annex 1: key deliverables for the four areas of work · 2008-10-30 · task 1: management and...

EC4MACS Third Progress Report: 30/06/2008

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Annex 1: Key Deliverables for the four areas of work

Methodology Data Dissemination Policy application

2007 Continuous Improvements 31.07 1st progress report

31.07 EC4MACS website

First Steering Committee Meeting

2008 31.01: 2nd progress report 30.4: Interim documentation on methodology 31.07: 3rd progress report 31.07: Full report on methodology

Data collection

31.07: Preliminary results of critical loads for Natura 2000 area, on dynamic modeling of N-impacts and assessment of biodiversity

31.10: Documentation of EU-FASOM/GAINS linkage

31.10. Consultation on methodology over Internet

First quarter: 2nd Steering Committee meeting

2009 31.01: 4th progress report

31.07: 5th progress report

31.07: Mid-term report

31.7. Revised modeling methodology documentation

31.1.: Documentation of interim data 30.4. Internet access 31.10. Methodology workshop

First quarter: 3rd Steering Committee meeting

30.4. Interim assessment report (baseline development and policy range

31.07: Full report on interim baselines and scope for policy measures


30.4. Report on Uncertainty

31.07: 7th progress report 31.07: Report on uncertainties (task 2)

31.10: Full report on uncertainties

31.10: Report on final methodology of ecosystems impact assessment

Bilateral consultations on data 31.7. Workshop on baseline

First quarter: 4th Steering Committee meeting

EC4MACS Third Progress Report: 30/06/2008

2

Methodology Data Dissemination Policy application


31.01: Full report on methodological description

31.01: Final estimates, results and indicators (task 3) 31.01: Report on final modelling methodology

31.07: 9th progress report

30.09: Full report on modeling technology

31.10: Full report on policy scenarios and their macroeconomic impacts

30.4.:Documentation of data for final assessment

First quarter: 5th Steering Committee meeting 31.7.: Final report on baseline projections and scenario 31.10.: Final policy scenarios

2012 31.01: 10th progress report 31.01: Analytical report on costs and policies

30.04: Final report

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ANNEX 2: Partnership Structure EC4MACS as of 30/06/2008

Beneficiary IIASA

Task 1

Management and reporting to EU Commission

Beneficiary IIASA Task 2 Integrated assessment of air pollution and greenhouse gases Task 4 Atmospheric Dispersion (on the basis of data of the Norwegian Meteorological Institute) Task 10 Dissemination

Partner 3AEA Technology Partially Task 8 Benefit Assessment •Development of Modelling tool for quantifying benefits •Review of information on climate change impacts

Partner 4Metroeconomica Partially Task 8 Benefit Assessment • Review of new information on health impacts • Valuation

Partner 8EuroCare Partially Task 7 Agricultural Scenarios •Baselines Projection

Partner 2 PBL / MNP (institutional structure change in June 2008) Task 3 Ecosystems impact assessment

Partner 5 LAT/AUTH Task 6 Transport Scenarios

Partner 7Uni Bonn Partially Task 7 Agricultural Scenarios •Policy Scenarios

Partner 6NTUA Task 5 Energy Scenarios Task 9 Macroeconomic Impacts

Subcontractor: EMRC / Mike

Holland

Partially Task 8 Benefit Assessment

Co-ordination

Development of Methods

Task 4 N/A Initially planned to be subcontracted to MET.NO but turned out to be ineligible institution. Now new partner is being sought

ANNEX 3: GANTT-chart Indicate the overall project development and the planned activities by using the following chart/table or a similar presentation

Tasks/ Activities

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Proposed Kick-

Off

-Steer

Com

- web

site

-Proj

Meet --

Steer

Com

-Proj

Meet --

Steer

Com

-Proj

Meet -

Steer

Com

Proj

Meet -

Steer

Com

Overall project schedule

Actual

Task 1: Management and Reporting to EU

Proposed - Inc

rep

- PR1

- PR2

Interim

Metho

dolog

- PR3 Inter-

net

Cons

ultat.

