anticipating 2025: changing technologies and intermodal linkages in aerial, highway, marine, and...
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Anticipating 2025: Changing Technologies and Anticipating 2025: Changing Technologies and Intermodal Linkages in Aerial, Highway, Marine, and Intermodal Linkages in Aerial, Highway, Marine, and Rail Transportation in the Northeast Corridor, Rail Transportation in the Northeast Corridor, University of Delaware, October 19 2007University of Delaware, October 19 2007
The Insertion of The Insertion of BostWash within the BostWash within the Global and National Global and National Freight FrameworksFreight FrameworksJean-Paul RodrigueAssociate Professor, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA
Email: [email protected] available at:http://people.hofstra.edu/faculty/Jean-paul_Rodrigue
Freight Frameworks: From Global to Freight Frameworks: From Global to LocalLocal
CommodityChains
Transportation
Global
Regional
Local
Production
Distribution
Consumption
Gateways
Corridors
Terminals
Integrated Transport Systems
UPS Willow Springs Distribution Center, ChicagoUPS Willow Springs Distribution Center, Chicago
Insertion in the Global Trade FrameworkInsertion in the Global Trade Framework
Imbalanced TradeImbalanced TradeImbalanced Container Imbalanced Container
FlowsFlowsCommodity ChainsCommodity Chains
Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 2005Trade Routes, 2005
1.8
(-18%
)
4.3 (+30%)USAUSA6.1
AsiaAsia13.9 (+148%)
23.8
8.9
3.3
(+14
%)9.9 (+120%
)
5.6 (+55%)
17.2
11.7
9.9
EuropeEurope
Million TEUs
Growth (2000-2005)
Imports (Million TEUs)
Exports (Million TEUs)
Balance of Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 1995-2006 (in millions of TEUs)
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
01995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe/USA
Asia/Europe
Asia/USA
Sectors of American Imports of Asian Goods Through Maritime Container Shipping, 2004 (in TEUs)
0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 1,800,000
Big box retailer
Furniture
Electronics
Appliances
Auto parts
Tires
Shoes
Toys
Electrical equipment
Machinery
Textiles
Apparel
Commodity Chains and Added ValueCommodity Chains and Added Value
Commodity chain
Adde
d va
lue
Low
High
Manufacturing
R&D Globalization
DistributionDesign
Branding Marketing
Sales / Service
Concept Logistics
Insertion in the Transportation and Insertion in the Transportation and Logistical FrameworkLogistical Framework
Gateways and CorridorsGateways and CorridorsContainerization and the Velocity of FreightContainerization and the Velocity of Freight
Shipping NetworksShipping NetworksGlobal Port OperatorsGlobal Port Operators
APL Distribution Center, Shenzhen, ChinaAPL Distribution Center, Shenzhen, China
Elements of the Maritime / Land Elements of the Maritime / Land InterfaceInterface
Port System
Foreland (Shipping Network)
Road Rail Coastal / Fluvial
Hinterland (FDC)
Corridors and Hubs
Gateways
Mari
tim
e F
reig
ht
Mari
tim
e F
reig
ht
Dis
trib
uti
on
Dis
trib
uti
on
Inla
nd
Fre
igh
tIn
lan
d F
reig
ht
Dis
trib
uti
on
Dis
trib
uti
on
Traffic at the 50 Largest Container Ports, Traffic at the 50 Largest Container Ports, 20052005
Dubai
Tacoma
Santos
Jeddah
Seattle
Salalah
Oakland
Colombo
Savannah
Melbourne
Long BeachCharleston
Nhava Sheva
Los Angeles
Hampton Roads
New York/New Jersey
Kobe
Tokyo
BusanXiamen
Ningbo
Nagoya
Manila
Dalian
Tianjin
Keelung
Yokohama
Shenzhen Shanghai
Quingdao
Singapore
Kaohsiung
Hong KongGuangzhou
Port Kalang
Ho Chi Minh
Laem Chabang
Tanjung Priok
Tanjung Pelepas
LeHavre
Hamburg
Antwerp
Valencia
Rotterdam
Barcelona
Algeciras
Felixstowe
Gioia Tauro
Bremen/Bremerhafen
Pacific Asia Europe
TEU
Less than 2 million
2 to 4 million
4 to 7 million
7 to 10 million
More than 10 million
World Container Traffic, 1980-2005. Reaching Peak Growth?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Mill
ion
TEU
Divergence
Adoption Acceleration Peak Growth Maturity
1966-1992
1992-2002
2002-2010(?) 2010(?) -
The Velocity of FreightThe Velocity of Freight
Push Logistics
Shipment Speed
Transshipment Speed
Pull Logistics
Containerization
Speed barrier
Logistical threshold
Future improvements
Three Major Pendulum Routes Serviced Three Major Pendulum Routes Serviced by OOCL, 2006by OOCL, 2006
