appendix f1: regional air quality study report

GO Rail Network Electrification Project Final Environmental Project Report Addendum

APPENDIX F1: Regional Air Quality Study Report

Contract: QBS-2014-IEP-002

Final Regional Air Quality Study

GO Rail Network Electrification Project

18-May-2021

Prepared by:

Rev 00 18-May-2021

Authorization

XAlain Carriere

Senior Project Manager

XAmber Saltarelli

Project Manager

XAndy Gillespie

Program Manager

REVISION HISTORY

Revision No. Date Purpose of Submittal Comments

00 18-May-2020 Final Submission to Metrolinx N/A

This submission was completed and reviewed in accordance with the Quality Assurance Process for this project.

KPrice

Image

KPrice

Image

i Rev 00 18-May-2021

Executive Summary

Metrolinx and Hydro One (as co-proponents) jointly completed the GO Rail Network Electrification Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP) in 2017 to convert six Metrolinx-owned Rail Corridors from diesel to electric propulsion. Once electrification is implemented, the system will operate with a mixed fleet of diesel and electric trains, as not all tracks on all corridors will be electrified. Metrolinx currently has a fleet of 91 diesel locomotives, of which 17 are relatively new or recently refurbished models that comply with the most stringent emission limits (Tier 4), while the remainder cover a range of ages and emission levels (Tier 0 to Tier 3).

Since 2017, Metrolinx has developed a more detailed design and schedule for how increased passenger service will be delivered for the GO Rail Expansion Program in the future, involving further infrastructure and rail traffic changes. These proposed changes require a reassessment of potential air quality impacts as part of an addendum to the 2017 Electrification EPR.

RWDI was retained to complete an air quality impact assessment for the GO Rail Network to support the addendum to the 2017 Electrification EPR. The objective of this study was to assess air quality effects and how they will change from existing operations (2015) to the proposed future operations. The assessment of future operations was based on Metrolinx’s most recent projected future train service schedule established for the year 2037.

This report addresses the regional air quality impacts from the implementation of the GO Rail Expansion Program. The objective of this study is to assess how emissions from Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), and other contaminants will change from existing operations to the proposed future operations on a network-wide scale. Metrolinx also retained RWDI to conduct assessments of air quality effects at a local scale throughout the relevant portions of the network. The latter work is reported in a separate report for each corridor.

Two scenarios were analyzed, consisting of the baseline emissions from rail activity in 2015, and future emissions after the implementation of the Electrification project. The future emissions scenario was further divided into three electricity generation sub-scenarios with varying degrees of contribution from fossil fuels to electricity generation. Air contaminants considered in the study were the main ones associated with diesel combustion: Carbon Monoxide (CO), Nitrogen Oxides (NOX), Particulate Matter (PM2.5), and Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e).

With the proposed future operations emissions of criteria air contaminants NOX and PM2.5 are predicted to be lower than in the baseline scenario (2015) in the average electricity generation scenario. PM2.5 and NOx emissions are expected to be slightly higher in the capacity generation scenario. In the extreme scenario of 100% fossil-fuel-based electricity generation, emissions from all contaminants are expected to increase when compared to the baseline. Emissions of CO and CO2e will increase compared to the baseline, depending on the electricity generation scenario. The projected increase in train-kilometers travelled between Scenarios 1 and 2 is significantly higher than the increase in pollutant and CO2e emissions in all Electrification Scenarios. In all cases, the impact on province-wide emissions of air contaminants is small (<1%).

ii Rev 00 18-May-2021

Table of Contents

Documents............................................................................................................................................... iv

Glossary of Terms ..................................................................................................................................... v

Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................... vi

1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Project Scope ................................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 Study Area .................................................................................................................................... 4

2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................................... 5

2.1 Scenario 1 (pre-project) ................................................................................................................. 5

2.2 Scenario 2 (post-project) ............................................................................................................... 6

3 Results .............................................................................................................................................. 8

4 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 13

TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTINUED

iii Rev 00 18-May-2021

Tables

TABLE 1: Annual Emissions from Scenario 1 (2015 Rail Activity) in tonnes/year

TABLE 2: Annual Emissions from Scenario 2 (2037 Rail Activity) in tonnes/year

TABLE 3: Percent Change in Train-Kilometers Travelled and Pollutant Emissions between

Scenario 1 And Scenario 2

TABLE 4: Percent Change in Annual Emissions after Electrification, Relative to Ontario’s

Total Rail Emissions


Total Mobile Source Emissions


Total Emissions from All Sources

Figures

FIGURE 1: Current Metrolinx Corridors

FIGURE 2: Study Area

FIGURE 3: Comparison of CO2e emissions from Scenario 1 and Scenario 2

FIGURE 4: Comparison of NOX emissions from Scenario 1 and Scenario 2

FIGURE 5: Comparison of CO emissions from Scenario 1 and Scenario 2

FIGURE 6: Comparison of PM2.5 emissions from Scenario 1 and Scenario 2

Appendices

APPENDIX A: Diesel Emission Estimation for Scenario 1

APPENDIX B: Diesel Emission Estimation for Scenario 2

APPENDIX C: Electric Emission Estimation for Scenario 2

APPENDIX D: Ontario Energy Report

APPENDIX E: Estimation of Annual Energy Consumption by Electric Trains

GO Rail Network Electrification Project Final Regional Air Quality Study

iv Rev 00 18-May-2021

Documents

Title Reference

Gannet Fleming Canada ULC: Estimation on Annual Energy Consumption by Electric Trains, 2016

n/a

Government of Canada: Air Pollutants Emission Inventory online search, 2017

https://pollution-waste.canada.ca/air-emission-inventory

Government of Canada: Greenhouse gas emissions by province and territory, 2017

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/greenhouse-gas-emissions.html

Metrolinx: GO Rail Network Electrification EPR, 2017 http://www.metrolinx.com/en/electrification/electric.aspx

Metrolinx Work Plan: ON Corridor Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Study, 2019

n/a

Natural Resources Canada: Transportation Sector, Ontario, GHG Emissions by Energy Source, 2016

http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/showTable.cfm?type=CP&sector=tran&juris=on&rn=4&page=0

Natural Resources Canada: Transportation Sector, Ontario, Rail Transportation Secondary Use and GHG Emissions, 2016

http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/showTable.cfm?type=CP&sector=tran&juris=on&rn=16&page=0

Ontario Energy Board and IESO: Ontario Energy Report Q1 2019, 2019 https://www.ontarioenergyreport.ca/index.php

Railway Association of Canada: Locomotive Emissions Monitoring Program 2012, 2012

https://www.railcan.ca/resources/

Railway Association of Canada: Locomotive Emissions Monitoring Program 2016, 2016

https://www.railcan.ca/resources/

US EPA: AP-42, Vol.1, 3.1: Stationary Gas Turbines, 2000 https://www3.epa.gov/ttnchie1/ap42/ch03/final/c03s01.pdf

US EPA: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder; Republication; Final Rule, 2008

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2008-06-30/pdf/R8-7999.pdf

US EPA: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Nonroad Diesel Engines; Final Rule, 1998

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-1998-10-23/pdf/98-24836.pdf

US EPA: Control of Emissions of Air Pollution from Nonroad Diesel Engines and Fuel; Final Rule, 2004


US EPA: Emission Factors for Locomotives, 2009 https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi/P100500B.PDF?Dockey=P100500B.PDF

US EPA: Emission Standards for Locomotives and Locomotive Engines; Final Rule, 1998



v Rev 00 18-May-2021

Glossary of Terms

Word Definition

Brake horsepower The available power of an engine.

Car A railroad car is a vehicle used for the carrying of cargo or passengers on a rail transport system.

“Credible worst-case scenario” Future rail service levels, schedules and technologies expected to capture worst-case effects from sound and vibration; the basis for the EA amendment.

Criteria Air Contaminant Contaminants usually associated with rail/road emissions and for which there are clear criteria established provincially or federally.

Consist The composition of a train, including type and number of locomotives and number of cars.

CO2e A measure used to assess the impact of various greenhouse gases. The amount of each greenhouse gas is converted to the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide that would have the same global warming potential.

Carbon Monoxide A colourless and odourless gas and a by-product of combustion.

Combustion The chemical process where a substance reacts with oxygen to release energy.

Emission Factors A value that relates the quantity of a pollutant released to the atmosphere with an activity associated with the release of that pollutant.

Engine Throttle A means of controlling an engine's power by regulating the amount of fuel or air entering the engine.

Existing Operations Scenario 1 (see below)

Fossil Fuels A group of combustible materials that have been formed from decayed plants and animals. These materials are often used as fuel by combusting them to release energy. Fossil fuels include oil, coal, and natural gas.

Future Operations Scenario 2 (see below)

Greenhouse Gases Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere

HEP Unit The electrical power distribution system that provides lighting and heating/cooling.

Locomotive Rail transport vehicle that provides the motive power for a train

Megawatt-hour A megawatt is a unit for measuring power that is equivalent to one million watts of electricity used continuously for an hour

Nitrogen Oxides A group of gaseous substances that are by-products of combustion, including nitrogen oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2).

Non-Revenue Trains GO and VIA train movements that do not carry passengers. These movements typically occur between layovers or maintenance facilities and GO Stations.

Particulate Matter Microscopic solid or liquid particles that can become airborne.

Scenario 1 (Pre-project) The baseline scenario of rail operations. In this study, the baseline scenario is the year 2015.

Scenario 2 (Post-project) The scenario following the implementation of the future infrastructure and rail operations.

Railway Safety Act The main legislation that gives Transport Canada responsibility for overseeing rail safety

Regenerative Braking A method of braking which extracts the energy from the process such that it can be stored and reused later.

Revenue Trains GO or VIA train movements that carry passengers between Stations. These trains do not stop at layovers or maintenance facilities.


vi Rev 00 18-May-2021

Abbreviations

Acronym or Abbreviation

Definition

bhp Brake horsepower

CAC Criteria Air Contaminant

CO Carbon Monoxide

CO2e Carbon Dioxide Equivalent

EA Environmental Assessment

EPR Environmental Project Report

ESR Environmental Study Report

g Grams

GHG Greenhouse Gas

GIS Geographic Information System

GPS Global Positioning System

HEP Head End Power

hr Hour

NOX Nitrogen Oxides

PM2.5 Particulate Matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less

TPAP Transit Project Assessment Process

TSS1 Train Service Schedule (version for credible worst-case scenario)

US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency


1 Rev 00 18-May-2021

1 Introduction

Metrolinx and Hydro One (as co-proponents) jointly completed the GO Rail Network Electrification Transit Project Assessment Process (TPAP) in 2017 to convert six Metrolinx-owned Rail Corridors from diesel to electric propulsion. Once electrification is implemented, the system will operate with a mixed fleet of diesel and electric trains, as not all tracks on all corridors will be electrified. Metrolinx currently has a fleet of 91 diesel locomotives, of which 17 are relatively new or recently refurbished models that comply with the most stringent emission limits (Tier 4), while the remainder cover a range of ages and emission levels (Tier 0 to Tier 3). The 2017 Environmental Project Report (EPR) assessed the environmental effects associated with:

• The increase in rail traffic associated with the conversion from diesel to electric propulsion;

• Infrastructure improvements; and

• Installation of proposed traction power supply and power distribution components.

The TPAP received a Notice to Proceed and Metrolinx issued a Statement of Completion in December 2017. Since December 2017, Metrolinx developed a reference concept design that details how increased passenger service will be delivered for the GO Rail Expansion Program in the future. This work led to further proposed changes to rail infrastructure and a revised future train service schedule (presented in Appendix A), including descriptions of train type (diesel locomotive, electric locomotive), and train consists. This future rail schedule represents service levels for the year 20371.

As a result of these proposed changes the 2017 Electrification EPR must be amended. Existing and future air quality impacts associated with these changes were predicted to assess potential effects of the project on regional emissions.

1.1 Project Scope The regional air quality study compared network-wide air contaminant emissions from the future train service schedules to network-wide emissions from baseline GO Transit rail operations in 2015 (the baseline established in the 2017 EPR). Metrolinx also retained RWDI to conduct assessments of air quality effects at a local scale throughout the relevant portions of the network. That work is reported in a separate report for each corridor. Local air quality studies were completed only for corridors where diesel locomotive traffic was expected to increase and nearby receptors impacted by the increased emissions. While diesel service levels will remain the same or decrease (with electric train service taking up the planned increased service levels), there will be an increase in the number of diesel locomotives operating on some corridors. This is due to the need to power diesel trains with two locomotives rather than one during peak periods. Corridors with increased diesel train traffic include LSE, KIT, USRC and RH. For all other corridors, increased service levels will be achieved by adding electrified trains and diesel train traffic levels will either remain the same or decrease in future.

Criteria Air Contaminants (CACs) and Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) considered for the regional air quality study include:

• Carbon monoxide (CO)

• Nitrogen oxides (NOX)

1 This refers to the version of the future rail schedule developed in April 2020.


2 Rev 00 18-May-2021

• Respirable Particulate Matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less (PM2.5)

• Carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e)

The study scope includes seven Metrolinx-owned Rail Corridors. The study will exclude all other rail activity and corridors in the network. The seven corridors included in the scope are:

• Union Station

• Lakeshore West (including the Canpa Subdivision)

• Kitchener (up to the Halton Subdivision)

• Barrie

• Stouffville

• Lakeshore East

• Richmond Hill [up to Mile 4.38 (Pottery Road)]

All current Metrolinx Corridors are shown in Figure 1.


3 Rev 00 18-May-2021

FIGURE 1: CURRENT METROLINX CORRIDORS


4 Rev 00 18-May-2021

1.2 Study Area The Study Area for the regional air quality analysis spans all corridors included in the project scope. The Study Area is shown in Figure 2.

FIGURE 2: STUDY AREA


5 Rev 00 18-May-2021

2 Methodology

Air quality impacts at a regional scale are quantified in terms of annual emissions of contaminants released into the atmosphere. This section discusses the methodology used to determine the annual emissions from GO rail activity before and after the Electrification project.

Two scenarios were considered in the regional air quality study:

• Scenario 1: The pre-project or baseline conditions represented by 2015 rail service

• Scenario 2: The post-project conditions represented by the future train service schedules

2.1 Scenario 1 (pre-project) All trains in Scenario 1 were assumed to be diesel-powered. For diesel-powered trains, each locomotive includes a main engine for motive power, and a generator, also known as a Head End Power (HEP) unit, to provide electricity to passenger cars for lighting, heating/cooling, etc. Both the engine and the HEP unit emit contaminants of concern through the combustion of diesel fuel.

The US EPA has sets of standards for emissions of CO, PM2.5 and NOX from various internal combustion sources including locomotives and generators. In order to reduce emissions, railway operations in Canada also comply with these standards through the Railway Safety Act. These standards are phased in through a tiered approach, where Tier 0 is the least stringent (highest emissions) and Tier 4 is the most stringent (lowest emissions). GO Transit currently uses a mix of diesel locomotives ranging from Tier 0 to Tier 42. For each tier, the US EPA provides emission factor limits (g/bhp-hr) for contaminants of concern which determine the rate at which a contaminant can be released based on engine activity. The emission factors are provided for both the engine and the HEP unit. In order to quantify diesel emissions from the GO Transit fleet, a weighted average approach was taken where the emission factors associated with specific tiers were weighted based on the number of locomotives from that respective tier within the fleet. Weighted emission factors for CO, PM2.5 and NOX used in the analysis can be seen in Tables A-1 and A-2 in Appendix A.

Emissions of CO2e were handled differently from CO, PM2.5 and NOX, starting with a published emission factor based on fuel consumption. The emission factor is shown in Table A-3 in Appendix A.

In addition, it was necessary to determine the number of trains, the speed of the trains, the distance travelled, and the horsepower of both the locomotive engine and the HEP unit along each corridor. This information was obtained from the 2017 EPR. Train speed and engine brake horsepower were based on average values obtained from trip log data for each corridor, which were provided by Metrolinx. Each trip log recorded the engine throttle settings, which was used to determine the associated engine horsepower (see Table A-4 of Appendix A), and the speed profiles for various local trains travelling in both directions along all corridors in 2015. It was assumed that the HEP units are operating at an average load of 50% of their capacity (i.e., 600 bhp).