- PR4 - PR5

-MTR

PR6 PR7 PR8 PR9 - PR10 Final

Rep -

Laym

en)(

Actual

Task 2: Integrated Assess. of AP and GHG

Proposed Data

Interfa

ce

- Pro-

jections

Interim

Metho

dolog

Full

Metho

dolog

Docu:

Gains

/Faso

m

Revis

Model

Metho

Uncert

ainty

Rep

Full

Unc

Rep

Full

Rep

Metho

Rep

Model

techn

Rep

Costs /

polic

Actual

Task 3: Ecosystems Impact Assessment

Proposed Data

Interfa

ce

- Pro-

jections

Interim

Metho

dolog

Prelimi

naries Rep

Ecosystems

Final Estimates

Actual

Task 4: Atmospheric Dispersion

Proposed

Actual

Start: 01/02/07

Project start date: 01 February 2007 Project end date: 31 January 2012 Interim report date: 31 July 2009

Planned timeline Periods passed Achieved Milestone/Deliverable

30/04/12

31/01/12

Clarification needed: Who delivers task 4

31/01/12

31/01/12

Interim report: 31/07/09

5

Tasks/ Activities

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1T 2T 3T 1T 1T 1T 1T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T 1T 2T 3T 4T

Task 5: Energy Scenarios

Proposed Data

Interfa

ce

- Pro-

jections

Interim

Metho

dolog

Actual

Task 6: Transport Scenarios

Proposed Data

Interfa

ce

- Pro-

jections

Interim

Metho

dolog

Actual

Task 7: Agricultural Scenarios

Proposed Data

Interfa

ce

- Pro-

jections

Interim

Metho

dolog

Actual

Task 8: Benefit Assessment

Proposed Data

Interfa

ce

Interim

Metho

dolog

Actual

Task 9: Macroeconomic Impacts

Proposed Data

Interfa

ce

Interim

Metho

dolog

Full Rep Impacts

Actual

Task 10: Dissemination

Proposed

Actual

31/01/12

31/01/12

31/01/12

31/01/12

31/01/12

31/01/12

Project start date: 01 February 2007 Project end date: 31 January 2012 Interim report date: 31 July 2009

Planned timeline Periods passed

Achieved Milestone/Deliverable

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ANNEX 4: 7.1 Achievements in the period 01 January 2008 to 30 June 2008

Delivery Date Task Task Number

Deliverable / Milestone /

Finance-Admin Responsible

Achieved ?

31/01/2008 2nd Progress report 1 (Management & Reporting to

EU) D IIASA 08/02/2008

31/01/2008 Draft data delivered to GAINS 3 Ecosystems impact

assessment M CCE Yes

31/01/2008 Draft input data delivered to GAINS 4 Atmospheric dispersion M

No longer applicable (MET

NORWAY) Yes

31/01/2008

Energy projections quantifying the possible range of policy developments delivered to GAINS 5 Energy Scenarios M NTUA Yes

31/01/2008

Transport projections quantifying the possible range of policy developments delivered to GAINS 6 Transport Scenarios M LAT/AUTh Yes

31/01/2008

Agricultural projections quantifying the possible range of policy developments delivered to GAINS 7 Agricultural Scenarios M EuroCare Yes

31/01/2008 Delivery of Financial Information to IIASA (Q3+4/2007) Financial / Administrative F/A All partners

Yes, but needs some additions

and improvements

15/02/2008 Meeting of the consortium on modelling progress and interim data

1 (Management & Reporting to EU) M IIASA

Yes, 03+04/04/2008 (combined with

NIAM)

15/02/2008 Second meeting of the Steering Committee 1 (Management & Reporting to

EU) M IIASA Yes, on

14/05/2008

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Delivery Date Task Task Number

Deliverable / Milestone /

Finance-Admin Responsible

Achieved ?

30/04/2008 Minutes of the second meeting of the Steering Committee

1 (Management & Reporting to EU) D IIASA

Yes (see Annex 7)

30/04/2008 Interim report on modelling methodology 2 (Integrated assessment of AP

and GHG) D IIASA Yes

(see Annex 8)

30/04/2008 Report on interim methodology 3 Ecosystems impact

assessment D CCE Yes

(see Annex 8)

30/04/2008

Reporting of CCE results to Member States and Party representatives in the Working Group on Effects of the CLRTAP.

3 Ecosystems impact assessment M CCE

Yes

30/04/2008 Publication of CCE Status Report 3 Ecosystems impact

assessment M CCE Yes

30/04/2008

Interim report on methodological improvements on atmospheric dispersion modelling and source allocation calculations – Summary of improvements in atmospheric dispersion modelling appropriate for scientific and technical review 4 Atmospheric dispersion D

(MET NORWAY)

Currently N/A (No partner for

task 4)

30/04/2008

Presentation of feasibility study on the treatment of urban air quality, comparison with CITY DELTA results 4 Atmospheric dispersion M

(MET NORWAY)

Currently N/A (No partner for

task 4)

30/04/2008 Interim report on modelling methodology for consultation with stakeholders 5 Energy Scenarios D NTUA

Yes (see Annex 8)

