appendix a questionnaire - shodhgangashodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/22017/18/18... ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Appendix – A
QUESTIONNAIRE
1. Analysts like Robert Kaplan say that while government is an aid to development
in China, it is a hindrance in India. Your comments please.
2. Even after 60 years, many feel that the 1962 Indo-China war could have been
averted by Nehru. Do you agree?
3. Do you think that the deployment of armed forces near the Line of Actual
Control in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in
1980s was merely a precautionary step to prevent cross-border intrusions or
aimed at demonstrating the strength of India?
4. Do you think that India has received positive responses from China for the
initiatives taken by her for improving the bilateral relations? If not, what do you
think are the possible reasons?
5. When US and other developed countries did not recognise PRC, what made
India recognise it early?
6. Considering that China never accepted the McMahon line as the international
border with India, is her stand on Arunachal Pradesh or Aksai Chin justified?
7. China’s decision to fund multi-million-dollar project of Karakoram highway
linking Pakistan and China is seen as a growing nexus between them. How do
you think it might affect Indian position in Asia?
8. Chinese officials often said that Indian media is giving unnecessary hype to
border disputes. Do you agree?
9. Border disputes between India and China are often seen as eternal problems
creating mutual mistrust between them. Do you agree?
10. Considering that resolving of border issues between any two countries is a
complex task and any country making concessions would be doing so against the
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public support, should the border issues determine the larger interests of India
and China?
11. According to you, what is the impact of the shift of global environment from
bipolar to uni-polar on Sino-Indian relations?
12. Which of the aspects do you think are actually influencing the bilateral relations
today between India and China- political or military?
13. Has India’s decision to offer asylum to Dalai Lama seriously affected her
relations with China?
14. Do you think that the changed political and economic scenario in China and
India had improved political relationship between them?
15. Today there is a talk that the balance of trade is heavily tilted towards China
which is importing raw materials and is flooding the markets outside with her
finished goods. How would this affect Indian economy, and her relationship with
China?
16. What kind of trading pattern between India and China would improve their
relations with each other?
17. What kind of economic ties should India develop with other countries to counter
her trade imbalance with China?
18. What, in your opinion, are the reasons for China opposing time and again the
aspirations of India getting a permanent seat in the Security Council?
19. What, in your opinion, are two major initiatives that India could take to improve
the bilateral relations with China?
20. China claims that it has diverted People’s Liberation Army Navy towards deep
seas purely for protecting her economic interests. Do you agree?
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21. If the measures being taken by China in protecting her economic interests by
developing its Navy are rational and essential, why similar measures were not
contemplated by India so far?
22. In some sections of American and European media, the PLA navy is not full-
fledged Blue Water Navy, and thus need not be feared. Your comments please.
23. Globally it is opined that the ‘rivalry’ between India and China is destroying the
peace and tranquillity of the Indian Ocean Region. Do you agree?
24. China has set up bases in Indian Ocean littoral states some of which are quite
close to Indian coast (metaphorically called String of Pearls), such as Coco
Islands in Myanmar. How should India react to this?
25. China is resorting to application of ‘Soft Power’ through diplomacy, financial
aid, and assisting in construction of ports in other neighbouring states of India.
How should India respond to this?
26. China has reiterated that Indian Ocean does not belong to India, just because of
the name. Recently even America has said the same. How could you interpret
this?
27. How true is the triangular nexus between China, Pakistan and the US as a
strategy against India?
28. India has brought out its first Maritime Doctrine in the year 2004. Does this fact
imply that we had neglected the development factor of our navy for long?
29. The allocation of budget outlay to the Indian Defence forces in the last five years
has gone up from one lakh mark to two crore mark (in Indian Rupees) in
numbers. But this is less than one-third of China’s military outlay. What does it
imply?
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30. China is said to be investing in R&D on a large scale with an aim to develop
indigenous capability for building and modernising its naval infrastructure while
India is still said to be highly dependent on import of technology and equipment.
How could this affect the preparedness of our navy?
31. Do you think that India’s naval power would ever match with Chinese naval
power? If so, in how many years?
32. Is Indian Maritime Doctrine successful in identifying all the areas of concern for
India and the strategies to effectively address them?
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Appendix – B
RESPONDENT’S PROFILE
01. Balaji Chandramohan -Visiting Fellow at Future Directions International,
New Delhi.
Past- Consultant at National Human Rights Commission, Volunteer for BJP’s
IT and Media Cell at Bharatiya Janata Party, International and Disability
Officer at the Waikato Institute of Technology.
Specialities: Foreign Policy and the relationship between constitutional
structures of states and their capacity to exert strategic power in international
affairs.
Previous Publications: 1. Relevance of SAARC in a multi-polar world.
Foreign Policy Research Centre, Journal Issue No.9, 2012 pp 279-282. 2.