The train movements were split between revenue train trips and non-revenue train trips. Revenue trips are trips that include passengers and stop at stations, therefore travelling at overall lower speeds along the corridors. Non-revenue trips, on the other hand, do not transport passengers and may travel between stations and train layovers without stopping, thereby having an overall higher speed along the corridor. An average speed and brake horsepower were used across all segments of a given corridor, broken

2 In the absence of any definitive information on how the mix of diesel locomotives in the fleet will change in future, a

conservative approach was adopted in which the diesel locomotive mix was assumed to be the same as in the baseline scenario.


6 Rev 00 18-May-2021

down by revenue and non-revenue trips. The number of trains, speed, throttle setting, and horsepower used in the analysis can be seen in Table A-5 for revenue trains and Table A-6 for non-revenue trains, both in Appendix A.

This information was used to estimate the emissions for a single weekday along each Rail Corridor assessed. Total annual emissions were estimated assuming that the weekdays occur 251 days of the year, Saturdays occur for 52 days with 60% of weekday emissions, Sundays occur for 52 days with 55% of weekday emissions, and holidays occur for 10 days of the year with 55% of weekday emissions (Gannet Fleming Canada ULC, 2016, available in Appendix E). This breakdown of service level was provided by Metrolinx, and is detailed in Table 5 in Appendix E. Results from the analysis of diesel emissions from the Scenario 1 can be seen in Table A-7 in Appendix A.

2.2 Scenario 2 (post-project) Scenario 2 is based on train traffic outlined in the future train service schedule. The future train service schedules outlines the mix of diesel and electric trains that will operate on each corridor, as well as further details on locomotive consists (e.g. D1L6, with one diesel engine and 6 passenger cars, or D2L12, with two diesel engines and 12 passenger cars). For electric-powered trains, the motive power and power to the HEP unit are all supplied by electricity. In this case, there are no direct combustion emissions from the trains. However, there are indirect emissions incurred in the electricity generation process, which can be estimated based on electricity generation scenarios.

Emissions from diesel trains were estimated using the methodology outlined in Section 2.1 above. The number of locomotives travelling on each corridor was determined from the future train service schedule. Speed, throttle, and brake horsepower were obtained from information provided by Metrolinx. Detailed analysis to determine diesel emissions in Scenario 2 can be seen in Appendix B, and results can be provided in Table B-7.

Electricity in Ontario is generated through a mix of renewable and non-renewable sources, namely nuclear, hydroelectric, natural gas (fossil fuel), biofuels, solar, and wind energy. Three electricity generation scenarios were analyzed to bracket the range of possible conditions. In the first scenario, electricity generation was represented by the average mix, in which 10% of the electricity generated comes from fossil fuels. The second scenario was represented by the mix of generating capacity in the province, of which 28% is associated with fossil fuels. In the final scenario, it was assumed that all electricity is generated by fossil fuel consumption – this is an upper bound scenario in terms of air contaminant emissions. The electricity demand of an electrified GO Transit system would vary widely throughout the day, from minimal demand overnight to peak demand during peak hours. Therefore, while on average 10% of Ontario’s total electricity is provided by fossil fuel combustion, this percentage may increase during periods of peak electricity demand. Since it cannot be determined which emissions scenario applies at any time, these scenarios provide a bracket of the range of emissions that are likely to occur based on electricity demand.

Table C-1 in Appendix C lists Ontario’s electricity output for 2019 from various fuel types in megawatt-hours, and Table C-2 lists the province’s total emissions for NOX, PM2.5, and CO2e from the electricity for 2019 in tonnes (Ontario Energy Board and IESO, 2019). These data were sourced from the 2019 Ontario Energy Report, which can be seen in Appendix D. The tonnes of emissions in Table C-2 were divided by the electricity output in Table C-1 to obtain emission factors that relate contaminant emission rates to electricity usage. Total emissions for CO were not available in the Ontario Energy Report. These emission factors were instead developed from the US EPA emission factors for stationary gas turbines which are representative of the gas power plants in Ontario (US EPA, 2000). The emission factors for all three future emissions scenarios can be seen in Table C-3 in Appendix C.


7 Rev 00 18-May-2021

The emission factors in Table C-3 provide information on the mass of emissions produced per megawatt-hours of electricity usage. The total weekday electricity consumption of GO trains was provided by Metrolinx, and can be seen in Table C-4 in Appendix C (Gannet Fleming Canada ULC, 2016). The weekday electricity consumption varies based on whether regenerative braking is used. The electricity consumption of trains also depends on the weight of the train and the miles travelled. The weight of the trains with and without passengers was also provided by Metrolinx, and corresponds to revenue and non-revenue trains, respectively (Gannet Fleming Canada ULC, 2016). This information was used to estimate the total weekday emissions associated with the electric locomotives in the fleet, based on the electricity generation scenario and whether regenerative braking is used. Total annual emissions from electricity usage were determined using the breakdown of number of weekdays, Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays, and the respective fraction of activity, described in Section 2.1 above. The emission results can be seen in Table C-7 in Appendix C.


8 Rev 00 18-May-2021

3 Results

Table 1 summarizes the total annual emissions in tonnes per year of NOX, CO, PM2.5, and CO2e from Scenario 1, representing emissions from baseline GO transit rail activity included in the project scope. Table 2 summarizes total annual emissions in tonnes per year from NOX, CO, PM2.5, and CO2e for Scenario 2, representing both diesel and electric emissions from the future train service schedule. Emissions from the two scenarios are compared in Figures 3-6. In these figures, annual emissions from electric-powered trains were averaged between emissions estimated with and without the use of regenerative braking in trains. The figures indicate the following:

• For CO and CO2e, the future scenario with electrification (at 2037 service levels) results in annual emissions that range from a slight reduction to an increase above the baseline scenario, depending on the mix of electricity generation sources;

• For NOX and PM2.5, the future scenario results in annual emissions that are lower than the baseline scenario, except in the case of the extreme upper bound electricity generation case where all electricity is generated using fossil fuel.

TABLE 1: ANNUAL EMISSIONS FROM SCENARIO 1 (2015 RAIL ACTIVITY) IN TONNES/YEAR

Pollutant Annual Emissions from Scenario

1 (tonnes/year)

NOX 1.51E+03

CO 6.12E+02

PM2.5 4.77E+01

CO2e 1.69E+05

TABLE 2: ANNUAL EMISSIONS FROM SCENARIO 2 (2037 RAIL ACTIVITY) IN TONNES/YEAR

Contaminant

Annual Emissions from Scenario 2

Average (10%) Electricity Supply from Fossil Fuels

Capacity (28% Supply from Fossil Fuels)

All (100%) Electricity Supply from Fossil Fuels

Without Regenerative

Breaking

With Regenerative

Braking


Breaking

With Regenerative

Braking


Breaking

With Regenerative

Braking

NOx 1.49E+03 1.48E+03 1.63E+03 1.61E+03 2.07E+03 2.02E+03

CO 6.28E+02 6.26E+02 7.00E+02 6.92E+02 9.43E+02 9.13E+02

PM2.5 4.60E+01 4.59E+01 5.10E+01 5.04E+01 6.68E+01 6.49E+01

CO2e 1.92E+05 1.90E+05 2.86E+05 2.76E+05 5.88E+05 5.51E+05


9 Rev 00 18-May-2021

FIGURE 3: COMPARISON OF CO2e EMISSIONS FROM SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2

FIGURE 4: COMPARISON OF NOX EMISSIONS FROM SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Baseline: 2015 Rail

Acitivity

Electrification:

Average (10%)

Electricity Supply

from Fossil Fuels

Electrification:

Capacity (28%)

Electricity Supply

from Fossil Fuels

Electrification: All

(100%) Electricity

Supply from Fossil

Fuels

CO

2e

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

ne

s/ye

ar)

Scenarios

Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e) Emissions from

Metrolinx Rail Activity

Emissions from Diesel Use Emissions from Electricity Use

-

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

Baseline: 2015 Rail

Acitivity

Electrification:

Average (10%)

Electricity Supply

from Fossil Fuels

Electrification:

Capacity (28%)

Electricity Supply

from Fossil Fuels


(100%) Electricity

Supply from Fossil

Fuels

NO

x E

mis

sio

ns

(to

nn

es/

ye

ar)

Scenarios

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Emissions from Metrolinx Rail

Activity



10 Rev 00 18-May-2021

FIGURE 5: COMPARISON OF CO EMISSIONS FROM SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2

FIGURE 6: COMPARISON OF PM2.5 EMISSIONS FROM SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2

- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1,000

Baseline: 2015 Rail

Acitivity

Electrification:

Average (10%)

Electricity Supply from

Fossil Fuels

Electrification:

Capacity (28%)


Fossil Fuels


(100%) Electricity

Supply from Fossil

Fuels

CO

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

ne

s/ye

ar)

Scenarios

Carbon Monoxide (CO) Emissions from Metrolinx Rail

Activity


-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Baseline: 2015 Rail

Acitivity

Electrification: Average

(10%) Electricity Supply

from Fossil Fuels

Electrification:

Capacity (28%)


Fossil Fuels


(100%) Electricity

Supply from Fossil

Fuels

PM

2.5

E

mis

sio

ns

(to

nn

es/

ye

ar)

Scenarios

Particulate Matter, diameter 2.5 μm (PM2.5) Emissions

from Metrolinx Rail Activity



11 Rev 00 18-May-2021

The projected increase in revenue train-kilometer travelled between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 is approximately a 400% increase across the network. Table 3 presents the percent change in emissions between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 (showing the maximum change between NOx, PM2.5, and CO), compared to the change in revenue train-kilometers travelled. This table illustrates the proportional benefit of electrification, as the increase in train-kilometers travelled is significantly larger than the increase in emissions.

TABLE 3: PERCENT CHANGE IN TRAIN-KILOMETERS TRAVELLED AND POLLUTANT EMISSIONS BETWEEN SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2





Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking

Train-Kilometers travelled

400% 400% 400% 400% 400% 400%

Pollutant 3% 2% 14% 13% 54% 49%

CO2e 14% 12% 69% 63% 248% 226%

Tables 4 to 6 show how the change in emissions due to the future service levels with electrification will affect Ontario’s total emissions from all sources, mobile sources, and rail transportation sources. These tables show that, in relation to province-wide emissions, the changes associated with the project are very small. In the average electricity generation scenario, a slight decrease in province-wide emissions occurs for NOx and PM2.5, and an increase occurs for CO and CO2e. In the capacity-based generation scenario a slight decrease occurs for PM2.5, while an increase occurs for other contaminants. In the 100% fossil fuel-based electricity generation scenario, a slight increase occurs for all contaminants.

TABLE 4: PERCENT CHANGE IN ANNUAL EMISSIONS AFTER ELECTRIFICATION, RELATIVE TO ONTARIO’S TOTAL RAIL EMISSIONS

Contaminant

Total Ontario Rail

Transportation Source

Emissions [1] [2] (tonnes/

year)

Percent Change in Emissions with Electrification (tonnes/year)





Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking

NOX 2.00E+04 -0.08% -0.13% 0.62% 0.5% 2.8% 2.6%

CO 3.52E+03 0.46% 0.40% 2.5% 2.3% 9.4% 8.6%

PM2.5 3.99E+02 -0.4% -0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 4.8% 4.3%

CO2e 1.85E+07 0.12% 0.11% 1% 0.6% 2.3% 2.1%

[1] Ontario emissions of NOX, CO, PM2.5 are for 2017, from: "Air Pollutants Emission Inventory Online Search", Government of Canada, 2019 [2] CO2e emissions from rail transportation are for 2016, from: Natural Resources Canada, Comprehensive Energy Use Database, Transportation Sector, Table 16


12 Rev 00 18-May-2021

TABLE 5: PERCENT CHANGE IN ANNUAL EMISSIONS AFTER ELECTRIFICATION, RELATIVE TO ONTARIO’S TOTAL MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS

Contaminant

Total Ontario Mobile Source Emissions [1] [2]

(tonnes/ year)






Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking

NOX 2.09E+05 -0.01% -0.01% 0.059% 0.05% 0.27% 0.25%

CO 9.89E+05 0.002% 0.001% 0.009% 0.008% 0.03% 0.03%

PM2.5 8.70E+03 -0.02% -0.02% 0.04% 0.03% 0.22% 0.20%

CO2e 5.98E+07 0.04% 0.04% 0.20% 0.18% 0.70% 0.64%

[1] Ontario emissions of NOX, CO, PM2.5 are for 2017, from: "Air Pollutants Emission Inventory Online Search", Government of Canada, 2019 [2] CO2e emissions from mobile sources are for 2016, from: Natural Resources Canada, Comprehensive Energy Use Database, Transportation Sector, Table 4

TABLE 6: PERCENT CHANGE IN ANNUAL EMISSIONS AFTER ELECTRIFICATION, RELATIVE TO ONTARIO’S TOTAL EMISSIONS FROM ALL SOURCES

Contaminant

Total Ontario Emissions [1] [2]

(tonnes/ year)






Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking


Braking

With Regenerative

Braking

NOX 3.00E+05 -0.01% -0.01% 0.04% 0.03% 0.19% 0.17%

CO 1.39E+06 0.001% 0.001% 0.006% 0.006% 0.02% 0.02%

PM2.5 2.70E+05 -0.001% -0.001% 0.001% 0.001% 0.007% 0.006%

CO2e 1.59E+08 0.014% 0.013% 0.07% 0.07% 0.26% 0.24%

[1] Ontario emissions of NOX, CO, PM2.5 are for 2017, from: "Air Pollutants Emission Inventory Online Search", Government of Canada, 2019 [2] Ontario emissions of CO2e are for 2017, from: National Inventory Report 1990-2017: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada


13 Rev 00 18-May-2021

4 Conclusion

With the proposed future operations (2037 service levels with electrification) emissions of criteria air contaminants NOX and PM2.5 are predicted to be lower than in the baseline scenario (2015) in the average electricity generation scenario. PM2.5 and NOx emissions are expected to be slightly higher in the capacity generation scenario. In the extreme scenario of 100% fossil-fuel-based electricity generation, emissions from all contaminants are expected to increase when compared to the baseline. Emissions of CO and CO2e will increase, to various degrees, compared to the baseline, depending on the electricity generation scenario. In all cases, the impact on province-wide emissions of air contaminants compared to the total for all provincial sources is small (<1%).


Rev 00 18-May-2021

APPENDIX A: Diesel Emission Estimation

for Scenario 1

Appendix A - Diesel Emission Estimation for Scenario 1 (2015 Rail Activity)

Table A-1: Weighted Locomotive Emission Factors

Locomotive Locomotive

Distribution [1]Tier CO [2] PM [2] NOx [2]

PM2.5 [3]

g/bhp-hr g/bhp-hr g/bhp-hr g/bhp-hr

8 Tier 0 [2]5 0.22 8 0.21

56 Tier 2 1.5 0.20 5.5 0.19

10 Tier 3 1.5 0.10 5.5 0.10

17 Tier 4 1.5 0.03 1.3 0.03

Weighted Emission Factor 1.81 0.16 4.94 0.15

Notes:

[1] As per email from Metrolinx, dated December 18, 2019

[2] "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Litres per Cylinder" 73 Federal Register 126 (30 June 2008), pp. 37199

[3] 0.97 x PM: "Emission Factors for Locomotives", U.S. EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-F-09-025, April 2009, p.4

Table A-2. Head End Power (HEP) Unit Emission Factors

Locomotive Horsepower Emissions

Distribution[1]Category Tier CO PM NOx PM2.5

[8]


8 - Tier 0 [2]5 0.22 8 0.2134

56 > 750 Tier 2 [3]2.6 0.15 4.8 0.146

10 >750 Tier 3 [3]2.6 0.15 4.8 0.146

16 <= 1,200 Tier 4 [4]1.5 0.03 1.3 0.029

1 <= 1,200 Tier 4 [5][7]2.6 0.02 0.5 0.019


Notes:


[2] Tier 0 trains do not have a separate HEP Unit; emission factors are assumed to be the same as that of the locomotive

[3] Tier 2 & Tier 3: "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines" 63 Federal Register 205 (23 October 1998), p. 56970

[4] As per email from Metrolinx, dated December 18, 2019, 16 of the Tier 4 trains do not have separate HEP units; emission factors are assumed to be the same as that of the locomotive

[5] As per email from Metrolinx, dated December 18, 2019, 1 of the Tier 4 trains has a separate HEP unit

Tier 4: "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines and Fuel" 69 Federal Register 124 (29 June 2004), p. 38980

[6] See Locomotive Emission Factors (Table X-X) for EF formula references

[7] Tier 4 CO Emission Factor is based on previously applied Tier 2 standard; "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines and Fuel" 69 Federal Register 124 (29 June 2004), p. 38971


Table A-3. CO2e Emission Factor

CO2e EF (g/L) [1]2982.75

CO2e EF (g/bhp-hr) [2] 543

Notes:

[1] The CO2e emission factor provided represents a weighted average for all rail activity in Canada; "Locomotive Emissions Monitoring Program 2016", Railway Association of Canada (2016), p. 32

[2] The emission factor of CO2e was converted from units of g/L to g/bhp-hr assuming a fuel consumption of 20.8 bhp-hr/gal (5.49 bhp-hr/L); "Emission Factors for Locomotives", EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality (2009), p.3

Table A-4: Notch Setting and Corresponding Brake Horsepower for MP40 Locomotive

HEP Unit

L. Idle Idle DB [2] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 N/A

BHP 9 27.8 46.7 231.6 448.7 982.9 1,445 1,876 2,878 3,658 4,230 600

Notes:

[1] Data from an MP40PH-3C EMD 16-710G3C-T2 engine test on 12/11/07.

