“Impact Calculus: Worst Thing in the World” Tournament (75 - 120 minutes)

Instructions: Each student is assigned a common debate impact and they are responsible for defending that it is the largest impact, and responsible for comparing that to whatever your opponent's impact is. They should be creative and use their imagination to make these comparisons and use examples from their Core Files.

Speech Times (you decide who’s affirmative and negative)

Each debate will take between 6-8 minutes and can be one-on-one or two-on-two:

1AC: 1 minute (read your impact card aloud unless it’s been read aloud already - highlight as needed)

1NC: 1 minute (read your impact card aloud unless it’s been read aloud already - highlight as needed)

2AC: 1 minute (reply to your opponents’ impact card and explain why your impact is bigger)

2NC/1NR: 1.5 minutes total (reply to opponents’ impact card and explain why your impact is bigger)

1AR: 45 seconds (use “they say” to reply to your opponents’ attack and continue your attack)

2NR: 45 seconds (use “they say” to reply to your opponents’ attack and summarize debate)

2AR: 45 seconds (summarize debate, defending your impact and summarizing your attack on theirs)

These times are adjustable. You can give each student one minute of prep time if you’d like.

We take a quick vote to decide who advances. You can have the students vote or you can have it be a panel of each coach having one vote and having the students collectively be one vote.

Other rules you can choose to implement:

--if you win, you can take your opponent's impact

--new impacts for the semis/finals if you’d like - wild-card impacts that students are given (or can choose instead of their original impact)

Two ways you can do this:

1) NCAA Bracket style – we start with 16 impacts and go through the finals. a. If you do one-on-one debates, this would mean we would have 15

debates to finish at 6-8 minutes each, which would take up an entire practice.

b. If you do 2-on-2 debates, it requires more teamwork and prep time, but cuts the time for a full tournament in half since each student gets to take part quicker.

c. This might be easier for teams with a smaller number of students and could be done within 75 minutes, or an hour.

d. For a larger team or for teams with shorter practices, have students partner up, or consider breaking this up into two practices and keep track of the bracket.

2) King/Queen of the Hill - Start with one student and have each student go up, with the winner staying up to debate the next student until you get to the end and see who is left standing.

1. Zombie ApocalypseZombie Apocalypse makes it impossible for humans to surviveSchafer 2012 (Taylor, staff writer, 1/31, Zombie Apocalypse According to a Chemist, Psychologist, Science Major - See more at: http://thepointnews.com/2012/01/nsm-colloquium-surviving-a-zombie-apocalypse#sthash.zAJp5L2J.dpuf)

So now that a zombie virus, or something close to it, is biologically possible, what would it take for humans to survive? Eller took the stage next to describe the chemistry of survival.She started off with the basics: food, shelter, and water. But Eller explained that the main concerns would be food and water once you’ve found shelter either fenced in in a rural setting or high above ground in an urban setting. Our main sources of drinkable water would be from an above ground water source, wells, buckets, rain barrels, and fog collectors. To survive, we would only need about two to four liters of water per day.But once we have the water, Eller explained, we have to worry about its cleanliness. Fecal matter, inorganic and organic chemicals, and biological agents that can cause disease are all possibilities, and duplicating today’s modern filtration system under such conditions may not be possible . Eller suggests camping strategies like boiling the water and iodine, as well as sand and gravel filtration and carbon filters, though even those strategies aren’t 100 percent effective.“So now we’re not thirsty anymore, but we’re still hungry,” Eller said. In such strict living conditions, whether it is a rooftop or a fenced in rural setting, Eller explained the basic foods that can be grown and eaten to ensure survival: peanuts, soybeans, and potatoes, all of which have the necessary amino acids needed by our bodies.So after we find shelter, food, and water, we may consider ourselves lucky to have survived. However, Mirabile has little faith in human survival even after these basic needs have been met. “I don’t have much hope for you all to make it,” he openly said. After research was done on the extreme conditions humans would face, and looking at anecdotal evidence, Mirabile explained the main consequences of being trapped in a relatively small space with little food and water, and the same people: depression, hostility, insomnia, fatigue, and anxiety. Also, personality traits make a difference in psychological survival. Mirabile noted the three main categories of personalities that would gauge the chances of survival. The first, “the right stuff” is the category most ideal for survival, when a person is warm, sensitive, work-oriented, and independent. The second and third categories, “the wrong stuff” and “no stuff” both categorize people with low chances of survival. Traits include competitiveness, arrogance, hostility, and verbal aggressiveness. However, none of these traits will necessarily translate over into isolated, confined, and extreme (ICE) conditions. Also, based on research, even if one is able to psychologically survive with “the right stuff,” those would only last for about a 90-day time frame.

2. Giant SpidersWith increased Global Warming, Spiders will grow bigger and fasterLean, 2015 (Geoffrey, reporter for telegraph, 2015, The scariest thing about global warming? Giant, super-fast spiders,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/11546016/The-scariest-thing-about-global-warming-Giant-super-fast-spiders.html)

Forget floods, droughts, sea-level rise and even the melting polar ice caps. Here’s a really compelling reason to worry about global warming. Spiders. Research has already suggested that there will be more of them – and they will grow bigger – as temperatures rise. Now a new study, published in the journal Experimental Biology, has concluded that they are likely to be able to run faster and therefore, be harder to catch. Warm weather speeds up the spiders' joints (AP) It all comes down to how the arachnids move. Instead of using muscles, they rely on fluid to move their limbs. And as it heats up, the fluid’s ebb and flow gets faster. So the researchers found that while they moved sluggishly at a cool 59F (15C), they sprinted around at three times the speed when the thermometer rose to a stifling 104F (40C). They sped up mainly by taking more steps, which also made them clumsier because

they were unable to control their limbs so well. So there you have it: more bigger, speedier spiders, which are more liable to stumble into your bath.

3. PoltergeistsPoltergeists are real and can cause real harm.Ghost of the Prairie, No Date (http://www.prairieghosts.com/poltergeists1.html)

Poltergeist activity is probably the most misunderstood form of paranormal activity, at least in conjunction with haunted houses. The word poltergeist actually means "noisy ghost" when translated from German and for many years, researchers believed that noisy ghosts were causing the phenomena reported in these cases. It was assumed that the things which occurred in a house that was "haunted" by a poltergeist were caused by an outside force. While some cases of real-like “poltergeists” have turned out to be both “intelligent” spirits and the work of human agents, some cases exist that lead researchers to believe that they may actually be combination of the two. I believe it is possible that some locations actually attract both kinds of phenomena! Poltergeists! First, let’s take a look at the two different types of cases that are referred to as “poltergeists”..... Poltergeist cases are the work of actual, intelligent spirits.... while poltergeist-like cases are the work of human agents. What makes this so hard to define is the fact that some cases are a combination of the two.... where haunted locations carry such a charge of energy that they make it possible for ghosts to exist there and for the unconscious energy of the human agent to manifest. In both kinds of cases, similar phenomena takes places, including: knocking and tapping sounds; noises with no visible cause; disturbance of stationary objects like household items and furniture; doors slamming; lights turning on and off; fires breaking out; rock and dirt throwing. In some cases, these events can be tangible evidence of ghosts, but in other cases, while the activity is paranormal, it has nothing to do with the spirits. Leaving out the actual cases involving negative and violent spirits, the current and widely accepted theory behind poltergeist phenomena is that the activity is usually caused by a person in the household. It is believed that this person may be unconsciously manipulating the items in the house by psychokinesis (PK), the power to move things by energy generated in the brain. This kinetic energy remains unexplained, but even mainstream scientists are starting to admit that it does seem to exist.

