APEC Demand and Supply Outlook 5th Edition

A Preliminary APERC View

5 March, 2012

APERC Workshop, Kuala Lumpur

Ralph D. Samuelson 　Vice President

Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

1

• In 2009, APERC published the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 4th Edition

• Work now underway on the 5th edition, to be published in late 2012

APEC Energy Outlook

2

• A 25 year look ahead (2010-2035) assuming business-as-usual and several alternative cases

• Project energy supply by fuel and demand by sector, electricity generation by fuel; installed generation capacity, CO2 emissions, energy intensity

• Published in two volumes: – Volume 1: Mainly sector discussions– Volume 2: Mainly individual economy discussions

• Draws on expertise of APERC researchers as well as other expert advice

Outlook 5th Edition Description

3

• Entirely new modelling software has been developed• Preliminary business-as-usual projections have been

estimated for all economies. • A thorough internal review of the business-as-usual

projections for each economy is now underway.• Software to summarize and graph key results by

economy, by region, and APEC-wide has been developed• APERC researchers are currently writing the Volume 2

sections, which discuss the results for each economy.

The Progress So Far

4

• Alternative cases to business-as-usual will be developed over the next few months and included in the Outlook

• Writing of Volume 1 and the remaining writing of Volume 2, including editing by a professional editor

• Peer reviews of the results for each economy will be invited through APEC EGEDA representatives late this year

• The complete Outlook is expected to be published by the end of the year

Remaining Tasks

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South Pacific Business-As-Usual

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　 South Pacific Will Be a Rapidly Growing Gas Producer and Exporter 　　

7

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Imp

ort

(MT

OE

)

Coal Oil Gas Coal Imports Oil Imports Gas Imports

Gas and NRE Have Growing Roles in South Pacific Electricity Generation

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65% 67% 71% 69%64%

57%52% 51% 51% 50%

11% 9%10% 14%

18%27%

31% 31% 30% 32%

20% 21% 16% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

6% 7% 8% 9% 9%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Import

And Growth in South Pacific Primary Energy Demand is in Lower-Emissions Fuels

90

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MT

OE

Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Electricity-Net Import

Consequently, South Pacific CO2 Emissions Almost Level Off

100

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

CO

2

Coal Oil Gas

Southeast Asia Business-As-Usual

11

Southeast Asia Energy Demand Will Grow Quickly

120

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MT

OE

Industry Other Non-Energy Domestic Transport International Transport

Consequently, SE Asia Will Become Net Gas Importer and Growing Oil Importer

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-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Imp

ort

(MT

OE

)

Coal Oil Gas Coal Imports Oil Imports Gas Imports

And Southeast Asia CO2 Emissions will Grow Rapidly

140

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

CO

2

Coal Oil Gas

North America Business-As-Usual

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North America Will Increase Oil and Gas Production

16

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Imp

ort

(MT

OE

)

Coal Oil Gas Coal Imports Oil Imports Gas Imports

N.A. Gas and Renewables Have Increased Roles in Electricity Generation

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48% 47% 49% 46% 44%39% 36% 33% 30% 28%

11% 13%14% 17%

20%22%

23%25% 28% 31%

15% 16%13% 13%

13%13% 13% 12% 12% 12%

7% 10% 11% 12% 12%

19% 20% 19% 18% 19% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Import

And N.A. Growth in Primary Energy Demand is in Low-Emissions Fuels

180

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MT

OE

Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Electricity-Net Import

Consequently, North American CO2 Emissions Level Off

190

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

CO

2

Coal Oil Gas

Northeast Asia Business-As-Usual

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The Incredible Chinese Growth Story Continues

21

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Po

pu

lati

on

(Mil

lion

)

Rea

l GD

P (2

005

Bil

lio

n U

S$

PP

P)

Population

GDP

US$31,000/person

Assumed China GDP Growth Rates: 2010-2020: 8.1% 2020-2030: 6.0% 2030-2035: 4.5%

NE Asia Primary Energy Demand Grows

22

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Ind

ex (2

005

= 1

00)

Total Primary Energy Supply Index GDP Index Primary Energy Intensity Index

Although China’s Energy Production Grows, NE Asia Oil Imports Grow Rapidly

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Imp

ort

(MT

OE

)

