appa annual conference june 21, 2005 mark shea banc of america securities (720) 956-3326 natural gas...
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APPA Annual ConferenceJune 21, 2005
Mark SheaBanc of America Securities(720) 956-3326
Natural Gas Supply Acquisition Options
Banc of America Securities provides investment banking and securities products domestically and, on a limited basis, offshore. Other products and services, including products and services that may be referenced in the accompanying materials, may be provided through affiliates of Banc of America Securities. Copyright 2001 Banc of America Securities LLC. Banc of America Securities LLC, member NYSE/NASD/SIPC, is a subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.
American Public Power Association
BAS Experience
$425,000,000 Municipal Gas Authority of Mississippi, Series 2005 May 2005 Sole manager Located supplier and led supply agreement negotiations
$55,000,000 Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia, Portfolio III Series 2003B July 2004 Partial conversion of Portfolio III Series 2003A to tax-exempt Lead manager
$44,280,000 Southeast Alabama Gas District, Series 2003B June 2004 Partial conversion of Portfolio III Series 2003A to tax-exempt Lead manager
$305,960,000 American Public Energy Agency, Series 2003 A&B December 2003 First natural gas prepay closed under the new IRS regulations Book-running manager Located supplier and led supply agreement negotiations
$83,395,000 Southeast Alabama Gas District, Series 2003A May 2003 Working interest acquisition Book-running manager Identified, analyzed and advised Southeast Alabama Gas District on the reserve purchase.
$121,000,000 Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia, Portfolio III Series 2003A January 2003 Working interest acquisition Book-running manager Identified, analyzed and advised Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia on the reserve purchase.
Select Banc of America Securities Energy Group Natural Gas Transactions 2003 to Present
Long-Term Supply Goals
Municipal long-term gas acquisition goals Enhance delivery reliability Achieve competitive purchase price Reduce price volatility Avoid supplier credit issues Complement existing pipeline positions Build diversified supply portfolio
Primary acquisition methodologies Prepaid forward natural gas contracts Working ownership interests in gas reserves Structured ownership interests in gas reserves
Long-Term Supply Overview
Risk
Reward
PrepaysStructured
Reserve Ownership Working Interest
Ownership
$0.15/MMBtu $0.50/MMBtuDiscount to Index
Global Factors
Exploration & production companies: Have significant excess cash flow Are unwilling to collateralize or credit enhance prepays Have paid down most redeemable debt Are aggressively bidding up prices on producing assets
Interest rate environment is problematic (but improving)
Interest rates are low (but rising)
Taxable - tax-exempt spreads at historical lows (but increasing)
Record municipal issuance (but falling)
The above factors make it difficult to economically execute any natural gas acquisition strategy at this time.
Prepay Economic Factors
“AA”
“A”
“BBB”
“BB”
Structural
Economic
Municipal
Dual
Supplier
Long
Short
TENOR
CREDIT STRUCTURE
COUNTERPARTY
SWAPS
Risk
Economics
Contractual Natural Gas Risks
Explicit Risks
Natural Gas Price Risk
Supplier Risk
Acquiring and owning natural gas reserves entails explicitly accepting many risks which heretofore municipalities have only accepted implicitly.
Implicit Risks
Reserve Risk
Production Risk
Operating Cost Risk
Delivery Risk
Environmental Risk
Other Risks
Ownership - Rewards & Risks
Significant Economics Savings
Improved Supply Security
Supplier Credit Risk Eliminated
Asset Specific Rather Than Global Risk
Price Environment: Discreet vs. Continuous
Ownership Structures
Working Interests
Volumetric Production Payment
Overriding Royalty Interest
Net Profits Interest
Finance able with tax-exempt debt
Yes No Yes Yes
Term of transaction Life of fieldSpecific number
of yearsLife of field Life of field
Reserve risk to buyer Yes Limited Yes Yes
Responsible for opex or capex
Yes No NoYes
(with limits)
Seller accounting treatment *
True SaleDeferred revenue
True sale True sale
Seller tax implications* Capital Gain None Capital gain Capital gain
Buyer’s credit risk to seller
None None None None
Control of Asset Yes No No No
* Participants should consult their tax and accounting advisors with regards to the tax and accounting treatment of these transactions.
Execution
Portfolio Construction
Acquisition Structure
Price Environment
Counterparty
Geography
Joint Action – Spread the Risk
Natural gas is no different than almost all other assets; risk is substantially decreased by building a portfolio.
The goal is to build, over time, a portfolio of supply transactions where the economic benefits received more than compensates for the change in risk profile.
Conclusions
Difficult market for long-term transactions Overheated E&P sector Low interest rates
Limited number of prepays are getting done
Be patient – take a long-term view
Take what the market gives you
Understand how the economics are being generated
Acquire assets in a disciplined manner