China and USA – a future Cold War, World Security Network Newsletter, 26
July 2010, www.worldsecuritynetwork, accessed on 05-06-2012. 3. The Pacific
Paradigm. Defense Management Journal Issue No. 55, October 2011. 4. Fifty
years after the Sino-Indian Conflict, Will the “Asian Century” see a New
Confrontation? Published in Future Directions International Strategic Analysis,
25 October 2012, www.futuredirections.org.au, accessed on 30-12-2012. 5.
Indian Special Forces – An Evolving Approach, Future Directions International
Strategic Analysis, 28 March 2013, www.futuredirections.org.au, accessed on
05-04-2013.
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02. Daniel Fiott- Doctoral Researcher at Institute for European Studies, Vrije
University of Brussels.
Past-Research Fellow at Madariaga –College of Europe Foundation,
Programme Associate Intern at International Security Information Service
Europe, Communications Volunteer at Friends of the Earth International.
Specialities: European Union’s Common Foreign and Security
Policy/Common Security and Defence Policy; International Relations and
strategic questions arising from global power shifts.
Previous Publications: 1. China’s PLAN: Securing Supplies and Sailing into
Blue Waters? Madariaga paper, Vol. 2 No.6, December 2009. 2. Natural
Resources and Conflict in Africa, Research report for the European
commission, (2009), grant No. PBP: 2008/2-003, pp.30 (&Malgarini, M). 3.
The Responsibility to Protect: Sovereignty, Political Will and Capabilities,
ISIS Europe European Security Review, No. 39, (2008): pp 6-11. 4. Carr’s
Quest: Escaping the ‘Rules’ of International Relations? Conference paper
delivered at the 3rd
European consortium for Political Research Graduate
Conference, (31 August 2010), Dublin, Ireland: pp 18.
03. Harsh V. Pant – Adjunct (non-resident) fellow with the Wadhwani Chair at
Centre for Strategic and International Studies, and a reader in International
Relations in the Defence Studies Department at King’s College London, an
associate at the Centre for Science and Security Studies and the India Institute
at King’s College, London.
Past – visiting professor at the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore; a
visiting fellow at the Center for the Advanced Study of India-University of
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Pennsylvania; visiting scholar at the Center for International Peace and
Security Studies McGill University.
Specialities: International Relations Theory, Security Studies, Proliferation of
Weapons of Mass Destruction, Asia-Pacific Security, South Asian Politics.
Previous Publications: 1. The China Syndrome: Grappling with and Uneasy
Relationship, Harper Collins India in a Joint venture with India Today Group,
New Delhi, 2010. 2. China’s Rising Global Profile: The Great Power Tradition,
Sussex Academic Press, UK, 2011. 3. The Rise of China: Implications for
India, Cambridge University Press, India Pvt.Ltd, New Delhi, 2012. 4. The
Rise of Indian Navy: Internal Vulnerabilities: External Challenges, Ashgate
Publishing Co. UK, November 2012.
04. Dr. B.K. Mishra – Director-Centre for Studies in International Relations and
Development (CSIRD), Visiting Fellow at Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute
of Asian Studies, Kolkata. A Phd from JNU New Delhi.
Currently working on Sino-Indian competition for strategic peace in South
and Southeast Asia.
Specialities: Traditional and Non-traditional security issues in south and
Southeast Asia, and diaspora studies.
Previous Publications: 1. Road from Kolkata to Kunming? The Times of
India, Published on 27 November 2012, 2. “Looking at Nathu La through the
Security Prism”, in “Sikkim’s Tryst with Nathu La: What Awaits India’s East
and North East?”, Anshah publishing house, Kolkata, 2009. 3. Modernity on
Trial: nationhood and nationalism in South Asia, in Representing Modernities:
Perspectives on Polity, Society, Culture and Economy, Setu Prokashoni,
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Kolkata, 2009. 4. Chinese Eyes on Brahmaputra Waters, Look East, 2010. 5.
Security Implications of Great India-Myanmar Interaction, Indian Foreign
Affairs Journal, vol.4, Issue 2m April-June 2009.
05. Dr. Subhash Kapila – Retd. Brigadier, Army, Columnist of “Plain Speak” in
www.boloji.com, which features analyses on foreign policy topics; strategic
issues and political developments with a special focus of India and its
neighbourhood; strategic and military issues of global significance.
Past – graduate of the Royal British Army Staff College, a Masters in Defence
Science in Madras University and a PhD in Strategic Studies Allahabad
University, accomplished diplomatic assignments in various countries,
participated in national seminars; and interviews by CNN, BBC etc.
Specialities: foreign policy issues, strategic affairs for think-tanks, professional
contribution to noted journals.
Previous Publications: 1. India’s Defence Policies and Strategic Thought: A
Comparative Analysis, Simsid books, India, 2003. 2. Some of the titles of the
column “Plain Speak”-of www.boloji.com, are:- China sharply Etches anti-
Indian Hostility Deeper; China is No friend of India; China Paranoid over
Dalai Lama; China-Pakistan Military Nexus Formally in Indian Strategic
Planning; China Reasserts Antagonistic Postures Against India, etc.
