aot sister airport ceo forum 2016 background document · 12 •certain groups of people deprived in...

AOT Sister Airport CEO Forum

2016 Background Document

Sessions 1 & 2

Global Megatrends

Dr. Pierre Coutu

President

Aviation Strategies International

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Forum Moderator – Sessions 1 & 2

The ASI Institute, a division of Aviation Strategies International © 2016

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“Megatrends are global, sustained,

macro forces of development that

impact business, economy, society,

cultures and personal lives thereby

defining our future world and its

increasing pace of change”

Megatrends


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Megatrends

1. Globalization

2. Aging

3. Power Shift Eastward

4. Environment

5. Terrorism

6. Technology

Contents


• Some trends weigh more than others

• Impossible to cover all aspects of trends and scenarios

• Great diversity of opinions, especially for predictions

• “Food for Thought”

• Trends tend to overlap and converge

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Remarks


Objective of Sessions

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Then, what about:

and…


Considering:

1. Globalization

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Globalization is a process of interaction and

integration among the people, companies, and

governments of different nations, a process driven

by international trade and investment and aided by

information technology.

This process has effects on the environment, on

culture, on political systems, on economic

development and prosperity, and on human

physical well-being in societies around the world.Source: Globalization 101


Many Facets

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Source: wiki.ubc.ca


Main Features

• Easier for people to travel, communicate,

and do business internationally

• Globalization process mainly driven by

development of technology,

telecommunications infrastructure, the

internet and free-trade blocs

• Interconnected economies mean more

competition

• Changes in the relationship between rich

and poor countries

• Increased mobility of workforce

• Emergence of global networks

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Main Features (cont’d)

• Global rules and special

purpose governance

• Increased transparency

• Increased accountability of

decision-makers

• Shifting sources of products

and services

• Accelerated information flow

• Personal anxiety

• Pro-globalization and Anti-

globalization lobbies

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Pros

• Economic reorganization of the world

(more efficient)

• Global economies of scale

• Lower consumer prices (i.e., producers

of goods and services become more

efficient)

• Environment-friendly consumer goods

• Increased opportunities for the majority

of people

• Proponents of benefits:

• World Trade Organization, World Economic

Forum

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• Certain groups of people deprived in terms of resources (i.e. unable to cope within increased competitive environment)

• Increased gap between rich and poor fuels potential terrorist reaction

• Worldwide spread of emerging diseases

• Trade in hazardous wastes

• Dilution or destruction of cultural and religious ideals

• Anti-globalization advocates: • Greenpeace, International aid

organizations (e.g. Oxfam), Trade unions

Cons


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• Population aging is the

increase in the number

and proportion of older

people in society

• Population aging has

three possible causes:

• Migration

• Longer life expectancy

(decreased death rate)

• Decreased birth rate

2. Aging Population


World Population over 60

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Source: United NationsThe ASI Institute, a division of Aviation Strategies International © 2016

Impact

• Aging has a significant impact on society. Young people

are more likely to push for political and social change, to

develop and adopt new technologies, to need education,

and tend to commit most crimes

• Older people have different requirements from society and

government as opposed to young people, and frequently

differing values as well

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16

World Population over 60


Life Expectancy in Good Health

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Sample

Countries

Healthy Life

Expectancy

Life

Expectancy

Japan 75 82

Australia 73 80

Canada 72 80

Sweden 73 80

United Kingdom 71 78

United States 69 77

Cuba 68 77

India 54 62

Kenya 44 50

Nigeria 42 45

Source: Public Heath Agency of Canada (2006), D. Butler-Jones


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• Recent democracies consolidating e.g.,

Indonesia, Myanmar, Nigeria

• China a credible challenger to the US

• India’s growth virtually unaffected by the

by global ‘slow down’

• Emerging countries’growth superior to developed

countries

• China growth slowing down but still much higher than

Western countries

• Tremendous economic growth in Asia and Gulf States

• Capital/investment starting to flow from East to West

3. Power Shift Eastward


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Developed vs. Emerging Economies


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Capital Flow and Intra Emerging Market

Trade


4. Environment

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• Rapid human population

growth and increasing

consumption per person

• Decline of ecosystems

• Loss of biodiversity

• Global atmospheric

changes


Impact

• Ecosystem degradation

• Loss of biodiversity

• Natural and man-made disasters

• Global warming

• Pollution

• Shortage of natural resources

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23

Environment – Increase of Disasters


Environment – Natural Disasters

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Environment – Man Made Disasters

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Environment- Ecological Disasters

Business-as-Usual ecological footprint compared to Vision

2050 - How many Earths do we use?

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2.3 Earths (BAU)

1.1 Earths (Vision 2050 )

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Nu

mb

er o

f Eart

hs

Year

Carbon footprint

Cropland

Grazing land

Forest land

Built-up land

Fishing ground


Source: The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)

Environment – The Current Course

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If there is no change

in direction…

The world

might end up

where it is

heading


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• Focus on performance not products

• The overall consumption of the richest fifth of the world’s population is 16 times that of the poorest fifth

• Corporate accountability

• Political Leadership

• Globalization and trade

• Energy management

• Development priorities and aid

Points To Consider


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5. Terrorism


• Definition from U.S. Code of Federal Regulations:

“the unlawful use of force and violence against

persons or property to intimidate or coerce a

government, the civilian population, or any

segment thereof, in furtherance of political or

social objectives.”

• Old phenomenon taking new forms.

• Like everything else, local social, religious and

political grievances are more globalized and

broadcast than ever before.

• The sovereign state system has prevailed and

been reinforced, making it impossible for non-

state actors to impose their will, hence

encouraging asymmetrical warfare.

