appliances: designs and standards for...
TRANSCRIPT
Appliances:Designs and Standards
for SustainabilityJames E. McMahon, Ph.D.
Department Head, Energy AnalysisLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
March 1, 2008At UC Berkeley
INSTITUTIONAL INTRODUCTION
• LBNL is the first DOE national laboratory (1931)—Research in all scientific disciplines; team-based—Current focus on solving the energy/carbon problem—Ca 3600 persons, $400M/a
• Environmental Energy Technologies Division(EETD) started in 1973—Energy, technologies and analysis of systems/policies—End-use orientation, especially buildings, industry, and
electricity sectors—Ca 400 persons, $50M/a
• Energy Analysis Department (EAD) since 1973—Ca 120 persons, $20M/a
OUTLINE• Overview of buildings sector
– Energy use, GHG emissions– Expenditures– End uses (appliances, equipment and lighting)
• Time trends (US buildings’ energy, appliance efficiencies)
• Potential for energy efficiency technology in buildings– Energy savings– Costs of conserved energy
• Market effects of policies– Energy labels and standards– Public and private R&D– Private investment (“Clean Tech”)– California AB32– National (and global) carbon policy
Buildings and expenditures
• Buildings include:– Residential: 116 million households in 2007– Commercial: 77 billion square feet
• Office, retail, education, warehouse, lodging, service, publicassembly, health care, food
• Expenditures: 70 % of construction, 40% of energy– New construction: $780 B/yr (>7 million employees)– Renovation: $390 B/yr (>1 million contractors)– Energy: $370 B/yr
Total End-Use Energy Consumption1949 – 2004
Combined Res/ComBuildings in 2007:
~ 40 Quads (of 100)
~ $370B/yr forenergy
~ 630 MTC (of 1623)emitted
Energy Consumption byU.S. Buildings
• 71% of U.S. electricity consumption• 54% of U.S. natural gas consumption• 39% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions
.U.S. buildings are responsible for more CO2emissions than any country in the world
except China & US
Buildings’ Energy Consumption by End UseBuildings consume 39% of total U.S. primary energy
• 71% of electricity and 54% of natural gas
U.S. CO2 EmissionsBy Sector By End Use
U.S
. CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (M
t CO
2)
Efficiency contributed to large decrease in energy intensity(E/GDP) after 1973 (70Q avoided vs 25Q new supply)
1973 20051949
Economic Impacts of Energy R&DEconomic Impacts of Energy R&D and Regulations and Regulations
Energy efficiency R&D hasyielded a net benefit tothe US economy
Economic Benefits fromenergy efficiencystandards were thelargest from a sample ofUSDOE EnergyEfficiency programs
Based on National Research Council,2001. “Energy Research at DOE:Was It Worth It?”
C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000Year
Inde
x (1
972
= 10
0)
Effective Dates of National Standards
=
Effective Dates of State Standards
=
Refrigerators
Central A/C
Gas Furnaces
Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003Summer Study, www.eceee.org
75%
60%
25%
US New Refrigerator kWh/year Declined 74%Annual Drop from 1974 to 2001 = 5% Per Year
2000 25
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1947
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2001
Ave
rage
Ene
rgy
Use
per
Uni
t Sol
d (k
Wh
per y
ear)
0
5
10
15
20
Ref
riger
ator
vol
ume
(cub
ic fe
et)
Energy Use per Unit
Refrigerator Size (cubic feet)
1978 Cal Standard
1990 Federal Standard
1987 Cal Standard
1980 Cal Standard
1993 Federal Standard
2001 FederalStandard
1947 1974 2001
United States Refrigerator Use v. Time
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1947
1949
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1997
1999
2001
Av
era
ge
Ee
rng
y U
se
pe
r U
nit
So
ld (
kW
h p
er
ye
ar)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Re
frig
era
tor
vo
lum
e (
cu
bic
fe
et)
Energy Use per Unit
Refrigerator Size
(cubic feet)
Refrigerator Price in 1983 Dollars
$ 1,270
$ 462
Real Prices dropped while efficiency increased
Low-Hanging Energy-Efficiency is a Renewable Resource
-27% -30%
Updated 2001 standardsexceeded the maximumtechnologically feasiblelevel of a few yearsearlier.
