application of food defense software tools for the ......western asia western europe polynesia...

Application of Food Defense Software

Tools for the Purposes of Informing

Intervention Strategies

20/5/2015

Jessica Cox CTRA Program Manager Chemical Security Analysis Center Science and Technology Directorate

Presentation Overview

Presentation Objectives

Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) Overview

Risk Perception and Risk Reality

•Natural Hazard Example

• Interactive Risk Visualization Tool Example

Quantitatively Assessing Options Using Software-Based Tools

•Conceptual Approach Overview

•Results Generation and Sanitization

•Results

Summary

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•Results

Summary

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Provide a brief overview of the Chemical

Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA)

Discuss how perception can skew

assessments of risk and demonstrate a

risk visualization tool that provides an

interactive means of viewing and

analyzing multidimensional risk

Demonstrate how software-based tools

can be used to inform mitigation

strategies using food safety and defense

as an example

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•Results

Summary

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CTRA Overview (1/2)

The Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment (CTRA) is a DHS CSAC program that estimates injury, fatality, and economic risk of a wide array of chemical terrorism attack scenarios against the US homeland and assists in prioritizing mitigation and risk-reduction strategies.

The CTRA is a quantitative, end-to-end assessments focused on a broad range of risks incorporating known hazards, emerging technologies, intelligence and law enforcement community input, and available countermeasures, to evaluate the acute risk to human health due to a chemical terrorism attack on the U.S. Homeland.

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Chemical Security Analysis Center. 2012

Chemical Terrorism Risk Assessment;

12-006; CSAC; 31 July, 2012.

CTRA Overview (2/2)

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Natural Hazard Example

Interactive Risk Visualization Tool Example




•Results

Summary

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Assessing Risk and Risk Perception

Assessing risk in situations of

uncertainty can be challenging

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Individual’s (and Organization’s!)

assessment of risks is often

skewed by perception

•What was particularly recently

•What was particularly sensational

•What was particularly impactful

•What is getting attention/talk right

now

Assessing Risk and Risk Perception:

Natural Disaster Example

As an example of risk perception, consider natural

disaster risk

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Natural disasters data from the EM-DAT International

Disaster Database [http://www.emdat.be]

•Hierarchical categorical data used included disaster type,

region, and year from 1900 to 2014 excluding events that had

zero people affected or zero deaths.

Risk Perception: Natural Disasters What?

Which of these Natural Disaster Types represents the highest

fatality risk, worldwide from the 1900s through present?

Earthquake (Seismic Activity)

Miscellaneous Accident

Drought

Volcano

Epidemic

Transport Accident

Industrial Accident

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Storm

Flood

Mass Movement Wet

Extreme Temperature

Wildfire

Mass Movement Dry

Risk Perception: Natural Disasters Where?

Which of these Regions of the world possessed the highest fatality risk across all disaster types from the 1900s through present?

Southern Europe Western Africa Eastern Africa Central America Caribbean South America Eastern Asia Southern Africa South-Eastern Asia Northern Europe Middle Africa

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Melanesia

Southern Asia

Central Asia

Eastern Europe

Northern America

Northern Africa

Western Asia

Western Europe

Polynesia

Australia And New Zealand

Russian Federation

Micronesia

Risk Perception: Natural Disasters When?

Which of these Timeframes is characterized by the highest fatality risk across all disaster types and regions of the world?

1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s

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1990s

2000s

2010s


Natural Disaster (Perception) Risks

Disaster type with the highest risk worldwide from the

1900s to present: _______________

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Region of the world with the highest risk of disaster

from the 1900s to present: _______________

Decade with the highest risk of disaster: ___________


Natural Disaster (Actual) Risks

Disaster type with the highest risk worldwide from the

1900s to present: Drought (56% of fatality risk)

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Region of the world with the highest risk of disaster from the 1900s

to present: Southeastern Asia (37% of fatality risk)

Decade with the highest risk of disaster: 1920s (26% of

fatality risk)

DHS Risk Analysis Tools:

RiViT

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Chemical Security

Analysis Center (CSAC) has developed an interactive Risk

Visualization Tool (RiViT) to allow analyst the ability to view the

combination of frequency, consequences, and risk in one easy to

digest interactive application that accurately conveys the

complexities of the data while resonating with stakeholders such

as policy makers improves communication and increases the use

of the CTRA

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RiViT Risk Analysis Tool (Video)

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Quantitatively Assessing Options Using Software-Based

Tools

Conceptual Approach Overview

Results Generation and Sanitization

Results

Summary

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Conceptual Approach Road Map

Evaluate post-event

mitigation strategies using a

subset of food scenario-

chemical contaminant pairs to

represent all possible

chemical food defense

scenarios

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10 Food Clusters Represented by 10

Food-Contamination Point Scenarios

9 Toxidromes Represented

by 9 Chemicals

5 Post-Event Mitigation Strategies




by 9 Chemicals



The 10 food clusters in the 2012

CTRA, represented by 10 exemplar

food scenarios, were selected to

represent the variety of foods

consumed in the US.