30/04/2008 Interim report on modelling methodology for consultation with stakeholders 6 Transport Scenarios D LAT/AUTh

Yes (see Annex 8)

30/04/2008 Interim report on modelling methodology for consultation with stakeholders 7 Agricultural Scenarios D EuroCare

Yes (see Annex 8)

30/04/2008 Interim report on modelling methodology for consultation with stakeholders 8 Benefit Assessment D

AEA Technology /

MetroeEonomica

Yes (see Annex 8)

30/04/2008 Interim report on modelling methodology for consultation with stakeholders 9 Macro-Economic Impacts D NTUA

Yes (see Annex 8)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Registration number: ZVR 524808900

ANNEX 5

Tables: Delays of Implementation / Implementation of Additional Requests by

the Commission

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ANNEX 5: Delays of Implementation:

Item Due Date Reason for non-achievement

Expected Achievement

Responsible

1. Final decision on methodology for model linkage

31/07/2007 It seemed worthwhile to incorporate some recent important scientific developments (e.g., in the field of land use emissions/biofuels) which became available only in the last year.

All decisions on model interfaces are taken by now (July 2008).

IIASA and involved project partners

2. Improved interface of all models with GAINS completed

31/07/2007 Dependent on the delayed decision on model interfaces, software implementation is delayed accordingly.

First versions of all interfaces operational by now, final improvements will be done until December 2008

IIASA and involved project partners

3. Data interface between CAPRI/CAPSI and GAINS

31/07/2007 Same reason as for item 1 and 2

Full interface by December 2008

IIASA and UniBonn

4. Data interface with GAINS 31/07/2007 Same reason as for item 1 and 2

Full interface by December 2008

IIASA

5. Policy Analysis (Sub-task / task 2) according to application

Non-specified The date (2007/2008) in the table is a typo (should read 2009), since it refers to the interim assessment which is due in 2009.

2009, together with interim assessment

IIASA and all project partners

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Further Requests by the Commission (Letters of 14/04/2008 and 08/05/2008 ):

Item Accomplished Completion by:

Responsible

1. Draft table showing delays Yes, herewith Done IIASA 2. Ger Klaasen (DG ENV) to set up targets in writing Not received as yet unspecified Ger Klaasen 3. Establish small group to translate Commissions targets Dependent on delivery of

point 2 unspecified IIASA

4. Link from project website to LIFE website Yes, see www.ec4macs.eu Done IIASA 5. Assess TREMOVE impact This is now fully

accomplished. Documents describing the interfaces between PRIMES, TREMOVE and GAINS are available now and accepted by all partners. Work is underway to implement the software interface.

December 2008

Transport Cluster

6. Questionnaire Finishing touches and increased capacity of server needed

August 08 IIASA

7. Update Website Diagram Yes Done IIASA 8. Appoint a moderator to bring forward joint solutions Yes Done Moderators:

Wilfried Winiwarter@IIASA for agriculture, Janusz Cofala @ IIASA for transport,

11International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Registration number: ZVR 524808900

ANNEX 6

Minutes: Second Annual Project Meeting03 + 04 April 2008


International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Tel: +43 2236 807 0Fax: +43 2236 71313

E-mail: [email protected]: www.iiasa.ac.at

LIFE III – EC4MACS

Minutes

EC4MACS Annual Meeting (03/04 April 2008) The meeting was held at IIASA, Laxenburg on April 3 and 4, 2008 and it has been linked to another meeting Network of National Integrated Assessment Modellers (NIAM) starting on 02 April 2008 with 40 participants from 15 countries attending. The aim of the newly created NIAM Network is to develop a platform for scientists involved in “National Scale Integrated Assessment Modeling” in order to identify common issues and problems, especially those linked to the GAINS model, or other European scale models such as PRIMES, TREMOVE and CAPRI used for projected energy programmes, and transport and agricultural activities in Europe. By linking the NIAM Network meeting with the EC4MACS annual meeting, created an opportunity to bring together European scale modelling activities, to pose questions and to explore common problems, synergies and opportunities for the benefit of both groups, the NIAM Network and EC4MACS.

The actual EC4MACS meeting (April 3+4, 2008) started with the combined conference of the NIAM Network (40 participants) and the EC4MACS consortium consisting of 27 participants representing all project partners, a representative from DG-ENV C.5, two representative from JRC-IES, a representative from JRC-IPTS and a

NIAM Network Meeting 02 April 2008

Combined Conference 03 April 2008

EC4MACS Annual Meeting 04 April 2008


representative of the LIFE monitoring team. On April 4, the EC4MACS meeting was attended exclusively by the 27 individuals actively involved in EC4MACS. The list of participants and agenda is attached.

