apec training course on on qpeqpe / / qpfqpf yeung_part... · 2017-12-06 · apec training course...

APEC Training Course APEC Training Course on on QPEQPE / / QPFQPF

Linus H.Y. Yeung, Scientific Officer, Hong Kong ObservatoryLinus H.Y. Yeung, Scientific Officer, Hong Kong Observatory

29 March 201229 March 2012

Quezon City, PhilippinesQuezon City, Philippines

RainfallRainfall--Related Warning Systems Practiced by a Related Warning Systems Practiced by a NMHSNMHS

Part A Part A -- OverviewOverview

Hong Kong Hong Kong ExperienceExperience

APEC Training Course on QPE/QPF 2012 Linus H.Y. Yeung, HKO 3

Some Facts about Hong KongSome Facts about Hong KongPopulationPopulation: 7.07 million : 7.07 million (mid 2010)(mid 2010)

Area: ~ 1,104 sq. kmArea: ~ 1,104 sq. km

Averaged no. of Averaged no. of TCsTCs affecting Hong Kong: affecting Hong Kong: 6.6.1414 / yr / yr (1961(1961--2010)2010)

Mean annual rainfall (1981Mean annual rainfall (1981--2010):2010):

1,400 ~ 3,000 mm 1,400 ~ 3,000 mm (location dependent)(location dependent); 2,398.5 mm at ; 2,398.5 mm at HKOHKO

Highest yearly rainfallHighest yearly rainfall ((HKOHKO):): 3343.0 mm 3343.0 mm (1997)(1997)

Highest hourly rainfall (Highest hourly rainfall (HKOHKO): ): 145.5145.5 mmmm

88--9 am, 7 June 20089 am, 7 June 2008

Highest hourly mean wind speed: 133 km/hHighest hourly mean wind speed: 133 km/h

T. Wanda on 1 September 1962T. Wanda on 1 September 1962

Maximum wind gust: 259 km/hMaximum wind gust: 259 km/h

T. Wanda on 1 September 1962T. Wanda on 1 September 1962


Rainfall Distribution in Hong KongRainfall Distribution in Hong Kong

Rainfall distribution (mm) over Rainfall distribution (mm) over Hong Kong on 2 July 1997 with a Hong Kong on 2 July 1997 with a peak over 700 mmpeak over 700 mm

Average annual rainfall distribution (mm) Average annual rainfall distribution (mm) over Hong Kong between 1981over Hong Kong between 1981--2010 2010

with a peak over 3,000 mmwith a peak over 3,000 mm


Severe Weather Climatology Severe Weather Climatology Major convective weather systems in HKMajor convective weather systems in HK ::

cold front, convergence line, SW monsoon, monsoon cold front, convergence line, SW monsoon, monsoon trough, tropical cyclone, landtrough, tropical cyclone, land--seabreezeseabreeze

occurrence of severe weathers/warningsoccurrence of severe weathers/warnings::Weather Hazards Duration Frequency

start end (years) (no. / year)

Thunder/Lighting 1977 2010 34 2741 warnings 80.6Amber Rainstorm 1997 2010 14 310 warnings 22.1

Severe Squalls 1987 2006 20 214 days 10.7Red Rainstorm 1997 2010 14 66 warnings 4.7

Flooding 1998 2010 13 61 announcements 4.7Landslip 1983 2010 28 94 warnings 3.4

Black Rainstorm 1997 2010 14 17 warnings 1.2Hail 1977 2010 34 32 reports 0.9

Waterspout 1977 2010 34 24 reports 0.7Tornado 1982 2010 29 8 reports 0.3

Total NumberPeriod

Contingency Contingency Plan for Plan for Natural Natural DisastersDisasters


Contingency Plan for Natural Contingency Plan for Natural Disasters of the Disasters of the HKSARGHKSARGSecurity BureauSecurity Bureau