4. Robot UprisingRobots will turn against us and take over our weapons and technologyTucker 2014 (Patrick Tucker, Defense One, 4/17, Why There Will Be A Robot Uprising, http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/04/why-there-will-be-robot-uprising/82783/)

Computer programs think of every decision in terms of how the outcome will help them do more of whatever they are supposed to do. It’s a cost vs. benefit calculation that happens all the time. Economists call it a utility function, but Omohundro says it’s not that different from the sort of math problem going in the human brain whenever we think about how to get more of what we want at the least amount of cost and risk. For the most part, we want machines to operate exactly this way. The problem, by Omohundro’s logic, is that we can’t appreciate the obsessive devotion of a computer program to the thing it’s programed to do. Put simply, robots are utility function junkies. Even the smallest input that indicates that they’re performing their primary function better, faster, and at greater scale is enough to prompt them to keep doing more of that regardless of virtually every other consideration. That’s fine when you are talking about a simple program like Excel but becomes a problem when AI entities capable of rudimentary logic take over weapons, utilities or other dangerous or valuable assets. In such situations, better performance will bring more resources and power to fulfill that primary function more fully, faster, and at greater scale. More importantly, these systems don’t worry about costs in terms of relationships, discomfort to others, etc., unless those costs present clear barriers to more primary function. This sort of computer behavior is anti-social, not fully logical, but not entirely illogical either. Omohundro calls this approximate rationality and argues that it’s a faulty notion of design at the core of much contemporary AI development. “We show that these systems are likely to behave in anti-social and harmful ways unless they are very carefully designed. Designers will be motivated to create systems that act approximately rationally and rational systems exhibit universal drives towards self-protection, resource acquisition, replication and efficiency. The current computing infrastructure would be vulnerable to unconstrained systems with these drives,” he writes. The math that explains why that is Omohundro calls the formula for optimal rational decision making. It speaks to the way that any rational being will make decisions in order to maximize rewards and lowest possible cost. It looks like this: In the above model, A is an action and S is a stimulus that results from that action. In the case of utility function, action and stimulus form a sort of feedback loop. Actions that produce stimuli consistent with fulfilling the program’s primary goal will result in more of that sort of behavior. That will include gaining more resources to do it. For a sufficiently complex or empowered system, that decision-making would include not allowing itself to be turned off, take, for example, a robot with the primary goal of playing chess. “When roboticists are asked by nervous onlookers about safety, a common answer is ‘We can always unplug it!’ But imagine this outcome from the chess robot’s point of view,” writes Omohundro. “A future in which it is unplugged is a future in which it cannot play or win any games of chess. This has very low utility and

so expected utility maximisation will cause the creation of the instrumental subgoal of preventing itself from being unplugged. If the system believes the roboticist will persist in trying to unplug it, it will be motivated to develop the subgoal of permanently stopping the roboticist,” he writes. In other words, the more logical the robot, the more likely it is to fight you to the death.

5. AliensAliens have gravity weapons a thousand times worse than

nuclear weaponsIndia Daily 8(Jan.30, “Gravity wave applications in Air Force – the technologies reverse engineered from Extraterrestrial UFOs”, http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/18998.asp

The interaction of gravity waves and times form the basis of stability in the 3D universe. If that can be disturbed, the nastiest and most dangerous weapon systems can be created – thousand time worse than nuclear weapons. When relatively immense amount of energy in applied on a point, the effect is amazing. According to some contemporary physicists, it is possible to detach the space from time in a very local area to create havoc in adversary’s weapon systems. Some extraterrestrial UFOs do that all the time to escape the 3D mesh and enter the galactic black holes. They detach the space from time in a very controlled manner. It is similar to using nuclear energy in a controlled chain reaction to generate energy versus uncontrolled manner for the purpose of destruction. Many have suggested, extraterrestrial warfare created planets like Mars. Mars was full of life and some how it lost all its electromagnetic properties to become a barren red planet. Mars may have observed the effects of detaching time from space in a local area.

6. Man-Eating GiantsMan-eating giants live on an island near SicilyMyth Beast, No Date (http://www.mythicalcreatureslist.com/mythical-creature/Laestrygonians#sthash.mGSpLM9M.dpuf)

Laestrygonians are man-eating Giants from the north western coast of Sicily. They would destroy boats that sailed nearby by throwing rocks down at them. They would then kill any surviving crew by spearing them in the water or dragging them ashore to be cooked and eaten. They live in both Lamus and in Telepolyes. They are believed to live in the far north beyond the lands of Spain but some may live further south. Their name is made up of two words the first meaning 'skin' or raw hide' and the other meaning 'to gather'. Being so huge in size it was easy for them to kill others even if their weapons were quite primitive. Odysseus (or Ulysses in some versions) travelled to their island where their crew landed. He sent one of his men to talk to the King of the region, but this emissary was killed by the Giants of the land. The crew then fled in terror having heard this and many died before they could reach the safety of their boats and sail far away.

7. Mutant UprisingGenetic research will create real-life X-Men Mutant Brotherhood

Nerdist, 5-23-2014, "The Genetics Needed to Make X-Men," https://nerdist.com/the-genetics-needed-to-make-x-men/

The power of expressing “dormant genes” isn’t science fiction either, as some chicken embryos can attest. In 2006, researchers investigating the development of chickens discovered that a mutation in one gene caused the embryos to sprout teeth . Scientists already knew that birds lost their teeth around 80 million years ago, so the experiments seemed to indicate that this gene was turned off long ago. After it mutated, teeth returned.

But genomes are not the super power switchboards they seem. While it’s true that turning one gene on or off can have huge consequences, much of our genetics is a tangled mess of interactions involving dozens or hundreds of genes simultaneously. In X-Men lore, the X-gene makes a protein that in turn produces chemical signals throughout the body, inducing mutations on other genes. Becoming a mutant is the result of a radical chemical cascade.

Genetic mutations aren’t the same every human, and especially for every mutant. Dr. Jean Grey, or Phoenix, is a very powerful, very rare mutant. We observe this in nature—larger effects are rare. That’s why evolution takes a long time and new characteristics don’t just spring up.

Going from run-of-the-mill mutants like us to full-fledged X-Men may not be all Hollywood flair. Late last year, researchers uncovered a gene that could potentially allow us to regrow limbs like salamanders or starfish. Salamanders, for example, can fully regrow limbs, eyes, and even parts of their brains. We might have the same ability, but along our evolutionary path something was turned off. Call this research the hunt for the Wolverine gene.

So, how far away are we from being X-Men? How would the next step in human evolution happen?

X-Men Origins: Human

The fundamental tension in the X-Men universe is between humans and mutants, as though Professor X constituted a different, dangerous new species. Indeed, the movies go to great lengths to make you understand that mutants are a new species and “the next evolution” of humans.

8. SharknadoGlobal Warming could cause a sharknadoSuebsaeng 13 ( Asawin, 7/11, can a sharknado really happen? , http://www.motherjones.com/mixed-media/2013/07/sharknado-sharknado-sharknado-sharknado-sharknado)

So exclaims a local TV news reporter as a sharknado—a climate-change-abetted windstorm that sucks in an armada of malevolent sharks—approaches the heart of Los Angeles. As the sharknado descends, the cyclone starts flinging horrifying sharks at an innocent public and Tara Reid. The only logical way to defeat a sharknado is with chainsaws, shotguns, handguns, helicopters, crudely made bombs, and selfless acts of brawny heroism. Could a sharknado happen in real life? Animals often

get caught in the paths of tornadoes, but they typically die before they get the chance to

harm Tara Reid. An Associated Press report from 1969 describes a Florida tornado that swept through Ocean World. Rather than emboldening the sharks and inspiring heightened, Tara Reid-related bloodlust, the tornado sent the startled animals diving for cover at the bottom of their shallow pool. "We haven't counted the sharks yet," the Ocean World president told the press as his team frantically checked up on the park's valuable fish. In the end, his team had no sharknado to report. Furthermore, even if a sharknado were to somehow form and begin chasing Tara Reid, it is probable that the whirlwind of shark would pose a danger to humans beyond accidental crushing.

9. Planet of the ApesPlanet of the Apes could happen for real!Ben Falk, 2015 , "Could Planet Of The Apes Really Happen?," No Publication, https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/could-planet-of-the-apes-really-happen-91744032821.html

The savvy primates in ‘Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes’ may be CGI, but the film presents a terrifying post-apocalyptic world that furthers the central conceit of the decades-long ‘Apes’ franchise. We decided to ask the experts – could the movie happen in real life? The answers may surprise you. YES

“It could happen,” says Professor Volker Sommer, an evolutionary anthropologist and ape expert from University College London. “The average human (from the genus Homo) and the average chimpanzee/bonobo (whose genus is Pan) probably differ in only a few functionally important genetic components. So conceivably, if one could engineer certain Homo-like genetic components into members of the genus Pan, they might become more ‘human-like’.”

There have been increasing worries within the scientific community about over-reaching when it comes to increasing animal intelligence. A report from an Academy of Medical Sciences working group published in 2011 warned of the need for new rules governing research involving attempts to humanize animals. “The fear is that if you start putting very large numbers of human brain cells into the brains of primates suddenly you might transform the primate in something that has some of the capacities that we regard as distinctly human,” said Professor Thomas Baldwin, who worked on the report.

“Fire appears to the key,” says Ray Hammond, a world-renowned futurologist and author of ‘The Modern Frankenstein’. ‘Cooking meat helps process protein much faster and this huge input led to the runaway growth of the mind, the development of language and that actually made humans the dominant species. If [apes] had the impetus of fire and were beginning to stand upright for long periods, they could develop and become the dominant species.”

They would definitely win in a fight – but only if it was hand-to-hand combat. Gorillas have six times the upper body strength of humans.

