“Approaches to and Causes of State Failure”“Approaches to and Causes of State Failure”Societal Systems Analysis:Societal Systems Analysis:

Discontinuities and Risk SurfacesDiscontinuities and Risk Surfaces

Monty G. Marshall, PhDMonty G. Marshall, PhDProgram Director: Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR)Program Director: Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR)

Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM)Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM)University of Maryland, USAUniversity of Maryland, USAwww.cidcm.umd.edu/inscrwww.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr

Director: Center for Systemic PeaceDirector: Center for Systemic Peacemembers.members.aolaol.com/.com/cspmgmcspmgm

“States at Risk – Stabilization and State-Building by External Intervention”“States at Risk – Stabilization and State-Building by External Intervention”StiftungStiftung WissenschaftWissenschaft und und PolitikPolitik and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

January 20-21, 2004January 20-21, 2004

Integrated Network forSocietal Conflict Research

Societal/Systemic Armed Conflict

Ethnopolitical Group Status and Action

Regime Characteristics and Transitions

Systemic Analysis and Early Warning

and Influence Networks

Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI)Armed Conflict and Intervention (ACI)

!! Monitors and records general parameters of serious armedMonitors and records general parameters of serious armedconflicts in all countries of the world annually since 1946;conflicts in all countries of the world annually since 1946;updated annuallyupdated annually

!! Interstate and intrastate wars (including interstate wars andInterstate and intrastate wars (including interstate wars andrevolutionary, ethnic, genocidal, and communal armedrevolutionary, ethnic, genocidal, and communal armedviolence)violence)

!! Systems Analysis: Complex intervention and influenceSystems Analysis: Complex intervention and influencestructures and dynamics (including general insecurity,structures and dynamics (including general insecurity,refugee flows, military intervention, arms transfers, foreignrefugee flows, military intervention, arms transfers, foreignsupport, political interaction events, bilateral trade flows,support, political interaction events, bilateral trade flows,and international organizations)and international organizations)

!! Spatial Analysis: Mapping “neighborhood effects”Spatial Analysis: Mapping “neighborhood effects”

Minorities at Risk (MAR)Minorities at Risk (MAR)

!! Monitors 285 current minority groups in 118 countriesMonitors 285 current minority groups in 118 countries(plus 42 historical groups; 327 total); 42 countries have(plus 42 historical groups; 327 total); 42 countries haveno groups listedno groups listed

!! “Minorities at Risk” groups must experience differential“Minorities at Risk” groups must experience differentialstatus or actively promote group interestsstatus or actively promote group interests

!! Minority group size threshold: 100,000 population or 1%Minority group size threshold: 100,000 population or 1%of total population (number of groups range from 0-11)of total population (number of groups range from 0-11)

!! Multiple indicators covering group characteristics andMultiple indicators covering group characteristics andstatus; differentials, restrictions, and discrimination;status; differentials, restrictions, and discrimination;organization, collective interests, and sources oforganization, collective interests, and sources oftransnational support; and group conflict behaviortransnational support; and group conflict behavior(factional, communal, protest, rebellion, and repression)(factional, communal, protest, rebellion, and repression)

!! Narrative descriptions and risk assessmentsNarrative descriptions and risk assessments

Assessing the Risks of Future Ethnic Wars

Polity IVPolity IV!! Regime authority characteristics: annual time-series andRegime authority characteristics: annual time-series and

“polity-case” formats, updated annually“polity-case” formats, updated annually!! Covers all independent states (> 500,000 pop. in mostCovers all independent states (> 500,000 pop. in most

recent year), 1800-2002recent year), 1800-2002!! “Patterns of Authority” // Societal Conflict“Patterns of Authority” // Societal Conflict

"" Executive recruitment, executive constraints, andExecutive recruitment, executive constraints, andpolitical competitionpolitical competition

"" Conceptual variables, regime transitions, narrativeConceptual variables, regime transitions, narrativedescriptions, trends graphsdescriptions, trends graphs

!! Polity Scale: Fully institutionalized autocracy to fullyPolity Scale: Fully institutionalized autocracy to fullyinstitutionalized democracy (institutionalized democracy (anocracyanocracy/incoherent/incoherentauthority)authority)

(by Polity Regime Score)

(by Polity Regime Score)