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Appendix – C
SUMMARY OF RESPONSES RECEIVED FOR THE
QUESTIONNAIRE
1 Analysts like Robert Kaplan say that while government is an aid to
development in China, it is a hindrance in India. Your comments please.
Bob (Kaplan) has a critical view of India. One need to ask: Development at
what cost? Certainly the Government in China is an aid to development but
with huge cost to the citizens. Thankfully, in India, government tries to take
people along with it in promoting development.
B.K.Mishra
It’s not so as India which has modelled its politico-bureaucratic structure
based on the British model which has at times not suited perfectly to our
country as differences in the cultures which has absolved the structure.
China’s history and evolution is different compared to India and there is
more continuation to the politico-military-bureaucratic structure to the host
society which has enabled it absolve the changes perfectly to the
contemporary times.
Balaji Chandramohan
I suppose that Kaplan is making a veiled point about authoritarian
government having an advantage over democratic governments in pushing
forward the development of a country. I think there are a number of
examples which support this argument – think of Singapore in the past.
However, we also have examples pointing to the contrary – think of the
Soviet Union. India and China share the problem that they are huge
geographical spaces, and thus governance for the purposes of development
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becomes crucial. Democracy may be messy, development may take longer,
but it has a built in “change” mechanism, which a more authoritarian system
does not. Indeed, from what I gather the Chinese leadership is interested in
moving towards a system with less corruption. Democracy is not a silver
bullet for corruption, but it certainly helps. Furthermore, it seems to my
mind that inequalities in India and China are pretty similar – they may even
be getting wider in China with their economic growth – although we hear
more about India’s inequalities than we do China’s because it is a
democracy.
Fiott
I agree
Harsh V.Pant
2 Even after 60 years, many feel that the 1962 Indo-China war could have
been averted by Nehru. Do you agree?
I agree it could have been averted but not only by Nehru. Others (the
Chinese) are equally responsible for the war.
B.K.Mishra
Much talk and written work has gone into the 1962 Sino-Indian War. But
it’s not a war to start with it’s just a border skirmish involving just 1 division
of the Indian army. India has not fought a major war fully under its own
government ever. Indian soldiers did fight wars in various theatres of the
First World War, Second World War and even before that under the British
even in China but most of our political leaders don’t have experience till
now in military-strategic affairs and the military Generals at that time during
the Sino-Indian War never had much experience in understanding the
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complex operation problems involved. Second, I don’t think any Indian
political leader till this date has any clear strategic objectives as shown by
Nehru which of course didn’t succeed but to hold him account for that
border incident is far too much in pure military terms. Let’s not forget if
India would have faced a two-front land war in 1962 from Pakistan and
China it would have had dire straits for us. It’s because of Nehru’s skilful
diplomacy with Pakistan that helped us not to be invaded from all sides.
Balaji Chandramohan
Yes
Harsh V.Pant
3 Do you think that the deployment of armed forces near the Line of Actual
Control in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh by Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi in 1980s was merely a precautionary step to prevent cross-border
intrusions or aimed at demonstrating the strength of India?
It was a legitimate and cautious military manoeuvre by India.
B.K.Mishra
Let’s be clear on this. India alone can’t win a major war with China and
Indira Gandhi must be aware of that. But she exhibited her resolve at times
which comes if you understand the personalities that they carry when they
occupy the post. But too much should be not read for better understanding of
strategic and operational problems involved in actually exhibiting such a
thought
Balaji Chandramohan
Aimed at demonstrating India’s strength
Harsh V.Pant
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4 Do you think that India has received positive responses from China for the
initiatives taken by her for improving the bilateral relations? If not, what
do you think are the possible reasons?
China has been more than responsive in economic matters. But matters
related to the border or territory it is stubborn.
B.K.Mishra
It’s complex to read on what Chinese thinks. Their strategic objectives are
different and I’m sure they don’t actually take India that seriously in terms
of our military capabilities and both India and China have never fought a
major war ever in history despite being so close to each other. China’s
strategic reach is challenged by Japan, Russia, the United States and in fact
Vietnam so therefore I’m not quite buying the idea of Sino-Indian military
conflict or economic ties from a Chinese angle though from our side we
need to keep engaging with China.
Balaji Chandramohan
I think China has been relatively pleased to deal with India bi-laterally,
especially given the potential security risks between the two countries. This
being said, the China-India relationship is about more than security – the two
countries are still more interested in sustaining economic growth and
improving trade ties. Two relationships matter in international relations: i)
relations with the US; ii) relations with your neighbours. This is true for both
India and China.
Fiott
No
Harsh V.Pant
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5 When US and other developed countries did not recognise PRC, what
made India recognise it early?
