antónio rebelo de sousa presentation - estoril conferences 2013
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"Human Security" - Presentation of António Rebelo de Sousa - Vice President of Observatory for Security, Organized Crime and Terrorism - Speaker at Estoril Conferences 2013TRANSCRIPT
HUMAN SECURITY
António Rebelo de Sousa
CONFERÊNCIAS DO ESTORIL
2013
In my approach to Human Security, I will try to establish a connection with the Economic Relativity Theory, with the Three Welfare Diamonds Theory as well as with the Systemic Problems that World Economy is currently facing.
I will also try to present a path for the future, especially in what concerns what I call a IV Industrial and Services Revolution. I will also approach, the role of the Tradable Goods Sector and the role of the Non Tradable Goods Sector and, finally, the role of the State in the Economy.
When we are talk about Human Security, we talk about Economic Security, Food Security, Health Security, Environmental Security, Personal Security, Political Security, Community Security and Traditional Security (1).
All these different levels of analysis have an influence in WELL BEING as well as in the Human Development Index.
Economic Security has to do with the basic income for individuals and their own families, while Food Security means the access to basic food and Health Security protection from diseases and unhealthy lifestyles (2).
Environmental Security relates to protection from pollution and global warming, while Personal Security means protection from physical violence.
Community Security means protection from loss of traditional relationships and values and Political Securities is related to Human Rights (2).
The so called Traditional Security is linked to State's ability to defend itself against external threat, and therefore, we must consider the concepts of Soft and Hard Defence.
All these different levels of analysis are connected to the Economic Relativity Theory and to the Three Welfare Diamonds.
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
The Economic Relativity Theory gives a significant importance to the global context, to psychological factors and to the FTL behaviour (Follow the Leader behaviour, putting in question the rationality of the economic agents behaviour ).
And, at the same time, in order to understand the problems concerning Human Security we must consider the Three Welfare Diamonds interconnecting the New Macroeconomic Diamond-NMD, the New Entrepreneurial Diamond-NED and the Economic Relativity Diamond-ERD (3).
The NDM’s main purpose is a well succeeded Internationalization of the Economy, and the factors to be herein considered should be CONFIDENCE, RESEARCH, MODERNIZATION, STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS, TRAINING and INVESTMENT.
The lapidator should be the State.
The NED’s main purpose is a well succeeded competition, and the factors to be herein considered should be ENTREPRENEURIAL ORGANIZATION, PRODUCT AND SEGMENTED POLICIES, RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT, ADAPTATION TO LOCAL CONDITIONS and STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS.
The lapidator should be the enterprise.
The ERD’s purpose is WELL-BEING, and the factors I have selected are DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS, GOOD GOVERNANCE, PARTICIPATIVE STRUCTURES, SOCIAL MOBILITY, SOCIAL STRUCTURES and DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS.
The lapidator must be the citizen.
In short, there is a virtuous triangle interconnecting STATE-CITIZEN-ENTREPRISE. This analysis allows us to consider the Integrated Human Development Index, as for instance the DYNAMIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (4) and the SUSTAINABLE AND DYNAMIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (5).
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
It is also possible to consider the interconnection between the Three Welfare Diamonds and a new conception of Cooperation Policies- THE COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK ( CDF )- ( 6 ).
This new conception was responsible for a well succeeded negotiation between Portugal and Cape Verde, the Cooperation Agreement concerning a "peg" of the CV Escudo to the Portuguese Escudo.
I would like to emphasize that we are facing some Systemic Problems in the World Economy. As a matter of fact, there has been a change, during the last decade, in the labour market sensibility to OKUN's LAW. There was an increase in the Unemployment Natural Rate in developed economies and this evolution cannot be inverted when only considering the Tradable Goods Sector.
At the same time, there is a NEW MALTHUSIAN SYNDROME.
During the last years and regarding the pattern of consumption, we may say that there has been a high increase in the intermediate countries.
But the developed countries are facing production stagnation and, therefore, it will be very difficult for the intermediate countries to avoid a deceleration of growth.
That tendency to a growth deceleration would imply a deceleration in the process of transfer of labour from the traditional sector to the modern sector, thus questioning the present expectations concerning the future evolution of the standards of living in those countries.