Emergency Support UnitEmergency Support Unitresponses to natural disasters such responses to natural disasters such as rainstorms, tropical cyclones, as rainstorms, tropical cyclones, tsunami, etc.tsunami, etc.summarisessummarises the the govgov. alerting . alerting systems and systems and organisationalorganisationalframework for responding to such framework for responding to such disastersdisasterssets out functions and sets out functions and responsibilities of responsibilities of govgov. depts. and . depts. and other bodiesother bodies

detailed operational instructions for detailed operational instructions for each departmenteach department

monitors info. flowmonitors info. flow http://http://www.sb.gov.hk/eng/emergency/cp.htmlwww.sb.gov.hk/eng/emergency/cp.html


Key PlayersKey PlayersSecurity Bureau (Security Bureau (EMSCEMSC))Education Bureau (closing of schools)Education Bureau (closing of schools)Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority (cancelling of public exams)(cancelling of public exams)Transport Department (traffic arrangement and (traffic arrangement and coordinationscoordinations))Geotechnical Engineering Office (landslipGeotechnical Engineering Office (landslip))Drainage Services Department (flooding)Drainage Services Department (flooding)Home Affairs Department (opening of shelters(opening of shelters))Marine Department ((sea rescuessea rescues) ) Hong Kong Observatory (weather warnings)Hong Kong Observatory (weather warnings)


Communication SystemCommunication System

phone & faxphone & faxHKO

EDB

Info. Services

Telecom. Auth.

SB / EMSC

Transport Dept.Fire services

other depts.telecom

operatorstransport operators


Example of message passing during Example of message passing during inclement weather situationsinclement weather situations

HKOHKO TD TD public transport operatorspublic transport operators

before changes of high signals of before changes of high signals of TCTC warningwarning

No. 3 (strong wind) No. 3 (strong wind) No. 8 (gale wind or above)No. 8 (gale wind or above)

stoppage of public transportationsstoppage of public transportations

bus, ferry and railwaybus, ferry and railway

activation of control measuresactivation of control measures

for major bridges, routes, etc.for major bridges, routes, etc.


CoordinationsCoordinations with Partnershipswith PartnershipsPreset arrangements, e.g.:Preset arrangements, e.g.:

closing of schools during closing of schools during TCTCwork arrangement work arrangement

http://www.edb.gov.hk/UtilityManager/circular/upload/EMBC/EMBC07003E.pdf

http://www.labour.gov.hk/tc/public/pdf/wcp/Rainstorm.pdf


Summary of Summary of CPNDCPND ElementsElements

A comprehensive emergency planA comprehensive emergency plan

Accurate forecasts and effective warning Accurate forecasts and effective warning

systems (Part B refers)systems (Part B refers)

coordination and communication among coordination and communication among

partners & publicpartners & public

public reception and responsivenesspublic reception and responsiveness

Coordination Coordination &&

CommunicationCommunication


Missions of the ObservatoryMissions of the Observatory

weather monitoring round the clockweather monitoring round the clock

timely warnings for the publictimely warnings for the public

render support for emergency departments render support for emergency departments

and organizationsand organizations


Amber SignalAmber Signal

Red SignalRed Signal

Black SignalBlack Signal

Rainstorm Rainstorm WarningsWarnings

Tropical Cyclone Tropical Cyclone Warning SignalsWarning Signals

No.1: Standby Signal No.1: Standby Signal TCTC within within 800 km 800 km of HKof HK

No.3: Strong windNo.3: Strong wind

No.8: Gale or storm No.8: Gale or storm force windforce wind

No.9: No.9: Increasing gale Increasing gale or storm force windsor storm force winds

No.10: Hurricane No.10: Hurricane force windforce wind

Severe Weather WarningsSevere Weather Warnings

hourly rainfall 30 mmwidespread & persistent




Other Related WarningsOther Related Warnings

Landslip WarningLandslip Warning

Special Announcement on Flooding in Special Announcement on Flooding in the northern New Territoriesthe northern New Territories

Thunderstorm WarningThunderstorm Warning


Public Dissemination Public Dissemination ChannlesChannles

public

Internet(HKO website: www.weather.gov.hk,

Twitter, YouTube, etc.)