India’s faith in neighbourhood and respect to various ideologies. On a
broader basis India believed in Asian solidarity.
B.K.Mishra
India’s strategic priorities after Independence were aimed at maintaining
close relations with most of the power blocks whether it was Soviet Union,
the United States, PRC or even the countries which don’t want to be within
any power blocks. Therefore, it was logical that India extended the hand of
friendship to China.
Balaji Chandramohan
A complex question but a large part of the answer must be the whole non-
aligned movement issue.
Fiott
6 Considering that China never accepted the McMahon line as the
international border with India, is her stand on Arunachal Pradesh or
Aksai Chin justified?
No
B.K.Mishra
China doesn’t accept the word borders as it’s defined. Let’s not get worried
on what China thinks about Aksai Chin or Arunachal Pradesh. Arunachal
Pradesh is there with India therefore it should be considered as one by the
Chinese. If they don’t want to accept they have the right to do so.
Balaji Chandramohan
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7 China’s decision to fund multi-million-dollar project of Karakoram
highway linking Pakistan and China is seen as a growing nexus between
them. How do you think it might affect Indian position in Asia?
The China Pakistan nexus is not new and not limited to this highway only.
Their all weather friendship is well known. Indian position in Asia is much
better than that of China in terms of acceptability. All India needs to do is to
articulate her interests and pursue policies accordingly.
B.K.Mishra
It’s purely India’s mistake till this date to see Pakistan as a major security
threat and not China. We should have developed better relations with
Pakistan than bullying them and if that would have happened Pakistan would
have not joined the Sino-American axis during the Cold War which in fact
has not helped Pakistan’s case also in any way. Pakistan will play a clever
game by not joining either China or the United States in the years to come
and I think India in fact should follow Pakistan’s example in developing a
coherent diplomatic stance to the new Cold War between the US and China.
India will not lose anything if there is going to be a highway connecting
Pakistan and China.
Balaji Chandramohan
Pakistan offers China strategic depth, and the Chinese know of the
Pakistan-Indian history. There is nothing new in China trying to exploit
such divisions.
Fiott
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8 Chinese officials often said that Indian media is giving unnecessary hype to
border disputes. Do you agree?
The Chinese are alien to the concept of free media and media criticism so
any adverse mention in media is called hype.
B.K.Mishra
Certainly, we have graduated to play a major role as a military Great Power
and unnecessarily worried about certain border disputes which even the
other countries are not that worried per se.
Balaji Chandramohan
Media reports are always silly in these matters. China’s media has also given
unnecessary hype to the Senkaku Islands dispute. Authoritarian regimes tend
to fear media reports.
Fiott
There is some truth to it but Chinese incursions have also increased
Harsh V.Pant
9 Border disputes between India and China are often seen as eternal
problems creating mutual mistrust between them. Do you agree?
Yes
B.K.Mishra
I think the above answer holds good here also
Balaji Chandramohan
Border disputes can be overcome, but they are very sensitive issues.
Generally speaking borders in themselves will not be the cause of conflict.
We should all hope that economic growth continues in India and China,
because if there is a real and long-term slump in growth and development
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then there might be trouble.
Fiott
Yes
Harsh V.Pant
10 Considering that resolving of border issues between any two countries is a
complex task and any country making concessions would be doing so
against the public support, should the border issues determine the larger
interests of India and China?
All both India and China need to do is to live happily with the status quo.
We are living with the status quo but are just not happy. Both need to accept
and stay happy with the present arrangement.
B.K.Mishra
China never thinks in that way to start with. I’m sure China is not concerned
either about India’s military might or the border issue. Their strategic
priorities are challenges from Russia, the United States and Japan in that
order.
Balaji Chandramohan
As I said above, I do think that the border issue is the real cause of the
problem. Borders link in with broader systemic questions to do with
development and security – they can be a trigger for broader antagonisms.
Fiott
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11 According to you, what is the impact of the shift of global environment
from bipolar to uni-polar on Sino-Indian relations?
Global environment is not uni-polar. In Theoretical terms it is an incomplete
nuclear diffusion system in which the role of India and China is crucial.
They are independent variables in contemporary global politics.
B.K.Mishra
I think India is under an obligation for it to be called a Great Power to
develop its own military might which can project its power in a bi-polar or
uni-polar or multi-polar world but I think we have still developed that
thinking so far and buying concepts which are quite irrelevant such as bi-
polar or uni-polar or multi-polar world in which we are not going to play
any major role until we start leveraging on our military power outside.
Balaji Chandramohan
Do we live in a uni-polar environment? I would argue that multi-polarity
best fits the picture, but even this is a testable claim. The good thing about
the shift away from unipolarity is that emerging countries such as China and
India realise that with more power comes a lot more responsibility to
neighbours. I think, for now, that both countries realise this bigger picture.