Fos
Tokyo
Genoa
Ningbo
Hamburg
Shanghai
Le Havre
KaohsiungHong Kong
Singapore
Barcelona
Rotterdam
Port Kelang
Southampton
Laem Chabang
OaklandLos Angeles
NorfolkNew York
Charleston
Atlantic Express (ATX)
European Union / Mediterranean (EUM)
South China Express (SCX)
27 Days
49 Days
39 Days
Note: Paths are approximate
Pacific Asia Europe
APM Terminals
Dubai Ports World
Hutchison Port Holdings
Port of Singapore Authority
Eurogate
Stevedoring Services of America
Dedicated Maritime Container TerminalsMajort Port Holdings, 2007
Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University
Insertion in the Continental FrameworkInsertion in the Continental Framework
HinterlandsHinterlandsTrade CorridorsTrade Corridors
LandbridgesLandbridges
APL “Australia” entering San Francisco HarborAPL “Australia” entering San Francisco Harbor
Hinterland Setting and Major Economic Hinterland Setting and Major Economic RegionsRegions
North AmericaNorth America Western EuropeWestern Europe East and Southeast AsiaEast and Southeast Asia
Coastal concentrationLandbridge connections
Inland concentrationCoastal gateways
Coastal concentrationLow hinterland access
Hinterland intensity Freight Corridor hierarchy Gateway hierarchy
Main North American Trade Corridors Main North American Trade Corridors and Metropolitan Freight Centersand Metropolitan Freight Centers
Miami
Boston
Dallas
Denver
Norfolk
Atlanta
Memphis
Halifax
Detroit
Toronto
Chicago
Houston
Phoenix
Seattle
Calgary
Savannah
Edmonton
Winnipeg
Montreal
New York
Portland
Baltimore
Charlotte
Cleveland
St. Louis
San Diego
Vancouver
Charleston
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
New Orleans
Kansas City
Minneapolis
Los Angeles
Philadelphia
Oklahoma Ci ty
San Francisco
Salt Lake City
Hub
Gateway
Regina
Calgary
Memphis
Chicago
Winnipeg
St LouisKansas City
Minneapolis
Dallas / Fort Worth
Houston
Savannah
Montreal
Vancouver
Charleston
Hampton Roads
New York/New Jersey
Tacoma
Seattle
Oakland
Long BeachLos Angeles
Potential Location of Major Transmodal Rail Facilities:Maritime Gateways and Inland Hubs
Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University
Maritime Rail Gateway
Transmodal Rail Hub
Beware of Future Expectations: The Beware of Future Expectations: The Fallacies of Linear ThinkingFallacies of Linear Thinking
Beware of Future Expectations: The Fallacies of Linear Thinking (Projected TEU Traffic, Port of NY/NJ)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Mill
ion
TEU
s
Real (- 2006)
Projected
Monthly Traffic, Port of Los Angeles (TEUs)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Janua
ry
Februa
ryMarc
hApril
MayJu
neJu
ly
August
Septem
ber
Octobe
r
November
Decem
ber
2004
2005
2006
2007
Insertion in the Regional FrameworkInsertion in the Regional Framework
Distribution ClustersDistribution ClustersRegional Freight DistributionRegional Freight Distribution
Port RegionalizationPort Regionalization
““Maersk Sealand” Locomotive, Landers Yard (NS), ChicagoMaersk Sealand” Locomotive, Landers Yard (NS), Chicago
The “Last Mile” in Freight DistributionThe “Last Mile” in Freight Distribution
GatewayInland
TerminalDistribution
Center
Capacity
Frequency
Corridor Customer
“Last Mile”
Segment
GLOBALGLOBAL HINTERLANDHINTERLAND REGIONALREGIONALLOCALLOCAL
Shipping Network
MassificationMassification AtomizationAtomization
Proximity and Intermediacy for Proximity and Intermediacy for Distribution ClustersDistribution Clusters
DCDC
DCDCDCDC
Long distance transport corridor
Intermediacy
Proxim
ity
Proximity
MetropolitanMetropolitanAreaArea
Main Access Corridors to the East CoastMain Access Corridors to the East Coast
Boston – Washington Corridor: Volume to Boston – Washington Corridor: Volume to Capacity RatioCapacity Ratio
Port Inland Distribution Network and Port Inland Distribution Network and Freight ClustersFreight Clusters
Translisft crane, NS Rutherford yard, PATranslisft crane, NS Rutherford yard, PA
Conclusion: Global Processes, Local Conclusion: Global Processes, Local RealitiesRealities
Multiscalar Freight InsertionMultiscalar Freight InsertionModal Shift (rail corridors)Modal Shift (rail corridors)
Freight Diversion (regionalization)Freight Diversion (regionalization)