10. VampiresVampires are so real that local governments in Serbia are warning villagersABC News, 2012http://abcnews.go.com/International/vampire-threat-terrorizes-serbian-village/story?id=17831327

For the people in a tiny Serbian village there is nothing sexy or romantic about a vampire. In fact, they are terrified that one of the most feared vampires of the area has been roused back to life.Rather than 'Twilight's' Edward, the people of Zorazje fear that Sava Savanovic is lurking in their forested mountains of western Serbia.They believe that he is on the move because the home he occupied for so long, a former water mill, recently collapsed. Savanovic is believed to be looking for a new home."People are very worried. Everybody knows the legend of this vampire and the thought that he is now homeless and looking for somewhere else and possibly other victims is terrifying people," Miodrag Vujetic, local municipal assembly member, told ABC News. "We are all frightened."Vujetic said villagers "are all taking precautions by having holy crosses and icons placed above the entrance to the house, rubbing our hands with garlic, and having a hawthorn stake or thorn.""I understand that people who live elsewhere in Serbia are laughing at our fears, but here most people have no doubt that vampires exist," he says.According to legend, Savanovic would kill and drink the blood of the peasants who came to grind their grain at his watermill on the Rogacica River. Tour groups from around the Balkans would come to see the mill. But even tourism had its limits."We were welcoming tourists, but only during the day. Nobody ever overnighted there," said Slobodan Jagodic, whose family owned the mill for over 60 years."We were too scared to repair it, not to disturb Sava Savanovic," says Jagodic. "It's even worse now that it collapsed due to lack of repair."Traditions die slowly in this part of the world. "In the dark forested mountains of Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Macedonia and Croatia, many people still believe

in vampires and take them quite seriously," says Dr. James Lyon, Ph.D, a noted Balkan historian who has done extensive research on the folklore behind vampires."In local folklore, vampires are not potential boyfriends. Rather, they are

hideous, blood thirsty creatures with red eyes and iron teeth that bloat when they feed, and are able to shift their shape,"

11. Planet of the SquidsThe real takeover will be lead by squids, who are waiting for their revenge!

Vancouver Aquarium, 10-8-2015 , "Why Squid, Octopuses and Cuttlefish Will Take Over the World," AquaBlog, https://www.aquablog.ca/2015/10/why-squid-octopuses-and-cuttlefish-will-take-over-the-world/

Over the years there has been a lot of talk about the “inevitable” zombie apocalypse, but I fear there hasn’t been enough attention paid to the very serious threat of squid, octopus, cuttlefish, and chambered nautiluses taking over the world. This group of terrifying animals are known as cephalopods, and they have been underestimated for too long. They have the ability to rise up as our cephalopod overlords and yet, the information to inform and prepare ourselves is little. Now is the time to learn.

Perhaps some of you remain skeptical of this threat. After all they look so unassuming as they are closely related to the slow-moving, and decidedly non-threatening slugs and snails. However, cephalopods have been on earth for around 550 million years, and they’ve been biding their time. Waiting to strike with powerful arms, tentacles and suckers. Here’s what you need to know:

We won’t see them coming.

They know how to hide. After all, they’re floating, delicious bits of soft food for a lot of animals. Sea lions, dolphins, whales and yes, even people, feed on these animals in droves. They may soon seek retribution. They could rise up and you’d never know where they might pop up from. They can squeeze through just about anything and they also appear to just pop up out of nowhere.

Why do they blend in so well? They act like, and dress themselves up like, the things around them (crypsis). They can do this by changing the colour and texture of their skin in an instant, as you see from the video above. They can be smooth, or bumpy, white, deep red, or many variations in between.

The ability to change their colour comes from cells in their skin. Like ink sacs controlled by muscles they can expose different colours, reflective cells, or in some cases, light — to blend in, distract, confuse, or crucially — to communicate with one

another. Even more hair raising? They can blend in perfectly with their environments despite being completely colour blind.

Their eyes are better than ours.

Our eyes have bundles of nerves and blood vessels that light has to pass through before reaching the bits that “see” light at the very back of it. Plus, the blood vessels and nerves come together in one area, giving us a blind spot. Find your blindspot! Close your left eye, and focus only on the small dot. Watch, and the big dot should disappear and reappear!

Octopuses and squids though, have their cells that “see” light in front of their nerves and blood vessels. There’s nothing light has to pass through, and the arrangement means they also have NO blind spot. Their eyes are also relatively large compared to their body — but the shape of the pupil is different in squids (round), octopuses (rectangle), and cuttlefish (W- shaped).

Recent research also indicates some of these animals might even be able to “see” light with their skin. All the better to see you with, my dear.

12. The Birds!Crows are super-smart and clever enough to outlast humans

Jeremiah Tolbert, NO DATE http://www.lightspeedmagazine.com/nonfiction/five-animals-that-will-take-over-the-earth-after-we-eradicate-ourselves/

Ravens and their hillbilly cousins, crows, have vexed us for centuries. Admittedly, any species that can be outsmarted by some straw shoved into size 42 coveralls and Grandpa’s flannel shirt has a long way to go to fill our shoes. However, their perseverance in the face of our advanced anti-scarecrow weaponry demonstrates the drive, ambition, and intelligence needed to climb to the top of the food chain.

Advantages:

Ravens and crows are documented tool users. In laboratory experiments, they’ve demonstrated the ability to bend wire in order to fish treats out of containers, and have been observed in the wild trimming leaves into shapes necessary to perform tasks. And by “shapes” we mean knives...

So, if today they’re trimming leaves and bending wires, it’s not a big leap to imagine that a thousand years after we’re dead, they’ll be re-discovering gunpowder for use in their bloody war with the pigeon tribes. And while they haven’t demonstrated the comprehensive vocabulary of, say, parrots, ravens can imitate a variety of sounds, including human speech.

We predict that “Die pigeon scum!” and other battle cries will likely be the primary use of this skill at first.

Disadvantages:

The lack of opposable thumbs is a downside. Not that this has prevented them from stealing the lunch of Yellowstone snowmobilers. And, being birds, their skeletons are fragile and easy to break.

They also seem to share our addiction to shiny objects, so within a few hundred generations, expect them to reinvent capitalism. Now, to some people, this talent could be considered an advantage. However, until we see how they regulate their derivatives markets, we’re marking this one down as a serious liability.

Most Likely Takeover Scenario:

Our attempts to cure a new, deadly strain of the West Nile Virus by tinkering with its genetic makeup result in an even more deadly version to which crows and ravens are immune. The disease spreads rapidly through the human population, and in 36 months, our rotting corpses will serve as a valuable source of nourishment for the ravens’ Hitchcockian midnight terror flocks.

13. Black Holes

Our galaxy is full of black holes, formed when giant stars collapse in on themselves, and whose gravity is so strong they swallow everything, even the light that may betray their presence.

In July this year scientists from Durham University discovered five

previously unidentified “supermassive” black holes, billions of times

the size of our sun, increasing fears one could come closer to earth

than previously anticipated.

George Lansbury, from the university’s Centre for Extragalactic Astronomy,

said: “Although we have only detected five, when we extrapolate across the

whole universe then the predicted numbers are huge.”

Such a black hole wouldn’t need to actually swallow us up. One

passing nearby could eject Earth from the solar system and send us

hurtling into deep space.

14. Yellowstone Supervolcano

There’s a supervolcano in Yellowstone that is overdue to erupt and

block out the sun

Roper, 2015 (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/science/end-world-coming-and-here-

6541155, Matt)

Volcanoes have form when it comes to making entire species extinct.

The Permo-Triassic Extinction – the biggest extinction event of all time,

when 95 per cent of all Earth’s species were wiped out 252 million

years ago – coincided with the largest known volcano eruption in

Earth history, in today’s Siberia.

Many believe the next Earth-changing eruption is long overdue, and

point to the supervolcano in American’s Yellowstone National Park

as the most likely to destroy us.

The Yellowstone volcano erupts with a near-clockwork cycle of every

600,000 years - and that last eruption was more than 640,000 years

ago. Scientists have discovered that the ground in Yellowstone is

74cm higher than it was in 1923, indicating a massive swelling

underneath the park.

Experts predict that when it blows its top again the consequences for

the world will be catastrophic. Within minutes of the explosion tens

of thousands would be dead and the long-term effects would be even

more devastating. The sun would be blocked by ash, temperatures

would plummet by 21 degrees, rain would turn to acid, and most if

not all of the world’s humans would be wiped out.

15. Magnetic Reversal of North and South Poles

The Earth’s magnetic field will flip the North and South Poles, destroying the ozone layer that protects our planet from outer space destroying it

Roper, 2015 (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/science/end-world-coming-and-here-

6541155, Matt)

Every few hundred thousand years the planet’s magnetic field

dwindles to almost nothing, then over a century gradually reappears

with the north and south poles flipped.

We know that there have been about 170 magnetic pole reversals

during the last 100 million years, and the last major reversal was

781,000 years ago - meaning that the next one is well overdue.

New research published last year from the European Space Agency

(ESA) shows that the Earth’s magnetic field is weakening 10 times

faster than we previously thought, and that it might flip within the

next 100 years.

Why might such an event threaten our survival? The magnetic field

deflects particle storms and cosmic rays from the sun, as well as

even more energetic particles from deep space.