April 3, 2008

Welcome and introduction The meeting was opened by Markus Amann, the scientific coordinator of EC4MACS, who welcomed the participants and introduced to overall objectives of the EC4MACs project. Ger Klassen from DG-ENV C.5 outlined the forthcoming policy needs to which EC4MACS should deliver useful contributions. He emphasized the usefulness of the achievements of the first year of EC4MACS (i.e., an improved model interface between GAINS and PRIMES) for the recent policy analyses for the Commission (i.e., the Climate and Energy Package, the Communication on Carbon Capture and Storage, the revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive, the Communication on CO2 and cars, the IPPC revision and the review of the ETS system). Work conducted under EC4MACS that reduced the turnover time between PRIMES and GAINS scenarios by a factor of four, allowed a much larger set of policy alternatives to be analyzed. Through supporting EC4MACS, DG-ENV hopes for

• better understanding of interactions GHGes and air pollution,

• Better policy making linking policy makers with modeling community (Steering Group: ENV/JRC/ENTR/TREN/AGRI/RTD), and

• For a possible creation of a Centre for Global Atmospheric Analysis (similar to Center for Global Analyis MIT)(http://web.mit.edu/cgcs).

For the future, contributions from EC4MACS would be most welcome in the following fields:

• Internalizing transport externalities

• Revision of the NEC Directive

• Analysis of SO2 and NOX emission trading

• (IPPC+NEC related) revision VOC paints/petrol stations

• Ship emissions (IMO)

• Post-2020 global climate analysis (co-benefits)

• Energy efficiency

• Carbon Sinks/Forests

In addition, EC4MACS is expected to contribute to the review of the air quality legislation in 2013, which implies that model results must be ready in 2012 (this is fully in line with the EC4MACS work plan). In particular, EC4MACS should analyze the following aspects:

• Modeling and experimental observations

• Review of the air quality objectives, i.e., assess whether existing air quality values are still appropriate

• Assessment of current and expected compliance

• Assessment of practical problems and improvements in implementation by Member States.

These issues will require insight into the following specific questions: • Air quality limit values appropriate?

o Toxicity of PM components

o Critical levels vegetation (dose response functions?)

• Current and expected compliance


o Impacts of revised NEC Directive on PM and ozone

o Impacts of community measures

o Better understanding of local emission road transport (measurements)

o Intelligent measurement of air quality/compliance (emissions and measurements)

o Appraisal of MS plans/programs

• Detailed look at ozone (EEA, HTAP, ozone/climate)

o Practical problems and inconsistencies

o Placement monitors air quality, treatment natural sources consistently

• Review of NEC

o Progress towards new ceilings

o Progress linking environment/health/ecosystem indicators + stronger link with observations

Overview of the workplan Markus Amann introduced the five years work plan of EC4MACS as presented in the project proposal. In general, different priorities can be identified for each year of the project (Table 1). While there are strict dates for the deliverables to the Commission, there is some flexibility in the work plan to address relevant aspects that could emerge in the future during the policy process. The Steering Committee, which will meet in April 2008 again, will advice on priorities.

Table 1: Priority areas for the annual work plans of EC4MACS

2007 Methodological improvements

2008 Data collection

Feedbacks on methodological improvements

2009 Interim assessment

Methodology workshop

2010 Uncertainty assessment

Bilateral consultations on input data

2011 Final assessment

In general, EC4MACS provides resources more for linking of existing models and for making them accepted by stakeholders, and not necessarily for completely new model development. The work plan foresees an interim assessment in 2009, which should highlight recent model improvements to establish credibility of the modelling tools among stakeholders. The final assessment should then address actual policy questions and deliver input to the policy process. The embedding into global developments will be accomplished through interfacing with the TM5 and POLES models of the JRCs.

Presentations of modelling tools Following this general introduction, all partners introduced their respective modelling tools. Presentations addressed the tools that are supposed to be integrated into the EC4MACS model suite and provided very brief descriptions of the modelling methodology. Presenters summarized the progress made in 2007 under EC4MACS and expanded on the interactions with national experts. These included (a) information that is available to national teams and that would be most useful for an improvement of Europe-wide models, (b) methodologies and


data that are used for Europe-wide models and that would be most useful for national modelling teams, and (c) how such information exchange could be organized in the most effective way. (Agenda is attached). In general, the offers of EC4MACS to share data with national teams were most welcome. National modelling teams appreciated the forthcoming release of methodology documentation (planned for October 2008) and input data (January 2009) and expressed strong interest for involvement in the review of methodology and data. It was decided that NIAM participants will be kept informed about all achievements of EC4MACS, and will be actively involved in the review process.

