applied market intelligence auto embedded software: summary european commission project:...

Applied Market Intelligence

Auto Embedded Software: Summary

European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS

• EU position in auto embedded software is strong• Strong future EU competitiveness has some risks• Software standards will bring major advantages• Software standards also brings commoditization

Indirect economic value and impact of auto embedded software is much higher than direct market value


Auto Embedded Software: Big Picture


• Auto Industry Overview & Perspectives• Software standards: Upheaval impact

• Implications of Software Standards• EU Auto Software Position: Good & Bad News

• Current Problem: Infotainment Software• Future Problems: Commoditization; EV

Software?• Retaining EU Auto Software Strength: How?

• New Software Opportunities• Infrastructure Connected Auto Software

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Worldwide Auto Sales & Production Trends

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

SalesProduction

• Auto production & sales growing from 60M range in 2009 to 90M+ in 2020• Production is usually slightly higher than sales; except 2009


Regional Auto Sales Shares

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W.Europe

EU-27 USA Japan China

20062008201020152020

• Developed countries are losing market share in auto sales: EU, USA & Japan• China & others developing regions are growing their share• EU auto industry must follow regional auto sales growth or stagnate


Autos In-use per Capita Trend

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2008 2010 2015 2020

USAW. EuropeJapanChinaA-PWorldwide

Autos in-use per 1000 people

• Autos in-use per capita shows that USA/WE/Japan are near saturation with little growth• USA/WE/Japan auto sales are primarily replacing autos that are scrapped• China, A-P and other regions are growing auto sales and autos in-use per-capita


External Trends with Auto ICT Impact

Key Information Comments

Green Issues Lower emissionsBetter fuel efficiencyLess traffic congestion

Most improvements from ICTMost improvements from ICTEmerging ICT shows promise

Accident Mitigation

Passive system: crash protectionActive systems avoid crashes

New systems are ICT basedNew ICT warn/correct driver errors

Connected World Car

Drivers want connectionCar systems need connection

New ICT systems for connectionEmerging ICT functions

Infotainment Expansion

Digital music growthMobile device growthDigital TV & video emerging

Used in auto audio systemsConnected to auto audio systemsConnected to passenger systems

ICT=Information & Communication Technology ICT=Information, Computer & Telecommunication


Core Auto and Infotainment Systems

Domains Function Examples

Powertrain Controls the power and its distribution to the auto

Engine controlTransmission control

Chassis Controls the functions that guides the auto’s direction and speed

Steering controlBrake controlSuspension control

Safety & ADAS

Controls the auto’s safety systems. Many new systems are emerging

Air bag controlSeat belt controlAdaptive cruise control

Body & Comfort

Controls the driver and passengers’ convenience and comfort systems. Includes dash board & related controls

Heater & air conditioningWindows & seat controlWindow wipersInstrument cluster display

Infotainment Controls the entertainment and information systems used by driver and passengers

Radio & music systemsNavigation systemsTelematics & mobile phone


Key Auto Trends: Mostly ICT Based


Powertrain Trends

Gas & diesel engine will improveEV importance growingEV’s electricity from many sourcesLong-term EV will become leader

Mostly due to electronics advancesEV is a when, not if-questionBattery, engine-generator, hydrogenIs it in 2025 or 2035?

Driver Assist & ADAS Trends

Mostly warning systemsMostly for luxury autos Driver error correction emergingCollision mitigation emergingFuture integrated systems

Lane, blind spot, speed, parkingUltrasound park assist is exceptionStability control and othersImproves safety systems effectBased on ICT

Connected Car Trends

Multiple communication linksTelematics applications & servicesConnected navigation systemsConnected auto control systems

Embedded, driver phone & otherseCall, safety & infotainment functionsTraffic information & othersRemote diagnostics & others

Entertainment Trends

Digital radio receiversDigital music player interfacesInternet radio emergingPremium audio systems

Satellite radio in some regionsUSB, iPod and streaming BluetoothHigh bandwidth communication linkSurround sound music systems


