annex a - list of maps and tables list of figures · 2019. 7. 8. · figure 5.32 perceived...

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ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 1 Annex A - List of maps and tables List of figures Figure 3.1 The Panarchy model of System Change (adapted from Pendall et al, 2010). Figure 4.1 Proportion of trade undertaken with other EU economies and external to the EU Figure 4.2 Number of national economies in decline across the ESPON space 1990-2011 Figure 4.3 Annual incidence of employment and GDP decline at a regional level Figure 4.4 Percentage loss in employment from pre-crisis peak (1990s, by region) Figure 4.5 Period taken to recover to pre-crisis peak employment (years, by region) Figure 4.6 Employment losses in selected economies (Millenial downturn) Figure 5.1 GDP change in EU economies Figure 5.2 Employment decline by region (%, peak year to 2011) Figure 5.3 Impact of the crisis within ESPON states Figure 5.4 Intra-country differences in employment experience Figure 5.5 Employment losses by sector (NACE2, 2008-11) Figure 5.6 Variations in sectoral employment change across countries (Max-Min by country, %) Figure 5.7 Unemployment rates in EU (2000-2013) Figure 5.8 Regional unemployment rates by country (2007) Figure 5.9 Regional unemployment rates by country (2011) Figure 5.10 Change in range between highest and lowest unemployment (2007- 11, by country) Figure 5.11 Changes in EU trade volume, 2000-2011 Figure 5.12 Ratio of gross household debt to income (EU28) Figure 5.13a Declining household debt:income ratios

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  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 1

    Annex A - List of maps and tables

    List of figures

    Figure 3.1 The Panarchy model of System Change (adapted from Pendall et al,

    2010).

    Figure 4.1 Proportion of trade undertaken with other EU economies and

    external to the EU

    Figure 4.2 Number of national economies in decline across the ESPON space

    1990-2011

    Figure 4.3 Annual incidence of employment and GDP decline at a regional level

    Figure 4.4 Percentage loss in employment from pre-crisis peak (1990s, by region)

    Figure 4.5 Period taken to recover to pre-crisis peak employment (years, by

    region)

    Figure 4.6 Employment losses in selected economies (Millenial downturn)

    Figure 5.1 GDP change in EU economies

    Figure 5.2 Employment decline by region (%, peak year to 2011)

    Figure 5.3 Impact of the crisis within ESPON states

    Figure 5.4 Intra-country differences in employment experience

    Figure 5.5 Employment losses by sector (NACE2, 2008-11)

    Figure 5.6 Variations in sectoral employment change across countries (Max-Min

    by country, %)

    Figure 5.7 Unemployment rates in EU (2000-2013)

    Figure 5.8 Regional unemployment rates by country (2007)

    Figure 5.9 Regional unemployment rates by country (2011)

    Figure 5.10 Change in range between highest and lowest unemployment (2007-

    11, by country)

    Figure 5.11 Changes in EU trade volume, 2000-2011

    Figure 5.12 Ratio of gross household debt to income (EU28)

    Figure 5.13a Declining household debt:income ratios

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 2

    Figure 5.13b Rapid increase-decline in household debt:income ratios

    Figure 5.13c Gradual increase-decline in household debt:income ratios

    Figure 5.13d Marked increase-decline in household debt:income ratios

    Figure 5.13e Increasing household debt:income ratios

    Figure 5.14 Trends in Government debt (% GDP)

    Figure 5.15 Change in proportion of population living in low work intensity

    households (2008-12, %)

    Figure 5.16 Change in the total number of hours worked (2005-2011, %)

    Figure 5.17 Change in total level of employment compensation (2008-11, %)

    Figure 5.18 Change in total household disposable income (2008-12, %)

    Figure 5.19 Population at risk of poverty (2011)

    Figure 5.20 Changes in proportion of population at risk of poverty (NUTS2)

    Figure 5.21 Comparative net migration rates (2001-07, 2008-11)

    Figure 5.22 House price index 2007-12

    Figure 5.23 Public perceptions of their national economy

    Figure 5.24 Proportion of residents who believe worst of crisis is still to come (%)

    Figure 5.25 Change in proportion of residents who believe worst of the crisis is

    still to come

    Figure 5.26 Proportion of respondents Very Confident in their ability to keep their

    job (%)

    Figure 5.27 Proportion of respondents Not At All or Not Very Confident in their

    ability to keep their job (%)

    Figure 5.28 Extent to which the crisis is having an impact on your personal

    situation (% respondents)

    Figure 5.29 Employment effects, as a direct response to the crisis

    Figure 5.30 Perceived change in level of poverty in past 12 months in area where

    respondents live (% all respondents)

    Figure 5.31 Perceived proportion of population in area living in poverty in 2009 (%

    respondents)

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 3

    Figure 5.32 Perceived proportion of population in area living in poverty in 2011 (%

    respondents)

    Figure 5.33 Change in proportion of residents believing that about 30% or more of

    residents live in poverty (2009-2011)

    Figure 6.1 GDP Resilience of Regions (NUTS 2)

    Figure 6.2 Employment Resilience of Regions (NUTS 2)