Scientist claims that without this magnetic protection, these

particles would strike Earth’s atmosphere, eroding the ozone layer

with a number of disastrous consequences to life as we know it.

16. Double Starburst

Stars colliding together in outer space would cook our planet in ten

seconds with no warning

Roper, 2015 (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/science/end-world-coming-and-here-

6541155, Matt)

Gamma-ray bursts are flashes of gamma-ray light, probably caused

by the merging of two collapsed stars, and are the most powerful

explosions of energy in the universe - as much as ten quadrillion

times as energetic as the sun.

So far, the bursts - which are detected from earth about once a day -

have happened in distant galaxies millions of light-years away. If

such an event were to happen closer to home, the intense flash of

gamma rays illuminating the earth for ten seconds would cook the

atmosphere and destroy the ozone layer, causing a massive

extinction event.

Astronomers point out double stars are almost completely

undetectable and we would have no advance warning until the

moment it hits us.

Bioterror Bioweapons will cause HUMAN EXTINCTION OCHS ’02 [Richard Ma, Natural Resource Management – Rutgers Univ. Naturalist at Grand Teton National Park, June 9th, “Biological Weapons must be abolished immediately,” http://www.freefromterror.net/other_articles/abolish.html]) Of all the weapons of mass destruction, the genetically engineered biological weapons, many without a known cure or vaccine, are an extreme danger to the continued survival of life on earth. Any perceived military value or deterrence pales in comparison to the great risk these weapons pose just sitting in vials in laboratories. While a "nuclear winter," resulting from a massive exchange of nuclear weapons, could also kill off most of life on earth and severely compromise the health of future generations, they are easier to control. Biological weapons, on the other hand, can get out of control very easily, as the recent anthrax attacks has demonstrated. There is no way to guarantee the security of these doomsday weapons because very tiny amounts can be stolen or accidentally released and then grow or be grown to horrendous proportions. The Black Death of the Middle Ages would be small in comparison to the potential damage bioweapons could cause. Abolition of chemical weapons is less of a priority because, while they can also kill millions of people outright, their persistence in the environment would be less than nuclear or biological agents or more localized. Hence, chemical weapons would have a lesser effect on future generations of innocent people and the natural environment. Like the Holocaust, once a localized chemical extermination is over, it is over. With nuclear and biological weapons, the killing will probably never end. Radioactive elements last tens of thousands of years and will keep causing cancers virtually forever. Potentially worse than that, bio-engineered agents by the hundreds with no known cure could wreck even greater calamity on the human race than could persistent radiation. AIDS and ebola viruses are just a small example of recently emerging plagues with no known cure or vaccine. Can we imagine hundreds of such plagues? HUMAN EXTINCTION IS NOW POSSIBLE. Ironically, the Bush administration has just changed the U.S. nuclear doctrine to allow nuclear retaliation against threats upon allies by conventional weapons. The past doctrine allowed such use only as a last resort when our nation’s survival was at stake. Will the new policy also allow easier use of US bioweapons? How slippery is this slope? Against this tendency can be posed a rational alternative policy. To preclude possibilities of human extinction, "patriotism" needs to be redefined to make humanity’s survival primary and absolute. Even if we lose our cherished freedom, our sovereignty, our government or our Constitution, where there is life, there is hope. What good is anything else if humanity is extinguished? This concept should be promoted to the center of national debate.. For example, for sake of argument, suppose the ancient Israelites developed defensive bioweapons of mass destruction when they were enslaved by Egypt. Then suppose these weapons were released by design or accident and wiped everybody out? As bad as slavery is, extinction is worse. Our generation, our century, our epoch needs to take the long view. We truly hold in

our hands the precious gift of all future life. Empires may come and go, but who are the honored custodians of life on earth? Temporal politicians? Corporate competitors? Strategic brinksmen? Military gamers? Inflated egos dripping with testosterone? How can any sane person believe that national sovereignty is more important than survival of the species? Now that extinction is possible, our slogan should be "Where there is life, there is hope." No government, no economic system, no national pride, no religion, no political system can be placed above human survival. The egos of leaders must not blind us. The adrenaline and vengeance of a fight must not blind us. The game is over. If patriotism would extinguish humanity, then patriotism is the highest of all crimes.

Economic Collapse Continued economic crises will result in global warMead -09 (Walter Russell Mead, Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. The New Republic, “Only Makes You Stronger,” February 4 2009. http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2 AD 6/30/09)

So far, such half-hearted experiments not only have failed to work; they have left the societies that have tried them in a progressively worse position, farther behind the front-runners as time goes by. Argentina has lost ground to Chile; Russian development has fallen farther behind that of the Baltic states and Central Europe. Frequently, the crisis has weakened the power of the merchants, industrialists, financiers, and professionals who want to develop a liberal capitalist society integrated into the world. Crisis can also strengthen the hand of religious extremists, populist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determined to resist liberal capitalist society for a variety of reasons. Meanwhile, the companies and banks based in these societies are often less established and more vulnerable to the consequences of a financial crisis than more established firms in wealthier societies. As a result, developing countries and countries where capitalism has relatively recent and shallow roots tend to suffer greater economic and political damage when crisis strikes--as, inevitably, it does. And, consequently, financial crises often reinforce rather than challenge the global distribution of power and wealth. This may be happening yet again. None of which means that we can just sit back and enjoy the recession. History may suggest that financial crises actually help capitalist great powers maintain their leads--but it has other, less reassuring messages as well. If financial crises have been a normal part of life during the 300-year rise of the liberal capitalist system under the Anglophone powers, so has war. The wars of the League of Augsburg and the Spanish Succession; the Seven Years War; the American Revolution; the Napoleonic Wars; the two World Wars; the cold war: The list of wars is almost as long as the list of financial crises. Bad economic times can breed wars. Europe was a pretty peaceful place in 1928, but the Depression poisoned German public opinion and helped bring Adolf Hitler to power. If the current crisis turns into a depression, what rough beasts might start slouching toward Moscow, Karachi, Beijing, or New Delhi to be born? The United States may not, yet, decline, but, if we can't get the world economy back on track, we may still have to fight.

Middle-East War Mid-East war leads to extinction

John Steinbach, DC Iraq Coalition, March 2002 [israli Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Threat to Peace http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles!STE2O3A.htmlj Meanwhile,.the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations, and even the threat of nuclear war. Seymour Hersh warns, “Should war break out in the Middle East again or should any Arab.nation fire missiles against Israel, as the Iraqis did, a nuclear escalation, once unthinkable except as a last resort would now be a strong probability. ”(41) and Ezar Weissman, Israel’s current President said “The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. (42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(ifnot.the major) target of Israeli nukes. It is widely reported that .the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard’s spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U.S. nuclear targeting strategy. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988, Israel no longer needs U S. spy secrets.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and, at the very least, the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use if not for all out nuclear war. In the words of Mark Gaffney, “... if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.S. complicity) is not reversed, soon- for whatever reason- the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration.” (44)

Ozone

Ozone Depletion causes Extinction

Sandler 2004 (Todd; Robert R. and Katheryn A. Dockson Professor of International Relations and Economics – University of Southern California) Global Collective Action p. 214 WBW

The ozone layer stretches from ten to twenty-five miles overhead and if concentrated would be a mere three millimeters thick (de Gruijl, 1995). Despite its small concentration in the earth’s atmosphere, representing less than one part per million, ozone absorbs much of the ultraviolet-B radiation of the sun and, thus, shields all living organisms from some of its detrimental effects. A significantly thinned ozone layer presents some grave dangers from the mass extinction of species, disruption of the food chain, inducement of skin cancers, impairment of the immune system, and increased incidence of cataracts. For example, food supplies can be adversely affected through reduced phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain.

Poverty Poverty constitutes and ongoing thermonuclear genocide against the poor that outweighs the damage of nuclear war and gives rise to conflict internationallyGilligan 1997

James Gilligan, 1997, Director of the Center for the Study of Violence – Harvard Medical School, Violence: Reflections on a National Epidemic p. 195-6

The 14 to 18 million deaths a year caused by structural violence compare with about 100,000 deaths per year from armed conflict. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural violence to the frequency of those caused by major military and political violence, such as World War II (an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths, including those caused by genocide – or about eight million per year, 1939-1945), the Indonesian massacre of 1965-66 (perhaps 575,000 deaths), the Vietnam war (possibly two million, 1954-1973), and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. (232 million), it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural violence, which continues year after year. In other words, every fifteen years, on the average, as many people die because of relative poverty as would be killed in a nuclear war that caused 232 million deaths; and every single year, two to three times as many people die from poverty throughout the world as were killed by the Nazi genocide of the Jews over a six-year period. This is, in effect, the equivalent of an ongoing, unending, in fact accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide, perpetrated on the weak and poor every year of every decade, throughout the world. Structural violence is also the main cause of behavioral violence on a socially and epidemiologically significant scale (from homicide and suicide to war and genocide). The question as to which of the two forms of violence – structural or behavioral – is more important, dangerous, or lethal is moot, for they are inextricably related to each other, as cause to effect.

