1.Mark A Hart, NPDP 1 Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience

2. Outline Characterizing development environments Iatrogenesis Typical Options Development Options Comparing Development Options to Concepts Represented in Boyds OODA Loop Sketch Enhancing Optionality throughout Development Antifragility and Development Experience 2 3. Characterizations of development environments Fragile Robust Resilient Antifragile 3 4. Fragile development environments Do not welcome disorder When uncertainty is injected, the typical results are unpleasant 4 5. 5 One obstacle can prevent the realization of value 6. Examples of harmful conditions: Incorrect, incomplete, or misleading information Problematic handoffs Disagreements among functional groups 6 7. Examples of unpleasant results: Delays Cost overruns Insufficient adoption of the product Frustration 7 8. 8 The more fragile the development environment, the less likely it is to thrive 9. From project-to-project Robust development environments tend to survive unchanged Resilient development environments survive changes from external factors 9 10. Antifragile An adjective created by Taleb The exact opposite of fragile 10 11. 11 Antifragile is beyond resilience or robustness 12. Antifragile An antifragile system thrives and grows when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and it welcomes adventure, risk, and uncertainty 12 13. 13 Iatrogenics: Damage from treatment in excess of the benefits 14. 14 Preventable harm resulting from the treatment or advice of a healer Iatrogenics: 15. Sources of potentially harmful inputs Specialists that insist that the development problem relates to their area of expertise Innovation pundits, consultants, and vendors Interventionalists Status quo 15 16. 16 Recognizing harmfulness is more difficult in development environments that isolate individuals of different functional specialties 17. 17 Iatrogenesis New product development efforts can suffer from 18. Reduce harmful inputs by: Requisite Variety Disintermediation Pair Development 18 19. 19 Formulated by W Ross Ashby = variety of potential responses = variety of disturbances (problems) = variety of outcomes tolerable by the essential variables Requisite Variety 20. 20 Requisite variety requires a large repertoire of possible responses 21. 21 Achieving Requisite Variety Mobilize network of contributors with diverse specialties and multiple perspectives Additional training Access to expertise Cooperation 22. 22 Without requisite variety, familiar patterns may not be recognized as insufficient responses 23. 23 Without a variety of potential responses at the appropriate times, a development environment may be 24. 24 Excessive variety may reduce agility 25. To ensure the adaptability of the development network Amplify appropriately Attenuate appropriately 25 26. Disintermediation Remove layers between individual contributors and data Remove barriers between decision makers 26 27. 27 Facilitate Disintermediation Experience interactions of customers with prototypes Direct observations that promote full- fidelity interactions 28. Pair Development Interaction of disciplines Synthesis of options Develop self-correcting focus and direction 28 29. 29 Reducing iatrogenesis is a prerequisite to synthesizing more attractive options 30. Typical Options Provides the buyer the potential to take action No obligation to buy or sell 30 31. 31 A quality of state where choice or discretion is allowed 32. 32 An option is a substitute for knowledge 33. 33 Antifragility supersedes intelligence 34. Typical Options Initially depends on factors such as negotiation skills Eventually depends on the type of control individuals have over their decisions 34 35. Development Options Associated with current capabilities Within project constraints 35 36. 36 Synthesis: a process of connection to generate something new and different 37. 37 A synthesis approach enables one to imagine how several capabilities may work together to produce the desired result 38. 38 Analyze situations and synthesize new options continuously 39. 39 Interaction with the environment that enables individuals to comprehend, shape, and adapt 40. 40 Enables faster tempos and rhythms and compression of cycle times 41. 41 Non-linear gains by synthesizing many options and exercising attractive development options 42. 42 Comparing Development Options to Concepts Represented in Boyds OODA Loop Sketch Illustration by Mark A Hart 2014. Lower graphic is based on The Essence of Winning and Losing, John R Boyd, June 1995. 43. Enhancing Optionality throughout Development Change the environment to improve the capability to synthesize many development options and exercise attractive development options 43 44. Enhancing Optionality throughout Development Design the development environment to embrace optionality Produce new repertoire Develop capabilities for rapid observation, orientation, decision, and action Improve the capability to shift rapidly between options Improve the capability to synthesize options that are cohesive across the network and cohesive over the duration of the project Improve the proficiency to exercise attractive options 44 45. skin in the game Development Experience 45 46. 46 Development Experience may improve incrementally by reducing fragility, increasing robustness, or increasing resilience 47. 47 Development Experience may improve dramatically by designing the environment to improve antifragility 48. 48 The option is an agent of antifragility 49. 49 Development options are agents of development experience 50. Developing Winners: Assimilating the Insights Encapsulated in Boyd's OODA Loop 50 www.Developing-Winners.com 51. Mark A Hart 51 www.OpLaunch.com Twitter: Antifragility in New Product Development: How Enhancing Optionality Improves Development Experience 18 June 2014 Development Experience @OpLaunch