“Hot” Topics in Coastal Climate Change Science

American Sail Training AssociationNov. 15, 2010

Austin BeckerPhD Candidate

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Report: Global Warming Issue From 2 Or 3Years Ago May Still Be ProblemNOVEMBER 10, 2010 | ISSUE 46•45

WASHINGTON—According to a report released this week by the Center for GlobalDevelopment, climate change, the popular mid-2000s issue that raised awareness of thefact that the earth's continuous rise in temperature will have catastrophic ecological effects,has apparently not been resolved, and may still be a problem.

While several years have passed sinceglobal warming was considered the mostpressing issue facing mankind, recentstudies from the Center for AtmosphericResearch, the National Academy ofSciences, NASA, the Pew Center onGlobal Climate Change, and basicallyany scientific report available on theissue confirmed that it is not only stillhappening, but might also be worthstopping.

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Apple Unveils New Product-Unveiling Product03.06.07

Renowned Hoo-Ha DoctorWins Nobel Prize ForMedical Advancements

Enlarge Image

This 2007 chart predicting rising temperatures

This much we know…

Global climate change is…

• unequivocal,

• almost certainly caused mostly by us,

• already causing significant harm

• growing rapidly, and

• Requires ADAPTATION and MITIGATION strategies.

Warming is Unequivocal…

Data: Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999; Crowley and Lowery, 2000; Briffa et al., 2001; Esper et al., 2002 ; Mann and Jones, 2003; Jones and Mann, 2004; Huang, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005; Oerlemans, 2005

>40 different peer-reviewed studies affirm recent dramatic warming.

Tree ringsCoralsSedimentsSpeleothemsIce coresHistory

Muir Glacier, Alaska

NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier photograph database.  Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

August 1941 August 2004

Shrinking glaciers

1992 2002 2005

Source: ACIA, 2004, CIRES, 2005, Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

Surface melting on Greenland is expanding

More extreme events…

Major floods per decade, 1950‐2000 

Coastal concerns

Sea level rise Storms

Photographer, Lisa Lebert

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/LSA_SLR_maps.php

Sea Level RiseSea level data from recent history~ 300 tide stationsSatellite altimeter data

What’s gonna happen?

Historical sea level data

Temp projections

Relationship between sea level and temp

Sea level rise projections

SLR =f(T)

Compiled by Pier Vellinga

58% of ports feel they would have a problem

39% of ports feel they would have a problem

12% of ports feel they would have a problem

Vermeer M Rahmstorf S PNAS 2009;106:21527-21532

Why does this matter now?69% of seaports believe that EXPECTED SLR would not be a problem

2010 2060 2085Expected life of infrastructure (50-100 years+)

Sea level rise is already affecting low-lying islands and coasts.

These impacts are likely to become very serious within 20 to 30 years.

By 2100, we may see 2 meters of rise. Under some scenarios it could be even more.

Christmas Island, Kiribati

Tropical storms

What’s gonna happen?By 2100

– Category 4 or 5 to increase frequency two‐fold 

– Storms with wind speeds greater than 145 mph will increase three‐fold.

– Frequency will decrease, but damage will still increase

C. Wang, S.-K. Lee, Geophysical Research Letters 35, (2008).

Wind sheer with climate change

(Bender, Knutson et al. 2010).

Storm impacts

4

Examples from Katrina (Cat 3 - 2005)

Eleven spills released ~ 7 million gallons of oil

http://www.cargolaw.com/2008nightmare_jaxcrane.html

16

$1.7 Billion in damage to Southern LA ports

People Displaced

Rotting chickencarcasses

Trade impactsto 30 states

$81B in damages

1m people “redistributed”

across the U.S.

Buildingsdestroyed

(Becker personal communications 2010; Presley et al. 2006; Santella et al. 20

Photograph: Guy Reynolds/Dallas Morning News/AP

1800 deaths

Summary

• Global warming is happening– Mitigate

– And adapt

• For coastal areas– Sea level rise will inundate some areas incrementally and others through storm surge

– Tropical storms will become more intense

Questions?

Contact Austin Becker austinb@stanford.edu

stanford.edu/~austinbwww.seaports2100.org

17

Many thanks to Prof. Pam Matson, Prof. Rob Dunbar, and Dr. Mike Mastrandrea

for their contributions to this presentation.

‘Climate change is real, and we are killing our planet more everyday,” said climatologist Helen Marcus, who has made similar statements in 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. “We need to make a serious effort to stop it, or, you know, we’ll all die. There really isn’t much else to say.

Extra Slides Below

Top Arguments of Anthropogenic Climate Change Skeptics

1) The Earth has been cooling since 1998.