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Food Clusters

Ready-to-eat (RTE), primary component foods

Assembled companion dishes

Produce

Packaged, processed, cold chain ready-to-eat (RTE)

Multi-component assembled foods, not thermally processed in the home

Home ingredients

Main Dishes, single component foods

Industrial ingredients

Multi-component assembled foods, thermally processed in the home

Beverages

Exemplars foods were chosen by food

SMEs to represent a cluster based on

average serving size and market penetration




by 9 Chemicals



Toxidromes from the 2012 CTRA,

which can be represented by

exemplar chemicals, were selected

to represent the wide variety of

chemicals that could be involved in

a terrorist attack on the US

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Chemicals were chosen by analysts

to represent toxidromes based on

average impact (number of injuries)

Toxidrome

Blood

Cholinergic (CWA)

Cholinergic (Other)

Convulsant

Hemolytic / Metabolic

Opioid

Pulmonary (Lower)

Pulmonary (Upper)

Vesicant




by 9 Chemicals



This study then examined the

impact of 5 post-event mitigation

strategies, specifically:

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Post-Event Mitigation Strategies

Baseline

Improved Investigation

Improved Recall Dissemination

Improved Compliance

All Improvements (All of the Above)

Post-Event Mitigation Options (1/4)

Improved Investigation • Concept: What if one could more quickly identify the contaminated food and contaminant involved?

• Parameters Adjusted: Dimensionless recall investigation parameter space was adjusted to reflect the most rapid investigations from the 2012 CTRA dataset

• Dimensionless Time: Investigation Time (tinv) divided by the average Time to Symptom Onset (tTSO,ave)

• Dimensionless Number of Injuries/Illnesses: Number of Injuries/Illness (Ninjured/ill) divided by the Baseline Number Similar Injuries/Illnesses (NBaseline)

• Examples of How this Could Be Achieved:

• Improved medical diagnostics

• Targeted training of medical personnel (symptom recognition)

• Integrated public health data systems that aid recognition of illness/injury clusters

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Improved Recall Dissemination

• Concept: What if one could more quickly and more widely

disseminate an intervention (e.g., a recall or public health warning)?

• Parameters Adjusted: Information diffusion associated with

interventions (recall) was adjusted to represent the fastest known

instance of information diffusion (i.e., 9/11 attacks) and the widest

possible dissemination (all people)

• Information Diffusion Rate

• Ultimate Fraction Informed

• Examples of How this Could Be Achieved:

• Application of social media to communicating interventions

• Targeted intervention communication systems (e.g., integration with

retail consumer frequent shopper databases)

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Improved Compliance

•Concept: What if one could persuade consumers and retailers

to better comply with interventions?

•Parameters Adjusted: Recall compliance was adjusted to the

highest possible rate (100%)

• Retailer Compliance

• Consumer Compliance

•Examples of How this Could Be Achieved:

• Application of social media to communicating interventions

• Targeted intervention communication systems (e.g., integration

with retail consumer frequent shopper databases)

• Consumer education programs targeting compliance

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All Improvements

•Description: Combination of Improved

Investigation, Improved Recall Dissemination, and

Improved Compliance

Baseline

•Description: The best estimate of the potential

impact of a foodborne chemical terrorism attack

(2012 CTRA)

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Baseline Improved InvestigationImproved Recall Dissemination Improved ComplianceAll Improvements

Example Legend

Results Generation

For each of the 450 combinations of 10 exemplar food scenarios,

9 exemplar chemicals, and 5 post-event mitigation strategy

options, an ensemble of 10,000 simulations were performed using

the CTRA Tool

•Average runtime of each ensemble was approximately 30s

Results tables for each ensemble were saved to excel,

summarized using plots and statistics, and analyzed to identify

relevant trends

Total time to generate the results and create this presentation was

approximately 2 weeks

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CTRA Consequence Tool (Video)

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Results Sanitization

To prevent revealing any potential vulnerability or potentially

aiding the planning of a terrorist attack, results were normalized

for each food-chemical combination by the baseline value

The values created have been termed Impact as they are

generally indicative of consequences but are not specifically

consequences

The Impact metric then provides a quantitative evaluation of

various post-event mitigation options that can be presented in an

open forum

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Example Results

Sets of bar plots were created in Excel® for each food showing

the average estimated impact for each toxidrome and post-event

mitigation option

•Sets of bar plots were made for both life-threatening impact

and total public health impact (all lethal and non-lethal

injuries)

Given the excitement created by flipping through 20 slides

containing approximately 900 bars worth of information, an

example of the results will be displayed and then the results of

further analysis will be presented today

• If you are interested in the more detailed set of bar plots,

please contact Jessica Cox of CSAC at

[email protected]

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Beverages

Impact Analysis

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Post-Event Mitigation Options

Improved Compliance was identified as the most effective post-

mitigation option examined

• Further studies could be done to quantify the benefits of incremental

improvements in compliance

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Intervention (Recall) Trends

Model results reflect intuitive trends with respect to public health

interventions as a function of human health consequences

• Contamination scenarios with increasing human health consequences result

in earlier interventions (recalls); however significant variability exists

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Conceptual Approach Overview

Results Generation and Sanitization

Results

Summary

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Summary

The Department of Homeland Security is committed to protecting

the US Homeland through informing risk-based decisions

• The risk of CBRN terrorism includes a wide range of threat scenarios

and is a complex challenge

Interactive tools, such as RiViT, that allow both analysts and

policy makers to better digest multi-faceted results promote a

better understanding of the risks facing the nation

Analytical tools, such as the CTRA Consequence Tool, that allow

analysts to explore the potential impact of post-event mitigation

strategies and inform prioritized decision making

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