[2] DB = dynamic braking.

Notch [1]

Emission Factors

Emission Factors


Emissions from Revenue Trains

Table A-5: Present Day Emissions from Revenue Trains Daily Lomotive Emissions Daiy Head End Power Emissions Total Train Emissions

Rail Corridor SegmentDiesel Train

Frequency[1]

Segment

Distance [1]Travel Time

Average

throttle

settings [1]

Average

Engine Power

Locomotive

Energy

Expended Per

Train

Head End

Power Rating

Head End

Power Energy

Expended Per

Train

NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e

(trips/day) (km) (hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day)

Lakeshore West Aldershot GO to Burlington GO 83 5.0 0.12 6.00 2878 336 600 70 0.138 0.050 0.004 15.1 0.026 0.015 7.53E-04 3.2 0.163 0.066 0.005 18.3

Burlington GO to Appleby GO 85 5.8 0.12 6.00 2878 336 600 70 0.141 0.052 0.005 15.5 0.026 0.016 7.71E-04 3.2 0.167 0.067 0.005 18.7

Appleby GO to Bronte GO 85 5.2 0.12 6.00 2878 336 600 70 0.141 0.052 0.005 15.5 0.026 0.016 7.71E-04 3.2 0.167 0.067 0.005 18.7

Bronte GO to Oakville GO 88 5.4 0.10 6.00 2878 288 600 60 0.125 0.046 0.004 13.7 0.023 0.014 6.84E-04 2.9 0.148 0.060 0.005 16.6

Oakville GO to Clarkson GO 91 7.5 0.13 6.00 2878 384 600 80 0.172 0.063 0.006 19.0 0.032 0.019 9.44E-04 4.0 0.205 0.082 0.006 22.9

Clarkson GO to Port Credit GO 91 6.1 0.13 6.00 2878 384 600 80 0.172 0.063 0.006 19.0 0.032 0.019 9.44E-04 4.0 0.205 0.082 0.006 22.9

Port Credit GO to Long Branch GO 92 5.3 0.10 6.00 2878 288 600 60 0.131 0.048 0.004 14.4 0.024 0.014 7.15E-04 3.0 0.155 0.062 0.005 17.4

Long Branch GO to Mimico GO 92 4.9 0.13 6.00 2878 384 600 80 0.174 0.064 0.006 19.2 0.033 0.019 9.54E-04 4.0 0.207 0.083 0.007 23.2

Mimico GO to Exhibition GO 92 7.3 0.13 6.00 2878 384 600 80 0.174 0.064 0.006 19.2 0.033 0.019 9.54E-04 4.0 0.207 0.083 0.007 23.2

Exhibition GO to Union Station 92 3.1 0.18 6.00 2878 528 600 110 0.240 0.088 0.008 26.4 0.045 0.026 1.31E-03 5.5 0.284 0.114 0.009 31.8

Barrie Allendale GO to Barrie South GO 12 5.9 0.17 5.00 1876 313 600 100 0.019 0.007 0.001 2.0 0.005 0.003 1.56E-04 0.7 0.024 0.010 0.001 2.7

Barrie South GO to Bradford GO 12 28.8 0.35 5.00 1876 657 600 210 0.039 0.014 0.001 4.3 0.011 0.007 3.27E-04 1.4 0.050 0.021 0.002 5.6

Bradford GO to East Gwillimbury GO 12 9.9 0.17 5.00 1876 313 600 100 0.019 0.007 0.001 2.0 0.005 0.003 1.56E-04 0.7 0.024 0.010 0.001 2.7

East Gwillimbury GO to Newmarket GO 12 1.8 0.07 5.00 1876 125 600 40 0.007 0.003 0.000 0.8 0.002 0.001 6.22E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 0.000 1.1

Newmarket GO to Aurora GO 12 7.2 0.13 5.00 1876 250 600 80 0.015 0.005 0.000 1.6 0.004 0.003 1.24E-04 0.5 0.019 0.008 0.001 2.2

Aurora GO to King City GO 12 11.7 0.18 5.00 1876 344 600 110 0.020 0.007 0.001 2.2 0.006 0.003 1.71E-04 0.7 0.026 0.011 0.001 3.0

King City GO to Maple GO 12 6.9 0.15 5.00 1876 281 600 90 0.017 0.006 0.001 1.8 0.005 0.003 1.40E-04 0.6 0.021 0.009 0.001 2.4

Maple GO to Rutherford GO 14 2.6 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.011 0.004 0.000 1.2 0.003 0.002 9.07E-05 0.4 0.014 0.006 0.000 1.6

Rutherford GO to York University GO 14 6.6 0.15 5.00 1876 281 600 90 0.019 0.007 0.001 2.1 0.006 0.003 1.63E-04 0.7 0.025 0.010 0.001 2.8

York University GO to Union Station 14 20.1 0.40 5.00 1876 750 600 240 0.052 0.019 0.002 5.7 0.015 0.009 4.36E-04 1.8 0.067 0.028 0.002 7.5

Kitchener Bramlea GO to Malton GO 30 4.3 0.12 5.00 1876 219 600 70 0.032 0.012 0.001 3.6 0.009 0.005 2.72E-04 1.1 0.042 0.017 0.001 4.7

Malton GO to Etobicoke GO 30 6.1 0.10 5.00 1876 188 600 60 0.028 0.010 0.001 3.1 0.008 0.005 2.33E-04 1.0 0.036 0.015 0.001 4.0

Etobicoke GO to Weston GO 30 4.3 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.023 0.008 0.001 2.5 0.007 0.004 1.94E-04 0.8 0.030 0.012 0.001 3.4

Weston GO to Bloor GO 30 6.8 0.12 5.00 1876 219 600 70 0.032 0.012 0.001 3.6 0.009 0.005 2.72E-04 1.1 0.042 0.017 0.001 4.7

Bloor GO to Union Station 30 6.5 0.20 5.00 1876 375 600 120 0.056 0.020 0.002 6.1 0.016 0.009 4.67E-04 2.0 0.071 0.030 0.002 8.1

Lakeshore East Union Station to Danforth GO 89 8.3 0.23 6.00 2878 672 600 140 0.295 0.108 0.010 32.4 0.055 0.033 1.62E-03 6.8 0.350 0.141 0.011 39.2

Danforth GO to Scarborough GO 88 5.2 0.10 6.00 2878 288 600 60 0.125 0.046 0.004 13.7 0.023 0.014 6.84E-04 2.9 0.148 0.060 0.005 16.6

Scarborough GO to Eglington GO 88 3.1 0.08 6.00 2878 240 600 50 0.104 0.038 0.003 11.5 0.019 0.012 5.70E-04 2.4 0.124 0.050 0.004 13.8

Eglington GO to Guildwood GO 88 3.4 0.08 6.00 2878 240 600 50 0.104 0.038 0.003 11.5 0.019 0.012 5.70E-04 2.4 0.124 0.050 0.004 13.8

Guildwood GO to Rouge Hill GO 88 6.3 0.12 6.00 2878 336 600 70 0.146 0.053 0.005 16.0 0.027 0.016 7.98E-04 3.3 0.173 0.070 0.005 19.4

Rouge Hill GO to Pickering GO 88 7.3 0.13 6.00 2878 384 600 80 0.167 0.061 0.005 18.3 0.031 0.018 9.13E-04 3.8 0.198 0.079 0.006 22.2

Pickering GO to Ajax GO 82 3.8 0.10 6.00 2878 288 600 60 0.116 0.043 0.004 12.8 0.022 0.013 6.38E-04 2.7 0.138 0.056 0.004 15.5

Ajax GO to Whitby GO 82 8.6 0.13 6.00 2878 384 600 80 0.155 0.057 0.005 17.1 0.029 0.017 8.50E-04 3.6 0.184 0.074 0.006 20.6

Whitby GO to Oshawa GO 82 4.4 0.12 6.00 2878 336 600 70 0.136 0.050 0.004 14.9 0.025 0.015 7.44E-04 3.1 0.161 0.065 0.005 18.1

Stouffville Union Station to Kennedy GO 15 16.3 0.40 4.00 1445 578 600 240 0.043 0.016 0.001 4.7 0.016 0.009 4.67E-04 2.0 0.059 0.025 0.002 6.7

Kennedy GO to Agincourt GO 15 6.3 0.13 4.00 1445 193 600 80 0.014 0.005 0.000 1.6 0.005 0.003 1.56E-04 0.7 0.020 0.008 0.001 2.2

Agincourt GO to Miliken GO 15 4.3 0.12 4.00 1445 169 600 70 0.012 0.005 0.000 1.4 0.005 0.003 1.36E-04 0.6 0.017 0.007 0.001 1.9

Miliken GO to Unionville GO 15 3.4 0.13 4.00 1445 193 600 80 0.014 0.005 0.000 1.6 0.005 0.003 1.56E-04 0.7 0.020 0.008 0.001 2.2

Unionville GO to Centennial GO 12 3.7 0.10 4.00 1445 145 600 60 0.009 0.003 0.000 0.9 0.003 0.002 9.33E-05 0.4 0.012 0.005 0.000 1.3

Centennial GO to Markham GO 12 2.4 0.08 4.00 1445 120 600 50 0.007 0.003 0.000 0.8 0.003 0.002 7.78E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 0.000 1.1

Markham GO to Mount Joy GO 12 1.9 0.08 4.00 1445 120 600 50 0.007 0.003 0.000 0.8 0.003 0.002 7.78E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 0.000 1.1

Mount Joy GO to Stouffville GO 12 8.5 0.17 4.00 1445 241 600 100 0.014 0.005 0.000 1.6 0.005 0.003 1.56E-04 0.7 0.020 0.008 0.001 2.2

Stouffville GO to Lincolnville GO 12 3.2 0.18 4.00 1445 265 600 110 0.016 0.006 0.001 1.7 0.006 0.003 1.71E-04 0.7 0.022 0.009 0.001 2.4

Richmond Hill Union Station to Oriole GO 11 20.1 0.45 5.00 1876 844 600 270 0.046 0.017 0.001 5.0 0.013 0.008 3.85E-04 1.6 0.059 0.025 0.002 6.7

Oriole GO to Old Cummer GO 11 2.7 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.008 0.003 0.000 0.9 0.002 0.001 7.13E-05 0.3 0.011 0.005 0.000 1.2

Old Cummer GO to Langstaff GO 11 11.1 0.13 5.00 1876 250 600 80 0.014 0.005 0.000 1.5 0.004 0.002 1.14E-04 0.5 0.017 0.007 0.001 2.0

Langstaff GO to Richmond Hill GO 11 4.3 0.13 5.00 1876 250 600 80 0.014 0.005 0.000 1.5 0.004 0.002 1.14E-04 0.5 0.017 0.007 0.001 2.0

Richmond Hill GO to Gormley GO 11 8.6 0.25 5.00 1876 469 600 150 0.025 0.009 0.001 2.8 0.007 0.004 2.14E-04 0.9 0.033 0.014 0.001 3.7

Notes: TOTAL 4.33 1.76 0.14 486

[1] Based on data from the RWDI 2017 Electrification EA study


Emissions from Non-Revenue Trains

Table A-6: Present Day Emissions from Non-Revenue Trains Daily Lomotive Emissions Daiy Head End Power Emissions Total Train Emissions

Rail Corridor SegmentDiesel Train

Frequency[1]

Segment

Distance [1]Average Speed Travel Time

Average

throttle

settings [1]

Average

Engine Power

Locomotive

Energy

Expended Per

Train

Head End

Power Rating

Head End Power

Energy Expended

Per Train


(trips/day) (km) (km/hr) (hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day)

Union Station Stratchan Avenue to Don Yard Layover 121 5.0 47.8 0.10 4.00 1445 151 600 63 0.090 0.033 2.91E-03 9.9 0.034 0.020 9.84E-04 4.1 0.124 0.053 3.89E-03 14.0

Lakeshore West Aldershot GO to Burlington GO 13 5.0 134.3 0.04 5.00 1876 69 600 22 0.004 0.002 1.43E-04 0.5 0.001 0.001 3.73E-05 0.2 0.006 0.002 1.80E-04 0.6

Burlington GO to Appleby GO 14 5.8 134.3 0.04 5.00 1876 81 600 26 0.006 0.002 1.81E-04 0.6 0.002 0.001 4.73E-05 0.2 0.007 0.003 2.29E-04 0.8

Appleby GO to Bronte GO 14 5.2 134.3 0.04 5.00 1876 72 600 23 0.005 0.002 1.61E-04 0.5 0.001 0.001 4.19E-05 0.2 0.006 0.003 2.03E-04 0.7

Bronte GO to Oakville GO 15 5.4 134.3 0.04 5.00 1876 75 600 24 0.006 0.002 1.79E-04 0.6 0.002 0.001 4.65E-05 0.2 0.007 0.003 2.25E-04 0.8

Oakville GO to Clarkson GO 18 7.5 134.3 0.06 5.00 1876 104 600 33 0.009 0.003 2.98E-04 1.0 0.003 0.002 7.76E-05 0.3 0.012 0.005 3.75E-04 1.3

Clarkson GO to Port Credit GO 18 6.1 134.3 0.05 5.00 1876 86 600 27 0.008 0.003 2.45E-04 0.8 0.002 0.001 6.39E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 3.09E-04 1.1

Port Credit GO to Long Branch GO 20 5.3 134.3 0.04 5.00 1876 75 600 24 0.007 0.003 2.37E-04 0.8 0.002 0.001 6.18E-05 0.3 0.009 0.004 2.99E-04 1.1

Long Branch GO to Mimico GO 66 4.9 134.3 0.04 5.00 1876 68 600 22 0.022 0.008 7.14E-04 2.4 0.006 0.004 1.86E-04 0.8 0.028 0.012 9.00E-04 3.2

Mimico GO to Exhibition GO 66 7.3 134.3 0.05 5.00 1876 102 600 33 0.033 0.012 1.07E-03 3.7 0.010 0.006 2.79E-04 1.2 0.043 0.018 1.35E-03 4.8

Exhibition GO to Strachan Avenue 66 0.6 134.3 0.004 5.00 1876 8 600 3 0.003 0.001 8.79E-05 0.3 0.001 0.000 2.29E-05 0.1 0.004 0.001 1.11E-04 0.4

Barrie Allendale GO to Barrie South GO 13 5.9 95.8 0.06 5.00 1876 115 600 37 0.007 0.003 2.37E-04 0.8 0.002 0.001 6.17E-05 0.3 0.009 0.004 2.99E-04 1.1

Barrie South GO to Bradford GO 8 28.8 95.8 0.30 5.00 1876 564 600 180 0.022 0.008 7.17E-04 2.4 0.006 0.004 1.87E-04 0.8 0.029 0.012 9.04E-04 3.2

Bradford GO to East Gwillimbury GO 8 9.9 95.8 0.10 5.00 1876 193 600 62 0.008 0.003 2.45E-04 0.8 0.002 0.001 6.40E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 3.09E-04 1.1

East Gwillimbury GO to Newmarket GO 8 1.8 95.8 0.02 5.00 1876 36 600 12 0.001 0.001 4.58E-05 0.2 0.000 0.000 1.20E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 5.78E-05 0.2

Newmarket GO to Aurora GO 8 7.2 95.8 0.08 5.00 1876 141 600 45 0.006 0.002 1.80E-04 0.6 0.002 0.001 4.68E-05 0.2 0.007 0.003 2.26E-04 0.8