Fiott
12 Which of the aspects do you think are actually influencing the bilateral
relations today between India and China- political or military?
Military of course and economic
B.K.Mishra
China thinks strategy and security in military terms but India thinks strategy
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and security in political terms therefore there is no symphony on this
thinking. The reason why China is far ahead than India in military might is
because its rulers as having got the taste of military affairs during the Civil
war and in the Second World War understood quite early on the need to
develop a flexible coherent military strategy for power projection.
Balaji Chandramohan
Military power is a direct consequence of growing political power. It is
normal for states to increase military power as they gain in political
influence. I still think that on balance it is the pressing political issues such
as economic growth and development that mark relations, rather than
military affairs – however, this could change in the future.
Fiott
13 Has India’s decision to offer asylum to Dalai Lama seriously affected her
relations with China?
Yes, it did.
B.K.Mishra
China’s strategic forces command is there in Tibet and that’s there to stay.
There is so much talk about Dalai Lama being given asylum. India’s
relations with China will affect only if India starts developing a commando
operation unit of the Tibetan volunteers and integrate it with the yet to be
formed mountain strike corps which is some distance from onwards.
Balaji Chandramohan
It is symbolic but I do not think it is the major point in relations between the
two countries.
Fiott
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14 Do you think that the changed political and economic scenario in China
and India had improved political relationship between them?
There has been no change in Chinese political scenario. The improvement in
India-China relationship is conspicuous only in economic matters.
B.K.Mishra
Well, China and India has been friends and despite the brief period post-
1962 era there is no reasons for us to have economic relations with China
but not at the cost of scaling down of our military might
Balaji Chandramohan
Economic development seems to concentrate the minds of leaders. Mutual
wealth and growth should help relations but mutual challenges such as the
environment could also help relations.
Fiott
15 Today there is a talk that the balance of trade is heavily tilted towards
China which is importing raw materials and is flooding the markets
outside with her finished goods. How would this affect Indian economy,
and her relationship with China?
This is simple economic principle that is in operation in India—China trade.
In the long run India will win economically in the region and globally
following the modernisation process, i.e. the more mature an economy gets
the more it demands quality goods. Thus, China’s relative advantage of
producing cheap goods will be lost, provided India keeps the regional
market engaged with quality goods. The trade deficit is just a notion. Just
calculate the amount related to goods that could have come to India through
investment. If one takes that amount away from Chinese export list then
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there would be no trade deficit against India. Even if there is trade deficit it
does no harm to Indian economy.
B.K.Mishra
I don’t think so. China’s economy is based on export markets and there are
many countries than India to offer that luxury for it. China is increasing its
economic foot print in Africa, Latin America and South Pacific for its
resources and there are markets there for them also. We should also follow
suit rather than worrying about the balance of trade and so forth.
Balaji Chandramohan
This is a good question. Certainly it is an issue but it makes one think about
the structure of India’s economy – China is an exporter of goods, but India
is a provider of services. I wonder over the longer-term what is more
resilient as an economic model. India’s economy – with its well skilled,
English speaking, workers – could potentially have a global reach. For
China the problem is boosting domestic demand and shifting away from an
export model, which might be difficult to achieve. In the end, the critical
issue is about market access – China is still a closed economy, even though
it is a WTO member (India could flood China with the services and high-
tech savvy it has at its disposal). A China with greater domestic demand
would change the nature of the global economy, but it has to get there first.
Fiott
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16 What kind of trading pattern between India and China would improve
their relations with each other?
Trading in goods that are complementary would be most suited for these big
needing and emerging countries.
B.K.Mishra
China is India’s largest trading partner and India as an economic power is
very much welcomed by India and I hope as India’s economic might
increases with second economic reforms there might be more of a case for
better trading relations
Balaji Chandramohan
17 What kind of economic ties should India develop with other countries to
counter her trade imbalance with China?
One cannot wish for a particular kind of economic ties to counter someone
else. As mentioned earlier, India should keep the other markets engaged and
follow a liberal policy to be perceived as an attractive destination for
economic activities.
B.K.Mishra
India should enact the Free Trade Agreement with much more pragmatic
approach as exhibited by China for example in enacting the FTA with
Australia and New Zealand for example
Balaji Chandramohan
Regional integration could work.
Fiott
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18 What, in your opinion, are the reasons for China opposing time and again
the aspirations of India getting a permanent seat in the Security Council?
China, at times, has also expressed her support for India’s UNSC bid. But
the reform process of the UN must start for that which does not seem
happening in the future. Until that happens it is difficult to say what the
Chinese view on India’s UNSC ambition is.
