportation routes & major population areas

• Imagery analysis revealed clusters of grows downstream from

reservoirs

• Special agent observed several grows in an area cleared by fire

• Grows clusters appear on outer edges of the forest

• Output needs to be continuous

Drug Grow Analysis - 2014

• Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows

• Slope

• Streams and Rivers

• Trails

• Vegetation Over Story

• Vegetation Under Story

• Water Bodies

Query Generator

• Major Highways

• Roads

• Fire History

• Artificial Streams and Rivers

• Forest Boundary

Drug Grow Analysis - 2014Final Result

2013 vs. 2014Final Result

Web Solution…

Predictive Analysis Web Tools

• What they are…

- JavaScript Widgets for the Query Editor / Query Inspector

- Compatible with ArcGIS Web App Builder

• What they do…

- Queries as fast as desktop version

- Supports large data, and live services

- Pre-defined queries for reuse and collaboration

• When they are available…

- Will be available soon via ArcGIS Online

Predictive Analysis Tools

Predictive Analysis FrameworkWeb Tools Overview

• Query Editor

• Query Inspector

• Query Generator

Predictive Analysis Web Application

Available soon on ArcGIS online – contact predictiveanalysis@esri.com and they will send it to you today!!!!

Road Map…

• Now

- Version 1.3 is available on the ArcGIS online

- The Predictive Analysis Add-In is available for free to anyone here:

http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=91c9fce0d3d5487fac1c71f44e72dca4

- Previous Versions contact predictiveanalysis@esri.com

• Future / Ideas- More web capabilities

- Desktop tool automation

- Data Decay parameters

- Esri Professional Services will work with you on specific requirements…

- If you have the need for training or for any additional capabilities please contact our

Esri Professional Services team at predictiveanalysis@esri.com with your request

Predictive Analysis Tools

Questions?

Please Take Our Survey on the Esri Events App!

Select the session

you attended

Scroll down to find

the survey

Complete Answers

and Select “Submit”

Download the Esri Events

app and find your event

Print Your Certificate of Attendance

Print stations located in the 140 Concourse

Monday

12:30 PM – 6:30 PM

GIS Solutions Expo,

Hall B

5:15 PM– 6:30 PM

Expo Social,

Hall B

Tuesday

10:45 AM– 5:15 PM

GIS Solutions Expo,

Hall B

6:30 PM– 9:30 PM

Networking Reception,

Smithsonian National Air

and Space Museum