Application to the rice Application to the rice productionproduction

in Southeast Asiain Southeast Asia

Rice Production Research ProgramAgro-meteorology Division

National Institute forAgro-Environmental Sciences

research project:“Modeling rice growth and paddy ecosystem responses to climate change and risk assessment of rice production”Period: FY2006-2010Funded by Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Council Secretariat, MAFF

Our purpose within the framework of MAHASRI activities

•To model rice growth and paddy ecosystem responses to water conditions due to intraseasonal, seasonal, and annual changes of the amount of precipitation brought about by the effect of the Asian monsoon variation.•To develop the method of prediction of rice production on the regional scale in South-Eastern Asia.

Our target area

Northeastern Thailand (mostly rain-fed lowland with large spatial variation in precipitation, soil and hydrological conditions).

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M A M J J A S O N D J

S o w in g

Tra n s p la n t in g

H e a d in g

H a rves t in g

Fre

qu

en

cy

D a te

I r r ig a t i o n

R a in fe d

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M A M J J A S O N D J

S o w in g

Tra n s p la n t in g

H e a d in g

H a rves t in g

Fre

qu

en

cy

D a te

I r r ig a t i o n

R a in fe d

Sowing

Transplanting

Heading

Harvest

Wide sowing and transplanting windows.

vs

Narrow heading and harvest windows.

•90% of paddy field are rainfed•Transplanting date is decided by water condition•highly photosensitive cultivar(RD6, KDML105, etc.) developing according to day length planted

•Frequency distribution of major cultural and developmental events in NE Thailand

cDLDLDF exp1

DFTTGDD baseDF

Because highly photosensitive cultivars are planted, delay in transplanting date results in shorter growth duration, and thereby limits the productivity.

Growth duration to flowering expressed by the growing degree days (GDD) corrected by a daylength factor (DF).

•Transplanting date and heading (flowering) date

•Estimating transplanting date and expansion of transplanting area

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0M a y J u n J u l A u g

10

-da

ys

pre

cip

ita

tio

n

c

um

ula

tiv

e %

of

10

-da

ys

pre

cip

ita

tio

n

% o

f p

ad

dy

fi

eld

tra

ns

pla

nte

d

cum

ula

tiv

e %

of

pa

dd

y

f

ield

s t

ran

sp

lan

ted

D a t e

1 0 0

00

10 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

0

10

2 0

3 0

1 0 0

0M a y J u n J u l A u g

10

-da

ys

pre

cip

ita

tio

n

c

um

ula

tiv

e %

of

10

-da

ys

pre

cip

ita

tio

n

% o

f p

ad

dy

fi

eld

tra

ns

pla

nte

d

cum

ula

tiv

e %

of

pa

dd

y

f

ield

s t

ran

sp

lan

ted

D a t e

1 0 0

0 Cum

ula

tive p

reci

pit

ati

on

fr

om

Jun

e 1

(%

rela

tive t

o

the 3

- m

onth

s to

tal)

Month

Cum

ula

tive %

of

pad

dy fi

eld

s tr

ansp

lante

d

10

-day p

reci

pit

ati

on (

mm

)%

of

paddy fi

eld

s tr

ansp

lante

d

% of paddy fields transplanted follows a similar pattern to cumulative precipitation

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0 .5

1.0

c

um

ula

tiv

e %

of

pa

dd

y f

ield

s t

ran

sp

lan

ted

c u m u l a t i v e p r e c i p i t a t i o n f r o m J u n e 1 , r e l a t i v e t o 3 m o n t h s t o t a l

0 . 7 5

1 . 5 0

0 .0 0 .5 1.00 .0

0 .5

1.0

c

um

ula

tiv

e %

of

pa

dd

y f

ield

s t

ran

sp

lan

ted

c u m u l a t i v e p r e c i p i t a t i o n f r o m J u n e 1 , r e l a t i v e t o 3 m o n t h s t o t a l

0 . 7 5

1 . 5 0

Cum

ula

tive r

ati

o

of

padd

y fi

eld

s tr

ansp

lan

ted

Cumulative precipitation from June 1 normalized by the 3-months total

(from June-August)

•model description

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J u n

J u n

J u l

J u l

A u g

A u g

Gra

in y

ield

e

sti

ma

ted

(g

m-2

) P

lan

ted

are

a

es

tim

ate

d (

%)

T r a n s p l a n t i n g d a te

D a t e

1 9 8 0

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0

1 9 8 0

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0

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10 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