    Figure 6.3 GDP vs Employment Resilience

    Figure 6.4 Relative regional resilience

    Figure 6.5 Speed of recovery to pre-crisis peak employment levels (early 1990s,

    NUTS 2 regions)

    Figure 7.1 Themes and domains of EKOSGEN index

    Figure 8.1 Reason for part-time working for employees (Estonia, 2009)

    Figure 8.2 Examples of local promotion: Ireland and Wales

    LIST OF MAPS

    Map 4.1 Resistant and Hysteretic Regions

    Map 5.1 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by GDP 2006

    Map 5.2 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by Employment 2006

    Map 5.3 NUTS2 Regions in Recession be GDP 2007

    Map 5.4 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by Employment 2007

    Map 5.5 Countries in Recession by GDP 2007

    Map 5.6 Countries in Recession by Employment 2007

    Map 5.7 Countries in Recession by GDP 2008

    Map 5.8 Countries in Recession by Employment 2008

    Map 5.9 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by Employment 2008

    Map 5.10 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by GDP 2008

    Map 5.11 Countries in Recession by GDP 2009

    Map 5.12 Countries in Recession by Employment 2009

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 4

    Map 5.13 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by GDP 2009

    Map 5.14 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by Employment 2009

    Map 5.15 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by GDP 2010

    Map 5.16 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by Employment 2010

    Map 5.17 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by GDP 2011

    Map 5.18 NUTS2 Regions in Recession by Employment 2011

    Map 5.19 Employment Loss During the Crisis

    Map 5.20 Regions with Unemployment Rates Below 4%

    Map 5.22 Youth Unemployment

    Map 6.1 Resilience by Employment by Country: Resistant

    Map 6.2 Resilience by GDP by Country: Resistant

    Map 6.3 Resilience by GDP by Country: Recovered

    Map 6.4 Resilience by Employment by Country: Recovered

    Map 6.5 Resilience by GDP by Country: Upturn not recovered

    Map 6.6 Resilience by Employment by Country: Upturn not recovered

    Map 6.7 Resilience by GDP by Country: No upturn not recovered

    Map 6.8 Resilience by Employment by Country: No upturn not recovered

    Map 6.9 Employment and GDP Resilience Compared

    Map 6.10 NUTS3 Resilience

    Map 6.11 Resilience by GDP by NUTS2 Region: Resistant

    Map 6.12 Resilience by GDP by NUTS2 Region: Recovered

    Map 6.13 Resilience by GDP by NUTS2 Region: Upturn not recovered

    Map 6.14 Resilience by GDP by NUTS2 Region: No upturn not recovered

    Map 6.15 Resilience by Employment by NUTS2 Region: Resistant

    Map 6.16 Resilience by Employment by NUTS2 Region: Recovered

    Map 6.17 Resilience by Employment by NUTS2 Region: Upturn not recovered

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 5

    Map 6.18 Resilience by Employment by NUTS2 Region: No upturn not recovered

    Map 6.19 Employment Resilience

    Map 6.20 GDP Resilience

    Map 6.21 Relative Regional Resilience

    Map 6.22 Coastal Territories and Resilience

    Map 6.23 Mountain Territories and Resilience

    Map 6.24 Border Territories and Resilience

    Map 6.25 Island Territories and Resilience

    Map 7.1 Resilience score of European economies

    Map 7.2 Regional Resilience in the US

    List of tables

    Box 1.1 Defining economic crisis

    Table 4.1 International support for Member States

    Table 4.2 Economic downturn in the ESPON space (Millenial downturn)

    Table 5.1 Employment decline across territorial groupings (%, peak year to

    2011)

    Table 5.2 Duration of crisis across territorial groupings (peak year to 2011)

    Table 5.3 Steepness of employment decline (%, peak year to 2011)

    Table 5.4 Employment change by sector (2008-11)

    Table 5.5 Regional rates of unemployment (2007 and 2011)

    Table 5.6 Change in peak regional unemployment and disparities within states

    (2007-11)

    Table 5.7 Households ability to keep up with household bills and credit

    commitments (%)

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 6

    Table 5.8 Impact of Crisis on Member States (2007-11)

    Table 6.1 Employment Resilience of NUTS 3 Territories

    Table 6.2 Relative Regional Resilience: outlying cases

    Table 6.3 Urban Rural Type and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.4 Metro Type and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.5 Coastal Regions and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.6 Mountain Regions and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.7 Border Regions and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.8 Industrial Restructuring and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.9 Changing Industry Share (1997-2007) and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.10 Regional Innovation Performance and Regional Resilience

    Table 6.11 Cohesion Policy Eligibility (2007-13) and Regional Resilience

    Table 7.1 Indicators of national economic resilience

    Table 7.2 Indicators of Resilience Capacity

    Table 7.3 Indicators of Components of Resilience

    Table 7.4 FTEE, average growth over 8 years (cgr_FTEE, period =8)

    Table 7.5 Unemployment rate, level (cl_UR)

    Table 7.6 Change of the unemployment rate over 7 years (cd_UR, period=7)

    Table 7.7 Average unemployment rate over 7 years (cma_UR, period=7)