Democracy Democracy Prevents Nuclear WarMuravchik 2001 (Joshua; Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute) “Democracy and Nuclear Peace” July 11-14 www.npec-web.org/syllabi/muravchik.htm WBW

The greatest impetus for world peace -- and perforce of nuclear peace -- is the spread of democracy. In a famous article, and subsequent book, Francis Fukuyama argued that democracy's extension was leading to "the end of history." By this he meant the conclusion of man's quest for the right social order, but he also meant the "diminution of the likelihood of large-scale conflict between states." (1) Fukuyama's phrase was intentionally provocative, even tongue-in-cheek, but he was pointing to two down-to-earth historical observations: that democracies are more peaceful than other kinds of government and that the world is growing more democratic. Neither point has gone unchallenged. Only a few decades ago, as distinguished an observer of international relations as George Kennan made a claim quite contrary to the first of these assertions. Democracies, he said, were slow to anger, but once aroused "a democracy . . . . fights in anger . . . . to the bitter end." (2) Kennan's view was strongly influenced by the policy of "unconditional surrender" pursued in World War II. But subsequent experience, such as the negotiated settlements America sought in Korea and Vietnam proved him wrong. Democracies are not only slow to anger but also quick to compromise. And to forgive. Notwithstanding the insistence on unconditional surrender, America

treated Japan and that part of Germany that it occupied with extraordinary generosity. In recent years a burgeoning literature has discussed the peacefulness of democracies. Indeed the proposition that democracies do not go to war with one another has been described by one political scientist as being "as close as anything we have to an empirical law in international relations." (3) Some of those who find enthusiasm for democracy off-putting have challenged this proposition, but their challenges have only served as empirical tests that have confirmed its robustness. For example, the academic Paul Gottfried and the columnist-turned-politician Patrick J. Buchanan have both instanced democratic England's declaration of war against democratic Finland during World War II. (4) In fact, after much procrastination, England did accede to the pressure of its Soviet ally to declare war against Finland which was allied with Germany. But the declaration was

purely formal: no fighting ensued between England and Finland. Surely this is an exception that proves the rule.

India-Pakistan War Indo-Pak war kills hundreds of millions – jacks the ozone and kills cropsAlexis Madrigal, Energy Science Tech and Journalist, 4-7-2008, Wired, “Regional Nuclear War Would Cause Worldwide Destruction,” http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/04/regional-nuclea.html

Imagine that the long-simmering conflict between India and Pakistan broke out into a war in which each side deployed 50 nuclear weapons against the other country's megacities. Karachi, Bombay, and dozens of other South Asian cities catch fire like Hiroshima and Nagasaki did at the end of World War II. Beyond the local human tragedy of such a situation, a new study looking at the atmospheric chemistry of regional nuclear war finds that the hot smoke from burning cities would tear holes in the ozone layer of the Earth. The increased UV radiation resulting from the ozone loss could more than double DNA damage, and increase cancer rates across North America and Eurasia. "Our research supports that there would be worldwide destruction," said Michael Mills, co-author of the study and a research scientist at the University of Colorado at Boulder. "It demonstrates that a small-scale regional conflict is capable of triggering larger ozone losses globally than the ones that were previously predicted for a full-scale nuclear war." Combined with the climatic impact of a regional nuclear war -- which could reduce crop yields and starve hundreds of millions -- Mills' modeling shows that the entire globe would feel the repercussions of a hundred nuclear detonations, a small fraction of just the U.S. stockpile. After decades of Cold War research into the impacts that a full-blown war between the Soviet Union and the United States would have had on the globe, recent work has focused on regional nuclear wars, which are seen as more likely than all-out nuclear Armageddon. Incorporating the latest atmospheric modeling, the scientists are finding that even a small nuclear conflict would wreak havoc on the global environment (.pdf) -- cooling it twice as much as it's heated over the last century -- and on the structure of the atmosphere itself.

Terrorism

Terrorism will go nuclear – it makes genocides, wars, oppression, and governmental domination inevitable – the result is the end of the WORLD.

SID – AHMED 04

Political Analyst [Mohamed, http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm]

A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical than Hiroshima and Nagazaki, even if -- and this is far from certain – the weapons used are less harmful than those used then , Japan, at the time, with no knowledge of nuclear

technology, had no choice but to capitulate. Today, the technology is a secret for nobody. So far, except for the two bombs dropped on

Japan, nuclear weapons have been used only to threaten. Now we are at a stage where they can be detonated. This completely changes the rules of the game. We have reached a point where anticipatory measures can determine the course of events. Allegations of a terrorist connection can be used to justify anticipatory measures, including the invasion of a sovereign state like Iraq. As it

turned out, these allegations, as well as the allegation that Saddam was harbouring WMD, proved to be unfounded. What would be the consequences of a nuclear attack by terrorists? Even if it fails, it would further exacerbate the negative features of the new and

frightening world in which we are now living. Societies would close in on themselves, police measures would be stepped up at the expense of human rights, tensions between civilisations and religions would rise and ethnic conflicts would proliferate. It would also speed up the arms race and develop the awareness that a different type of world order is imperative if humankind is to survive. But the still more critical scenario is if the attack succeeds. This could lead to a third world war, from which no one will emerge victorious. Unlike a conventional

war which ends when one side triumphs over another, this war will be without winners and losers. When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.

BiodiversityLoss of biodiversity will lead to extinction – global ecosystems are reliant on each other Bruce E. Tonn, Urban Planning Prof @ Tennessee, November 2007, Futures v. 39, no. 9, “Futures Sustainability”, ln

The first principle is the most important because earth-life is needed to support earth-life. Ecosystems are composed of countless species that are mutually dependent upon each other for nutrients directly as food or as by-products of earth-life (e.g., as carbon dioxide and oxygen). If the biodiversity of an ecosystem is substantially compromised, then the entire system could collapse due to destructive negative nutrient cycle feedback effects. If enough ecosystems collapse worldwide, then the cascading impact on global nutrient cycles could lead to catastrophic species extinction. Thus, to ensure the survival of earth-life into the distant future the earth's biodiversity must be protected.

HegemonyLoss of hegemony causes nuclear holocausts.Foster -09 (March 16, 2009, John Bellamy Foster, A Failed System: The World Crisis of Capitalist Globalization and its Impact on China, International Debt Observatory, http://www.oid-ido.org/article.php3?id_article=808) There is no doubt that the national security apparatus in the United States, in this period, sees China, as the great Marxist philosopher István Mészáros has said, as its “ultimate target.”51 This has been most evident in the last few years in: (1) report after report by the U.S. national security establishment warning of China’s growing influence in Africa and access to African petroleum reserves, control of which are seen as vital to U.S. “national security”; (2) continual fears within the U.S. intelligence community of a Chinese-Iranian or Chinese-Russian-Iranian alliance; (3) U.S. efforts to form a military pact with India; (4) concerns raised about Chinese advances in space; and (5) conflict regarding Tibet, Taiwan, North Korea, and the China Sea. Although the United States is economically bound to China at present through the production of multinational corporations and intensive trade and currency exchanges-so much so that the two economies appear to be in a kind of symbiotic embrace-increased geopolitical rivalry associated with declining U.S. hegemony and the rise of China as a world power create the possibility of a more explosive relationship arising. At present there are very palpable fears in Washington’s higher circles regarding the continuing-and from their perspective necessary and non-negotiable-role of the dollar as trade settlement and reserve currency, even in the face of current Chinese support for the dollar system. Washington understands that China’s blind support for the dollar is problematic, especially in the event of a rapid devaluation of all existing dollar obligations resulting from Federal Reserve policy. China holds $652 billion in U.S. Treasury debt (an increase from $459 billion at the end of 2007). Altogether it owns 10 percent of the U.S. public debt. A rapid devaluation of the dollar would only be seen in China as an expropriation. An ensuing movement of China away from the dollar, however limited-and none but limited moves are immediately possible-could drastically destabilize the entire U.S. dominated world economic order.52 At the same time as Washington is concerned about the increased potential threat to its hegemony posed by the rise of China, it is also striving to contain or weaken other states as well, such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. There is no doubt that the economic and ecological crises, to the extent that they worsen, will tend to destabilize the system, intensifying these and other imperial tensions. Classic geopolitical theory suggests that only by containing the rimlands of Eurasia can a single power control the globe. U.S. strategy at present centers on the Middle East, as the strategic petroleum underbelly of Eurasia. But its primary goal is to defend and even expand its own weakening global ascendancy vis-á-vis potential economic and military rivals. With the spread of weapons of mass destruction-which U.S. attempts at consolidating global military and economic dominance actually encourage-it is not difficult to imagine a situation in which matters will get out of control. The terror of a global holocaust emerging from such economic, ecological, and geopolitical instability-threatened in the first instance by the refusal of the United States and its Israeli ally to accept the failure of their policies in the Middle East and the related mismanagement of world energy resources-is a danger that cannot be ignored. This grim reality marks the failed peace-Pox Americana rather than Pax Americana-of a failed system.53 As the foregoing indicates, the world is currently facing the threat of a new world deflation-depression, worse than anything seen since the 1930s. The ecological problem has reached a level that the entire planet as we know it is now threatened. Neoliberal capitalism appears to be at an end, along with what some have called “neoliberalism ‘with Chinese characteristics.’”54 Declining U.S. hegemony, coupled with current U.S. attempts militarily to restore its global hegemony through the so-called War on Terror, threaten wider wars and nuclear holocausts. The one common denominator accounting for all of these crises is the current phase of global monopoly-finance capital. The fault lines are most obvious in terms of the peril to the planet. As Evo Morales, president of Bolivia, has recently stated: “Under capitalism we are not human beings but consumers. Under capitalism mother earth does not exist, instead there are raw materials.” In reality, “the earth is much more important than [the] stock exchanges of Wall Street and the world. [Yet,] while the United States and the European Union allocate 4,100 billion dollars to save the bankers from a financial crisis that they themselves have caused, programs on climate change get 313 times less, that is to say, only 13 billion dollars.”55