Dial-a-weather1878 200

Mobile Platforms(MyObservatory on Android, iPhone, iPad, WAP, SMS)

Mass media(radio, TV & press)


HKOHKOss Website Website www.weather.gov.hkwww.weather.gov.hk

Regional WeatherRegional WeatherttempempwindwindRHRHVisVis

Rainfall MapsRainfall Maps

Weather Weather WarningsWarnings

Local Local Weather Weather ForecastForecast


DialDial--aa--WeatherWeather 1878 2001878 200

Local Local wxwx. . f/cf/c

Regional Regional WxWx: : temp, wind, temp, wind, r/fr/f, etc, etc

Warnings & Warnings & TCTC Info.Info.


Latest weather information specific to your location automaticalLatest weather information specific to your location automatically ly delivered to your hands through GPS or other positioning methodsdelivered to your hands through GPS or other positioning methods

MyObservatoryMyObservatory Personalized Personalized WxWx. Services. Services


Suite of Products / ServicesSuite of Products / ServicesWeather WarningsWeather WarningsLocal Weather Forecasts Local Weather Forecasts Regional Weather Regional Weather

temp, RH, wind, temp, RH, wind, visvis, etc, etc

Satellite & radar imageriesSatellite & radar imageriesLightning location info. Lightning location info. TCTC trackstracksUV indexUV indexAstronomy and tidesAstronomy and tidesWeather forecast for main citiesWeather forecast for main citiesHKO@HKO@YouTubeYouTubeand many others and many others


Weather on Social Networks (1)Weather on Social Networks (1)HomeHome--made videos broadcast on YouTube every made videos broadcast on YouTube every Friday, reviewing weather last week and introducing Friday, reviewing weather last week and introducing scientific topics of public interestscientific topics of public interest

http://www.youtube.com/hkweather


Weather on Social Networks (2)Weather on Social Networks (2)

@ @ WeiboWeibo of of SinaSina((http://http://t.sina.com.cn/hkobservatoryt.sina.com.cn/hkobservatory) )

@ Twitter @ Twitter ((http://http://twitter.comtwitter.com))


WxWx Dissemination Channels for GovDissemination Channels for Gov

TelephoneDedicated lines GOWISE

Email (warnings)

FAX

Gov. Dept. FTP (data)

XML

From: HK Observatory10:05 am 1/6/2005

Lightning has been detected atWanchaiTsim ShaTsuiYuen Long

SMS


Customized Customized WebpagesWebpages for for Each Gov. Dept.Each Gov. Dept.

Transport Transport Dept.Dept.

Education Education BureauBureau

Civil Eng. Dev. Dept.Civil Eng. Dev. Dept.


Outreach ActivitiesOutreach Activitiesample preparations before rain seasonsample preparations before rain seasonsmeetings with major partnersmeetings with major partners

mutual understanding on needs and communication mutual understanding on needs and communication protocalprotocalfor early arrangementfor early arrangementcommunication exercisescommunication exercises

prepre--rain seminars for rain seminars for govgov. . depts. and public sectorsdepts. and public sectors

listen to their ideaslisten to their ideasrefresher on all warnings and refresher on all warnings and precautionary measuresprecautionary measuresintroducing new weather servicesintroducing new weather services


Maintaining a Live DialogMaintaining a Live Dialog

when inclement weather occurswhen inclement weather occurscommunicating weather info. through communicating weather info. through GOWISEGOWISE to to govgov. . deptsdepts

GOGOvernmentvernment WWeather eather IInformation nformation SESErverrver

timely telephone notificationtimely telephone notificationwhen warning signal is due to changewhen warning signal is due to change

effective communicationeffective communicationbackup focal pointbackup focal pointpass on key messagepass on key messageuse only standard use only standard protocalprotocal


AftermathAftermath

post inclement weather activitiespost inclement weather activities

regular review on operational regular review on operational

arrangement and warning dissemination arrangement and warning dissemination

mechanismmechanism

seek public opinionsseek public opinions

revise arrangement and improve services revise arrangement and improve services

as necessaryas necessary

Interacting Interacting with with

PublicPublic


media conferencemedia conference radioradio

pampletspamplets / flyers/ flyers InternetInternet


Public Response if They TrustPublic Response if They Trust

weather service

safe trip home

+ trus

t+ t

rust

Question: how to build up public trust on Question: how to build up public trust on occasional warningoccasional warning??