Aurora GO to King City GO 8 11.7 95.8 0.12 5.00 1876 228 600 73 0.009 0.003 2.90E-04 1.0 0.003 0.002 7.57E-05 0.3 0.012 0.005 3.66E-04 1.3

King City GO to Maple GO 2 6.9 95.8 0.07 5.00 1876 135 600 43 0.001 0.000 4.30E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 1.12E-05 0.0 0.002 0.001 5.42E-05 0.2

Maple GO to Rutherford GO 0 2.6 95.8 0.03 5.00 1876 51 600 16 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Rutherford GO to York University GO 0 6.6 95.8 0.07 5.00 1876 130 600 41 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

York University GO to Strachan Avenue 0 17.6 95.8 0.18 5.00 1876 345 600 110 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Kitchener Bramlea GO to Malton GO 4 4.3 126.7 0.03 5.00 1876 64 600 20 0.001 0.000 4.07E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 1.06E-05 0.0 0.002 0.001 5.13E-05 0.2

Malton GO to Etobicoke GO 4 6.1 126.7 0.05 5.00 1876 90 600 29 0.002 0.001 5.74E-05 0.2 0.001 0.000 1.50E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 7.23E-05 0.3

Etobicoke GO to Weston GO 4 4.3 126.7 0.03 5.00 1876 64 600 20 0.001 0.000 4.06E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 1.06E-05 0.0 0.002 0.001 5.12E-05 0.2

Weston GO to Bloor GO 4 6.8 126.7 0.05 5.00 1876 100 600 32 0.002 0.001 6.39E-05 0.2 0.001 0.000 1.67E-05 0.1 0.003 0.001 8.05E-05 0.3

Bloor GO to Strachan Avenue 4 4.0 126.7 0.03 5.00 1876 59 600 19 0.001 0.000 3.78E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 9.85E-06 0.0 0.002 0.001 4.76E-05 0.2

Lakeshore East Don River to Danforth GO 8 5.8 129.5 0.05 5.00 1876 84 600 27 0.003 0.001 1.07E-04 0.4 0.001 0.001 2.80E-05 0.1 0.004 0.002 1.35E-04 0.5

Danforth GO to Scarborough GO 8 5.2 129.5 0.04 5.00 1876 76 600 24 0.003 0.001 9.62E-05 0.3 0.001 0.001 2.51E-05 0.1 0.004 0.002 1.21E-04 0.4

Scarborough GO to Eglington GO 8 3.1 129.5 0.02 5.00 1876 44 600 14 0.002 0.001 5.66E-05 0.2 0.001 0.000 1.47E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 7.13E-05 0.3

Eglington GO to Guildwood GO 8 3.4 129.5 0.03 5.00 1876 49 600 16 0.002 0.001 6.21E-05 0.2 0.001 0.000 1.62E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 7.83E-05 0.3

Guildwood GO to Rouge Hill GO 8 6.3 129.5 0.05 5.00 1876 92 600 29 0.004 0.001 1.17E-04 0.4 0.001 0.001 3.05E-05 0.1 0.005 0.002 1.47E-04 0.5

Rouge Hill GO to Pickering GO 8 7.3 129.5 0.06 5.00 1876 106 600 34 0.004 0.002 1.34E-04 0.5 0.001 0.001 3.50E-05 0.1 0.005 0.002 1.69E-04 0.6

Pickering GO to Ajax GO 6 3.8 129.5 0.03 5.00 1876 55 600 18 0.002 0.001 5.26E-05 0.2 0.000 0.000 1.37E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 6.64E-05 0.2

Ajax GO to Whitby GO 5 8.6 129.5 0.07 5.00 1876 125 600 40 0.003 0.001 9.95E-05 0.3 0.001 0.001 2.59E-05 0.1 0.004 0.002 1.25E-04 0.4

Whitby GO to Oshawa GO 10 4.4 129.5 0.03 5.00 1876 63 600 20 0.003 0.001 1.00E-04 0.3 0.001 0.001 2.61E-05 0.1 0.004 0.002 1.26E-04 0.5

Stouffville Don River to Kennedy GO 3 13.8 70.9 0.19 5.00 1876 365 600 117 0.005 0.002 1.74E-04 0.6 0.002 0.001 4.54E-05 0.2 0.007 0.003 2.19E-04 0.8

Kennedy GO to Agincourt GO 3 6.3 70.9 0.09 5.00 1876 165 600 53 0.002 0.001 7.89E-05 0.3 0.001 0.000 2.06E-05 0.1 0.003 0.001 9.94E-05 0.4

Agincourt GO to Miliken GO 3 4.3 70.9 0.06 5.00 1876 114 600 36 0.002 0.001 5.44E-05 0.2 0.000 0.000 1.42E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 6.86E-05 0.2

Miliken GO to Unionville GO 3 3.4 70.9 0.05 5.00 1876 89 600 29 0.001 0.000 4.27E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 1.11E-05 0.0 0.002 0.001 5.38E-05 0.2

Unionville GO to Centennial GO 0 3.7 70.9 0.05 5.00 1876 98 600 31 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Centennial GO to Markham GO 0 2.4 70.9 0.03 5.00 1876 64 600 20 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Markham GO to Mount Joy GO 0 1.9 70.9 0.03 5.00 1876 50 600 16 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Mount Joy GO to Stouffville GO 0 8.5 70.9 0.12 5.00 1876 224 600 72 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Stouffville GO to Lincolnville GO 0 3.2 70.9 0.05 5.00 1876 86 600 27 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Richmond Hill Don River to Richmond Hill GO 5 35.7 60.7 0.59 5.00 1876 1102 600 353 0.027 0.010 8.76E-04 3.0 0.008 0.005 2.28E-04 1.0 0.035 0.015 1.10E-03 3.9

Richmond Hill GO to Gormley GO 6 8.6 60.7 0.14 5.00 1876 266 600 85 0.008 0.003 2.54E-04 0.9 0.002 0.001 6.61E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 3.20E-04 1.1

Notes: TOTAL 0.43 0.18 1.35E-02 48

[1] Based on data from the RWDI 2017 Electrification EA study

Sample Calculation for daily NOx emissions from diesel-powered locomotive engines of non-revenue trains travelling between Aldershot GO and Burlington GO stations

Diesel Emissions = Emission Factor x Trains per Day x Time Travelled on Segment x Brakehorse Power / 1000000

Diesel Emissions = 4.94 g 13 trains 0.04 hours travelled 1876 bhp 1 tonne = 0.004 tonnes NOx/day

bhp-hour-train day 1000000 g


Table A-7: Annual Diesel Emissions from 2015 Activity

Present Day Emissions Scenario [1]

Weekday Saturday Sunday Holiday Total

100% 60% 55% 55% N/A

Number of days per year 251 52 52 10 365

NOx (tonnes/day) 4.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 N/A

NOx (tonnes/year) 1194.8 148.5 136.1 26.2 1.51E+03

CO (tonnes/day) 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 N/A

CO (tonnes/year) 485.7 60.4 55.3 10.6 6.12E+02

PM2.5 (tonnes/day) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A

PM2.5 (tonnes/year) 37.9 4.7 4.3 0.8 4.77E+01

CO2e (tonnes/day) 534.5 320.7 294.0 294.0 N/A

CO2e (tonnes/year) 134154.0 16675.7 15286.1 2939.6 1.69E+05

Notes:

[1] Weekday, Saturday, Sunday, Holiday breakdown from Metrolinx Estimation of Annual Energy Consumption by Electric Trains, 2016

Weighting (% of weekday train volume)

Data Item


Rev 00 18-May-2021

APPENDIX B: Diesel Emission Estimation

for Scenario 2

Appendix B - Diesel Emission Estimation for Scenario 2 (future rail service schedule)

Table B-1 Baseline Locomotive Distribution


Distribution [1]Tier

8 Tier 0 [2]

56 Tier 2 [3]

10 Tier 3 [4]

17 Tier 4 [4]

Table B-2: Weighted Locomotive Emission Factors


Distribution [1]Tier CO [2] PM [2] NOx [2]

PM2.5 [3]


8 Tier 0 [2]5 0.22 8 0.21

56 Tier 2 1.5 0.20 5.5 0.19

10 Tier 3 1.5 0.10 5.5 0.10

17 Tier 4 1.5 0.03 1.3 0.03


Notes:


[2] "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression-Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Litres per Cylinder" 73 Federal Register 126 (30 June 2008, pp. 37199


Table B-3. Head End Power (HEP Unit Emission Factors

Locomotive Horsepower Emissions

Distribution[1]Category Tier CO PM NOx PM2.5

[8]


8 - Tier 0 [2]5 0.22 8 0.213

56 > 750 Tier 2 [3]2.6 0.15 4.8 0.146

10 600 - 750 Tier 3 [3]2.6 0.15 4.8 0.146

16 <= 1,200 Tier 4 [4]1.5 0.03 1.3 0.029

1 <= 1,200 Tier 4 [5][7]2.6 0.02 0.5 0.019


Notes:


[2] Tier 0 trains do not have a separate HEP Unit; emission factors are assumed to be the same as that of the locomotive

[3] Tier 2 & Tier 3: "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines" 63 Federal Register 205 (23 October 1998, p. 56970

[4] As per email from Metrolinx, dated December 18, 2019, 16 of the Tier 4 trains do not have separate HEP units; emission factors are assumed to be the same as that of the locomotive

[5] As per email from Metrolinx, dated December 18, 2019, 1 of the Tier 4 trains has a separate HEP unit

Tier 4: "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines and Fuel" 69 Federal Register 124 (29 June 2004, p. 38980

[6] See Locomotive Emission Factors (Table X-X for EF formula references

[7] Tier 4 CO Emission Factor is based on previously applied Tier 2 standard; "Control of Emissions of Air Pollution From Nonroad Diesel Engines and Fuel" 69 Federal Register 124 (29 June 2004, p. 38971


Table B-4. CO2e Emission Factor

CO2e EF (g/L) [1] 2982.75

CO2e EF (g/bhp-hr] 543

Notes:

[1] The CO2e emission factor provided represents a weighted average for all rail activity in Canada; "Locomotive Emissions Monitoring Program 2016", Railway Association of Canada (2016, p. 32)

[2] The emission factor of CO2e was converted from units of g/L to g/bhp-hr assuming a fuel consumption of 20.8 bhp-hr/gal (5.49 bhp-hr/L; "Emission Factors for Locomotives", EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality (2009, p.3

Table B-5: Notch Setting and Corresponding Brake Horsepower for MP40 Locomotive [1]

NOTCH HEP Unit

L. Idle Idle DB[2]1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 N/A

BHP 9 27.8 46.7 231.6 448.7 982.9 1,445 1,876 2,878 3,658 4,230 600

[1] Data from an MP40PH-3C EMD 16-710G3C-T2 engine test on 12/11/07.

[2] DB = dynamic braking.

Emission Factors

Emission Factors


Table B-6: Future Diesel Emissions from Revenue Trains Daily Lomotive Emissions Daiy Head End Power Emissions Total Train Emissions

Rail Corridor Segment D1 Train Frequency [1] D2 Train FrequencySegment Distance

[2] Travel Time [2]Average throttle

settings [3]

Average Engine

Power [3]

Locomotive

Energy Expended

Per Locomotive

Average Head

End Power Rating

Head End Power

Energy

Expended Per

Locomotive


(locomotive trips/day) (locomotive trips/day) (km) (hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (tonnes/day (tonnes/day (tonnes/day

Lakeshore West Exhibition GO to Union Station 87 24 3.2 0.06 5.00 1876 109 600 35 0.060 0.022 1.87E-03 6.6 0.017 0.010 5.04E-04 2.1 0.077 0.032 2.38E-03 8.7

Park Lawn GO to Exhibition GO 87 24 6.0 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.086 0.031 2.68E-03 9.4 0.025 0.015 7.19E-04 3.0 0.110 0.046 3.40E-03 12.4

Mimico GO to Park Lawn GO 87 24 1.6 0.04 5.00 1876 78 600 25 0.043 0.016 1.34E-03 4.7 0.012 0.007 3.60E-04 1.5 0.055 0.023 1.70E-03 6.2

Long Branch GO to Mimico GO 87 24 4.9 0.08 5.00 1876 141 600 45 0.077 0.028 2.41E-03 8.5 0.022 0.013 6.47E-04 2.7 0.099 0.041 3.06E-03 11.2

Port Credit GO to Long Branch GO 87 24 5.3 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.086 0.031 2.68E-03 9.4 0.025 0.015 7.19E-04 3.0 0.110 0.046 3.40E-03 12.4

Clarkson GO to Port Credit GO 87 24 6.1 0.10 5.00 1876 188 600 60 0.103 0.038 3.21E-03 11.3 0.029 0.017 8.63E-04 3.6 0.132 0.055 4.08E-03 14.9

Oakville GO to Clarkson GO 87 24 7.5 0.10 5.00 1876 195 600 63 0.107 0.039 3.35E-03 11.8 0.031 0.018 8.99E-04 3.8 0.138 0.057 4.24E-03 15.5

Bronte GO to Oakville GO 87 24 5.4 0.09 5.00 1876 172 600 55 0.094 0.035 2.94E-03 10.4 0.027 0.016 7.91E-04 3.3 0.121 0.050 3.74E-03 13.7

Appleby GO to Bronte GO 87 24 5.2 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.086 0.031 2.68E-03 9.4 0.025 0.015 7.19E-04 3.0 0.110 0.046 3.40E-03 12.4

Burlington GO to Appleby GO 87 24 5.8 0.10 5.00 1876 195 600 63 0.107 0.039 3.35E-03 11.8 0.031 0.018 8.99E-04 3.8 0.138 0.057 4.24E-03 15.5

Aldershot GO to Burlington GO 76 24 5.0 0.075 5.00 1876 141 600 45 0.069 0.025 2.17E-03 7.6 0.020 0.012 5.83E-04 2.4 0.089 0.037 2.75E-03 10.1

Barrie Allendale GO to Barrie South GO 4 0 5.9 0.14 5.00 1876 266 600 85 0.005 0.002 1.64E-04 0.6 0.002 0.001 4.41E-05 0.2 0.007 0.003 2.08E-04 0.8

Barrie South GO to Innisfil GO 4 0 9.7 0.13 5.00 1876 242 600 78 0.005 0.002 1.50E-04 0.5 0.001 0.001 4.02E-05 0.2 0.006 0.003 1.90E-04 0.7

Innisfil GO to Bradford GO 4 0 19.3 0.23 5.00 1876 438 600 140 0.009 0.003 2.70E-04 1.0 0.002 0.001 7.26E-05 0.3 0.011 0.005 3.43E-04 1.3

Bradford GO to East Gwillimbury GO 8 0 9.9 0.15 5.00 1876 281 600 90 0.011 0.004 3.47E-04 1.2 0.003 0.002 9.33E-05 0.4 0.014 0.006 4.41E-04 1.6

East Gwillimbury GO to Newmarket GO 13 0 1.8 0.05 5.00 1876 94 600 30 0.006 0.002 1.88E-04 0.7 0.002 0.001 5.06E-05 0.2 0.008 0.003 2.39E-04 0.9

Newmarket GO to Aurora GO 13 0 7.2 0.09 5.00 1876 172 600 55 0.011 0.004 3.45E-04 1.2 0.003 0.002 9.27E-05 0.4 0.014 0.006 4.37E-04 1.6

Aurora GO to King City GO 13 0 11.7 0.16 5.00 1876 305 600 98 0.020 0.007 6.11E-04 2.2 0.006 0.003 1.64E-04 0.7 0.025 0.010 7.76E-04 2.8

King City GO to Kirby GO 13 0 3.5 0.07 5.00 1876 125 600 40 0.008 0.003 2.51E-04 0.9 0.002 0.001 6.74E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 3.18E-04 1.2

Kirby GO to Maple GO 13 0 3.5 0.07 5.00 1876 125 600 40 0.008 0.003 2.51E-04 0.9 0.002 0.001 6.74E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 3.18E-04 1.2

Maple GO to Rutherford GO 13 0 2.6 0.05 5.00 1876 102 600 33 0.007 0.002 2.04E-04 0.7 0.002 0.001 5.48E-05 0.2 0.008 0.003 2.59E-04 0.9

Rutherford GO to Downsview Park GO 13 0 9.5 0.13 5.00 1876 250 600 80 0.016 0.006 5.02E-04 1.8 0.005 0.003 1.35E-04 0.6 0.021 0.009 6.36E-04 2.3