FreedomIndividual liberty is paramount – every intrusion must be resistedPetro – Professor of Law at Wake Forest University – 1974 (Sylvester, University of Toledo Law Review, Spring, p.480)

However, one may still insist, echoing Ernest Hemingway – “I believe in only one thing: liberty.” And it is always well to bear in mind David Hume’s observation: “It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once.” Thus, it is unacceptable to say that the invasion of one aspect of freedom is of no import because there have been invasions of so many other aspects. That road leads to chaos, tyranny, despotism, and the end of all human aspiration. Ask Solzhenitsyn. Ask Milovan Djilas. In sum, if one believes in freedom as a supreme value and the proper ordering principle for any society aiming to maximize spiritual and material welfare, then every invasion of freedom must be emphatically identified and resisted with undying spirit.

Russian Economic Collapse

Russian Economic Collapse Risks Global Nuclear War

David 1999 (Steven R.; Professor of Political Science – Johns Hopkins) Foreign Affairs Jan/Feb l/n wbw

If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause. From 1989 to the present, the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. In a society where, ten years ago, unemployment scarcely existed, it reached 9.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. Twenty-two percent of Russians live below the official poverty line (earning less than $ 70 a month). Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. Reformers tout privatization as the country's cure-all, but in a land without well-defined property rights or contract law and where subsidies remain a way of life, the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look remote at

best. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political crisis show, Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. If conditions get worse, even the stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience. A future conflict would quickly draw in Russia's military. In the Soviet days civilian rule kept the powerful armed forces in check. But with the Communist Party out of office, what little civilian control remains relies on an exceedingly fragile foundation -- personal friendships between government leaders and military commanders. Meanwhile, the morale of Russian soldiers has fallen to a dangerous low. Drastic cuts in spending mean inadequate pay, housing, and medical care. A new emphasis on domestic missions has created an ideological split between the old and new guard in the military leadership, increasing the risk that disgruntled generals may enter the political fray and feeding the resentment of soldiers who dislike being used as a national police force. Newly enhanced ties between military units and local authorities pose another danger. Soldiers grow ever more dependent on local governments for housing, food, and wages. Draftees serve closer to home, and new laws have increased local control over the armed forces. Were a conflict to

emerge between a regional power and Moscow, it is not at all clear which side the military would support. Divining the military's allegiance is crucial, however, since the structure of the Russian Federation makes it virtually certain that regional conflicts will continue to erupt. Russia's 89 republics, krais, and oblasts grow ever more independent in a system that does little to keep them together. As the central government finds itself unable to force its will beyond Moscow (if even that far), power devolves to the periphery. With the economy collapsing, republics feel less and less incentive to pay taxes to Moscow when they receive so little in return. Three-quarters of them already have their own

constitutions, nearly all of which make some claim to sovereignty. Strong ethnic bonds promoted by shortsighted Soviet policies may motivate non-Russians to secede from the Federation. Chechnya's successful revolt against Russian control inspired similar movements for autonomy and independence throughout the country. If these rebellions spread and Moscow responds with force, civil war is likely. Should Russia succumb to internal war, the consequences for the United States and Europe will be severe. A major power like Russia -- even though in decline -- does not suffer civil war quietly or alone. An embattled Russian Federation might provoke opportunistic attacks from enemies such as China. Massive flows of refugees would pour into central and western Europe. Armed struggles in Russia could easily spill into its neighbors. Damage from the fighting, particularly attacks on nuclear plants, would poison the environment of much of Europe and Asia. Within Russia, the consequences would be even worse. Just as the sheer brutality of the last Russian civil war laid the basis for the privations of Soviet communism, a second civil war might produce another horrific regime. Most alarming is the real possibility that the violent disintegration of Russia could lead to loss of control over its nuclear arsenal. No nuclear state has ever fallen victim to civil war, but even without a clear precedent the grim consequences can be foreseen. Russia retains some

20,000 nuclear weapons and the raw material for tens of thousands more, in scores of sites scattered throughout the country . So far, the government has managed to prevent the loss of any weapons or much material. If war erupts, however, Moscow's already weak grip on nuclear sites will slacken, making weapons and supplies available to a wide range of anti-American groups and states. Such dispersal of nuclear weapons represents the greatest physical threat America now faces. And it is hard to think of anything that would increase this threat more than the chaos that would follow a Russian civil war.

Taiwan War War in Asia engulfs the planet in nuclear ArmageddonStrait Times 6 / 26 / 00

THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO

THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -horror of horrors -raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. If China were to retaliate, East Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, Russia may seek to redefine Europe's political landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway, commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability, there is little hope of winning a war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation. There would be no victors in such a war. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts sovereignty above everything else. Gen Ridgeway recalled that the biggest mistake the US made during the Korean War was to assess Chinese actions according to the American way of thinking. "Just when everyone believed that no sensible commander would march south of the Yalu, the Chinese troops suddenly appeared," he recalled. (The Yalu is the river which borders China and North Korea, and the crossing of the river marked China's entry into the war against the Americans). "I feel uneasy if now somebody were to tell me that they bet China would not do this or that," he said in a recent interview given to the Chinese press. THE COST OF WAR The damage inflicted by a China-Taiwan clash depends on the intensity of the conflict: A TAIWAN BLOCKADE * Aim is to force Taiwan to the negotiating table * Minimal loss of life and property * Damage likely limited to Taiwan and China economies * Japan may suffer disruption of trade routes * Others -Southeast Asian neighbours and US defence industry -may gain from fallout CHINA-TAIWAN WAR * Aim is to destroy Taiwan's fighting ability * Death and destruction expected on Taiwan island and in China's coastal provinces * US to offer military backing but will not engage in full-scale war with China * Arms race in region and rise of Sino-phobia US-CHINA WAR * Conflict over Taiwan escalates to full-fledged Sino-US war * Countries providing bases and support for US in region face retaliation by China * Current world order under threat as other states push their interests unhindered by a distracted US * Possibility of a nuclear war

Diseases Terminal impact is extinction

Steinbruner 98,

Senior Fellow @ Brookings Institution

[John D., “Biological weapons: A plague upon all houses.” Foreign Policy Winter 97/98 Issue 109, p85, 12p//EBSCOhost]

It is a considerable comfort and undoubtedly a key to our survival that, so far, the main lines of defense against this threat have not depended on explicit policies or organized efforts. In the long course of evolution, the human body has developed physical barriers and a biochemical immune system whose sophistication and effectiveness exceed anything we could design or as yet even fully understand. But evolution is a sword that cuts both ways: New diseases emerge, while old diseases mutate and adapt. Throughout history, there have been epidemics during which human immunity has broken down on an epic scale. An infectious agent believed to have been the plague bacterium killed an estimated 20 million people over a four-year period in the fourteenth century, including nearly one-quarter of Western Europe's population at the time. Since its recognized appearance in 1981, some 20 variations of the HIVvirus have infected an estimated 29.4 million worldwide, with 1.5 million people currently dying of aids each year. Malaria, tuberculosis, and cholera-once thought to be under control-are now making a comeback. As we enter the twenty-first century, changing conditions have enhanced the potential for widespread contagion. The rapid growth rate of the total world population, the unprecedented freedom of movement across international borders, and scientific advances that expand the capability for the deliberate manipulation of pathogens are all cause for worry that the problem might be greater in the future than it has ever been in the past. The threat of infectious pathogens is not just an issue of public health, but a fundamental security problem for the species as a whole.