Coal Oil Gas Coal Imports Oil Imports Gas Imports

NE Asia Nuclear, NRE, Hydro, and Gas Generation Grow, But Coal is Still King

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38%45%

52%61%

66% 64% 61% 59% 59% 59%

20%15%

9%

6%11% 10% 11%9% 6% 7%

9% 10% 11% 12%

14% 12% 11%11% 18% 15%

15% 14% 13% 11%

6% 7% 7% 7%

17% 18% 17% 13%5% 8% 10% 10% 10% 10%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Import

So Northeast Asia’s CO2 Emissions Grow…

250

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

CO

2

Coal Oil Gas

…But Per Person CO2 Still Remains About Average for APEC

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Russian Federation Business-As-Usual

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Russia’s Gas Production and Exports Grow, But Oil Production and Oil Exports Peak Then Decline

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-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Imp

ort

(MT

OE

)

Coal Oil Gas Coal Imports Oil Imports Gas Imports

Russia’s Nuclear Generation Continues to Grow…

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15%19% 20% 17% 15% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10%

12%8%

47%41%

42%46%

46%43% 42% 42% 41% 40%

15%20%

19% 18%

14%

15% 14% 14% 13% 13%

11% 12% 15% 16%24%

30% 31% 32% 34% 36%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Import

…Slowing the Growth of Russia’s CO2 Emissions

300

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

CO

2

Coal Oil Gas

Latin America Business-As-Usual

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Latin America Energy Gas Production Grows, But Oil Production is More Stagnant

32-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Imp

ort

(MT

OE

)

Coal Oil Gas Coal Imports Oil Imports Gas Imports

Latin America Final Demand Grows Rapidly in All Sectors

330

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MT

OE

Industry Other Non-Energy Domestic Transport International Transport

Latin America’s Electricity Generation Shows Growing Share of Gas

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10% 11% 11% 13% 12% 15% 16% 18% 18% 18%

45%37% 37%

22%

12% 9% 6% 5%

10%

13%20%

35%50% 51% 53% 54% 55% 56%

29%30%

25% 22%21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 16%

5%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Coal Oil Gas Hydro NRE Nuclear Import

So Latin America’s CO2 Emissions Grow

35

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

CO

2

Coal Oil Gas

APEC-Wide Concerns

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Conclusion #1: Oil Security Remains a Major Threat to the APEC Economies

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-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

Imp

ort

(MT

OE

)

Coal Oil Gas Coal Imports Oil Imports Gas Imports

Conclusion #2: Business-As-Usual is Environmentally Unsustainable

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mil

lio

n T

on

nes

CO

2

Electricity Generation Other Transformation IndustryOthers Domestic Transport International Transport

Potential Alternative Cases

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• What would be the impact if APEC economies adopted policies– limiting ‘urban sprawl’ – focusing on developing smart/low-carbon cities/towns

designed for walking, bicycling, and public transportation?

• APERC has a model capable of dealing with this question, but need better data, especially on vehicle ownership and GDP by city

Possible Alternative Case #1: Better City Planning/Compact Cities

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• What would be the impact if APEC economies adopted stricter standards for vehicle fuel economy?

• APERC has a model capable of dealing with this question, but need better data on the current composition of the vehicle fleet in each economy

• Variant of this case might look at vehicle R&D priorities; would APEC be better off if next generation vehicles were:– Electric and other alternative fuel vehicles; or– Made of carbon fiber so as to be super-light and super-efficient?

Alternative Case #2: More Efficient Vehicles

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• What would happen if the APEC economies could more rapidly develop their gas resources, including unconventional gas?

– Use the gas to back out coal in electricity generation

– Thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution

• Potential shale gas resource data available from the US Geological survey for some APEC economies, gap is Southeast Asia; coal bed methane unknown

• Need better resource data, cost data, comparable coal generation costs

• What are the barriers to gas development?

Alternative Case #3: High Gas

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• APERC is looking for alternative cases that:– Could provide interesting insights – Have not been well-examined previously (such

as by IEA)– Can be done in a very limited time

• We welcome your suggestions and your assistance!

Other Alternative Cases?

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Thank you for your kind attention

http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc/http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc/

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