In-depth discussions on specific areas After the introduction of progress achieved by the EC4MACS partners, two sessions addressed two specific key areas where harmonization of ongoing modelling activities will be essential for maximizing the policy relevance of EC4MACS. Wilfried Winiwarter chaired a discussion on Land use/biofuels/ agricultural production/ emissions from soils/agricultural activities, where several EC4MACS models (CAPRI-PRIMES-DNDC-EUFASOM-GAINS) provide relevant information but necessarily based on consistent assumptions. After outlining the issues at stake, the discussion focused on possible approaches for reaching internal consistency. It was agreed to establish a sub-group of EC4MACS that would continue discussion during the coming year so that in 2009 a coherent approach is used by EC4MACS. The discussion among the European-scale modellers of the EC4MACS team were followed with interest by the national experts, who are facing similar problems in their assessments for individual countries. The offer of EC4MACS to provide an example of a coherent modelling approach to these issues as well as quality-controlled data sets was most welcome by national teams. Janusz Cofala chaired a discussion on the modelling of transport emissions. In the past, PRIMES and TREMOVE have produced their own transport demand projections, based on different methodologies that made a direct comparison difficult. It was decided at the meeting to join efforts and develop a combined modelling approach between PRIMES, TREMOVE and GAINS, in which each model would focus on the areas for which it is best designed, and link to information of other areas to other models, which are better suited. Thereby, PRIMES would produce overall transport and fuel demand projections, TREMOVE would calculate emissions based on a detailed representation of fleet composition, driving patterns, and emission control technologies, and GAINS would assess the overall cost-effectiveness of emission control packages. It was decided to establish a sub-group of the involved modelling teams to agree on the detailed technical approach. National modelling teams welcomed the envisaged harmonization of transport emissions modelling, since inconsistencies originating from the earlier approach had led to considerable confusion in earlier policy discussions. Finally, in preparation for the 2009/2010 focus of EC4MACS on uncertainties, Jean-Paul Hettelingh moderated a brainstorming session on how uncertainties could be best addressed within the EC4MACS work plan. He introduced the approach to uncertainty handling adopted by IPCC and illustrated potential implications for the EC4MACS work. The ensuing discussion raised fundamental questions on the purpose of uncertainty analysis within EC4MACS, highlighting the importance to identify and respond to policy relevant-questions about model uncertainties. It was decided to continue the discussion in more depth at the next annual EC4MACS meeting.

April 4, 2008 The second day of the annual meeting of EC4MACS saw a closed session of the EC4MACS members to discuss the next steps in the work plan and administrational issues, and parallel sessions of the sub-groups on agriculture and transport.

Information on Monitoring Requirements Thomas Mayer (PARTICIP) presented information on monitoring with a focus on objectives and deliverables on which evaluation of the project will be based. Regarding the transparency of the project/models suggestions how to improve the descriptions of the models on the website were presented.

Financial, Administrative & Contractual Issues Hans Benzinger (IIASA) summed up what went well in the first year and what could be improved on administrative side. He also introduced participants to Correspondence of the Commission and to additional requests and proposals made by the Commission. He thanked the group for their contribution to complete some lengthy processes such as the closure of the Consortium Agreement, passing on the initial payment to partners according to their share and getting necessary detailed information to establish a detailed total project budget


covering the full duration of the project. He also reminded what is needed in the next 12 months to achieve the milestones and deliverables according to workplan.

Activities for each Partner in the next 12 months With respect to the work plan, the main deliverables for all modeling teams were identified as follows:

• All teams submit their methodology reports submitted to IIASA (end of May)

• All teams submit their progress report to IIASA by Mid July

• IIASA will design a web site on the Internet consultation about the EC4MACS methodology, put all methodology reports on the site, open the site at Oct 31, 2008, and invite reviews and comments from interested parties.

• By end of January 2009, the latest data sets used by all models will be made available over the Internet. While this objective was accepted in principle by all participants, questions remained about publication of confidential data (e.g., plant-specific information) which will not be possible on a legal basis. It was agreed that in such cases aggregated data would be made available, which do not allow tracing back data for individual units. It remains to be decided whether for all models data will be available directly from the central EC4MACS web site (www.ec4macs.eu) or from the home pages of the respective models, with appropriate links from the EC4MACS web site.

• All participants considered the interaction with national modeling teams as very productive and expressed the wish to also hold the next annual EC4MACS meeting back-to-back with the NIAM network.

The minutes of the meetings of the subgroups are attached and available at the EC4MACS web site: www.ec4macs.eu .