Downsview Park GO to Caledonia GO 13 0 7.1 0.10 5.00 1876 195 600 63 0.013 0.005 3.92E-04 1.4 0.004 0.002 1.05E-04 0.4 0.016 0.007 4.97E-04 1.8

Caledonia GO to Bloor-Landsdowne GO 13 0 4.2 0.07 5.00 1876 125 600 40 0.008 0.003 2.51E-04 0.9 0.002 0.001 6.74E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 3.18E-04 1.2

Bloor-Landsdowne GO to Spadina GO 13 0 5.0 0.07 5.00 1876 133 600 43 0.009 0.003 2.66E-04 0.9 0.002 0.001 7.16E-05 0.3 0.011 0.005 3.38E-04 1.2

Spadina GO to Union Station 13 0 1.1 0.03 5.00 1876 63 600 20 0.004 0.001 1.25E-04 0.4 0.001 0.001 3.37E-05 0.1 0.005 0.002 1.59E-04 0.6

Kitchener Bramlea GO to Malton GO 92 144 4.3 0.08 4.00 1445 108 600 45 0.126 0.046 3.94E-03 13.9 0.047 0.028 1.38E-03 5.8 0.173 0.074 5.32E-03 19.6

Malton GO to Woodbine GO 92 144 3.6 0.05 4.00 1445 72 600 30 0.084 0.031 2.63E-03 9.3 0.031 0.019 9.18E-04 3.8 0.115 0.049 3.55E-03 13.1

Woodbine GO to Weston GO 92 144 6.6 0.10 4.00 1445 138 600 58 0.161 0.059 5.04E-03 17.7 0.060 0.036 1.76E-03 7.4 0.221 0.095 6.80E-03 25.1

Weston GO to St. Clair - Old Weston GO 92 144 4.8 0.03 4.00 1445 48 600 20 0.056 0.021 1.75E-03 6.2 0.021 0.012 6.12E-04 2.6 0.077 0.033 2.37E-03 8.7

St. Clair - Old Weston GO to Mount Dennis GO 92 144 2.5 0.06 4.00 1445 90 600 38 0.105 0.039 3.29E-03 11.6 0.039 0.023 1.15E-03 4.8 0.144 0.062 4.43E-03 16.4

Mount Dennis GO to Bloor GO 92 144 4.7 0.05 4.00 1445 78 600 33 0.091 0.033 2.85E-03 10.0 0.034 0.020 9.94E-04 4.2 0.125 0.053 3.84E-03 14.2

Bloor GO to King-Liberty GO 92 144 3.2 0.06 4.00 1445 84 600 35 0.098 0.036 3.07E-03 10.8 0.036 0.022 1.07E-03 4.5 0.135 0.058 4.14E-03 15.3

King-Liberty GO to Union Station 92 144 3.2 0.07 4.00 1445 96 600 40 0.112 0.041 3.51E-03 12.3 0.042 0.025 1.22E-03 5.1 0.154 0.066 4.73E-03 17.5

Lakeshore East Union Station to East Harbour GO 40 110 2.8 0.05 5.00 1876 102 600 33 0.075 0.028 2.35E-03 8.3 0.022 0.013 6.32E-04 2.6 0.097 0.040 2.98E-03 10.9

East Harbour GO to Danforth GO 40 110 5.8 0.06 5.00 1876 117 600 38 0.087 0.032 2.71E-03 9.5 0.025 0.015 7.29E-04 3.1 0.112 0.047 3.44E-03 12.6

Danforth GO to Scarborough GO 40 110 5.2 0.07 5.00 1876 125 600 40 0.093 0.034 2.89E-03 10.2 0.027 0.016 7.78E-04 3.3 0.119 0.050 3.67E-03 13.4

Scarborough GO to Eglinton GO 40 110 3.1 0.04 5.00 1876 78 600 25 0.058 0.021 1.81E-03 6.4 0.017 0.010 4.86E-04 2.0 0.074 0.031 2.29E-03 8.4

Eglinton GO to Guildwood GO 40 110 3.4 0.04 5.00 1876 78 600 25 0.058 0.021 1.81E-03 6.4 0.017 0.010 4.86E-04 2.0 0.074 0.031 2.29E-03 8.4

Guildwood GO to Rouge Hill GO 40 110 6.3 0.08 5.00 1876 141 600 45 0.104 0.038 3.26E-03 11.5 0.030 0.018 8.75E-04 3.7 0.134 0.056 4.13E-03 15.1

Rouge Hill GO to Pickering GO 40 110 7.3 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.116 0.042 3.62E-03 12.7 0.033 0.020 9.72E-04 4.1 0.149 0.062 4.59E-03 16.8

Pickering GO to Ajax GO 38 82 3.8 0.04 5.00 1876 78 600 25 0.046 0.017 1.45E-03 5.1 0.013 0.008 3.89E-04 1.6 0.060 0.025 1.84E-03 6.7

Ajax GO to Whitby GO 38 82 8.6 0.08 5.00 1876 156 600 50 0.093 0.034 2.89E-03 10.2 0.027 0.016 7.78E-04 3.3 0.119 0.050 3.67E-03 13.4

Whitby GO to Oshawa GO 38 82 4.4 0.06 5.00 1876 117 600 38 0.069 0.025 2.17E-03 7.6 0.020 0.012 5.83E-04 2.4 0.089 0.037 2.75E-03 10.1

Stouffville Union Station to East Harbour GO 14 0 2.8 0.05 4.00 1445 78 600 33 0.005 0.002 1.69E-04 0.6 0.002 0.001 5.90E-05 0.2 0.007 0.003 2.28E-04 0.8

East Harbour GO to Danforth GO 14 0 5.8 0.06 4.00 1445 90 600 38 0.006 0.002 1.95E-04 0.7 0.002 0.001 6.80E-05 0.3 0.009 0.004 2.63E-04 1.0

Danforth GO to Kennedy GO 14 0 8.7 0.18 4.00 1445 265 600 110 0.018 0.007 5.72E-04 2.0 0.007 0.004 2.00E-04 0.8 0.025 0.011 7.72E-04 2.8

Kennedy GO to Lawrence East GO 14 0 2.2 0.04 4.00 1445 60 600 25 0.004 0.002 1.30E-04 0.5 0.002 0.001 4.54E-05 0.2 0.006 0.002 1.75E-04 0.6

Lawrence East GO to Agincourt GO 14 0 4.2 0.08 4.00 1445 108 600 45 0.007 0.003 2.34E-04 0.8 0.003 0.002 8.17E-05 0.3 0.010 0.004 3.16E-04 1.2

Agincourt GO to Finch Avenue GO 14 0 1.9 0.03 4.00 1445 48 600 20 0.003 0.001 1.04E-04 0.4 0.001 0.001 3.63E-05 0.2 0.005 0.002 1.40E-04 0.5

Finch Avenue GO to Milliken GO 14 0 2.3 0.04 4.00 1445 60 600 25 0.004 0.002 1.30E-04 0.5 0.002 0.001 4.54E-05 0.2 0.006 0.002 1.75E-04 0.6

Milliken GO to Unionville GO 14 0 3.4 0.06 4.00 1445 84 600 35 0.006 0.002 1.82E-04 0.6 0.002 0.001 6.35E-05 0.3 0.008 0.003 2.46E-04 0.9

Unionville GO to Centennial GO 4 0 3.7 0.06 4.00 1445 84 600 35 0.002 0.001 5.20E-05 0.2 0.001 0.000 1.81E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 7.02E-05 0.3

Centennial GO to Markham GO 4 0 2.4 0.04 4.00 1445 60 600 25 0.001 0.000 3.71E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 1.30E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 5.01E-05 0.2

Markham GO to Mount Joy GO 4 0 1.9 0.04 4.00 1445 60 600 25 0.001 0.000 3.71E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 1.30E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 5.01E-05 0.2


Table B-6: Future Diesel Emissions from Revenue Trains Daily Lomotive Emissions Daiy Head End Power Emissions Total Train Emissions

Rail Corridor Segment D1 Train Frequency [1] D2 Train FrequencySegment Distance

[2] Travel Time [2]Average throttle

settings [3]

Average Engine

Power [3]

Locomotive

Energy Expended

Per Locomotive

Average Head

End Power Rating

Head End Power

Energy

Expended Per

Locomotive


(locomotive trips/day) (locomotive trips/day) (km) (hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (tonnes/day (tonnes/day (tonnes/day

Mount Joy GO Stouffville GO 2 0 8.4 0.13 4.00 1445 181 600 75 0.002 0.001 5.57E-05 0.2 0.001 0.000 1.94E-05 0.1 0.002 0.001 7.52E-05 0.3

Stoufville GO to Lincolnville GO 2 0 1.6 0.06 4.00 1445 84 600 35 0.001 0.000 2.60E-05 0.1 0.000 0.000 9.07E-06 0.0 0.001 0.000 3.51E-05 0.1

Richmond Hill Union Station to Oriole GO 21 36 20.1 0.38 5.00 1876 704 600 225 0.198 0.072 6.18E-03 21.8 0.057 0.034 1.66E-03 7.0 0.255 0.106 7.85E-03 28.7

Oriole GO to Old Cummer GO 21 36 2.6 0.07 5.00 1876 125 600 40 0.035 0.013 1.10E-03 3.9 0.010 0.006 2.96E-04 1.2 0.045 0.019 1.40E-03 5.1

Old Cummer GO to Langstaff GO 21 36 3.2 0.12 5.00 1876 219 600 70 0.062 0.023 1.92E-03 6.8 0.018 0.010 5.17E-04 2.2 0.079 0.033 2.44E-03 8.9

Langstaff GO Richmond Hill GO 21 36 4.3 0.10 5.00 1876 188 600 60 0.053 0.019 1.65E-03 5.8 0.015 0.009 4.43E-04 1.9 0.068 0.028 2.09E-03 7.7

Richmond Hill GO to Gromley GO 21 36 8.5 0.18 5.00 1876 328 600 105 0.092 0.034 2.89E-03 10.2 0.026 0.016 7.76E-04 3.2 0.119 0.049 3.66E-03 13.4

Gromley GO to Bloomington GO 21 36 4.0 0.13 5.00 1876 250 600 80 0.070 0.026 2.20E-03 7.7 0.020 0.012 5.91E-04 2.5 0.091 0.038 2.79E-03 10.2

Notes: TOTAL 4.27 1.79 0.13 482.68

[1] Based on Future train schedules provided by Metrolinx (representing 2037)

[2] Based on TSS1 schedules provided by Metrolinx. Note that TSS1 no longer represents the train volumes, but was assumed to represent travel times and station distances

[3] Based on data from 2019 OnCorr study data

Emissions from Non-Revenue Trains

Table B-7: Future Diesel Emissions from Non-Revenue Trains Daily Lomotive Emissions Daiy Head End Power Emissions Total Train Emissions

Rail Corridor SegmentDiesel Train Frequency

[1]D2 Train Frequency

Segment Distance

[2]Average Speed Travel Time

Average throttle

settings

Average Engine

Power

Locomotive

Energy Expended

Per Locomotive

Average Head

End Power

Rating

Head End Power

Energy Expended

Per Locomotive


(locomotive trips/day) (locomotive trips/day) (km) (km/hr) (hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (bhp) (bhp-hr) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day)

Lakeshore West Beach/Appleby Layover to Burlington Station 0 0 1.22 138.9 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Burlington Station to Willowbrook RMF 0 0 39.71 138.9 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Willowbrook RMF to Union Station 8 32 12.94 138.9 0.23 5.00 1876 432 600 138 0.085 0.031 2.67E-03 9.4 0.024 0.014 7.17E-04 3.0 0.110 0.046 3.38E-03 12.4

Barrie Allandale Layover to Allandale Waterfront Station 0 0 1.1 9.6 0.00 1.00 232 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Bradford Station to Allandale Waterfront Station 0 0 34.3 9.6 0.00 1.00 232 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Bradford Station to Bradford Layover 0 0 2.7 9.6 0.00 1.00 232 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

East Gwillimbury Station to Scanlon Layover 0 0 12.5 9.6 0.00 1.00 232 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

East Gwillimbury Station to Bradford Station 0 0 9.8 9.6 0.00 1.00 232 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Rutherford Station to Aurora Station 0 0 21.3 9.6 0.00 1.00 232 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Union Station to Bathurst North Yard 0 0 1.6 9.6 0.00 1.00 232 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Kitchener Pearson Station to Resources Road Equipment Storage 0 0 8.25 - - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Pearson Station to Weston Station 0 0 11.02 - - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Lakeshore East Bowmanville Station to Whitby RMF 13 12 21.77 135.6 0.09 5.00 1876 166 600 53 0.020 0.008 6.40E-04 2.3 0.006 0.003 1.72E-04 0.7 0.026 0.011 8.12E-04 3.0

Oshawa North Station to Whitby RMF 0 8 3 135.6 0.06 5.00 1876 111 600 35 0.004 0.002 1.37E-04 0.5 0.001 0.001 3.67E-05 0.2 0.006 0.002 1.73E-04 0.6

Whitby RMF to Union Station 7 0 48.45 135.6 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Whitby RMF to Midland Layover 1 0 33.4 135.6 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Midland Layover to Union Station 1 26 15.05 135.6 0.19 5.00 1876 360 600 115 0.048 0.018 1.50E-03 5.3 0.014 0.008 4.03E-04 1.7 0.062 0.026 1.90E-03 7.0

Wilson Yard to Union Station 0 8 2.66 135.6 0.06 5.00 1876 111 600 35 0.004 0.002 1.37E-04 0.5 0.001 0.001 3.67E-05 0.2 0.006 0.002 1.73E-04 0.6

Don Yard to Union Station 10 22 2.58 135.6 0.16 5.00 1876 304 600 97 0.048 0.018 1.50E-03 5.3 0.014 0.008 4.04E-04 1.7 0.062 0.026 1.91E-03 7.0

Stouffville Lincolnville Layover to Lincolnville Station 0 0 0.4 70.0 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Lincolnville Layover to Stouffville Station 0 0 3.4 70.0 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Lincolnville Layover to Mt. Joy Station 0 0 11.6 70.0 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Lincolnville Layover to Unionville Station 0 0 19.6 70.0 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Stouffville Station to Mt. Joy Station 0 0 8.2 70.0 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Unionville Station to Unionville Layover 0 0 0.9 70.0 0.00 5.00 1876 0 600 0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.0

Richmond Hill Belleville Don Branch Layover to Union 0 12 5.82 63.0 0.19 5.00 1876 357 600 114 0.021 0.008 6.61E-04 2.3 0.006 0.004 1.78E-04 0.7 0.027 0.011 8.39E-04 3.1

[1] Based on Future train schedules provided by Metrolinx TOTAL 0.30 0.12 9.19E-03 34

[2] Based on TSS1 schedules provided by Metrolinx. Note that TSS1 no longer represents the train volumes, but was assumed to represent station distances

[3] Based on data from 2019 OnCorr study data

Sample Calculation for daily NOx emissions from diesel-powered locomotive engines of revenue trains travelling between Park Lawn GO and Exhibition GO stations

Disesel Emission = Locomotive Engine Emission Factor x Trains per Day x Time Travelled on Segment x Brake Horsepower / 1000000

Diesel Emissions = 4.94 g 111 locomotives 0.08 hours travelled 1876 bhp 1 tonne = 0.086 tonnes NOx

bhp-hour-train day 1000000 g day

Table B-8: Annual Diesel Emissions from Future Schedule

TSS1+ Diesel Emissions Scenario

Weekday Saturday Sunday Holiday Total

100% 60% 55% 55% N/A


NOx (tonnes/day) 4.57E+00 2.74E+00 2.51E+00 2.51E+00 N/A

NOx (tonnes/year) 1.15E+03 1.43E+02 1.31E+02 2.51E+01 1.44E+03

CO (tonnes/day) 1.9167 1.15E+00 1.05E+00 1.05E+00 N/A

CO (tonnes/year) 4.81E+02 5.98E+01 5.48E+01 1.05E+01 6.06E+02

PM2.5 (tonnes/day) 1.41E-01 8.44E-02 7.74E-02 7.74E-02 N/A

PM2.5 (tonnes/year) 3.53E+01 4.39E+00 4.02E+00 7.74E-01 4.45E+01

CO2e (tonnes/day) 5.16E+02 3.10E+02 2.84E+02 2.84E+02 N/A

CO2e (tonnes/year) 1.30E+05 1.61E+04 1.48E+04 2.84E+03 1.63E+05

Notes:


Data Item

Weighting (% of weekday train volume


Rev 00 18-May-2021

APPENDIX C: Electric Emission Estimation

for Scenario 2

Appendix C - Electric Power Emission Estimation for Scenario 2 (TSS1+ rail service schedule)

Table C-1: 2019 Ontario Electricity Output

Fuel TypeElectricity Output

(MWh) [1]

Nuclear 90,149,173

Hydroelectric 36,208,506

Gas 9,569,538

Biofuel 421,591

Solar 569,649

Wind 10,662,356

TOTAL 147,580,813

[1] Ontario Energy Board and IESO, Ontario Energy Report Q1 2019.