B.K.Mishra
Let’s be clear on this. The Concept of Security Council came into being at
the backdrop of military might. China contributed to the Allied cause in the
Second World War substantially in terms of the number of casualties next
only to Soviet Union. It was the smart leadership of the Chinese (both the
mainland and Taiwan) that they could leverage that for a permanent
membership at the backdrop of military victory by shedding blood. India
contributed to the Allied cause voluntarily ( the largest ever all volunteer
force) but our political leaders were not willing to use the contribution made
by the Indian military for Allied cause in both the important Pacific and
European theatres of war before Independence for a post at the Security
council which is our fault. I’m not sure on how China with a structure like
that could change and support India’s cause for a post at the UNSC which is
not quite logical.
Balaji Chandramohan
The same reason that China stops any other country from becoming a
member. India is not special in this regard – the P5 is an exclusive club and
none of the members are willing to give up their powers. It is selfish but
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that’s life – many other countries might perhaps argue that they should be on
the P5 (think Brazil) but this is not going to happen any time soon.
Fiott
19 What, in your opinion, are two major initiatives that India could take to
improve the bilateral relations with China?
One needs to be clear what kind of relationship one wants with China. To
my mind the present relationship is more than normal. Time probably has
not come to address the more complex issues.
B.K.Mishra
India can increase economic relations with China of course but anyway a
closer military relation between New Delhi-Washington won’t be welcome
in anyway therefore the best way for India is to buy time by trading peace
but increasing our military might.
Balaji Chandramohan
A tough question. India on its own may be incapable. India plus others might
be more beneficial than merely a bilateral approach.
Fiott
20 China claims that it has diverted People’s Liberation Army Navy towards
deep seas purely for protecting her economic interests. Do you agree?
In Chinese foreign policy PLA (military) has a role to play. They proudly
assert that their navy (military) would protect their economic interests world
over. Now it is a matter of interpretation on the part of the Chinese
leadership to determine what they consider as economic interest. For
example the islands in South China Sea are considered economic interest
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along with sovereignty issue.
B.K.Mishra
When the US was distracted with asymmetric conflicts in the Middle East
and Afghanistan, China started to increase its naval capabilities which are
one-way of coming out of the encirclement that it has from Russia, Japan
and the United States within its core and periphery. This argument could be
extended for China to both protect and increase its economic interests
Balaji Chandramohan
Yes, I do agree but only because I think that “protecting her economic
interests” may require the occasional use of force. I do not separate war and
economic interests – neither does any aspiring power.
Fiott
21 If the measures being taken by China in protecting her economic
interests by developing its Navy are rational and essential, why similar
measures were not contemplated by India so far?
India’s strategic vision differs greatly from that of China. China sees threats
to her economic interests where as India does not feel so. India has the
required capability to protect her economic interests in the seas to the extent
rational threats can be anticipated to India’s economic interests in the seas.
B.K.Mishra
India is increasing its naval capabilities by strengthening the Eastern Fleet
and the tri-command service based in the Andaman and Nicobar. But we are
some way yet to develop capabilities where by which our Western Fleet can
project till Western Africa and our Eastern Fleet can project till South- East
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Pacific. This can happen in the next 25 years.
Balaji Chandramohan
22 In some sections of American and European media, the PLA navy is not
full-fledged Blue Water Navy, and thus need not be feared. Your
comments please.
China is not an organic naval power like Japan, Britain, Australia or the
United States. Its strategic culture is defensive primarily for continental
purposes and it requires some effort to develop naval capabilities. Though
the PLA has envisaged a three-island chain naval strategy for 2050, it’s
being actively countered by countries in the Indo-Pacific region or the
greater Asia-Pacific with the outer hedge of arc erected by the US starting
from Hawaii till Mumbai thanks to its Pacific Command.
Balaji Chandramohan
For now it is not a fully-fledged blue water fleet, but it is becoming one.
“Fear” however is a strange word – it is normal for a country the size and
importance of China to want and need a navy. The issue will be about
adjustment by the US (and to a lesser extent Europe) to what is inevitable –
Chinese naval power in the region.
Fiott
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23 Globally it is opined that the ‘rivalry’ between India and China is
destroying the peace and tranquillity of the Indian Ocean Region. Do you
agree?
The Americans and the Europeans need to worry about Chinese Blue water
capability. From Indian perspective a naval war with China in either Indian
Ocean or in South China Sea is a remote possibility as these are too
important places for global commerce. India needs to worry about the
Himalayan theatre in the eventuality of war with China.
B.K.Mishra
No, we have not even started it. But it will change if the US starts cutting
down its defense spending which I seriously doubt, then India has to push
for to increase its maritime capabilities then in that case, it will be left alone
in countering Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean which I doubt will happen.
Balaji Chandramohan
Yes
Harsh V.Pant
24 China has set up bases in Indian Ocean littoral states some of which are
quite close to Indian coast (metaphorically called String of Pearls), such as
Coco Islands in Myanmar. How should India react to this?
We should take all American jargons with our pinch of salt. The RAND
coined String of pearls is one such. There is no naval base in China in Indian
Ocean worth threatening India. And the ports being constructed by China are
purely of economic nature; some of the ports were offered to India to
develop, and in careful analysis one would see that SIGINT posts like in
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Coco are a game most nations play vis-à-vis each other, thus India and China
are no exceptions.
