Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Professor Dr. Ilan ChabayHead of Strategic Science Initiatives and the KLASICA platform at IASS;Adjunct Professor, School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, USA

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“Complexity, computation, and creativity on pathways toward sustainability in an increasingly

digitized world”

Digitalization and Sustainability Transitions in 2050 Taipei, 3 Oct. 2018

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Systems, Sustainability, SocietySociety is inextricably embedded in the natural systems on which it is entirely dependent

Societies define what is relevant and valuable in their relationship to the local and global environment, including ecology, biodiversity, and resources

Sustainability depends on how people conceive of their relationship to the environment and therefore their sense of their agency and responsibility to act

For well-being and even survival in the unprecedented, rapid rate of global change means that societies must continually learnand innovate for societal needs (through co-design processes)

The key challenge now is changing human behavior, particularly collective behaviors, rather than focusing on mitigating the consequences of unsustainable behaviors

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The World In 2050 (TWI2050) report led by IIASA and SRC assesses possible trajectories that meet the SDG targets by 2030 and continue on to project sustainable conditions for 2050.Six exemplary transformations i) Human capacity and demography; ii) Consumption and production; iii) Decarbonization and energy, iv) Food, biosphere and water; v) Smart cities and vi) Digital revolutionThe report provides policy recommendations on how to achieve integrated pathways that implement these transformations.

Pathways Toward Sustainable Futures

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TWI2050 follows a five-step process in undertaking such pathway development and analysis: 1. Description of a framing narrative about the transformation to sustainable futures 2. Identification of the transformations needed to achieve the SDG targets and beyond 3. Selection of economic, political and social instruments to promote the transformations 4. Quantification of the timing, technologies, and costs of the transformations 5. Identification of measures including public awareness, public deliberation, social activism, and democratic oversight of science and technology, to overcome obstacles to change

TWI 2050 Report 2018

Processes In Pathway Development

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▪ Innovation and the science and technology that drive it must become better aligned with and supportive of sustainability

▪ “The digital revolution symbolizes the convergence of many innovative technologies, many of which are currently ambivalent in their contribution to sustainable development, simultaneously supporting and threatening the ability to achieve the SDGs.”

▪ “There is an urgent need to bring the sustainability and the digital and technology communities together to align the direction of change with the 2030 Agenda and a sustainable future beyond.”

▪ “There is also a need to implement forward-looking roadmaps and governance structures that allow the mitigation of potential trade-offs of a STI [Science Technology Innovation] revolution, particularly relating to its impact on the workplace, on social cohesion, and human dignity.”

TWI 2050 Report 2018

Digital Society And Sustainability

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Enabling infrastructure• Universal access to high-quality, low-cost mobile

broadband Online services

• Online governance to support public services and participation

• Online finance and payments to facilitate trade and business services

• Regulatory security for online identity and privacy • Online national systems (or “platforms”) for healthcare

and education Digital systems to increase efficiency of resource use

• Smart grids and Internet of Things (IoT) for sustainable cities

TWI 2050 Report 2018 page 23

Example Measures For Digital Transformation

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• Income redistribution to address income inequalities arising from digital scale up

• Tax and regulatory systems to avoid monopolization of Internet services

• Democratic oversight of cutting-edge technologies (biotech, nanotech, AI, big data, autonomous systems)

• Universal access to high-quality, low-cost mobile broadband Education to avoid new digital divides and to develop capacities for sustainable digitalization

• Aligning the emerging digital technologies and infrastructures with human norms and the paradigm of sustainable development

TWI 2050 Report 2018 page 23

Instruments for a sustainable digital revolution

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Digitalization: • capacity to gather, store “big data” from multiple sources and forms• computational power and speed increasing rapidly• artificial intelligence (or interpretive/adaptive intelligence)• quantum computing development

Individuation and big data ▪ need to go beyond statistical generalization▪ concentration of computational power and information

processing▪ negative effects, including difficulties in oversight and

accountability▪ cyber crime and warfare, ▪ privacy▪ determining provenance of data▪ online education, citizen science, assisted living

Implications Of Digitalization

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▪ Data flood and social media make it more difficult for society to distinguish signal from noise

▪ Polarization of populations that focus on confirming information sources

▪ It is difficult to defend against deliberate efforts to inject unsubstantiated information and “fake news”

▪ Most of society is not able to process information as rapidly or effectively as actors with enormous computational power and access to personal and business data. This increases the digital divide and distrust of information sources

▪ Digital and computational elite have much greater access to tools for innovation and marketing

Societal Impacts of Digitalization

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▪ Focus on communicating by stimulating questions, nurturing curiosity, and supporting ownership of ideas

▪ Improve tools for thinking individually and collaboratively▪ Stimulate and expand opportunities for creative ideation with diverse

populations▪ Develop digital experiences that can enhance empathy for others▪ Explore and experiment with simulations of complex systems ▪ Games for engaging diverse stakeholders:

▪ games can function as boundary object for opening dialogues▪ augmented reality - “Gaming the Future”: Future landscapes and

a simple way to understand complexity▪ multiplayer, online, role-playing, game based on stories of

sustainable futures

Engaging Society, Finding New Pathways

German traveling exhibition on the transition to renewable energy sources

Game to stimulate questions on the transition to renewable energy

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

GtF: Landscape Construction Zone

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Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.

Kreyon City Prototype of GtF

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Research at Univ. of Rome on creativity and social innovation with Templeton and LEGO Foundation grants

Vittorio Loreto, PI withStefan ThurnerAndreas RoepstorffIlan Chabay

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THANK YOU!

Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V.Berliner Straße 130D – 14467 PotsdamWeb: www.iass-potsdam.de

ILAN CHABAYilan.chabay@iass-potsdam.de