So, this means that we can have potential social problems with the Intermediate and Peripheral countries.
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
And we also have a third problem, which concerns the role of the State in the future. In that respect, I would like to emphasize that there is a Laffer Curve as regards the State Dimension and Well-Being (7).
However, such Laffer Curve should be different when considering a developed country and an Intermediate Country.
That means that each economy represents a special case to be considered, considering its specific level of development, its culture and social structures.
Do we have any ideas about the solutions to the Systemic Problems we are presently facing? I believe we may have some.
First, I believe in a IV Industrial and Social Revolution based in two strategic sectors: Health and Energy.
I believe that the technological progress in the Health Sector will allow for an increase as regards life expectancy and for a positive evolution of the medical prices and medical devices, thus creating new opportunities.
I believe that the technological progress of the energetic sector will allow for a substantial decrease as regards marginal production costs.
We, already, have the good example of what is happening with the shale gas in the USA. I believe in a new conception of the role of the State based in the principles of flexibility, mobility and efficiency (considering, at the same time, the positive contributions of the Keynesian approach in what concerns monetary and financial policies ).
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
I believe in a strengthening of the intervention of international institutions, concerning supervision and foreign aid.
And I, also, believe that, although it is important to give priority to the Tradable Goods Sector, it is necessary to consider investment programs in the Domestic Sector (Non Tradable Goods Sector), so that we can attain a significant decrease in the unemployment rate.
This means that, from a growth velocity point of view, a dual economy presents some advantages.
And finally, a word on Traditional Security.
There is a certain tendency to support the idea of putting in practice a soft defence strategy because economies are facing budgetary constraints.
This tendency is understandable.
But, in my opinion, it is only possible to avoid a generalized international conflict if the main western democracies also understand that it is necessary to implement a hard defence strategy.
It will be imperative to attain an adequate balance between soft defence and hard defence. In conclusion, the World is facing very complex problems.
But, as a very well known Portuguese poet, Fernando Pessoa, has said "To be happy is to acknowledge that life is worth living, despite all the challenges, misunderstandings, and periods of crises. To be happy means to stop being the victim of problems and to become the author of our own History".
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
HUMAN SECURITY
1
HUMAN SECURITY
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
ECONOMIC SECURITY
PE
RS
ON
AL
SE
CU
RIT
Y
TRADITIONAL SECURITY
EN
VIR
ON
ME
NT
AL
SE
CU
RIT
Y
WELL-BEING
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
HUMAN SECURITY
2
Basic Income for individuals and their families.
Protection from physical violence.
Access to basic food. Protection from loss of traditional relationships and values.
Protection from diseases and unhealthy lifestyles.
Human rights.
Protection from pollution and global warming.
STATE'S ABILITY TO DEFEND ITSELF AGAINST EXTERNAL THREATS.
HEALTH
FOOD
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL TRADITIONAL
POLITICAL
COMMUNITY
PERSONAL
SOFT DEFENCE HARD DEFENCE
WELL-BEING
THE THREE WELFARE DIAMONDS
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THE THREE WELFARE DIAMONDS
INTERNATIONALIZATION [STATE]
CONFIDENCE
INVESTMENT
WELL-BEING [CITIZEN]
DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS
DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS
COMPETITION [ENTERPRISE]
ENTREPRENEURIAL ORGANIZATION
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP
THE NEW MACROECONOMIC DIAMOND
THE ECONOMIC RELATIVITY DIAMOND
THE NEW ENTREPRENEURIAL DIAMOND
THE INCREASE OF THE NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS A NEW MALTHUSIAN SYNDROME
III INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (DECADENCE) IV INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICES REVOLUTION [HEALTH; ENERGY]
[CITIZEN]
[STATE] [ENTERPRISE]
THE VIRTUOUS TRIANGLE:
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THE THREE WELFARE DIAMONDS
INTERVENTION AREAS
INTERVENTION LEVELS
GOOD GOVERNANCE
STRONG AND INDEPENDENT JUDICIAL POWER
STRONG FINANCIAL SYSTEM
EDUCATION
HEALTH
FRAMEWORK INFRASTRUCTURES
ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION
DEBT NEGOTIATION
CONSISTENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY
STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM
INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
CDF – COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK
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THE THREE WELFARE DIAMONDS
1. – Life expectancy at birth
2. – Education
2.1. – Adult literacy rate
2.2. – Combined literacy rate
4. – Gender adjusted development index
3. – GDP (p.p.p.) p.c.