Today’s Terrorism


Global Terrorism Index 2015


RiskMap 2016


‘Easier’ Terrorism

• The advent of air transportation has made it easier than ever before for:

• People to travel, do business, and connect.

• Terrorists to maximize their attacks by targeting vehicles and locations in which people are gathered in high concentrations.

• The advent of the Internet and social medias has made it easier than ever before for :

• People to communicate and be informed in an instantaneous way.

• Terrorists to connect, communicate, recruit and coordinate their activities.

• State security apparatus to monitor terrorists while still dealing with often near unmanageable volumes of information.


Deaths from Terrorism on the Rise

Question: What has changed between 2012 and now?

Answer: ISIS


The ‘Prevalence’ of Jihadi Terrorism


What to Expect from ISIS?

• The establishment of the Islamic State’s

Caliphate is a tremendous advancement for the

Jihadi cause Al Qaeda could not even dream of

15 years ago.

• Western governments did not take ISIS

seriously until it started to expand so much that

their populations got alarmed and scared.

• Countries fighting in the coalition against ISIS

have succeeded in weakening the organization

to satisfy their public opinions without putting

boots on the ground.

• Being bombarded constantly, ISIS has brought

the fight to Coalition countries as a result.

• ISIS will not go down without a fight. More

attacks targeting Western targets must be

expected.The ASI Institute, a division of Aviation Strategies International © 2016

Targets of Predilection


Terrorist attacks on the transportation system are:

• Difficult to perpetrate given security mechanisms.

• Rare occurrences given their complexity.

• Overly publicized given they target the general public and

amplify existing anxiety about travelling.

• The most lethal given the concentration of people.

Targeting Transportation


A ‘Muslim’ Phenomenon?


Defeating Terrorism

• Governments, especially Western-

style democracies, are subject to

their public opinion.

• Risk ‘zero’ does not exist and will

never exist.

• Guns and intelligence officers vs.

hospital beds and nurses.

• Increasing privacy concerns will

continue to stimulate the debate

about how far governments should

go.


Terrorism in Perspective


Source: Oxfam

6. Technology

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1. Information Technology

2. Artificial Intelligence

3. Robotics

4. Nanotechnology

5. Internet of Things


Technology feels like it is accelerating

– because it actually is

“We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century –

it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate)” –

Ray Kurzweil

Technology – Automation

Robots of the Future

• More autonomous

• Ongoing Human-Robot

interaction

• What is the limit? Or is there

any?

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Source: “Robots of the Future”, www.chilloutpoint.com The ASI Institute, a division of Aviation Strategies International © 2016

Other Important Factors

• Biotechnologies

• Ambiant computing

• Automation

• Artificial Intelligence/DSS

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ARTIFICIAL

INTELLIGENCE

Artificial Intelligence Evolution

A program called AlphaGo,

developed by engineers

at DeepMind, the AI startup

acquired by Google in 2014 for

$580 million, defeated the world’s

No. 1 Go player Lee Sedol

4 games to 1

http://singularityhub.com/2016/03/16/google-beating-grandmaster-sedol-is-bigger-than-ibm-beating-kasparov/

“We pay a significant price for not knowing: not knowing

what’s wrong with a patient; not knowing which part of the

population wants to buy a product; not knowing where to

find critical natural resources; not knowing where the risks

lie in every investor’s portfolio.”

IBM Study

As computers become more able to think like human beings, they will also

expand our capabilities and knowledge. We will move into an era when

computers can augment human knowledge and ingenuity in entirely new ways.

Future evolution of Artificial Intelligence:

2016-2018

Next-gen A.I. systems will exhibit

intelligent behavior

indistinguishable from that of a

human

All five human senses (including taste, smell and touch) will

become part of the normal computing experience

A.I. will help solve some of

society's most daunting

challenges from terrorism

to health related issues

Span of Attention

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Quickly going down


As chips gets smaller, more energy efficient, and more connected, we’ll embed

them in everything around us creating a massive grid of interconnected nodes

collecting information and executing commands.

You can know anything you want, anytime you want,

anywhere you want. A world of instant, high-bandwidth,

communications and near perfect information.

These aren’t “car companies” any longer—

they’re software companies

– Wired.com

eTrack will be connected to existing baggage handling systems so airlines and

ground personnel will also know where your bag is, making recovery when

misplaced an even quicker process.

The 1990s’ fixed Internet wave connected 1 billion users.

By 2020:

50 billion “things” connected to the Internet ranging from bracelets to cars

4 billion users

Big Data + IoT + Cloud

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According to Frost and Sullivan, 90% of the data in the

world has been created in the last two years alone.


TRANSPORTATION

TECHNOLOGY

Hyperloop technology aims to use compressed air

and induction motors to transport freight &

passengers in pods at 760 mph.San Francisco to LA in 35 minutes (vs. 7.5 hours by train today)

IMPACT ON HUMAN CAPITAL

“Developments in genetics,

artificial intelligence, robotics,

nanotechnology, 3D printing

and biotechnology, to name

just a few, are all building on

and amplifying one another.

This will lay the foundation for

a revolution more

comprehensive and all-

encompassing than anything

we have ever seen”

“Computers are not smarter than humans, but they can make better decisions by

taking into account factors beyond human sight.…and they can execute faster new

decisions, without training, and resistance to change.“

70%of the children studying in primary schools

today will ultimately be working in jobs that

do not exist as of today

World Economic Forum 2016 Report

Megatrends Convergence and Overlap

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Aviation Strategies International, © 2016 Source: https://frankdiana.net/2016/04/

Impact of Global Megatrends

Horizon 2030

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Session 1: On Air Transport

Session 2: On the Airport Business

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