The maximumtechnology kWh/a inrefrigerators changed14% in 6 years (2.5%/a)from 495 kWh/a (1989) to 425 kWh/a (1995)
Average standards, % change, effective date:690 kWh/a, -27%, 1993475 kWh/a, -30%, 2001
Why Is this Example Important?• Unit energy consumption per new refrigerator
decreased at average rate of 5%/year for 27 years
• Technology and policy together achieved this result
• Lessons learned can be applied to other energytechnologies and services
10
20
30
1980 2000 2020
MTC•Absolute amount of energyconsumption – and carbon dioxideemissions – for householdrefrigeration decreased
National Estimates ofCost-Effective Energy Efficiency
• California’s Water-Energy Relationship, 2005 found newpotential electricity savings from water conservation– Equivalent to current three-year plan for CA utilities– Est. cost per kWh about 50% lower than electric plan
American Solar Energy Society - 200723% Reduction by2025 compared toBAU
Five National Labs – Scenario for a CleanEnergy Future – 2000
20% Reduction by2020-2025 comparedto BAU
SourceEstimate
NEW OPPORTUNITY !
Potential 19% National Lighting Savings
16 million24120 BkWh$10 billionAll MeasuresTotal
2.7 million420 BkWh$1.5 billion
Replace Mercury lamps withmodern HIDsRoadways
1.3 million210 BkWh$750 million
Replace PAR/R-lamps withCeramic Metal HalideStores
7.3 million1155 BkWh$4 billion
Replace Incandescent Bulbswith Energy-Efficient LampsHomes
4.7 million735 BkWh$2.6 billion
Replace T-12 magnetic withcontrolled T-8 electronicOffices
EquivalentCars Removed
CarbonReduction(MMTCe)
EstimatedEnergy/Cost
SavingsLighting Upgrade MeasureSector
Modernizing Our Nation’s Lighting
19% reduction
Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is Lower than ElectricityPrice for Many Energy Efficiency Increases
(Commercial, 2010)
Source: National Commission on Energy Policy, 2004
3-P
hase
, Sin
gle
Pac
kage
Air-
Sou
rce
AC
(<65
BTu
)
Cen
tral A
ir-S
ourc
e A
C
(65
to 1
35 B
tu)
Cen
tral W
ater
-Sou
rce
HP
(6
5 to
135
Btu
)
Exh
aust
Fan
for A
ir D
istri
butio
n (0
.5 H
P)
Cen
tral S
tatio
n A
HU
for A
irD
istri
butio
n (1
0 H
P)
Fluo
resc
ent L
amp/
Bal
last
HID
-Low
Bay
HID
-Hig
h B
ay
Ref
riger
atio
n -
Sup
erm
arke
t Uni
ts
Ice
Mac
hine
Wal
k-in
Coo
ler
Per
sona
l Com
pute
r an
d M
onito
r
01
23
45
67
89
10
¢/kW
h
CCEElectricity Price
HVAC
VENT LIGHTINGREFRIG
ELECC
entra
l Air-
Sou
rce
AC
(1
35 to
240
Btu
)
0
3
6
9
Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE) is Lower Than ElectricityPrice for Many Energy Efficiency Increases (Residential, 2010)
Roo
m a
irco
nditi
oner
Ref
riger
ator
Torc
hier
e
Dis
hwas
her
Cei
ling
fan
Poo
l pum
p
Ele
ctro
nics
02
46
810
¢/kW
h
CCEElectricity Price
Source: National Commission on Energy Policy, 2004
0
4
8
EE reduces carbon and saves money
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2007
Efficiency and carbon-neutral supply are complements
Current Best Practices Can ReduceEmissions from New Buildings by at
Least 70% for Homes and 60% for Offices• DOE’s Building America has a goal of
achieving 70% energy consumption reductionby 2020 compared to code requirements
• Leadership in Energy & EnvironmentalDesign (LEED) certifies energy reductions ofup to 60% for new commercial buildings,compared to code requirements
California plans to achieve zero net energy for newResidential in 2020, Commercial in 2030
Whole Building Approach (with PV) Can SaveMore Than Just Equipment Improvements• NREL results show it is possible today to build a
2592 ft2 home in Sacramento at incrementalcost about 5% above code to achieve:– zero peak cooling demand– reduce annual heating energy 70%– reduce annual cooling energy by 60% and– reduce total source energy use by 60%