warning


The Key to Trust / ConfidenceThe Key to Trust / Confidencepublic education and outreach

maintain good working relationshipswith users

readiness & preparedness

pursuit of scientific excellence


Some Indicators Some Indicators -- TCTC CasualtyCasualty (1946-2009)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1946

1957

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1962:130

1971:112

Casualties (dead and missing) in Hong Kong during Casualties (dead and missing) in Hong Kong during TCTC situations situations


Landslip FatalitiesLandslip Fatalities

Concluding Concluding

RemarksRemarks


Brief History of Brief History of WxWx Warnings in HKWarnings in HK

act. + f/ccolours

1883 1917 1970 1980 1990 20001884 1917 1967 1973 1983 1987 1992

No.1 ... 10 service enhanced

1998

service continue to enhance to meet the needs of public

~ ~ ~ ~

Decades of continuous effort Decades of continuous effort by generations of dedicated by generations of dedicated meteorologists + meteorologists + operational operational experience and feedbacks experience and feedbacks from usersfrom users


Increasing Demand from the Increasing Demand from the Public Public shortening of time scalesshortening of time scales

Forecast / Forecast / Warning Warning

Time scaleTime scale

TCTCWarningWarning

Rainstorm Rainstorm WarningWarning

Landslip Landslip WarningWarning

CategorizedCategorizedRainstorm Rainstorm WarningWarning

Thunderstorm Thunderstorm (squalls)(squalls)WarningWarning

18401840


Timely Warnings Timely Warnings

Do we really meet the expectations of users?Do we really meet the expectations of users?

lead time lead time providedprovided prediction skill

delivery latency

time scale of weather

lead time lead time expectedexpected

time taken for time taken for responsesresponses

WxWx. Service. Service

End UsersEnd Users


existing service

existing expectationexisting expectation

gap enhanced service

new expectationnew expectation

new gap

Changing Expectation of UsersChanging Expectation of UsersUser expectation will stagger up following User expectation will stagger up following the introduction of new/enhanced servicethe introduction of new/enhanced serviceThe gap will always exist even The gap will always exist even if there is continuous service if there is continuous service improvementimprovement


service level

expectation

gapenhanced

service

managed managed expectationexpectationgap narrowed

public education & outreach

Science & technology

Managing User ExpectationsManaging User Expectations


Summary on Effective WarningSummary on Effective Warning

meet the needs of publicmeet the needs of public

evolve as the society changesevolve as the society changes

timely, precise, easily understood timely, precise, easily understood

clear and actionable precautionary measuresclear and actionable precautionary measures

effective coordination / communicationeffective coordination / communication

public education/outreach to gain public education/outreach to gain trust/confidence from users trust/confidence from users

expectation managementexpectation management


inform, inform,

response

response

& live long

& live long

To continue with Part B To continue with Part B Warning Systems & Weather WatchWarning Systems & Weather WatchPart C Part C Nowcasting SupportNowcasting Support for Rainstorm & Related Warningsfor Rainstorm & Related Warnings

APEC Training Course on QPE / QPFHong Kong ExperienceSome Facts about Hong KongRainfall Distribution in Hong KongSevere Weather Climatology Contingency Plan for Natural DisastersContingency Plan for Natural Disasters of the HKSARGKey PlayersCommunication SystemExample of message passing during inclement weather situationsCoordinations with PartnershipsSummary of CPND ElementsCoordination &CommunicationMissions of the ObservatorySevere Weather WarningsOther Related WarningsPublic Dissemination ChannlesHKOs Website www.weather.gov.hkDial-a-Weather 1878 200MyObservatory Personalized Wx. ServicesSuite of Products / ServicesWeather on Social Networks (1)Weather on Social Networks (2)Wx Dissemination Channels for GovCustomized Webpages for Each Gov. Dept.Outreach ActivitiesMaintaining a Live DialogAftermathInteracting with PublicPublic Response if They TrustThe Key to Trust / ConfidenceSome Indicators - TC CasualtyLandslip FatalitiesConcluding RemarksBrief History of Wx Warnings in HKIncreasing Demand from the Public shortening of time scalesTimely Warnings Changing Expectation of UsersManaging User ExpectationsSummary on Effective Warning

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