Laxenburg, 04 April 2008

Meeting on harmonizing agricultural models within the EC4MACS project

Participants: Arno Becker (Univ. Bonn), Peter Witzke (EUROCARE), Petr Havlik (IIASA-FOR), Uwe Schneider (Univ. Hamburg), Adrian Leip (JRC-IES), John “Mac” Callaway (RISØ, observing), Wolfgang Schöpp (IIASA-APD), Susanne Wagner (IIASA-APD), Wilfried Winiwarter (IIASA-APD) Not represented: National Technical University of Athens/NTUA (apologies have been received) This meeting was organized back-to-back to the CC-TAME (NIAM) kick-off meeting. It presents another opportunity to the EC4MACS agricultural modellers to exchange their views and understand the respective direction of work to take. Tasks completed since last meeting: EuroCare report has been submitted as a deliverable to EC4MACS (early May). The report describes some linkages within the agricultural models of EC4MACS. Those referring to EU-FASOM seem to be covered adequately, taking advantage of the synergies with CC-TAMES. Feedback from PRIMES is required. NTUA distributed two reports describing the biomass module of PRIMES which were welcomed in the group. Feedback on these reports from CAPRI to PRIMES is required. Discussion needs also arise between PRMES and EU-FASOM: consistency improvements are desired, and there is definitely need for discussion (e.g., bioenergy supply functions). Ideally, links between EU-FASOM and PRIMES (both ways) should be forged. Both CAPRI and EU-FASOM will contact PRIMES concerning their biomass module. Bilateral contacts and information exchange has been performed between GAINS and CAPRI (Zig Klimont and Wolfgang Britz), between GAINS and EU-FASOM (Ingo Huck has been visiting and discussed with Wolfgang and Wilfried) as well as between GAINS and DNDC (Wilfried and Adrian). Further such contacts are encouraged – no documentation is needed but information definitely will be welcome. Advancements on specific model links:

CAPRI-PRIMES: See above. Information exchange needs to be facilitated along the descriptions prepared. The respective partners need to organize themselves. Moreover, linkages of PRIMES to EU-FASOM need to be identified, which again will involve the two respective teams.

FASOM-CAPRI: In order to integrate CAPRI data into FASOM response functions will be used. Dynamic exchange of data in the sense of iterative loops between both models is not foreseen. Both modelling groups cooperate also in CC-TAME and thus will link their activities also over another channel.

CAPRI-GAINS: The respective definitions of animal categories of the two models have been compared – this can be finalized bilaterally (Susanne and Peter). CAPRI contains information on animal numbers only, not on housing type or


ways of manure handling: distinction between liquid systems and solid systems is performed on the basis of GAINS data only.

FASOM-GAINS: FASOM can deliver housing information (solid systems / liquid systems /ventilated vs. non-ventilated housing) – if good exogenous data were available, which there are not. At this stage much is based on GAINS, it is then not useful to return this information back into GAINS. Further work in FASOM is done by Ingo who will feed back the status of his work to GAINS.

DNDC-CAPRI: Interaction between modelling groups is well established already. DNDC results have been compiled into a meta-model which – within the range it has been established for – provides CAPRI with soil nitrogen balances (N2O and N2 emissions, leaching). New CAPRI results for use in DNDC (base year 2004) are currently being developed (foreseen for July-August) and will be transferred when available.

DNDC-GAINS: A list of requirements has been prepared by GAINS which ultimately would lead to yet another meta-model. Requirements have been prioritized, and DNDC will provide results of priorities 1-3 (default, linearity check and “precision farming” avoiding excess nitrogen application) so that GAINS can integrate results by next April. In addition to model links described above, a FASOM-PRIMES link needs to be created

Open topics No open topics, only open tasks (see underlined sections above and below) Uwe Schneider recommends to test model linkages along simple scenarios, and compare a base case e.g. with a biofuel scenario that push up shares of biofuels in Europe to 20%. Wilfried and Wolfgang agree to prepare a suggestion on such a scenario, for later refinement. Feedback and interaction with PRIMES required – PRIMES should suggest an appropriate communication strategy.

Deliverables A list of the responsibilities of EC4MACS towards the European Commission was compiled by Hans Benzinger and distributed to all participants. Reports on the work package “Agricultural Scenarios” are to be coordinated by EuroCare. One report (“deliverable”) and one dataset (“milestone”) will be due in January 2009. IIASA-APD (responsible for the “general” reporting) and EuroCare may contact participants for specific contributions.