Table C-2: 2019 Emissions from the Ontario Electricity Sector

PollutantEmissions

(tonnes/year) [1]

NOx 5,924

PM2.5 210

CO2e 4,000,000

[1] Ontario Energy Board and IESO, Ontario Energy Report Q1 2019.

Table C-3: Emission Factors For Gas Electricity Generation

Pollutant

Emission Factor for Average

Electricity Production

(tonnes/MWh) [1]

Emission Factor for Capacity


(tonnes/MWh) [1][2]

Emission Factor for Fossil Fuel


(tonnes/MWh) [3]

NOx 4.01E-05 1.72E-04 5.93E-04

CO [3] 2.06E-05 8.81E-05 3.17E-04

PM2.5 [1] 1.42E-06 6.10E-06 2.10E-05

CO2e [1] 2.71E-02 1.16E-01 4.00E-01

Notes:

[1] Emission factor for average electricity production assumes that all emissions in Table 2 are from the total electricity production in Table 1.

[2] Emission factor for capacity electricity production assumes that 28% of electricity production is from Gas and the remainder is from renewable sources.

[3] Calculated based on emission factors from uncontrolled stationary gas turbines (U.S. EPA AP-42 Chapter 3.1).

The emission factor of 0.082 lb/MMBtu fuel input was converted to tonnes/MWh electricity output assuming a turbine efficiency of 40%.

This efficiency is at the high end for simple cycle turbines and at the low end for combined cycle turbines and thus is expected to be a reasonable average for gas power plants.

Table C-4: Energy Consumption Rate

Regenerative BrakingEnergy Consumption Rate

kWh/(Ton-mile) [1]

On 0.09212

Off 0.10095

[1] Energy Consumption Rate from Metrolinx Estimation of Annual Energy Consumption by Electric Trains, 2016

Table C-5 Mass of Train Consists

Train Mass

(tons)

Revenue Trains 964

Non-Revenue Trains 803

[1] Energy Consumption Rate from Metrolinx Estimation of Annual Energy Consumption by Electric Trains, 2016

Table C-6: Future Emissions from Electric Revenue Trains

Rail Corridor Revenue Train TripsNon-Revenue Train

Trips

Segment

Distance

Segment

DistanceRevenue Miles Non-Revenue Miles NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e NOx CO PM2.5 CO2e

(trips/day) (trips/day) (km) (miles) (miles) (miles) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day) (tonnes/day)

Lakeshore West Exhibition GO to Union Station 243 52 3.2 2.0 486.0 104.0 0.002 0.001 7.24E-05 1.378 0.002 0.001 7.93E-05 1.510 0.009 0.004 3.10E-04 5.905 0.010 0.005 3.40E-04 6.471 0.030 0.016 1.07E-03 20.359 0.033 0.018 1.17E-03 22.310

Park Lawn GO to Exhibition GO 243 52 6.0 3.7 899.1 192.4 0.004 0.002 1.34E-04 2.550 0.004 0.002 1.47E-04 2.794 0.016 0.008 5.74E-04 10.925 0.018 0.009 6.29E-04 11.972 0.056 0.030 1.98E-03 37.664 0.061 0.033 2.17E-03 41.274

Mimico GO to Park Lawn GO 243 52 1.6 1.0 243.0 52.0 0.001 0.001 3.62E-05 0.689 0.001 0.001 3.96E-05 0.755 0.004 0.002 1.55E-04 2.953 0.005 0.002 1.70E-04 3.236 0.015 0.008 5.34E-04 10.179 0.017 0.009 5.86E-04 11.155

Long Branch GO to Mimico GO 243 8 4.9 3.0 739.9 24.4 0.003 0.001 9.61E-05 1.830 0.003 0.002 1.05E-04 2.005 0.012 0.006 4.12E-04 7.839 0.013 0.007 4.51E-04 8.591 0.040 0.021 1.42E-03 27.026 0.044 0.023 1.55E-03 29.616

Port Credit GO to Long Branch GO 243 8 5.3 3.3 800.3 26.3 0.003 0.002 1.04E-04 1.979 0.003 0.002 1.14E-04 2.169 0.013 0.006 4.45E-04 8.479 0.014 0.007 4.88E-04 9.292 0.043 0.023 1.53E-03 29.232 0.047 0.025 1.68E-03 32.034

Clarkson GO to Port Credit GO 243 8 6.1 3.8 921.1 30.3 0.003 0.002 1.20E-04 2.278 0.004 0.002 1.31E-04 2.496 0.014 0.007 5.12E-04 9.759 0.016 0.008 5.61E-04 10.695 0.050 0.027 1.77E-03 33.644 0.055 0.029 1.94E-03 36.869

Oakville GO to Clarkson GO 243 8 7.5 4.7 1132.4 37.3 0.004 0.002 1.47E-04 2.800 0.005 0.002 1.61E-04 3.069 0.018 0.009 6.30E-04 11.999 0.019 0.010 6.90E-04 13.149 0.061 0.033 2.17E-03 41.366 0.067 0.036 2.38E-03 45.331

Bronte GO to Oakville GO 243 8 5.4 3.4 815.4 26.8 0.003 0.002 1.06E-04 2.016 0.003 0.002 1.16E-04 2.210 0.013 0.007 4.54E-04 8.639 0.014 0.007 4.97E-04 9.467 0.044 0.024 1.56E-03 29.784 0.048 0.026 1.71E-03 32.638

Appleby GO to Bronte GO 243 8 5.2 3.2 785.2 25.8 0.003 0.001 1.02E-04 1.942 0.003 0.002 1.12E-04 2.128 0.012 0.006 4.37E-04 8.319 0.014 0.007 4.79E-04 9.117 0.042 0.023 1.51E-03 28.680 0.047 0.025 1.65E-03 31.430

Burlington GO to Appleby GO 243 82 5.8 3.6 875.8 295.5 0.004 0.002 1.42E-04 2.700 0.004 0.002 1.55E-04 2.959 0.017 0.009 6.07E-04 11.570 0.019 0.010 6.66E-04 12.679 0.059 0.032 2.09E-03 39.888 0.065 0.035 2.29E-03 43.711

Aldershot GO to Burlington GO 0 0 5.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Barrie Allendale GO to Barrie South GO 88 52 5.9 3.6 319.9 189.0 0.002 0.001 6.03E-05 1.149 0.002 0.001 6.61E-05 1.259 0.007 0.004 2.58E-04 4.923 0.008 0.004 2.83E-04 5.394 0.025 0.013 8.91E-04 16.971 0.028 0.015 9.76E-04 18.597

Barrie South GO to Innisfil GO 88 0 9.7 6.0 528.0 0.0 0.002 0.001 6.67E-05 1.271 0.002 0.001 7.31E-05 1.393 0.008 0.004 2.86E-04 5.445 0.009 0.005 3.13E-04 5.967 0.028 0.015 9.86E-04 18.772 0.030 0.016 1.08E-03 20.571

Innisfil GO to Bradford GO 88 30 19.3 12.0 1056.0 360.0 0.005 0.002 1.71E-04 3.263 0.005 0.003 1.88E-04 3.576 0.021 0.011 7.34E-04 13.983 0.023 0.012 8.04E-04 15.323 0.071 0.038 2.53E-03 48.205 0.078 0.042 2.77E-03 52.826

Bradford GO to East Gwillimbury GO 265 0 9.9 6.1 1621.9 0.0 0.006 0.003 2.05E-04 3.904 0.006 0.003 2.25E-04 4.278 0.025 0.013 8.78E-04 16.727 0.027 0.014 9.62E-04 18.330 0.085 0.046 3.03E-03 57.665 0.094 0.050 3.32E-03 63.192

East Gwillimbury GO to Newmarket GO 265 0 1.8 1.1 303.0 0.0 0.001 0.001 3.83E-05 0.729 0.001 0.001 4.20E-05 0.799 0.005 0.002 1.64E-04 3.125 0.005 0.003 1.80E-04 3.424 0.016 0.009 5.66E-04 10.772 0.017 0.009 6.20E-04 11.804

Newmarket GO to Aurora GO 265 0 7.2 4.5 1187.2 0.0 0.004 0.002 1.50E-04 2.858 0.005 0.002 1.64E-04 3.131 0.018 0.009 6.43E-04 12.243 0.020 0.010 7.04E-04 13.417 0.063 0.033 2.22E-03 42.209 0.069 0.037 2.43E-03 46.255

Aurora GO to King City GO 265 0 11.7 7.2 1920.0 0.0 0.007 0.004 2.43E-04 4.621 0.008 0.004 2.66E-04 5.064 0.029 0.015 1.04E-03 19.800 0.032 0.016 1.14E-03 21.698 0.101 0.054 3.58E-03 68.261 0.111 0.059 3.93E-03 74.804

King City GO to Kirby GO 265 0 3.5 2.2 583.0 0.0 0.002 0.001 7.37E-05 1.403 0.002 0.001 8.07E-05 1.538 0.009 0.005 3.16E-04 6.012 0.010 0.005 3.46E-04 6.589 0.031 0.016 1.09E-03 20.727 0.034 0.018 1.19E-03 22.714

Kirby GO to Maple GO 265 0 3.5 2.2 583.0 0.0 0.002 0.001 7.37E-05 1.403 0.002 0.001 8.07E-05 1.538 0.009 0.005 3.16E-04 6.012 0.010 0.005 3.46E-04 6.589 0.031 0.016 1.09E-03 20.727 0.034 0.018 1.19E-03 22.714

Maple GO to Rutherford GO 265 0 2.6 1.6 431.4 0.0 0.002 0.001 5.45E-05 1.038 0.002 0.001 5.97E-05 1.138 0.007 0.003 2.34E-04 4.449 0.007 0.004 2.56E-04 4.876 0.023 0.012 8.05E-04 15.338 0.025 0.013 8.82E-04 16.808

Rutherford GO to Downsview Park GO 265 0 9.5 5.9 1563.5 0.0 0.006 0.003 1.98E-04 3.763 0.006 0.003 2.17E-04 4.124 0.024 0.012 8.47E-04 16.124 0.026 0.013 9.28E-04 17.669 0.082 0.044 2.92E-03 55.587 0.090 0.048 3.20E-03 60.915

Downsview Park GO to Caledonia GO 265 0 7.1 4.4 1166.0 0.0 0.004 0.002 1.47E-04 2.806 0.005 0.002 1.61E-04 3.075 0.018 0.009 6.31E-04 12.025 0.020 0.010 6.92E-04 13.177 0.061 0.033 2.18E-03 41.455 0.067 0.036 2.38E-03 45.428

Caledonia GO to Bloor-Landsdowne GO 265 0 4.2 2.6 689.0 0.0 0.002 0.001 8.71E-05 1.658 0.003 0.001 9.54E-05 1.817 0.011 0.005 3.73E-04 7.105 0.012 0.006 4.09E-04 7.787 0.036 0.019 1.29E-03 24.496 0.040 0.021 1.41E-03 26.844

Bloor-Landsdowne GO to Spadina GO 265 0 5.0 3.1 821.5 0.0 0.003 0.002 1.04E-04 1.977 0.003 0.002 1.14E-04 2.167 0.013 0.006 4.45E-04 8.472 0.014 0.007 4.87E-04 9.284 0.043 0.023 1.53E-03 29.207 0.047 0.025 1.68E-03 32.006

Spadina GO to Union Station 265 0 1.1 0.7 185.5 0.0 0.001 0.000 2.34E-05 0.446 0.001 0.000 2.57E-05 0.489 0.003 0.001 1.00E-04 1.913 0.003 0.002 1.10E-04 2.096 0.010 0.005 3.46E-04 6.595 0.011 0.006 3.79E-04 7.227

Kitchener Bramlea GO to Malton GO 0 0 4.3 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Malton GO to Woodbine GO 0 0 3.6 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Woodbine GO to Weston GO 217 8 6.6 4.1 883.2 32.6 0.003 0.002 1.15E-04 2.191 0.004 0.002 1.26E-04 2.401 0.014 0.007 4.93E-04 9.388 0.015 0.008 5.40E-04 10.288 0.048 0.026 1.70E-03 32.364 0.053 0.028 1.86E-03 35.467

Weston GO to St. Clair - Old Weston GO 217 9 4.8 3.0 651.0 27.0 0.002 0.001 8.51E-05 1.621 0.003 0.001 9.33E-05 1.776 0.010 0.005 3.65E-04 6.946 0.011 0.006 4.00E-04 7.611 0.035 0.019 1.26E-03 23.945 0.039 0.021 1.38E-03 26.240

St. Clair - Old Weston GO to Mount Dennis GO 217 9 2.5 1.5 332.0 13.8 0.001 0.001 4.34E-05 0.827 0.001 0.001 4.76E-05 0.906 0.005 0.003 1.86E-04 3.542 0.006 0.003 2.04E-04 3.882 0.018 0.010 6.41E-04 12.212 0.020 0.011 7.03E-04 13.382

Mount Dennis GO to Bloor GO 217 9 4.7 2.9 635.8 26.4 0.002 0.001 8.31E-05 1.583 0.003 0.001 9.11E-05 1.735 0.010 0.005 3.56E-04 6.783 0.011 0.006 3.90E-04 7.434 0.035 0.019 1.23E-03 23.386 0.038 0.020 1.35E-03 25.628

Bloor GO to King-Liberty GO 217 9 3.2 2.0 434.0 18.0 0.002 0.001 5.67E-05 1.081 0.002 0.001 6.22E-05 1.184 0.007 0.004 2.43E-04 4.630 0.008 0.004 2.66E-04 5.074 0.024 0.013 8.38E-04 15.963 0.026 0.014 9.18E-04 17.493

King-Liberty GO to Union Station 217 9 3.2 2.0 434.0 18.0 0.002 0.001 5.67E-05 1.081 0.002 0.001 6.22E-05 1.184 0.007 0.004 2.43E-04 4.630 0.008 0.004 2.66E-04 5.074 0.024 0.013 8.38E-04 15.963 0.026 0.014 9.18E-04 17.493

Lakeshore East Union Station to East Harbour GO 257 18 2.8 1.7 444.6 31.1 0.002 0.001 5.95E-05 1.133 0.002 0.001 6.52E-05 1.241 0.007 0.004 2.55E-04 4.853 0.008 0.004 2.79E-04 5.318 0.025 0.013 8.78E-04 16.729 0.027 0.015 9.62E-04 18.333

East Harbour GO to Danforth GO 257 18 5.8 3.6 923.9 64.7 0.003 0.002 1.24E-04 2.354 0.004 0.002 1.35E-04 2.579 0.015 0.008 5.29E-04 10.084 0.016 0.008 5.80E-04 11.051 0.051 0.028 1.83E-03 34.764 0.056 0.030 2.00E-03 38.097

Danforth GO to Scarborough GO 257 18 5.2 3.2 833.6 58.4 0.003 0.002 1.11E-04 2.123 0.003 0.002 1.22E-04 2.327 0.013 0.007 4.78E-04 9.098 0.015 0.008 5.23E-04 9.970 0.046 0.025 1.65E-03 31.366 0.051 0.027 1.80E-03 34.372

Scarborough GO to Eglinton GO 257 18 3.1 1.9 490.3 34.3 0.002 0.001 6.56E-05 1.249 0.002 0.001 7.18E-05 1.369 0.008 0.004 2.81E-04 5.351 0.009 0.004 3.08E-04 5.864 0.027 0.015 9.68E-04 18.447 0.030 0.016 1.06E-03 20.215

Eglinton GO to Guildwood GO 257 18 3.4 2.1 538.2 37.7 0.002 0.001 7.20E-05 1.371 0.002 0.001 7.89E-05 1.502 0.009 0.004 3.08E-04 5.874 0.010 0.005 3.38E-04 6.437 0.030 0.016 1.06E-03 20.250 0.033 0.018 1.17E-03 22.191