B.K.Mishra
They are not bases to start with. People who write or speak on that have little
background on actual maritime strategy. Maritime strategy is patience
compared to the continental strategy. China despite not having an effective
maritime strategy so far has somewhat started on that note because of an
effective patience which is included in their strategic culture like the British
strategic culture which stems them to develop friendly relations with those
atolls which look for economic support from bigger countries. India should
start both developing the latent hard power and the mild soft power which
includes Naval Diplomacy to counter China’s maritime ambitions within
India’s own backyard
Balaji Chandramohan
25 China is resorting to application of ‘Soft Power’ through diplomacy,
financial aid, and assisting in construction of ports in other neighbouring
states of India. How should India respond to this?
Please be corrected that economic diplomacy is no exhibition of soft power.
This is very much the part of hard power. China has no soft power. It
therefore is attempting to buy acceptance in the global community. India, as
mentioned earlier, needs to articulate her interests and pursue them in the
region and outside without much reference to China.
B.K.Mishra
India should do the same thing. But the problem in India’s strategic culture
is that we are at times perceived as arrogant bullying country by the small
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countries in contrast to India and we still are yet to develop a culture of
compliance for other countries and cultures which for example was one of
the reasons why the British were better before they went on to colonize the
world.
Balaji Chandramohan
26 China has reiterated that Indian Ocean does not belong to India, just
because of the name. Recently even America has said the same. How could
you interpret this?
No point in getting into debate on this. What matters is the rights of nations
over water as defined by the UN. So far as protecting Indian interests and the
economic interests of other countries in Indian Ocean are concerned these
will depend on India’s willingness and preparedness.
B.K.Mishra
Of course, it’s true. Ocean belongs to everybody but we have our interests in
Indian Ocean and beyond. In my opinion, we should not worry on what
others have to say but we need to act which includes developing the
capabilities of our Eastern fleet as I pointed above for operational
capabilities till the Eastern Coast of Chile and till Western Africa which I
think should be of objective. But I’m sure that’s quite ambitious.
Balaji Chandramohan
This is true. The Indian Ocean is largely international waters. Given the
importance to global trade, it is no wonder that China and the US have said
what they did. It would be wrong–and silly–for India to think that they own
the Indian Ocean.
Fiott
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27 How true is the triangular nexus between China, Pakistan and the US as a
strategy against India?
We can just hope that the US is not part of this nexus. But in international
politics no future is uncertain. Thus the best advice to India is to be self reliant
in every sphere and must maintain strategic independence.
B.K.Mishra
That’s wrong in the 21st century. When Soviet Union was present, the question
has some truth. US when it has a strong China to contain and counter will not
have an effective countering strategy against India.
Balaji Chandramohan
28 India has brought out its first Maritime Doctrine in the year 2004. Does this
fact imply that we had neglected the development factor of our navy for long?
Not much idea about the maritime Doctrine. But we certainly did not do many
of the things we needed to have done navy is no exception.
B.K.Mishra
Our security threats were continental and we have focussed on that for long. But
if you ask me personally, India’s greatest ever security threat was through its
oceans by Japan which didn’t of course happen thanks to the US intervention
and which is true even for now. An effective maritime strategy for not an
organic naval power such as India requires a lot of effort from the political
leadership and vision which is not there in place.
Let’s not forget there is an inter-service rivalry between Indian Army and Navy
also therefore it’s hard to find a consensus on issues as having the required
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capabilities for Out of Area Contingency Operations and developing the synergy
in the inter-service operations
Balaji Chandramohan
Perhaps, but doctrines are very important because they help a country focus on
the pressing needs – hopefully based on empirical realities. The fact that India
now has doctrine means that it is also maturing as an emerging power. These
things are to be expected of rising powers. It also shows a degree of
transparency on the part of India.
Fiott
Yes
Harsh V.Pant
29 The allocation of budget outlay to the Indian Defence forces in the last five
years has gone up from one lakh mark to two crore mark (in Indian Rupees)
in numbers. But this is less than one-third of China’s military outlay. What
does it imply?
Nothing except both consider military to be important and spending according
to their abilities
B.K.Mishra
Let’s be clear on that and that’s factual. China’s security threats are manifold.
From Russia to the United States to Japan to India of course therefore there is a
need for them to have such robust defense budget and let’s not forget that PLA
is also involved in the internal affairs of China which is not the case in India to
that much, therefore an increased attention for defense from Chinese side is
logical. India’s security threats are from Pakistan and China. Pakistan can’t
fight a major war with India and India can’t fight a major war with China alone
and in that case, the strategic vision is to have a capability for defensive
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purposes and I suppose the budget out lay in a way does justice to that.