7. – Average rate of variation of the capitalist intensity coefficient and the GDP in the last five years.
6. – High and medium technology exports as a percentage of total exports and royalties revenue per thousand individuals.
8. – Degree of political participation
0,200
Weight
0,080
0,075
0,050
0,250
0,170
0,050
0,050
0,075
5. – Percentage of individuals living on an income less than 50% of the average and long term unemployment rate (over 12 months)
DYNAMIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
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THE THREE WELFARE DIAMONDS
1. – Life expectancy at birth
2. – Education
2.1. – Adult literacy rate
2.2. – Combined literacy rate
4. – Gender adjusted development index
3. – GDP (p.p.p.) p.c.
7. – Average rate of variation of the capitalist intensity coefficient and the GDP in the last five years.
6. – High and medium technology exports as a percentage of total exports and royalties revenue per thousand individuals.
8. – Degree of political participation
0,180
Weight
0,070
0,075
0,050
0,230
0,170
0,050
0,050
0,075
5. – Percentage of individuals living on an income less than 50% of the average and long term unemployment rate (over 12 months)
9. – Carbon dioxide emissions 0,050
SUSTAINABLE AND DYNAMIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
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OPPORTUNITIES AND PROBLEMS
IV INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICES REVOLUTION
HEALTH
SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS
LIFE EXPECTANCY
NEW OPPORTUNITIES
NEW TECHNOLOGIES (f. i., SHALE GAS)
MARGINAL COSTS
INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS (THE NEW LAFFER’S CURVE)
ENERGY
THE ROLE OF THE STATE
THE INCREASE OF NATURAL RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT.
LABOUR MARKET SENSITIVITY TO OKUN'S LAW
THE INCREASE IN THE PATTERN OF CONSUMPTION IN THE INTERMEDIATE COUNTRIES.
PRODUCTION STAGNATION IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES.
DECELARATION OF GROWTH IN INTERMEDIATE COUNTRIES.
POTENTIAL SOCIAL PROBLEMS IN INTERMEDIATE AND IN PERIPHERAL COUNTRIES.
VIOLENCE?
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(a New Laffer’s Curve)
THE ROLE OF THE STATE
WELL- -BEING
SD – STATE DIMENSION
WELL- -BEING
SD – STATE DIMENSION
DC – Developed Country IC – Intermediate Country
DC
IC
CONSIDERING DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS
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SOLUTIONS
INDUSTRIAL AND SERVICES REVOLUTION
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN HEALTH
LIFE EXPECTANCY
OF MEDICATION PRICES AND MEDICAL DEVICES
NEW OPPORTUNITIES
MARGINAL PRODUCTION COSTS
FLEXIBILITY
MOBILITY
EFFICIENCY
INTEGRATED APPROACH (Neo-Keynesian approach in what concerns monetary and financial policies)
STRENGTHENING OF THE INTERVENTION OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CONCERNING SUPERVISION AND FOREIGN AID
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN ENERGY
THE ROLE OF THE STATE
TRADITIONAL SECURITY
SOFT DEFENCE HARD DEFENCE
SYSTEMIC PROBLEMS
PRIORITY TO THE TRADABLE GOODS SECTOR
IT IS ALSO NECESSARY TO CONSIDER INVESTMENT PROGRAMS IN THE NON TRADABLE GOODS SECTOR - NRU
ADEQUATE EQUILIBRIUM
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FINAL REMARKS
THE WORLD IS FACING VERY COMPLEX PROBLEMS BUT, AS THE FAMOUS PORTUGUESE POET FERNANDO PESSOA HAS SAID,
“To be happy is to acknowledge that life is worth living,
despite all the challenges, misunderstandings, and periods of crisis.
To be happy, is to stop being the victim of problems
and become the author of our own History.
03-11-2014 António Rebelo de Sousa
OBRIGADO