Guildwood GO to Rouge Hill GO 257 18 6.3 3.9 1012.4 70.9 0.004 0.002 1.35E-04 2.579 0.004 0.002 1.48E-04 2.826 0.016 0.008 5.80E-04 11.050 0.018 0.009 6.36E-04 12.109 0.056 0.030 2.00E-03 38.096 0.062 0.033 2.19E-03 41.747

Rouge Hill GO to Pickering GO 257 18 7.3 4.5 1164.2 81.5 0.004 0.002 1.56E-04 2.966 0.005 0.002 1.71E-04 3.250 0.019 0.010 6.67E-04 12.706 0.021 0.011 7.31E-04 13.924 0.065 0.035 2.30E-03 43.804 0.071 0.038 2.52E-03 48.003

Pickering GO to Ajax GO 257 18 3.8 2.4 608.4 42.6 0.002 0.001 8.14E-05 1.550 0.003 0.001 8.92E-05 1.698 0.010 0.005 3.49E-04 6.641 0.011 0.006 3.82E-04 7.277 0.034 0.018 1.20E-03 22.893 0.037 0.020 1.32E-03 25.088

Ajax GO to Whitby GO 257 18 8.6 5.4 1379.7 96.6 0.005 0.003 1.85E-04 3.515 0.006 0.003 2.02E-04 3.852 0.022 0.011 7.91E-04 15.059 0.024 0.013 8.66E-04 16.502 0.077 0.041 2.73E-03 51.916 0.084 0.045 2.99E-03 56.892

Whitby GO to Oshawa GO 257 63 4.4 2.7 694.7 170.3 0.003 0.002 1.06E-04 2.013 0.003 0.002 1.16E-04 2.206 0.013 0.007 4.53E-04 8.627 0.014 0.007 4.96E-04 9.454 0.044 0.024 1.56E-03 29.740 0.048 0.026 1.71E-03 32.591

Stouffville Union Station to East Harbour GO 454 4 2.8 1.7 785.4 6.9 0.003 0.001 1.00E-04 1.904 0.003 0.002 1.10E-04 2.087 0.012 0.006 4.28E-04 8.159 0.013 0.007 4.69E-04 8.941 0.042 0.022 1.48E-03 28.129 0.046 0.024 1.62E-03 30.825

East Harbour GO to Danforth GO 454 4 5.8 3.6 1632.1 14.4 0.006 0.003 2.08E-04 3.957 0.006 0.003 2.28E-04 4.337 0.025 0.013 8.90E-04 16.955 0.028 0.014 9.75E-04 18.580 0.087 0.046 3.07E-03 58.453 0.095 0.051 3.36E-03 64.056

Danforth GO to Kennedy GO 454 4 8.7 5.4 2441.3 21.5 0.009 0.004 3.11E-04 5.919 0.010 0.005 3.41E-04 6.487 0.038 0.019 1.33E-03 25.361 0.041 0.021 1.46E-03 27.792 0.129 0.069 4.59E-03 87.433 0.142 0.076 5.03E-03 95.814

Kennedy GO to Lawrence East GO 454 4 2.2 1.4 626.5 5.5 0.002 0.001 7.98E-05 1.519 0.002 0.001 8.74E-05 1.665 0.010 0.005 3.42E-04 6.509 0.011 0.005 3.74E-04 7.132 0.033 0.018 1.18E-03 22.438 0.036 0.019 1.29E-03 24.589

Lawrence East GO to Agincourt GO 454 4 4.2 2.6 1189.5 10.5 0.004 0.002 1.51E-04 2.884 0.005 0.002 1.66E-04 3.160 0.018 0.009 6.49E-04 12.357 0.020 0.010 7.11E-04 13.541 0.063 0.034 2.24E-03 42.600 0.069 0.037 2.45E-03 46.683

Agincourt GO to Finch Avenue GO 454 4 1.9 1.2 526.6 4.6 0.002 0.001 6.70E-05 1.277 0.002 0.001 7.35E-05 1.399 0.008 0.004 2.87E-04 5.471 0.009 0.005 3.15E-04 5.995 0.028 0.015 9.90E-04 18.861 0.031 0.016 1.09E-03 20.669

Finch Avenue GO to Milliken GO 448 4 2.3 1.4 645.1 5.8 0.002 0.001 8.21E-05 1.564 0.003 0.001 9.00E-05 1.714 0.010 0.005 3.52E-04 6.702 0.011 0.006 3.86E-04 7.345 0.034 0.018 1.21E-03 23.107 0.038 0.020 1.33E-03 25.321

Milliken GO to Unionville GO 454 8 3.4 2.1 953.4 16.8 0.003 0.002 1.22E-04 2.328 0.004 0.002 1.34E-04 2.552 0.015 0.008 5.24E-04 9.976 0.016 0.008 5.74E-04 10.933 0.051 0.027 1.81E-03 34.394 0.056 0.030 1.98E-03 37.691

Unionville GO to Centennial GO 136 2 3.7 2.3 312.8 4.6 0.001 0.001 4.00E-05 0.762 0.001 0.001 4.38E-05 0.835 0.005 0.002 1.71E-04 3.265 0.005 0.003 1.88E-04 3.578 0.017 0.009 5.91E-04 11.257 0.018 0.010 6.48E-04 12.336

Centennial GO to Markham GO 136 0 2.4 1.5 204.0 0.0 0.001 0.000 2.58E-05 0.491 0.001 0.000 2.82E-05 0.538 0.003 0.002 1.10E-04 2.104 0.003 0.002 1.21E-04 2.305 0.011 0.006 3.81E-04 7.253 0.012 0.006 4.17E-04 7.948

Markham GO to Mount Joy GO 136 4 1.9 1.2 163.2 4.8 0.001 0.000 2.11E-05 0.402 0.001 0.000 2.32E-05 0.441 0.003 0.001 9.05E-05 1.724 0.003 0.001 9.92E-05 1.890 0.009 0.005 3.12E-04 5.944 0.010 0.005 3.42E-04 6.514

Mount Joy GO Stouffville GO 60 4 8.4 5.2 312.0 20.8 0.001 0.001 4.16E-05 0.793 0.001 0.001 4.56E-05 0.869 0.005 0.003 1.78E-04 3.396 0.006 0.003 1.95E-04 3.722 0.017 0.009 6.15E-04 11.709 0.019 0.010 6.74E-04 12.831

Stoufville GO to Lincolnville GO 37 40 1.6 1.0 37.7 40.8 0.000 0.000 9.06E-06 0.173 0.000 0.000 9.93E-06 0.189 0.001 0.001 3.88E-05 0.740 0.001 0.001 4.26E-05 0.811 0.004 0.002 1.34E-04 2.550 0.004 0.002 1.47E-04 2.795

Richmond Hill Union Station to Oriole GO 0 0 20.1 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Oriole GO to Old Cummer GO 0 0 2.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Old Cummer GO to Langstaff GO 0 0 3.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Langstaff GO Richmond Hill GO 0 0 4.3 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Richmond Hill GO to Gromley GO 0 0 8.5 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Gromley GO to Bloomington GO 0 0 4.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00E+00 0.000

Notes: Total 0.16 0.08 0.01 105.66 0.17 0.09 0.01 115.79 0.67 0.34 0.02 452.73 0.73 0.38 0.03 496.12 2.31 1.24 0.08 1560.78 2.53 1.36 0.09 1710.38

Sample Calculation for daily NOx emissions from electric locomotive engines with regenerative braking for all trains travelling between Park Lawn GO and Exhibition GO stations

Electric Emission = Emission Factor x Energy Consumption Rate x (Mass of Revenue Trains x Revenue Trips per Day x Length of Segment + Mass of Non-Revenue Trains x Non-Revenue Trips per Day x Length of Segment) / 1000

Electrical Emissions = 4.01E-05 tonnes 0.09212 kWh ( 964 tons x 243 revenue trips x 3.7 mile segment + 803 tons x 52 non-revenue trips x 3.7 mile segment) 1 MWh = 0.004 tonnes NOx

MWh ton-mile revenue train day non-revenue train day 1000 kWh day

Fossil Fuel Electricity Production

With Regenerative Braking Without Regenerative BrakingWith Regenerative Braking Without Regenerative Braking

Average Electricity Production Capacity Electricity Production

With Regenerative Braking Without Regenerative Braking

Segment

Table C-7: Annual Emissions from Electric Trains in TSS1+

Data Item Weekday Saturday Sunday Holiday Total

Weighting (% of weekday train

volume)100% 60% 55% 55% N/A


NOx (tonnes/day) 1.71E-01 1.03E-01 9.43E-02 9.43E-02 N/A

NOx (tonnes/year) 4.30E+01 5.35E+00 4.90E+00 9.43E-01 5.42E+01

CO (tonnes/day) 8.79E-02 5.27E-02 4.83E-02 4.83E-02 N/A

CO (tonnes/year) 2.21E+01 2.74E+00 2.51E+00 4.83E-01 2.78E+01


PM2.5 (tonnes/year) 1.53E+00 1.90E-01 1.74E-01 3.34E-02 1.92E+00




NOx (tonnes/year) 3.93E+01 4.88E+00 4.48E+00 8.61E-01 4.95E+01


CO (tonnes/year) 2.01E+01 2.50E+00 2.29E+00 4.41E-01 2.54E+01























CO (tonnes/day) 1.36E+00 8.13E-01 7.46E-01 7.46E-01 N/A








CO (tonnes/day) 1.24E+00 7.42E-01 6.80E-01 6.80E-01 N/A






Notes:


Emissions for Fossil Fuel Electricity Production (100% from fossil fuels) - Without Regenerative Braking

Emissions for Fossil Fuel Electricity Production (100% from fossil fuels) - With Regenerative Braking

Emissions for Average Electricity Production (10% from fossil fuels) - Without Regenerative Braking

Emissions for Average Electricity Production (10% from fossil fuels) - With Regenerative Braking

Emissions for Capacity Electricity Production (28% from fossil fuels) - Without Regenerative Braking

Emissions for Capacity Electricity Production (28% from fossil fuels) - With Regenerative Braking


Rev 00 18-May-2021

APPENDIX D: Ontario Energy Report

Electricity Q1 2019 Report

Electricity Highlights – First Quarter 2019

Q1 Generation Output by Fuel Type (Grid-connected) (TWh)

Year Month Total GWh NUCLEAR GAS HYDRO WIND SOLAR BIOFUEL

2019 Jan 13,912 8,058 941 3,422 1,435 25 31

2019 Feb 12,022 6,320 1,261 3,182 1,205 30 23

2019 Mar 12,355 6,547 1,262 3,183 1,270 59 34

Q1 Total GWh 38,289 20,925 3,464 9,787 3,910 114 88

Q1 Total TWh 38.29 20.93 3.46 9.79 3.91 0.11 0.09

http://reports.ieso.ca/public/GenOutputbyFuelMonthly/

Q1 Generation Output by Fuel Type (grid-connected) (%)

2019 Q1 Month NUCLEAR GAS HYDRO WIND SOLAR BIOFUEL

2019 October 57.9% 6.8% 24.6% 10.3% 0.2% 0.2%

2019 November 52.6% 10.5% 26.5% 10.0% 0.2% 0.2%

2019 December 53.0% 10.2% 25.8% 10.3% 0.5% 0.3%

Q1 average 54.7% 9.0% 25.6% 10.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Note: Percentages are based on GWh values


Q1 Ontario Peak Demand

Period Value in MW Eastern Standard Time Date

Ontario Peak Demand (Q1) 21,525 6:00 PM 21-Jan-19

Ontario Peak Demand (YTD) 21,525 6:00 PM 21-Jan-19

Note: IESO markets data is recorded year-round in Eastern Standard Time.http://reports.ieso.ca/public/Demand/

Ontario Commodity Cost - Class A (¢/kWh)

Costs Q1 YTD

Hourly Ontario Energy Price (Unweighted Average) 2.67 2.67

Global Adjustment - Average, Class A 5.18 5.18

Total 7.85 7.85

Ontario Commodity Cost - Class B (¢/kWh)

Costs Q1 YTD

Hourly Ontario Energy Price (Weighted Average) 2.77 2.77

Global Adjustment - Average, Class B 8.31 8.31

Total 11.08 11.08

http://reports.ieso.ca/public/

Note: Data includes ouput of all transmission-connected generation facilities and embedded generators that are Market Participants. Data does not include output by embedded generators that are not registered as Market Participants.

Oil facilities included under Gas category. Coal generation ceased production in Q1 2014. Transmission-connected solar began to be recorded in Q1 2015.

Note: Proportional output by fuel type of all transmission-connected generation facilities and embedded generators that are Market Participants, not including output by embedded generators that are not registered as Market

Participants. Oil facilities included under Gas category. Coal generation ceased production in Q1 2014. Transmission-connected solar began to be recorded in Q1 2015.

Note: values may not add up to sum of column totals due to rounding


Electricity Supply

Historical Monthly Energy Grid Output by Fuel Type (Grid-Connected) (MWh)

Year as of month end NUCLEAR HYDRO GAS BIOFUEL SOLAR 3

WIND Total MWh

2018 January 8,011,315 3,389,135 1,089,463 37,504 18,778 1,505,070 14,051,265

2018 February 6,807,432 2,998,132 653,270 35,737 24,055 1,062,719 11,581,345

2018 March 7,565,239 2,991,243 491,507 40,100 59,682 1,072,667 12,220,438

2018 April 6,827,009 2,683,946 561,302 36,184 57,715 968,102 11,134,258

2018 May 7,138,810 3,400,082 392,205 33,753 73,958 594,219 11,633,027

2018 June 7,182,062 3,162,382 650,047 32,089 71,298 615,893 11,713,771

2018 July 8,025,802 2,806,921 1,451,947 46,912 78,399 511,603 12,921,584

2018 August 7,999,540 2,599,593 1,586,827 36,498 67,388 560,185 12,850,031

2018 September 7,412,095 2,646,642 1,015,000 34,745 53,562 630,616 11,792,660

2018 October 7,846,763 3,017,927 321,472 31,011 33,579 929,761 12,180,513

2018 November 7,521,596 3,183,446 631,237 25,016 17,228 1,140,513 12,519,036

2018 December 7,811,509 3,329,058 725,261 32,042 14,006 1,071,009 12,982,885

2019 January 8,057,994 3,422,346 941,072 30,928 24,861 1,435,375 13,912,576

2019 February 6,320,056 3,182,154 1,261,447 22,721 30,392 1,205,471 12,022,241

2019 March 6,547,146 3,183,009 1,262,379 33,840 59,236 1,269,843 12,355,453

Note: Total MW value may not add up to sum of column totals due to rounding.


Q1 Imports and Exports (GWh)Import quantities Manitoba Michigan Minnesota New York Quebec Total GWh

Q1 GWh 129.42 9.26 21.85 7.88 2,097.87 2,266.29

Per cent 5.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.3% 92.6%

Export quantities Manitoba Michigan Minnesota New York Quebec Total GWh

Q1 GWh 243.9 2,136.7 113.5 1,700.00 589.6 4,783.70

Per cent 5.1% 44.7% 2.4% 35.5% 12.3%

* Note numbers may not add up to source totals due to rounding.

http://reports.ieso.ca/public/IntertieScheduleFlowYear/

New Facilities Registered in Q1The following projects have completed commissioning and the market entry process and are included in the total installed IESO Market Participant generator capacity:

Yellow Falls

Grid-Connected* Generation Capacity Year Nuclear Hydroelectric Coal Gas 1

Wind Biofuel Solar Total

2019Q1(MW) 13,009 8,499 0 10,277 4,486 295 424 36,989

2019Q1(%) 35% 23% 0% 28% 12% 1% 1%

Note: Numbers may not add up to totals due to rounding.* Installed grid-connected generation capacity is the sum of all market participant generators who supply or bid into the IESO-administered market. Numbers may not add up to totals due to rounding.1 Units that use natural gas, oil or are dual fuel, such as Lennox, NP Kirkland and NP Cochrane, are included in the Gas category.

Contracted Embedded Generation Capacity in Commercial Operation (Q1-2019)

Year Hydroelectric Gas Wind Biofuel Solar Other Total1

2019 YTD (MW) 278 271 591 109 2,153 24 3,426

2019 YTD Proportion of Embedded Capacity (%) 8% 8% 17% 3% 63% 1% 100%

2018 (MW) 278 271 591 110 2,117 24 3,392

2017 (MW) 277 271 591 109 2,029 24 3,301

2016 (MW) 268 259 534 108 1,926 24 3,118

2015 (MW) 269 209 488 108 1,838 10 2922

2014 (MW) 248 208 425 88 1509 2479

2013 (MW) 240 202 336 74 1019 1871

2012 (MW) 209 202 295 63 645 1414

2011 (MW) 203 202 235 60 419 1118


Total Grid-Connected and Contracted Embedded Generation CapacityYear Nuclear Hydroelectric Coal Gas Wind Biofuel Solar Other Total

2019Q1 (MW) 13,009 8,777 0 10,548 5,077 404 2,577 24 40,416

2019Q1 (%) 32% 22% 0% 26% 13% 1% 6% <1%

Note: Numbers may not add up to totals due to rounding.