Source: Ren Anderson, C Christensen, S Horowitz, “Program Design Analysis usingBEopt Building Energy Optimization Software: Defining a Technology PathwayLeading to New Homes with Zero Peak Cooling Demand” (Preprint ConferencePaper NREL/CP-550-39827), May 2006
Sizematters
Additional Savings from Systems• Efficient data centers (electricity and cooling)• Digital networks: opportunities to maximize
comfort and utility while minimizing energy
• Combined heat and power can improveefficiency and reduce peak
• Neighborhood systems (e.g., district heating)• Micro-grids provide local power• Demand response incorporates price signals
California Policies affecting EE• CEC - Research, Building codes,
Standards• CPUC – regulate utilities and rates
– PRIORITY: Efficiency, demand response,renewables, clean fossil
– “Big, Bold” utility programs (new residential,new commercial, HVAC)
– Industrial, existing commercial, existingresidential
• CARB – implementing AB32
Federal Policies affecting EE• Labels
– EnergyGuide– Energy Star
• Mandatory Energy Performance Standards(MEPS)– US– Others (China, Australia, EU, Canada, Mexico)
• Tax credits– To manufacturers– To consumers
• (FUTURE) GHG cap-and-trade or taxes/fees
R&D investment in US buildingssector has been low
• Private “Clean Tech” investing is increasing– $5.18 B in 2007, up from $3.6B in 2006
• energy efficiency• water efficiency• renewable energy
• Annualized returns in 2007– CTIUS 42.9%, NASDAQ 10.6%, S&P 500 5.5%– Low-hanging fruit
• Innovation will increase
Increasing Financial and Political Pressure for EE
• GHG markets ($30 B in 2006)– EU, Kyoto– Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) (voluntary)
• Global GHG negotiations – Kyoto, Bali• US legislation: Draft energy bills
• E.g., Lieberman-Warner: cap and trade
• States– RGGI 2009– CA 2012– Western Climate Initiative– others
Global Potential of Energy Efficiency Standards andLabeling Programs (DRAFT)
• Across all countries, potential to reduce
M. McNeil, V. Letschert, S. de la Rue du Can, LBNL- personal communication, February 27, 2008Work in progress for Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Programs (CLASP)
3%8%From fuels
0.4(3.6)
1.5(11)
CO2 Gt 2030(cumulative)
11%25%Fromelectricity
CommercialResidentialGHGEmissions
Equivalent to 25% of IPCC “zero cost” potential in 2020, 33% in 2030.The rest can be achieved with building codes, utility programs, incentives, etc.
“Greening the Capitol”
Goal: Reduce the impact of operations ofthe Capitol complex to “carbon neutral”
AN EXAMPLE OF ONE BUILDING
Conclusions• Energy efficiency (EE) has proven itself for
thirty years– Technologically feasible– Economically justified
• Public and private investment will increase– Clean tech venture capital investments are up– EE is fastest, most cost-effective option to reduce
carbon emissions
• Low-hanging energy efficiency is a renewableresource
• American Solar Energy Society, 2007. “Tackling ClimateChange in the U.S.”
• Gallagher, K.S., J.P. Holdren, and A.D. Sagar, “Energy-Technology Innovation” in Ann. Rev. Environ. Resour.2006, 31: 193-237
• Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient andClean-Energy Technologies, 2000. “Scenarios for aClean Energy Future”
• McKinsey Global Institute, 2007. “Curbing Global EnergyDemand Growth: The Energy Productivity Opportunity”
• National Research Council, 2001. “Energy Research atDOE: Was It Worth It?”
Suggested Reading
C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)
(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
19
60
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08
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change
US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%
Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%
2005 Differences
= 5,300kWh/yr
= $165/capita