ECU Hardware Overview


Microcomputer (MCU)

Many types, often defined by bit-size32-bit are most powerful MCUs nowOn-chip memory for many functions On-chip electronic buses, several types

8-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit MCUs64-bit used in special casesProgram & data storageConnect to other chips/devices

Memory Extra memory for complex functions Additional memory chips

Electronic buses

Multiple buses: low to high speedHigh-speed use separate control chips

LIN, CAN, FlexRay, othersDue to higher complexity

Sensors Measure pressure, temp, speed etc. On-chip or separate chip/device

Actuators Control mechanical devices in auto Usually separate chip/device

Reliability Auto industry requires extra testingAuto-grade more reliable than PC chips

For better reliabilityHigher cost per chip/device

Electronic Control Unit (ECU)ECU is the basic building block for auto ICT systems


Auto Software Overview

Core Auto Systems Infotainment Systems

System Examples

PowertrainChassis & BodySafety & driver assist

Entertainment (Head-unit)NavigationTelematics

Application Software Examples

ECU control software:Engine managementAnti-lock brake systemAir bag management

ECU control software:Turn-by-turn navigationDigital music player softwareeCall activation software

Operating System

Middleware softwareOS nucleus (kernel)

Middleware softwareOS nucleus (kernel)

Driver Software Examples

Electronic bus controlPressure sensor driverFuel injection driver

DVD or disk control softwareSpeech input or output softwareDisplay control software

Software Standards

AUTOSAR to be dominant GENIVI AllianceQNX, Microsoft Auto & others

SW Platform Standard: OS, SW Drivers & Standard Interfaces for Applications


1990 2000 2010 2020

Analog Car EraAnalog control systems

Analog-Digital Car EraDigital control system growth

Digital Car EraPlatform architectureRe-usable software

SW Defined Car EraChangeable operationGraceful degradation

ECUs

AUTOSARRemote Diagnostics

ECU Growth

ECU domain clusters Software API standards Remote SW Upgrades

Auto Functionality Is Mostly Software-Defined

Complex SW-based product are eventually linked to a SW management center

Cars: not if, but when

The car is the most complex product in volume production!


AUTOSAR Implications

Category Key Information Other Information

Positive Implications

EU companies lead standard effortEU companies lead deploymentStandards expand market sizeEU company opportunitiesApplication opportunity last longest

Multiple upgrades to comeEU luxury brands leadEarly EU expertise gainedOS, driver & applicationsApplications need innovation

Negative Implications

Standards increase competitionStandards lead to commodity productsCommodity products has low profit

Global expertise, not localPost 2015 for OS & driverFavours low-cost regions

Current implications are primarily POSITIVE Future implications: Some are NEGATIVE


GENIVI Implications

Category Key Information Other Information

Positive Implications

Infotainment OS/API standard effortOpen source advantagesStandards expand market sizeEU company opportunitiesApplication opportunity last longest

US, EU & other regionsLow cost, no dominant playerMany advantagesOS, driver & applicationsApplications need innovation

Negative Implications

GENIVI not likely to be dominantNo head start for EU companiesStandards increase competitionStandards lead to commoditizationCommodity products has low profit

QNX & Microsoft competitionUnlike in AUTOSARGlobal expertise, not localPost 2015 for OS & driverFavors low-cost regions

Current implications are primarily POSITIVE Future implications: Some are NEGATIVE


Auto Software Standard Landscape

Core Auto SystemsPowertrain systemsChassis & SafetyADAS & Driver AssistBody systemsComfort & Convenience

Infotainment SystemsAudio systemsNavigation systemsRear/front-seat entertainmentMobile device connectionsTelematics systems

AUTOSARApps software interfaceSoftware standardsMultiple MCUs2009-10 deployment

GENIVIApps software interfaceSoftware standardsBMW, GM, PSA, Renault2012-13 deployment

Others?