Political Instability (State Failure) Task ForcePolitical Instability (State Failure) Task Force!! Data-Driven Early Warning and Risk AssessmentData-Driven Early Warning and Risk Assessment!! US Government Task Force initiated in 1995 at theUS Government Task Force initiated in 1995 at the

request of top policy makers; brings together prominentrequest of top policy makers; brings together prominentscholars from many fieldsscholars from many fields

!! Designed to anticipate serious failures of governanceDesigned to anticipate serious failures of governancetwo years in advance; such failures include adversetwo years in advance; such failures include adverseregime changes (106), revolutionary wars (62), ethnicregime changes (106), revolutionary wars (62), ethnicwars (72), and political mass murder (genocide andwars (72), and political mass murder (genocide andpoliticide – 39)politicide – 39)

!! Collects and compiles (and creates) open source dataCollects and compiles (and creates) open source datacovering all countries in the world, 1955-2002covering all countries in the world, 1955-2002

!! Extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses informExtensive qualitative and quantitative analyses informthe design of “early warning” and “risk” modelsthe design of “early warning” and “risk” models

Key Global Risk Factors for InstabilityKey Global Risk Factors for Instability

!! Regime Type:Regime Type: Weak democracies (29.7/12.8) and Weak democracies (29.7/12.8) andautocracies with some competition (8.2)autocracies with some competition (8.2)

!! Exclusivity: Exclusivity: State policies of discrimination or activeState policies of discrimination or activerepression of communal groups (2.6)repression of communal groups (2.6)

!! Underdevelopment: Underdevelopment: High infant mortality (poorHigh infant mortality (pooreconomic capacity; 2.3)economic capacity; 2.3)

!! Bad Neighborhood:Bad Neighborhood: Two or more bordering states with Two or more bordering states withinternal armed conflicts (1.7)internal armed conflicts (1.7)

!! International Isolation: International Isolation: Low trade opennessLow trade openness(connectivity; 1.5)(connectivity; 1.5)

Specialized Models and ApplicationsSpecialized Models and Applications

!! Sub-Saharan Africa Regional ModelSub-Saharan Africa Regional Model!! Muslim Countries ModelMuslim Countries Model!! Autocratic Regimes ModelAutocratic Regimes Model!! Ethnic War ModelEthnic War Model!! Political Mass Murder (Genocide-Political Mass Murder (Genocide-PoliticidePoliticide) Model) Model!! Measuring State Capacity and PerformanceMeasuring State Capacity and Performance!! Transitional Analysis of DemocratizationTransitional Analysis of Democratization!! Ties Between States and Terrorist GroupsTies Between States and Terrorist Groups!! Sub-national Risk Assessment: Spatial Correlation andSub-national Risk Assessment: Spatial Correlation and

Risk MappingRisk Mapping

Key Findings: Transitions to DemocracyKey Findings: Transitions to Democracy

!! Structural Factors: Structural Factors: Level of economic development;Level of economic development;political competition; checks and balances; global andpolitical competition; checks and balances; global andregional contextregional context

!! Civil Liberties: Civil Liberties: In autocracies, expanded civil libertiesIn autocracies, expanded civil libertiesimprove odds of deeper changeimprove odds of deeper change

!! Resource Curse: Resource Curse: Barriers are much higher in wealthyBarriers are much higher in wealthyautocracies with no democratic experienceautocracies with no democratic experience

!! Economic Crisis: Economic Crisis: Triggers regime change, positive andTriggers regime change, positive andnegativenegative

!! Transitional or Nascent Democracies are atTransitional or Nascent Democracies are atespecially vulnerableespecially vulnerable

INSCR Peace and Conflict SeriesINSCR Peace and Conflict SeriesA Global Survey of Armed Conflicts,

Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy

Peace and Conflict LedgerPeace and Conflict Ledger

Peace-building Capacity

• Human Security• Self-Determination• Group Discrimination• Regime Type• Regime Durability• Societal Capacity• Neighborhood

Peace-Building Capacities of StatesPeace-Building Capacities of States

Global Terrorism: Actor-Target Relationships

The EndThe End

INSCR ProgramINSCR ProgramCIDCM, University of MarylandCIDCM, University of Maryland

www.www.cidcmcidcm..umdumd..eduedu//inscrinscr