Wrong. Analysis shows 2005 to be the “warmest” year globally. And nearly all years since 1995 are among the warmest 15 years out of the last 170 years.

2) The Medieval Warm Period (MWP), about 1000 years ago, exhibited warmer temperatures than we see today.

Wrong. While the MWP was indeed a relatively warm period, many 10’s of peer‐reviewed papers have show the temperatures of the last 50 years to be higher than at any time during the last 2,000 years (and probably the past 120,000 years).

3) Computer models of climate change are unreliable.

This might have  been  a fair comment 10 years ago, but no longer. Climate models, when run in hindcast mode, do a credible job of reproducing the observed climate, but only if they include man‐made trace gas effects.

4) Earth history shows that the climate is controlled by the sun.Partly right but a poor argument against anthropogenic influences. Radiative forcing of the 11 year solar cycle is only about 10% that of recent greenhouse gas forcing. Since solar irradiance is unchanged since 1960, recent warming cannot be so attributed.

5) Ice core data shows that sometimes, temperature rise precedes atmospheric CO2

rise during climate transitions.Irrelevant. This was predicted long ago as no one has ever suggested that changing CO2 triggers glaciation or deglaciation. The trigger is a change in the orbital parameters. CO2 is the amplifier, entirely consistent with anthropogenic climate change effects.

6) Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas. CO2, at 380 ppm is so dilute that it can’t possibly have a large effect.

Off‐target. Water is indeed an important greenhouse gas, and effectively doubles or triples the direct CO2 radiative effect. The water vapor feedback is well‐understood and is included in all climate change models.

7) It’s all natural variability, e.g., volcanoes, El Nino, sunspots.

Demonstrably incorrect. There are many 100’s of peer‐reviewed papers that show that these factors are important and they are already included in today’s view of climate change. Only by including anthropogenic CO2 can the last 100 years of rising temperatures be explained. No one has published a dissenting view in the peer‐reviewed literature.

The components are thermal expansion in the upper 700 m

Thermal expansion in the deep ocean (orange)

Ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland (cyan)

Glaciers and ice caps

Terrestrial storage

Contributions to sea level rise

1900 1950 2000

Why does this matter now?INFLATION-ADJUSTED U.S. CATASTROPHE LOSSES BY CAUSE OF LOSS, 1988-

2007

J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288‐293 ( 2006)

Average Surface T in 2001‐2005 vs 1951‐80

And not uniform…

Diminishing Sierra SnowpackPercentage Remaining, Relative to 1961‐1990

UCS

Sea level rise

Figure 15: Regional SLR after instantaneous removal of the ice from the area of interest (WAIS), including the effects of self-gravitation, elastic rebound of the lithosphere, and Earth rotation perturbations but excluding the effects of ocean circulation (Stammer, 2008) and other sources of ocean mass. (Bamber et al., 2009)

Four panels were convened to study and write reports on:• Limiting the magnitude of future climate change• Adapting to the impacts of climate change• Advancing the science of climate change• Informing an effective response to climate change

More information: http://americasclimatechoices.org

Climate Change Projections

IPCC, 2001

Source: Westerling et al. 2006

Western US area burned

Increasing wildfire risk…

Late Snowmelt Years Early Snowmelt Years

Fire and Snowmelt

Fewer, smaller fires More, larger fires

Westerling

Mitigation

Adaptation

Warming and Cooling Factors

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

20062005

Rapidly Increasing Emissions

Emissions, Concentrations, and Temperature

Natural Species Impacts

1‐Jan

31‐Jan

1‐Mar

31‐Mar

30‐Apr

30‐May

29‐Jun

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 19901995

First Arrival Day  Mourning Dove

2004>9,500 ft

1900>7,800 ft

Pika

Species Shifting and…

Raupach et al., 2007

Regional CO2 Emissions

2004 2000‐2004Growth

Natural Carbon Cycle

Human Impact on the Carbon Cycle

LAND

ATMOSPHERE750 Gt C 

379 ppm CO2

OCEANS

emissions fromterrestrial systems 100 Gt C per year

absorption byterrestrial systems103 Gt C per year

emissions frommarine systems100 Gt C per year

absorption bymarine systems102 Gt C per year

human‐caused emissions: 9 Gt C per year

Carbon Flows (2005)

‐2 Gt C

‐3 Gt C

What do we know?

Increasing CO2 Concentrations

IPCC, 2007

IPCC, 2007

Increasing CO2 Concentrations

Ice Core Records

IPCC, 2007Black = ObservedGold = Human and Natural ForcingsBlue = Only Natural Forcings

Fingerprint Analysis

http://ibis.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_gbl_free_txj1j2_90.png