Balaji Chandramohan
China has more expendable income, and/or India is prioritising other domestic
issues. In any case, the data can be misleading on military spending. The
military outlay of China is unclear in terms of where the money is being spent.
It is one thing to put all your money into developing military capabilities, but
how do we know if China’s increased costs are just going on administrative
costs. The defence figures coming out of China are incoherent and do not show
us fully what the money is being spent on. Remember, just because you spend
loads on defence does not mean that it is being spent wisely.
Fiott
That India cannot compete with China militarily….
Harsh V.Pant
30 China is said to be investing in R&D on a large scale with an aim to develop
indigenous capability for building and modernising its naval infrastructure
while India is still said to be highly dependent on import of technology and
equipment. How could this affect the preparedness of our navy?
To emerge as a big power, indigenous capability is a must. Here India must take
a lesson from China and invest more in R&D. No alternatives.
B.K.Mishra
China has got support on Research and Development from the erstwhile Soviet
Union when it got disintegrated most of the scientists went to lucrative offers
for China. China was also smart enough to tap them which we didn’t of course.
Our R&D which is primarily indigenous is not providing a system for effective
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way to attract brighter young talents.
Balaji Chandramohan
R&D projects take a long time to yield workable results. The equipment/tech
being imported by India is already advanced and it is less costly – China will
have the problem of pumping loads of money into R&D projects without a
guarantee that its researchers will come up with the next line in military
technological advance. This may change over time but one must not forget that
countries other than India and China are still undertaking R&D research.
Fiott
31 Do you think that India’s naval power would ever match with Chinese naval
power? If so, in how many years?
On paper, India is stronger to China only in naval capacity so …..
B.K.Mishra
Indian navy’s capabilities are better than China’s at least in the Indian Ocean
region and I think if the notion to increase out naval capabilities will have a
consensus among other countries in the Asia Pacific region such as Japan, the
US, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines which is a
bonus for us unlike Chinese naval capabilities.
Balaji Chandramohan
Well this depends on what is meant by naval power. China has gone the
traditional route of buying and refurbishing aircraft carriers, but it remains to be
seen if carriers really add power (we live in an era of sophisticated missiles).
Perhaps the future of naval power rests in more flexible and speedy units, or
perhaps with unmanned naval vehicles. That said, there is no reason to believe
that India cannot match China but it all depends on what each government
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prioritises – if the economies continue to do well then money will be available
for defence, but when the economy slumps then governments have to make a
decision about how much to spend on defence (look at Europe and the US right
now). As seems to be the case from recent history, it still pays to have alliances
with other partners – India+US+Japan+Australia vs. China is a more sensible
strategic path.
Fiott
Indian naval power almost a decade behind China’s
Harsh V.Pant
32 Is Indian Maritime Doctrine successful in identifying all the areas of concern
for India and the strategies to effectively address them?
Have to Check the Doctrine
B.K.Mishra
India’s Maritime Doctrine is effective in identifying the areas of concerns for
India but what it lacks is the ability to find an effective strategic arc. I’m not
quite satisfied with the notion of having Gulf of Aden to Strait of Malacca
concept. I think we can extend it as I argue till South Pacific for our Eastern
Fleet and West Africa for our Western Fleet. There is also a case of us to
develop bases in many of the atolls which will all be a part of doctrine which of
course is not the case at present. Second, though the doctrine spells out the
region from Gulf of Aden to Malacca, I think we should also try to strengthen
the existing tri-command services such as the one in Andamans and to have one
such similar command in the Lakshadweep-overall effective strategy.
Balaji Chandramohan
I think so, but the degree to which it fits in with a larger strategic plan for the
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country remains a question. Do not forget that India is a maritime and land
country. Naval power is important – especially as it is a trading nation – but it
remains vulnerable in the north of the country in its borders with China et al.
India will not be able to police the Indian ocean and beyond on its own – I think
it would make good sense for the country to boost its naval partnerships with
the other big democracy, the United States. Finally, there is no point in having
any strategy if you do not have the capabilities – this will take India some time.
Fiott
Comments received from Dr. Subhash Kapila
1. China's military modernisation is threatening India's security because India's
war preparedness has been lagging due to our PMs and his NSA wrong
assessments of China like what Nehru did.
2. China has kept India strategically confined within South Asian confines
through its nuclear armed surrogate PAKISTAN, fomenting insurgencies on
India's peripheries, establishing a ring of naval bases in the Indian Ocean to
limit India’s maritime control of Indian Ocean etc.
3. China is not serious about any boundary dispute resolution with India as it
serves as a constant strategic pressure point against India.
4. China -India relations can never be peaceful or friendly as China believes that
it is its destiny to dominate Asia as the undisputed leader. India will not
acquiesce on this.
5. India needs strong and assertive Prime Ministers, better National Security
Advisers and dynamic Defence Ministers if it wishes to effectively deal with
THE CHINA THREAT which is VERY REAL.