Microsoft AutoApps software interfaceSoftware standardsFiat, Ford, Hyundai/Kia2006 deployment

QNX CARApps software interfaceReference platformUsed by most OEMs2002 deployment

AndroidApps software interfaceSoftware standardsConti auto platform2012-13 deployment


Software Standard Impact

Impact/Changes Comments

OEM Control

Higher level building blocksOEM retains more controlDesign details less important

Computer platform componentsSystem architecture become crucialTier 1 may provide less value

New Suppliers

Computer platform focusContract manufacturers

bSquare, Elektrobit, Vector, dSpaceFlextronics (Ford Sync)

Feature Growth

Faster feature upgradesRemote feature upgrade

Platform-based design advantageUsed by Ford Sync

Cost Savings

Fewer ECU typesHigher ECU volumesRe-usable system softwareBetter development toolsFewer software errorsCommoditization post-2015

Standard ECUs tailored by softwareLower cost per ECULower cost per OS & driver softwareHigher software design efficiencyLower software development costFrom local to global competition

Commodity Effect

Hardware commoditizationSoftware commoditization

Eventually happens with standardsNew features to grow software value


Transportation Systems

• ITS software• V2X software

Auto Impact Systems

• PC software• Mobile phone apps• Digital content/SW• Web content/SW

Auto Related Software Spectrum

Software Design Tools

• Software design• SW simulation• Software testing

Infotainment Software

Test & Diagnostic Software

ITS & V2X Software

Auto Embedded Software

• Core auto software• Infotainment software• Future applications

• New core SW• New infotainment SW


EU Auto ICT Position

Category Key Information Other InformationLuxury Auto Position

Luxury autos always ICT EU has 3 top luxury brands

Due to initial high ICT priceBMW, Mercedes-Benz & Audi

Strong ICT Suppliers

ICT innovation for luxury brandsLater ICT for volume brandsNon-EU ICT business follows

Early market entry & leadershipLearning curve & tech advancesFrom non-EU auto manufacturers

Independent Auto Suppliers

All key EU suppliers independentCaptive suppliers in USA & Japan

More competition & business savvyDelphi/Visteon/Denso captive earlier

Key ICT Suppliers

Bosch & Continental are leadersAutoliv, Hella, Valeo, others

Across most ICT segmentsLeaders in specific ICT segments

Software Companies

Many small, strong companiesMostly focused on EU ICT

Focused on specific auto mfgsSome global success, more is likely

Automotive Semi

Infineon & ST Micro are leadersNXP and others are strong

Across many ICT segmentsLeaders in specific ICT segments

Current Status: Nearly All Good News


EU Technology: Strengths and Weaknesses

Key Information Other Information

BMW Leading luxury brand worldwideSoftware innovatorLeader in AUTOSAR & Genivi

USA, Europe and other regionsCrucial to continued EU SW leadershipUnderstands benefits of SW API

VW 3rd largest auto producerLeader in EU, China, other regionsTop EU electronics customer

Gained share in 2009 recessionStrong presence in most regionsSoftware, semiconductor & electronics

Other EU Auto OEMs

M-B is another luxury brand leaderM-B: 2nd to BMW in SW innovationOthers are average in SW

USA, Europe and other regionsStrong in driver assist and ADASPSA, Renault & Fiat

Tier 1 Companies

Bosch & Continental: World-classMany other strong companiesEU has strongest Tier 1 companies

Multiple segments, Strong in SWAutoliv, Hella, Magneti, ValeoEU position, but also other regions

Semi Companies

Infineon & ST Micro: World-classNXP strong in infotainment

Across multiple auto segmentsOther good companies in automotive

EU Weakness

Too focused on combustion engineEV: when-question, not if-questionEU can catch-up in EVInfotainment SW is fair to good

EU strength, but will fade post 2020EU has the most to loseRequires public-private effortMore infotainment effort needed