Next meeting The next annual EC4MACS meeting is scheduled for April 2009. Agricultural modellers will have a side meeting at that occasion. As of now, it is expected that no additional meetings will be necessary before that (see one exception, below). Modellers are urged, however, to use other opportunities (as here in the CC-TAME context) to personal interaction. It may be needed to set up a specific meeting of no more than two or three groups participating in order to involve PRIMES. But this will depend on the communication strategy suggested by PRIMES

Wilfried Winiwarter, June 18, 2008



Laxenburg, 04 April 2008

Meeting on harmonizing transport projections

within the EC4MACS project

Participants: ICCS/NTUA (PRIMES model) LAT/AUT (TREMOVE, COPERT model) IIASA (GAINS)

Items discussed/agreed:

1. Models will be linked through appropriate interfaces. Most important parameters will be calculated and transferred to other team for the basic set of scenarios (e.g., PRIMES baseline, PRIMES Climate and Energy Package). These scenarios might result in different penetration of control measures, different fuel efficiency improvement, and different implied emission factors. Each model will perform calculations within its area of competence using parameters estimated for the scenario, which is closest to the range investigated by the model in the actual run. For the basic set of scenarios models may be run in a loop to include feedbacks from other model(s).

2. For the needs of the EC4MACS model system the demand module of TREMOVE will be replaced by

the demand generated in the extended PRIMES model. LAT will create a stock/emissions model (later called SEM), which will be linked to PRIMES. Both models will be calibrated using historic data (1995 to 2005) on transport activities and vehicle stock from the FLEETS Project.

3. New demand module in PRIMES will deliver information on transport activities (vehicle types, number

and turnover, passenger km, ton km, fuel consumption) to both: SEM and GAINS in aggregation necessary. If important, possible feedback information from the SEM module will be provided to PRIMES and recalculations will take place. These feedbacks may include: details on structure of vehicles (small, medium, large), options for fuel efficiency improvement, load factors, costs of control measures (structural measures, EURO stages, costs related to traveling time).

4. Within one week, ICCS will prepare a note on a new structure of the transport module in PRIMES and

distribute it to other partners. Based on the note, final decision will be made about activity data structure and flows.

5. Important gaps were identified in data availability for non-road mobile sources. Improvement is

possible in four areas: aviation, rail, inland waterways and maritime activities. In case of aviation, LAT will use information from EUROCONTROL and estimate emissions from aviation (LTO cycles and cruising), separately for domestic aviation and for international flights. ICCS will implement information on fuels used by domestic aviation based on a recent amendment in EUROSTAT statistics. For other sectors results from the EXTREMIS project will be used. LAT will look at possibilities to improve information on other non-road sources (e.g., small engines in households, gardening, forestry),


mobile sources in construction and industry, as well as on agricultural tractors and machines.

6. Each modeling team will determine what types of data are necessary and will send requests to other modelers on data format.

7. Data should cover historic years (1990 – 2005) and projection period up to 2030 in five years intervals.

8. LTU will provide to IIASA detailed data on activities and emissions by fuel and vehicle type, vintage

and control technology. Based on analysis of those inputs, IIASA will make a decision about GAINS calculation methodology (fuel used, veh-km, removal efficiencies or abated emission factors). Activity data and emissions calculated by SEM will be provided to IIASA not only for national total, but also for urban traffic.

9. The models use different cost concepts (private vs. social discount rate, different treatment of taxes,

different price levels, different valuation of cost of travel time). Depending on the purpose of the study (simulation of market behavior, determination of costs to the society), these different cost concepts will also be used in the future. However, basic assumptions about costs will need to be harmonized and based on the same sources. These are:

- Price level (recommended: 2005 prices) - Vehicle investment costs - Fixed operation and maintenance costs (insurance, service, repairs) - Variable costs (fuel, and other consumables). - It is recommended that ICCT and LTU work together to derive the best data set on costs. Each

model will determine its needs for cost data depending on the scope covered and purpose of the study.

10. Proposed timing

15 April 2008 - note on PRIMES transport module ready and sent to the partners 30 April – data requests by individual teams sent to other partners 30 May – first version of inerfaces ready 30 July 2088 interfaces and test runs using dummy data completed. Full runs of the scenarios will be made in accordance with the general schedule of the EC4MACS project.