Q1 Available Transmission Grid Capacity versus Ontario Demand (grid-connected generation)Time Value in MW Eastern Standard Time Date

Available Capacity at Peak 24,738 6:00PM 21-Jan-19

Ontario Peak Demand 21,525 6:00 PM 21-Jan-19Ontario Minimum Demand 12,210 3:00AM 30-Mar-19

Ontario Operating Reserve Requirement at Peak 1,618 6:00PM 21-Jan-19Note: IESO markets data is recorded year-round in Eastern Standard Time.

http://reports.ieso.ca/public/Adequacy2/

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Ontario Electricity Sector

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 YTD (Q1)CO2e Emissions (Megatonnes) 35 31 34 28 15 20 14 14 10 6 6 6 3 4 2

Air Contaminant Emissions from the Ontario Electricity Sector

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 YTD (Q1)

SO2 Emissions (Tonnes) 114,323 87,932 105,419 76,020 30,762 38,507 11,966 10,342 10,192 846 424 579 644 504 100

NOx Emissions (Tonnes) 48,143 38,955 43,846 38,314 23,653 27,358 18,198 19,867 17,973 11,448 10,355 9,323 5,695 5,924 1,840

PM2.5 Emissions (Tonnes) 1,778 1,524 1,871 1,309 986 843 518 468 445 309 262 239 195 210 62

Electricity Demand

Q1 Ontario Peak Demand (MW)

Date Eastern Standard Time Peak MW YTD

21-Jan-19 6:00PM 21,525

IESO markets data is recorded year-round in Eastern Standard Time.

Historical Ontario Monthly Peaks and Minimums (MW)

Year Month

Peak Monthly ON

Demand

Min Monthly ON

Demand

2018 Jan 20,906 12,453 2018 Q1 Peak Demand

2018 Feb 20,076 12,716

2018 Mar 18,462 12,158 2018 Q1 Min Demand

2018 Apr 18,011 11,497

2018 May 20,473 10,541 2018 Min Demand

2018 Jun 21,369 10,698 2018 Q2 Peak Demand

2018 Jul 23,046 11,413

2018 Aug 21,990 11,966

2018 Sep 23,240 10,701 2018 Q3 Min Demand 2018 Peak Demand

2018 Oct 18,205 10,847 2018 Q4 Min Demand

2018 Nov 20,152 11,765 2018 Q4 Peak Demand

2018 Dec 19,891 12,284

2019 Jan 21,525 12,291 2019 Peak Demand

2019 Feb 20,500 13,041

2019 Mar 20,263 12,210 2019 Min Demand




1 A small amount (estimated 180 MW) of contracted embedded capacity is IESO-administered (market participant) generation and therefore reported in both grid-connected and contracted embedded generation totals. Totals do not include non-

contracted embedded generation capacity, whose total annual output is approximately 1 TWh.

Total IESO-contracted embedded generation in commercial operation at end of each period. Numbers may not add up to totals due to rounding.

Note: Data to 2017 is as per Environment and Climate Change Canada's National Inventory Report issued in April 2019. Data for 2018 onwards is estimated by the IESO using actual energy production and emissions factors aligned with data provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada's National Inventory Report.

Note: Data to 2017 is as reported to Environment and Climate Change Canada through the National Pollutant Release Inventory. Data for 2018 onwards is estimated by the IESO using a combination of average historical data, actual energy production and facility level emissions factors (based on data reported to Environment and Climate Change Canada's National Pollutant Release Inventory).




http://reports.ieso.ca/public/Adequacy2/






Forecast Demand Peaks

Season Normal Weather

Peak (MW)

Extreme Weather Peak

(MW)

Summer 2019 22,061 24,385

Winter 2019-20 21,106 22,132

Summer 2020 22,094 24,439

These values to be posted in the June 20, 2019 Reliability Outlook

Q1 Ontario Energy Demand (TWh)

Ontario Electricity Demand Q1 Total TWh

2019 35.7

2018 35.02

2017 34.31

2016 35.16

2015 37.47

2014 38.35

2013 36.60

2012 35.81

2011 37.43

Historical Totals - Annual Ontario Energy Demand (TWh)

Year Total TWh Change over previous year

2019 tbd (35.7 YTD) n/a

2018 137.4 5.3

2017 132.1 -4.9

2016 137 0

2015 137 -2.8

2014 139.8 -0.9

2013 140.7 -0.6

2012 141.3 -0.2

2011 141.5 -0.35

http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/Data-Directory.aspx


Class A Historical Monthly Cost of Electricity (¢/kWh)

Month HOEP*

Global Adjustment

(Average Class A

Customer)

Total Cost of

Commodity

Jan 3.03 4.04 7.07

Feb 1.8 4.33 6.13

Mar 1.65 4.93 6.58

Apr 2.86 4.99 7.85

May 1.15 5.24 6.39

Jun 1.67 5.99 7.66

Jul 2.86 5.21 8.07

Aug 2.89 4.77 7.66

Sep 2.69 4.75 7.44

Oct 1.28 6.30 7.58

Nov 2.36 5.25 7.61

Dec 2.66 4.87 7.53

Jan 2.64 5.32 7.96

Feb 2.71 5.43 8.14

Mar 2.67 4.81 7.48

2019 YTD 2.67 5.18 7.85

*(Unweighted) average of Hourly Ontario Energy Prices to reflect a typical (flat) industrial consumption profile.

http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/Data-Directory.aspx

Class B Historical Monthly Cost of Electricity (¢/kWh)

Month

HOEP (Weighted

Avg)

Global Adjustment (Class

B Customer)

Total Cost of

Commodity

Jan 3.21 6.74 9.95

Feb 1.9 8.17 10.07

Mar 1.72 9.48 11.20

Apr 2.97 9.96 12.93

May 1.31 10.79 12.10

Jun 1.83 11.90 13.73

Jul 3.04 7.74 10.78

Aug 3.06 7.49 10.55

Sep 2.99 8.58 11.57

Oct 1.38 12.06 13.44

Nov 2.51 9.86 12.37

Dec 2.79 7.40 10.19

Jan 2.78 8.09 10.87

Feb 2.79 8.81 11.60

Mar 2.73 8.04 10.77

2019 YTD 2.77 8.31 11.08

*Totals do not sum due to dollar values that are rounded down to cents

http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/price.aspx

http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/Market-Summaries-Archive.aspx

Historical Monthly Wholesale Electricity prices (Arithmetic) (¢/kWh)

Year Month HOEP Arithmetic Avg Price Max HOEP Price Min HOEP Price

2018 Jan 3.03 31.78 -0.30

2018 Feb 1.80 10.88 -0.28

2018 Mar 1.65 16.37 -0.15

2018 Apr 2.86 24.49 -0.01

2018 May 1.15 27.09 -0.43

2018 Jun 1.67 8.80 -0.44

2018 Jul 2.86 12.27 -0.42

2018 Aug 2.89 10.55 -0.02

2018 Sep 2.69 29.58 -0.41

2018 Oct 1.28 18.37 -0.44

2018 Nov 2.36 36.56 -0.03

2018 Dec 2.66 17.96 0.00

2019 Jan 2.64 22.23 -0.03

2019 Feb 2.71 17.61 0.00

2019 Mar 2.67 15.60 0.00

http:/reports.ieso.ca/public/

Class AMonth (¢/kWh) Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

2019

YTD Avg.

HOEP * 3.03 1.80 1.65 2.86 1.15 1.67 2.86 2.89 2.69 1.28 2.36 2.66 2.64 2.71 2.67 2.67

Average Class A Global Adjustment Rate 4.04 4.33 4.93 4.99 5.24 5.99 5.21 4.77 4.75 6.30 5.25 4.87 5.32 5.43 4.81 5.18

Total Cost of Commodity 7.07 6.13 6.58 0.00 6.39 7.66 8.07 7.66 7.44 7.58 7.61 7.53 7.96 8.14 7.48 7.85

*(Unweighted) average of Hourly Ontario Energy Prices to reflect a typical (flat) industrial consumption profile.

Class B

Month (¢/kWh) Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-192019

YTD Avg.

HOEP ** 3.21 1.90 1.72 2.97 1.31 1.83 3.04 3.06 2.99 1.38 2.51 2.79 2.78 2.79 2.73 2.77

Class B Global Adjustment Rate 6.74 8.17 9.48 9.96 10.79 11.90 7.74 7.49 8.58 12.06 9.86 7.40 8.09 8.81 8.04 8.31

Total Cost of Commodity 9.95 10.07 11.20 0.00 12.10 13.73 10.78 10.55 11.57 13.44 12.37 10.19 10.87 11.60 10.77 11.08

*Totals do not sum due to dollar values that are rounded down to cents

**Averages are weighted by the amount of electricity used throughout the province within each hour to broadly reflect the consumption profile of Class B (i.e., residential and commercial) consumers.

***Totals do not sum due to dollar values that are rounded down to cents

http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/price.aspx

http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/Market-Summaries-Archive.aspx


Rev 00 18-May-2021

APPENDIX E: Estimation of Annual Energy

Consumption by Electric

Trains

Review of Parsons Proposal to Upgrade Track Circuits

Prepared By: Gannett Fleming Canada ULC 1/25/16 i | P a g e

Estimation of Annual Energy Consumption by Electric Trains

Submitted to:

Submittal Date Here June XX, XXXX

Submitted by:

GF Project No.

060277/060070

Prepared By: Gannett Fleming Canada ULC 1/25/16 Rev. 0.1 i | P a g e

METROLINX GO RAIL ELECTRIFICATION

Quality Assurance

Document Release Form

Name of Firm: Gannett Fleming Canada ULC

Document Name: Estimation of Annual Energy Consumption by Electric Trains

Submittal Date: January 25, 2016

Discipline: Traction Power …

Prepared By: Gordon Yu Date: January 25, 2016

Reviewed By: Ted Bandy Date: January 25, 2016

Approved By: Andrew Gillespie Date: January 25, 2016

Project Manager

The above electronic signatures indicate that the named document is controlled by GF Canada ULC, and

has been:

1. Prepared by qualified staff in accordance with generally accepted professional practice. 2. Checked for completeness and accuracy by the appointed discipline reviewers and that the

discipline reviewers did not perform the original work. 3. Reviewed and resolved compatibility interfaces and potential conflicts among the involved

disciplines. 4. Updated to address previously agreed-to reviewer comments, including any remaining

comments from previous internal or external reviews. 5. Reviewed for conformance to scope and other statutory and regulatory requirements. 6. Determined suitable for submittal by the Project Manager.

Prepared By: Gannett Fleming Canada ULC 1/25/16 Rev. 0.1 ii | P a g e

REVISION HISTORY

Revision Date Comments

0.1 January 25, 2016 Initial release


Prepared By: Gannett Fleming Canada ULC 1/25/16 Rev. 0.1 iii | P a g e

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

2 INTRODUCTION 1

2.1 LIST OF REFERENCE DOCUMENTS 1

3 CALCULATION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION RATES 2

4 CALCULATION OF WEEKDAY ENERGY CONSUMPTIONS 2

5 CALCULATION OF ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONS 3


Prepared By: Gannett Fleming Canada ULC 1/25/16 Rev. 0.1 1 | P a g e

1 Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide estimated annual energy consumptions by electric trains for

emission calculations. The extent of electrification for this report includes the following lines:

Lakeshore West

Lakeshore East

Kitchener

UPX

Barrie

Stoufville

The calculations are based on the “Mockup Schedule for Consultants” provided by GO Transit. This

schedule has a nominal headway of 15-minute throughout the weekday. The results are summarized as

follows:

If regenerative braking is not utilized, the annual energy consumption is estimated to be

704,465 MWh.

If regenerative braking is utilized, the annual energy consumption is estimated to be 642,846

MWh.

2 Introduction While a traction power system load flow study is being implemented, it is still at an early stage of model

preparation the modeling effort. Before new simulation results are available, this report provides an

estimation of the annual energy consumptions for the planned electrification.

2.1 List of Reference Documents This report makes reference to the following documents:

[1]. GO Electrification Study Final Report, December 2010; prepared by Delcan/Arup JV.

[2]. Traction Power System Modeling and Simulations of the Metrolinx Airport Rail Link, Lakeshore

Lines and Kitchener Line Electrification Systems – Final Report, December 28, 2012; prepared by

LTK.

[3]. RER Mockup Schedule for Consultants (Excel workbook dated 07/22/2015, as furnished by GO

Transit).



3 Calculation of Energy Consumption Rates The rate of energy consumption, in kWh per ton-mile, is based on the 2012 electrification study report

[Reference [2]]. The train service levels for the 2012 electrification study report were based the

Reference Case (Reference [1]).

The 2012 Electrification Study Report (Reference [2]) included Lakeshore Lines, the Kitchener Line and

Union Pearson Airport Express (UPX). It contained ton-miles and weekday energy consumptions in the

studied territory, which are listed in Appendices J and N of the referenced report. The consumption

rates (kWh per ton-mile) are calculated from these results and are shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1. 2012 Electrification Study Report - Energy Consumption Rates

Regenerative Braking Energy Consumption

(kWh) Train Movement

(Ton-miles)

Energy Consumption Rate

kWh / (Ton-mile)

Off 925,804 9,171,532 0.10095

On 844,837 9,171,532 0.09212

4 Calculation of Weekday Energy Consumptions The weekday train movements and ton-miles for electric trains based on the Mockup Schedule [3] are

calculated. Utilizing the energy consumption rates obtained from the 2012 electrification study report

[2], the weekday energy consumptions are calculated. Diesel trains are excluded from the calculations.

The calculations are based on assumed train parameters listed in Table 2 below.

Table 2. Assumed Electric Train Parameters

Train Consists Effective AW1 Mass (Tons) Effective AW0 Mass (Tons)

12 Twindexx Vario EMU cars 946 840

1 ALP-46A + 12 bi-level coaches 964 803

3 Silverliner V EMU cars 268 239

Notes - The 3-car EMU trains are for the UPX services. Effective masses include rotational masses.

For revenue service trains, effective AW1 masses are used. For non-revenue trains, effective AW0

masses are used.

If regenerative braking is not utilized, the calculations are shown in Table 3 below.



Table 3. Weekday Electric Train Movements and Energy Consumptions (Without Regenerative Braking)

Type of Trains Number of Train

Movements Subtotal Ton-Miles

Energy Consumption MWh

Revenue Service Trains 931 20,592,024 2,079

Non-Revenue Trains 174 1,470,428 148

Total 1,105 22,062,452 2,227

If regenerative braking is utilized, the calculations are shown in Table 4 below.

Table 4. Weekday Electric Train Movements and Energy Consumptions (With Regenerative Braking)

Type of Trains Number of Train

Movements Subtotal Ton-Miles

Energy Consumption MWh

Revenue Service Trains 931 20,592,024 1,897

Non-Revenue Trains 174 1,470,428 135

Total 1,105 22,062,452 2,032

5 Calculation of Annual Energy Consumptions Based on the weekday energy consumption presented above, the annual energy consumptions are

calculated.

If regenerative braking is not utilized, the annual energy consumption estimation is shown in Table 5

below.

Table 5. Annual Energy Consumption Estimation (Without Regenerative Braking)


Weighting (% of weekday energy consumption)

100% 60% 55% 55% N/A

Daily energy consumption (MWh/day)

2,227 1,336 1,225 1,225 N/A


Subtotal (MWh) 559,028 69,489 63,698 12,250 704,465

Note - Saturday and Sunday energy consumptions are calculated based on typical train volume differences between weekday and weekends for commuter railroads.



If regenerative braking is utilized, the annual energy consumption estimation is shown in Table 6 below.

Table 6. Annual Energy Consumption Estimation (With Regenerative Braking)


Weighting (% of weekday energy consumption)

100% 60% 55% 55% N/A

Daily energy consumption (MWh/day)

2,032 1,219 1,118 1,118 N/A


Subtotal (MWh) 510,131 63,411 58,126 11,178 642,846