ProliferationProliferation causes extinction.Taylor -02 [Stuart Taylor, Senior Writer with the National Journal and editor at Newsweek, Legal Times, 9-16-2002]

The truth is, no matter what we do about Iraq, if we don't stop proliferation, another five or 10 potentially unstable nations may go nuclear before long, making it ever more likely that one or more bombs will be set off anonymously on our soil by terrorists or a terrorist government. Even an airtight missile defense would be useless against a nuke hidden in a truck, a shipping container, or a boat. [Continues…] Unless we get serious about stopping proliferation, we are headed for "a world filled with nuclear-weapons states, where every crisis threatens to go nuclear," where "the survival of civilization truly is in question from day to day," and where "it would be impossible to keep these weapons out of the hands of terrorists, religious cults, and criminal organizations." So writes Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr., a moderate Republican who served as a career arms-controller under six presidents and led the successful Clinton administration effort to extend the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The only way to avoid such a grim future, he suggests in his memoir, Disarmament Sketches, is for the United States to lead an international coalition against proliferation by showing an unprecedented willingness to give up the vast majority of our own nuclear weapons, excepting only those necessary to deter nuclear attack by others.

US-Russia Warthe only scenario for extinction and is comparatively worse than regional nuclear conflictsNick Bostrom, Phd and faculty of Philosophy @ Oxford University. “Existential Risks Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards” Journal of Evolution and Technology 2002 www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. An all-out nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that might have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. There was a real worry among those best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization.[4] Russia and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation, either accidentally or deliberately. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. Note however that a smaller nuclear exchange, between India and Pakistan for instance, is not an existential risk, since it would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently. Such a war might however be a local terminal risk for the cities most likely to be targeted.

Semis/Finals Impacts

WhalesWhales are a keystone species —oxygen and plankton disruption.Barstow 1989 (Robbins, PhD, Exec Dir – Cetasean Society International, The Magazine of the Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society, No. 2, Autumn, http://www.highnorth.no/Library/Movements/General/be-wh-s2.htm)

My own rationale for asking the IWC to decide to adopt a management regime of permanent protection for whales from consumptive commercial exploitation on a global basis is both simple and complex. It is grounded i pragmatic practicalities of both fact and feeling regarding 'Whales in a Modern World'. I am not here arguing for the sanctity of all life on earth. I am not advocating equal rights for all animal species. I am seeking to set forth a rational and moral basis for a future determination by one, specialised, international, human agency that one order of marine mammals should be managed in this manner. Why whales? My rationale most simply is that whales are uniquely special! They really are in a class by themselves. Let me cite four major categories of uniqueness. First, whales are biologically special. Whales include by far the largest animals on earth, growing to be over 30 metres in length – the blue whale (Balenoptera musculus). Whales include the possessors of by far the largest brain of any creature ever to have lived on our planet, weighing four or five times as much as the human brain – the sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus). Whales include the creators of the most complex, long – lasting, repetitive sound patterns of any non – human animal – the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae). And whales include species (Tursiops truncatus and some other odontocetes) which exceed humans and all other groups as well in convolutedness or fissurisation of the cerebral cortex. Marine mammal veterinarian Sam Ridgway, of the U.S. Naval Ocean Systems Centre in San Diego, has reported findings that the bottlenose dolphin, in particular, by a variety of measurements (encephalisation quotient, volume of cortex, ratio of brain weight to spinal cord weight, etc.) ranks just below humans and considerably above other higher primates, including gorillas, chimpanzees, and orangutans. In all these

ways whales are truly unique biologically! Second, whales are ecologically special. Whales have evolved as marine mammals over millions of years, with both baleen and

toothed whales probably appearing up to 25 million years ago, long before the development of human beings and the latter's intrusion in the ocean ecosystem. Whales are at the top of the vast food chain of the sea. Baleen whales consume the largest amount of zooplankton, and the killer whale (Orcinus orca) is the world's greatest non- human predator. Whales affect the ocean ecosystem in a uniquely global manner , and any exploitation of other marine resources, whether krill or fish, must uniquely take into account cetaceans . Human life depends upon a proper balance in the amount of oxygen inn earth's atmosphere produced from the plankton that is kept in check most critically by whale consumption .

Math Math prevents extinction.D’Ambrosio 2001 (Ubiratan, Emeritus Prof. Math @ State U. Campinas in Brazil, Leonardo, “Mathematics and Peace: A Reflection on the Basis of Western Civilization”, 34:4, p. 327-332, Project Muse)

History shows that mathematics has been intimately associated with , indeed is intrinsic to, the arts, religions, technology, sciences, economics and politics of modern civilization. Every philosophical proposal since antiquity has strongly relied on a discussion of the nature of mathematics. As has been said so frequently, mathematics is the real basis of Western thought. This is an exploratory article that raises many issues, leaving most of them unanswered. It is an introduction to a large and ambitious program of looking into the history of mathematics as the real basis of civilizations and hence into the relations of mathematics with the

arts, religions, sciences, economics, politics, architecture and urban life. Hence with peace. To achieve peace is essential for the survival of civilization. We are a threatened species. When I refer to it, I am concerned with peace in its several dimensions: interior, social, environmental and, of course, diplomatic. Violations of peace, in all these dimensions, permeate the history of the world. I have a utopia: a world in peace! In the sense given it by Karl Mannheim, utopia is the will that guides our actions. Violations of peace, in all dimensions, are frequently shown in the media and dramatized in the arts. Recently, the Academy Awards denounced the violation of interior peace by granting an Oscar to American Beauty. Research institutions such as the Worldwatch Institute systematically denounce violations of social and environmental peace. Violations of diplomatic peace, that is, the insane practice of war, are a recurrent theme of artistic, religious and scientific discourses. The impact produced by Picasso's Guernica matches dramatic visualizations of the horror of wars in literature, music, photography and the plastic arts. The appeal of the exhibit Thermonuclear Gardens, installed by Sheila Pinkel in several cities from 1982-1992, is a good example of what is needed. Ecumenical meetings all over the world call for forgiveness and tolerance, love and harmony. And scientists have often led the call for an end to the insanity of war. Most poignant among these was the appeal by Albert Einstein and Bertrand Russell in the Pugwash Manifesto, 1955: "We appeal, as human beings, to human beings: remember your humanity, and forget the rest" [1]. Global Responsibility This article deals principally with the global responsibility of mathematicians and mathematics educators. The guiding question is "How do we fulfill, as mathematicians and mathematics educators, our commitments to humankind?" To be highly provocative, I invite readers to reflect on the fact that people who have attained a high level of cultural development, particularly excellence in mathematics, have performed the most despicable human behavior in recent times. Let me make it very clear that this is not an insinuation of an intrinsic malignity of mathematics. But it is clear that mathematics has been a companion in historical

events that we all now deplore. Let me make very clear that I see math ematics playing an important role in achieving the high humanitarian ideals of a new civilization, with equity, justice and dignity for the entire human species without distinction of race, gender, beliefs , creeds, nationalities and cultures . But this will depend on our understanding how deeply related are mathematics and human behavior. Mathematicians, historians of mathematics and mathematics educators rarely consider these questions. It is undeniable that mathematics is well integrated into the technological, industrial, military, economic and political systems of the present world. Indeed, mathematics has relied on these

systems for the material bases of its continuing progress. We may say that mathematics is intrinsic to today's culture. It is natural for us, as mathematicians and mathematics educators, to give some thought to the role of mathematics education in achieving a better social order and more dignifying quality of life. So, we are led to examine the history of mathematics as it relates to world history. In order to appreciate the real significance and importance of mathematics in different cultures and in different times, it has to be viewed through what might be termed a "cultural lens." I hope that this approach will illuminate many areas of mathematical thought and indicate new directions for research. As a result, we may better understand the implications of mathematical research and determine pedagogical methodologies for the achievement of peace in its several dimensions. This is essential for developing a civilization that rejects inequity, arrogance and bigotry, which are essentially violations of peace understood in its several dimensions. [End Page 327] The Prevailing Attitude It is not sufficient to say, as is common in our profession--indeed, in every profession--that one can work for peace "by doing good mathematics" or "by being a good mathematics teacher." Our commitment and responsibility go much beyond that. We might ask, "What is done with the mathematics we develop?" and "How will our students perform in their professions, that by and large have nowadays a strong mathematical component?" Our responsibilities include the uses society makes of our intellectual production and the influence we have in the behavior of our students. It is naïve to say that the intellectual production of mathematics and the competences resulting from our teaching are not

related to the behavior of people. The threat of another world war is rea l . I do not think we have to accept that it is normal to solve regional conflicts by military means. Although isolated, the violence and violation of human dignity going on in these conflicts are abhorrent.