    Table 7.8 Participation rate, level (cl_PR)

    Table 7.9 Share of employment in the agricultural sector in total employment,

    level (cl_STR_ESAB)

    Table 7.10 Employment in the construction sector, level (cl_ESF)

    Table 7.11 Change in the number of employed persons in construction over 7

    years (cd_ESF, period=7)

    Table 7.12 Share of employment in the construction sector in total employment,

    level (cl_STR_ESF)

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 7

    Table 7.13 Share of employment in the services sector in total employment, level

    (cl_STR_ESGS)

    Table 7.14 Change in the share of employment in the services sector in total

    employment over 7 years (cd_STR_ESGS, period=7)

    Table 7.15 Household disposable income, average growth over 7 years

    (cgr_HHDI)

    Table 7.16 Educational attainment, level (cl_EA)

    Table 7.17 Educational attainment, average growth over 4 years (cgr_EA,

    period=4)

    Table 7.18 Timing of the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.19a Labour Market Characteristics, employment and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.19b Labour Market Characteristics, GDP and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.20a Demographic Characteristics, employment and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.20b Demographic Characteristics, GDP and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.21a Industrial Composition, Employment and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.21b Industrial Composition, GDP and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.22a Migration, Accessibility, employment and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.22b Migration, Accessibility, GDP and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.23a Capital, Investment, employment and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.23b Capital, Investment, GDP and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.24a Utilisation of Information Technology, Employment and the Economic

    Crisis

    Table 7.24b Utilisation of Information Technology, GDP and the Economic Crisis

    Table 7.25a Utilisation of Science and Technology, employment and the Economic

    Crisis

    Table 7.25b Utilisation of Science and Technology, employment and the Economic

    Crisis

    Table 7.26a Income, competitiveness, employment and Economic Crisis

    Table 7.26b Income, competitiveness, GDP and Economic Crisis

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 8

    Table 7.27a Regional Innovation, employment and Economic Crisis

    Table 7.27b Regional Innovation, GDP and Economic Crisis

    Table 7.28 Accounting for Response to Economic Crisis

    Table 7.29 Accounting for the Resilience to Economic Crisis

    Table 8.1 Structural composition of Wales vs UK

    Annex B – Data coverage and list of missing data

    Data coverage

    Country Code NUTS III Data availability

    Employment Data Availability

    GDP Data Availability

    AL No N 95-09 N 96 - 09

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 9

    AT Yes 90 - 11 90 – 11

    BE Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    BG Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    CH No 95 - 11 95 – 11

    CY Yes N 90 - 11 90 – 11

    CZ Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    DE Yes 90 - 11 90 – 11

    DK Yes 90 - 11 90 – 11

    EE Yes N 90 - 11 90 – 11

    ES Yes 90 – 11 90 - 11

    FL Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    FR Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    GR Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    HR No 00, 08, 11 00 – 08 N 95 – 11

    HU Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    IE Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    IS No N 95 - 10 N 90 – 11

    IT Yes 90 - 11 90 – 11

    LI No No Data No data

    LT Yes N 90 - 11 N 90 - 11

    LU Yes N 90 – 11 N 90 - 11

    LV Yes N 90 – 11 N 90 – 11

    MK No No Data No Data

    MT Yes N 90 - 11 N 90 – 11

    NL Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    NO Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    PL Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    PT Yes 90 - 11 90 – 11

    RO Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    RS No N 04 – 10 N 04 – 10

    SE Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    SI Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    SK Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    TR No No Data No Data

    UK Yes 90 – 11 90 – 11

    N=Only national data available

    Missing data

    No data available: Turkey

    Macedonia

    Lichtenstein

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 10

    Only national data available: Serbia

    Albania

    Iceland

    Luxembourg

    Latvia

    Lithuania

    Malta

    Only national employment data: Cyprus

    Estonia

    Annex C - ECR2 Glossary of acronyms

    CAS - Complex adaptive system

    CEO - Chief executive officer

    DEI – Greece's public energy corporation

    ECB- European Central Bank

  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 11

    EEG – Evolutionary economic geography

    EFSF – European Financial Stability Facility

    GDP – Gross Domestic Product

    HEI – Higher education institution

    HRST - Human Resources devoted to Science and Technology

    IMF - International Monetary Fund

    KET - Key Enabling Technology

    NACE A - primary industries

    NACE B-E - manufacturing industries

    NACE F - construction sector

    NACE J - ICT

    NACE L - real estate sector

    NACE M-N - Professional, scientific and technical services

    NACE R-U - Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services

    NACE O- Q - public sector employment sectors

    NICE – Non inflationary continuous expansion

    NUTS - Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics

    OECD – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

    RMBS - residential mortgage-backed securities

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  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 14

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  • ESPON ECR2 SCIENTIFIC REPORT 16

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    Annex E – List of data produced

    Please see affiliated excel document for data.

    Resilience outcomes following 1990s downturn

    Relative Regional Resilience (R3) current cases

    Economic resilience employment NUTS 2

    Economic resilience employment National

    Economic resilience GDP NUTS 2

    Economic resilience GDP National

    Economic resilience comparison of employment and GDP NUTS 2

    Regional economic resilience NUTS3