StrengthsLuxury car leader: most SW is introducedAUTOSAR: Standards leadershipAUTOSAR: SW competency & deploymentDiesel & gasoline engine softwareChassis control software (ABS, ESC)Safety and driver assist softwareSoftware and software tool companiesV2X R&D programs (CVIS & others)

Opportunities EV software advances may make EU

leaders at EV system level Auto apps store leadership ADAS software, systems & apps eCall regulation as way to catch-up

in telematics & connected car apps V2X software & systems (regulation

needed) Autonomous driving (post-2020)

WeaknessesCurrent EV deployment Current EV developmentInfotainment software OS & API standardsInfotainment application softwareTelematics software and deployment

Threats AUTOSAR commodity software

(post-2015) Infotainment commodity software

(post-2015) EV growth negates powertrain SW

market leadership (post-2020)

EU Embedded Software SWOT: Current


EU Auto Embedded Software Problems

Software Comments

Current Problem

Infotainment OSGENIVI: EU Infotainment OS?Infotainment applications

Mostly led by US companiesTo counter QNX & MicrosoftFew EU software leaders

Future Problem

EV softwareEngine management

Time enough to reactImportance to decline

Future Problem

Software commoditizationAUTOSAR software

Software standard impactWorldwide supplier base


Retaining EU Software Leadership

Strategy Why or How

Minimize commodity software impact Continue moving to advanced software

Target new promising opportunities High-value opportunities

Strengthen infotainment software EU can get better position

Invest in EV battery system software Possible EV catch-up technology

Connect software to infrastructure Local presence advantages

Improve software skills Quality and quantity

Train software project managers asap Highest software manpower need


New Software Overview

Applications Comments

Core Auto Software

Petrol & diesel engine controlEV battery system softwareADAS applicationsRemote ECU software upgrades

Fuel efficiency improvementNot established yetACC, LDW, BSDError fix; functional update

Connected Car Software

Telematics software & serviceConnected navigationConnected entertainmentRemote control

eCall; Remote diagnosticsDestination downloadInternet radioDoor unlock, lights on/off

Infrastructure Connected Software

V2V applicationsV2I applicationsITS applications

Collision avoidanceIntersection applicationsTraffic applications

Autonomous Driving

Platoon drivingHighway autonomous driving

Post 2020 applicationPost 2020 application


Future Embedded Software Opportunities

Category Key Information Other InformationConnected Car Application Software

Many applications emergingEU is behind USA in telematicseCall: basis for telematics appsMultiple com links emerging

For car, driver & passengersLink to ECUs become importanteCall is EU chance to catch upECU, driver & infotainment links

ADAS Software

Software intensive systemsMany applications emergingBuilds on driver assist appsEU: ADAS & sensor expertise

Sensor-based systemsMajor life and cost saverWarns or corrects driver errorsLeverage into SW leadership

V2V & V2I Software

Many applications possibleEU’s CVIS R&D project is keyMore EU development neededEarly deployment create expertise

Safety, traffic & fuel-savingsPublic & private cooperationTo complete system architectureSystems & software experience

Autonomous Driving Software

Builds on ADAS & V2X systemsMore autonomous functionsCompute, sensor & SW intensive

Deployment likely after 2020Complex ECUs and softwareLarge software opportunities


Auto Embedded Software: Conclusions

EU software industry is currently well positioned EU has lead the development of auto software standards There are current weaknesses and future issues

Software standards bring many advantages to EU auto industry Re-usable software and more reliable applications Future software development cost savings and other advantages

Software standards are also bringing future risk to EU auto software labor force size

Shifting of software development & design to low-cost regions Due to software commoditization and lack of skilled software personnel This is the main threat to EU embedded auto software industry

Future software opportunities can lower the commoditization threat Application innovation is key to retain lead in high-value auto software

EU Commission need to understand that auto embedded software have a multiplier effect well above its direct economic value

Auto functionality and features are mostly software-defined Software is a major and growing factor in EU auto OEM competitiveness

applied market intelligence auto embedded software: summary european commission project:...

Documents

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