Besides, history has shown us that there is a high possibility of a larger involvement of nations and that the escalation of these regional conflicts may result in World War III. The possibility of the final extinction of civilization on Earth is real . We are now witnessing an environmental crisis, mounting social crises in just about every country and above all the recurring threat of war. There is also an alarming lack of internal peace for individuals, leading to drugs, violence and nihilism. In correspondence with Albert Einstein, Sigmund Freud said, "These two factors--man's cultural disposition and well-founded fear of the form that future wars will take--may serve to put an end to war . . . but by what ways or byways

this will come about, we cannot guess." We all, particularly mathematicians, have a responsibility in finding these ways. As was said above, and I repeat, mathematics is well integrated into the technological, industrial, military, economic and political systems, and mathematics has relied on these systems for the material bases of its continuing progress. This refers not only to science and technology, but to philosophy as well, and hence to models of society. The problem is essentially political: There has been reluctance among mathematicians, and to a certain extent among scientists in general, to recognize the symbiotic development of mathematical ideas and models of society. Mathematics has grown parallel to the elaboration of what we call modern civilization. Historians amply recognize this. Particularly explicit on

this is Mary Lefkowitz when she claims, "the evolution of general mathematical theories from those basics [mathematics of Egyptians, Sumerians and others] is the real basis of Western thought" (italics mine) [2]. If, as mathematicians and mathematics educators, we try to answer the challenge of Sigmund Freud, it is natural for us to reflect on our personal role in putting an end to and avoiding future wars. But it is equally important to question the role of mathematics and mathematics education in arriving at this mode of behavior.

BeesBees are key to the food supply. Colony collapse risks human extinction

Hutaff 07 (Matt Hutaff, “Give Bees a Chance,” The Simon, May 1, 2007, pg. http://www.thesimon.com/magazine/articles/canon_fodder/01375_give_bees_chance.html)

Rumor has it Albert Einstein once declared humanity could only outlive the bee by about four years . His reasoning was simple: "no more bees, no more pollination, no more plants, no more animals, no more man."Nothing like entomological doomsday scenarios from a classical physicist, right?Nonetheless, it looks like we're poised to find out if the godfather of relativity is right. Bees are disappearing at an alarming rate, particularly in the United States and Germany. And while it's normal for hive populations to fall during colder winter months, the recent exodus is puzzling beekeepers and researchers around the world. Are we witnessing the death throes of the human race firsthand? Will the bee go the way of the dodo? Not likely, but I'll tell you one thing – whatever's driving the collapse of the bee population, it's man-made."During the last three months of 2006, we began to receive reports from commercial beekeepers of an alarming number of honey bee colonies dying in the eastern United States," says Maryann Frazier, an apiarist with Penn State University. "Since the beginning of the year, beekeepers from all over the country have been reporting unprecedented losses," including one gentleman who's lost 800 of his 2,000 colonies in less than four months.Those losses are atypical. The usual causes of death, aside from climate, are varroa mites, hive beetles, and wax moths, which infest hives weakened by sickness and malnutrition. Annual casualties tend to hover in the 20th percentile, and beekeepers work with entomologists to protect their investments via antibiotics, miticides, and advanced pest management.Not so today. The current blight has spread across the country rapidly, leaving abandoned hives full of uneaten food and unhatched larvae. Natural predators brave enough to enter behave erratically, "acting in a way you normally don' t expect them to act," says beekeeper Julianne Wooten. And whereas naturally abandoned hives are infested by other insects within a short period of time, hives affected by what is tentatively labeled colony collapse disorder (CCD) are avoided.California and Texas have been hit particularly hard by the sudden disappearance of bees, but dozens of other states are reporting major losses as well. And when you consider

bees are big business as well as a critical part of the food chain, that vanishing act is no laughing matter. Consider: bees are essential for pollinating over 90 varieties of vegetables and fruits, including apples, avocados, blueberries, and cherries; pollination increases the yield and quality of crops by approximately $15 billion annually; and California's almond industry alone contributes $2 billion to the local economy, and depends on 1.4 million bees, which are brought in from all over the United States.

Bees stimulate the food supply as well as the economy. So what's the cause of colony collapse? Suspicions are pointed in several different directions, including cell phone transmissions and agricultural pesticides, some of which are known to be poisonous to bees. But if these two factors are responsible, why are the deaths not a global phenomenon? The bee collapse began in isolated pockets before progressing rapidly around the nation. If cell phones are to blame, shouldn't the effect have been simultaneous, and witnessed years ago? And if pesticides are strictly to blame, shouldn't beekeepers near major farm systems be able to track those pollutants and narrow the field of possible suspects?

Perhaps they have – and the culprit is bigger than we imagine. Several scientists have come forward with the startling claim that genetically modified food – you know, that blessing from above that would solve famine and put food in the belly of every undernourished, Third World child – is destroying bees. How could something so wondrous as pest-resistant corn kill millions upon millions of bees? Simple – by producing so much natural pesticide that bees are either driven mad or away.

Most genetically-modified seeds have a transplanted segment of DNA that creates a well-known bacterium, bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), in its cells. Normally Bt is not a problem – it's a naturally-occurring pesticide that's been used as a spray for years by farmers looking to control crop damage from butterflies. And it's effective at helping beekeepers keep bees alive, too – Bt is sprayed under hive lids to keep those pesky wax moths from attacking.

But "instead of the bacterial solution being sprayed on the plant, where it is eaten by the target insect, the genes that contain the insecticidal traits are incorporated into the genome of the farm crop," writes biologist and beekeeper John McDonald. "As the transformed plant grows, these Bt genes are replicated along with the plant genes so that each cell contains its own poison pill that kills the target insect.

"Canadian beekeepers have detected the disappearance of the wax moth in untreated hives, apparently a result of worker bees foraging in fields of transgenic canola plants. [And] the planting of transgenic corn and soybean has increased exponentially, according to statistics from farm states. Tens of millions of acres of transgenic crops are allowing Bt genes to move off crop fields."

McDonald's analysis stands up under scrutiny. A former agronomist has commented that the one trial of GM crops in the Netherlands quickly led to colony collapse within 100 kilometers of the fields, and it's reasonable to hypothesize nature's pollinators would bear an averse reaction to plants with poison coursing through every stem.

"The amount of Bt in these plants is enough to trigger allergies in some people, and irritate the skin and eyes of farmers who handle the crops," writes Patrick Wiebe. "In India, when sheep were used to clear a field of leftover Bt cotton, several sheep died after eating it." If it can kill a sheep, it can certainly kill a bee.

What can be done? Precious little if gene-modified plants are the genesis of colony collapse. "There is no way to keep genetically modified genes from escaping into the wild," says Mike Rivero. "Wild varieties of corn in Mexico have been found to contain artificial genes carried by the wind and bees. Indeed it is probable that the gene that makes the plant cells manufacture a pesticide has already escaped, which means this problem will only spread.

"This is far more dangerous than a toxic spill, which confines itself to the original spill and the downwind/downstream plumes. A mistake in a gene, once allowed into the wild, can spread across the entire planet."Genetically-modified food is produced by companies such as Monsanto (how many of its scientists do you think drive a hybrid?). Despite a number of tests, the food created by these gene-spliced crops are considered a failure. It consistently makes animals ill, increases liver toxicity, and damages kidneys. What's the incentive to grow this food? What's the incentive to eat it?In our dash to trademark the very building blocks of our food supply, companies experimenting with "upgrading" crops may have irreparably damaged one of nature's most important contributors. Instead of approaching famine from a balanced perspective, corporations have patented the right to subsist. If Einstein's

lesser-known theory is right, they have unwittingly become Shiva, the destroyer of worlds .

Nuclear Waste

Yucca threatens global sterility and biosphere contamination—even marginal risks are unacceptable.Comarow 2001 (David Comarow, JD, Testimony presented at US Department of Energy Public Hearing 12-8-2001 http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/nuclear-energy/issues/yucca- mountain/yucca-mountain-testimony-comarow_2001-12-08.htm)

None of that is impossible, and therefore none of that is unthinkable. We are not talking about the short-term or even long-term economic prosperity of Las Vegas. We are talking about nothing less than the survival of the human race. Lest you dismiss this as just more fanatic hyperbole, let this be a reality check: Yucca Mountain will hold all of the high level nuclear waste ever produced from every nuclear power plant in the US – with about 10% additional defense waste -- some 77,000 tons. The danger of getting it here aside for a moment, the amount of radioactivity and energy to be stored in one place, under that relatively tiny little bump in the desert is easily enough to contaminate and sterilize the entire biosphere. Is that unthinkable? No. If it is possible, it is thinkable. When you are talking about these types of risks, risks that can endanger entire segments of our population, let alone the entire earth, then the risk analysis must go into higher gear. It is not enough to merely calculate the risks as "extremely low"- because there is no "low enough" when the consequences are so cataclysmic. We accept certain risks, which are relatively high – 50,000 traffic deaths per year for example. But, as terrible as those deaths and injuries are, they do not imperil our culture, our nation or the survival of the human race. We are less willing to accept such risks when the consequences happen all at once -- plane crashes for example. That is our human nature. We are willing to spend much more to lower the risk of death in groups than chronic deaths spread out over time and space. As a people, as caretakers for future people, we cannot create unnecessary catastrophic risks like biosphereicide, the agonizing death of billions.