0

5 0

10 0

J u n

J u n

J u l

J u l

A u g

A u g

Gra

in y

ield

e

sti

ma

ted

(g

m-2

) P

lan

ted

are

a

es

tim

ate

d (

%)

T r a n s p l a n t i n g d a te

D a t e

1 9 8 0

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0

1 9 8 0

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0

Yi= Biomass x HI

Biomass=WUE x ∑Tr

Tr = FCC x Ep

Yi; yeld obtained at specific transplanting date (i)

HI; harvest indexWUE; water use efficiencyTr; transpirationEp; potential evapotranspiration (Pe

nman-Monteith method)FCC; fraction of canopy cover as a f

unction of N input and GDD (growing degree day)

Finally, regional yield YR is obtained as;

)( YipYR iPi; planted area obtained at specific transplanting date (i)

•Simulated and actual grain yields of sixteen provinces in Northeast Thailand between 1976 and 2000

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15 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0

Gra

in y

ield

(g

m-2

)

N o n g K h a i

L o e i

U d o n T h a n i

S a k o n N a k h o n

R M S E = 1 6 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 1 0 2 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 3 2 . 7 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 1 . 1 g ･ m - 2

Y e a r

N a k h o n P h a n o m

K h o n K a e n

K a l a s i n

M a h a S a r a k h a m

R M S E = 2 2 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 1 9 . 8 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 8 . 1 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 1 . 7 g ･ m - 2

R o i E t

C h a i y a p h u m

N a k h o n R a tc h a s i m a

B u r i R a m

R M S E = 2 6 . 8 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 4 0 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 5 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 8 . 8 g ･ m - 2

S u r i n

S i S a K e t

U b o n R a tc h a s i m a

Y a s o th o n

R M S E = 3 1 . 1 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 9 . 9 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 3 3 . 7 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 4 . 1 g ･ m - 2

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15 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

5 0

15 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

5 0

15 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 05 0

15 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0

Gra

in y

ield

(g

m-2

)

N o n g K h a i

L o e i

U d o n T h a n i

S a k o n N a k h o n

R M S E = 1 6 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 1 0 2 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 3 2 . 7 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 1 . 1 g ･ m - 2

Y e a r

N a k h o n P h a n o m

K h o n K a e n

K a l a s i n

M a h a S a r a k h a m

R M S E = 2 2 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 1 9 . 8 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 8 . 1 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 1 . 7 g ･ m - 2

R o i E t

C h a i y a p h u m

N a k h o n R a tc h a s i m a

B u r i R a m

R M S E = 2 6 . 8 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 4 0 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 5 . 4 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 8 . 8 g ･ m - 2

S u r i n

S i S a K e t

U b o n R a tc h a s i m a

Y a s o th o n

R M S E = 3 1 . 1 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 9 . 9 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 3 3 . 7 g ･ m - 2

R M S E = 2 4 . 1 g ･ m - 2

•Actual yields (in white circle) were from Agricultural Statistics in Thailand.•Weather data were from The Climate Resource Unit dataset.

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5

6

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8

9

~

P re c ip i ta t i o n a m o u n ts f r o m J u n e to A u g u s t (m m )

Mo

nth

of

Tra

ns

pla

nti

ng

4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 10 0 0 110 0

5

6

7

8

9

~

P re c ip i ta t i o n a m o u n ts f r o m J u n e to A u g u s t (m m )

Mo

nth

of

Tra

ns

pla

nti

ng

Tra

nsp

lan

tin

g d

ate

3-month cumulative precipitationfrom June to August

Sep.

Aug.

Jul.

Jun.

May.

•Large spatial variation exists in Northeastern Thailand.•Large variation in transplanting date exists even at the same precipitation level.

•Transplanting date vs 3-month cumulative precipitation

Next step

Latitude 14N°-19NLongitude 100E-106E

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A preliminary attempt to estimate submerged (water saturated) area by the simple water balance model (Ishigooka unpublished)

Our experimental filed established in Khon Kaen (16o27’44.30”N, 102o32’22.33”E)to make clear the water condition in paddy field(2004.11.)

wet season

dry season

Meteorological observation (lower)air temperature and humiditysolar radiation and precipitation soil temperature (6 depth)wind direction and speed

Hydrological observation (lower, middle, and upper paddy)Water tableWater content in soilmiddle

upper

lower

Khon Kaen CityObservation site

Thank youfor your attention!!