Janusz Cofala, June 06, 2008


Joint Meeting of EC4MACS and the National IAM Network (NIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

AGENDA April 3, 2008 9.00 Welcome 9.10 Overall workplan for EC4MACS 2008 (Markus Amann) 9.30 Forthcoming policy needs (Ger Klaassen)

Progress reports 2007 (Short description of tools, specific objectives within EC4MACS, what has been achieved in 2007, interactions with national experts, plans for the coming year):

9.50 IIASA – GAINS 10.10 Coffee break 10.20 NTUA - PRIMES 10.40 JRC-IPTS - POLES 11.00 LUATh - TREMOVE 11.20 UniBonn/EuroCare - CAPRI 11.40 JRC-IES – DNDC 12.00 IIASA – EU-FASOM 12.30 Lunch 13.50 CCE – Critical loads 14.10 Benefits assessment

In-depth discussion on specific focus areas: 14.30 Harmonized modelling of emissions from the transport sector (TREMOVE-PRIMES-GAINS) 15.20 Coffee break 15.40 Land use, biofuels, agricultural production, emissions from soils and agricultural

activities (CAPRI-PRIMES-DNDC-EUFASOM-GAINS) 16.30 Treatment of uncertainties (Proposal from CCE and general discussion) 17.40 Adjourn 18.00 Departure by bus to social event (Restaurant Sperl, Karolinengasse 13, 1040 Vienna)


EC4MACS - Annual Meeting 2008 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

AGENDA April 4, 2008 10:00 Welcome 10:05 Information on Monitoring Requirements Thomas Mayer – PARTICIP 10:20 Financial, Administrative & Contractual Issues Hans Benzinger – IIASA 10:40 Coffee Break 11:00 Activities for each Partner in the next 12 months Markus Amann - IIASA 11:45 Deliverables in the next 12 months Markus Amann - IIASA 12:30 LUNCH ___________________________________________________________________________ AFTER LUNCH: Split in two sub-groups Group 1: Bilateral in-depth discussion on Transport Wilfried Winniwarter - IIASA

Group 2: Bilateral in-depth discussion on Nitrogen, Agriculture and Landuse Leonidas Mantzos - NTUA Leonidas Ntziachristos– Lat/AUTH Janusz Cofala - IIASA


ANNEX 7

Minutes: Second Steering Committee Meeting14 May 2008


International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Tel: +43 2236 807 0Fax: +43 2236 71313

E-mail: [email protected]: www.iiasa.ac.at


EC4MACS – European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies

Minutes Second EC4MACS Steering Committee Meeting in Brussels

May 14, 2008

The second meeting of the EC4MACS Steering Committee was held at the premises of DG-ENV in Brussels on May 14, 2008. The meeting was attended by G. Klaassen (ENV), A. Zuber (ENV), A. Boenke (DG-ENTR), A. Labat (ECFIN), M.C. Mohora (TREN) (DG-ECFIN), F. Nogara (ENV), P. Russ (JRC), and M. Amann (IIASA). Apologies were received from C. Raes (DG-AGRI) and F. Raes (DG-JRC-IES). 1. Opening G. Klaassen chaired the meeting. In his welcome, he outlined the policy context in which EC4MACS should operate and stressed the importance of maintaining close interaction with users of the envisaged model analyses within the European Commission. He stressed the usefulness of the project for recent policy analyses for the Climate and Energy Package, for Carbon Capture and Storage and the National Emission Ceilings. In all these cases the model interfaces that have been improved under the EC4MACS project enabled a much faster turnaround time between scenario definition and delivery of model results (i.e., from energy scenarios to monetary benefits) enabling a larger number of alternative scenarios to be analyzed.


2. Progress made in the first year M. Amann introduced the objectives of the EC4MACS project, listed the project partners and explained the participating models and how they interact. He reviewed the overall five-years work plan of the project, and focused on the achievements made in the first year as well as on the plans for the second year. In particular, he invited guidance from the Steering Committee on additional aspects that could be addressed by the EC4MACS model system and could provide valuable insights to policy making at the European Commission. 3. Recommendations for future work It was recommended to include – to the extent that is not already done – recent scientific findings from ongoing or recently completed other scientific activities (e.g., COST633, NEEDS, the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution, etc.) into the EC4MACS model system. It was pointed out that various team members of EC4MACS participate in these activities, and that therefore this knowledge transfer is already taking place. The ensuing discussion listed a number of forthcoming issues for which the EC4MACS project could deliver relevant insights for policy making of the European Commission:

• The impacts of environmental regulations in the EU on the competitiveness of EU industry on the global market will gain growing attention. While the coverage of the EC4MACS project is restricted to the European Union, it was considered worthwhile to explore whether collaboration with economic models that address competition at the global scale could provide relevant information on this topic.

• The EC4MACS model framework should strengthen the analysis of coherence of EU policies in different fields. It was recommended that EC4MACS should address as a first issue the interplay between increased biofuel production, net greenhouse gas emissions, competition over land with other land use categories, impacts on agricultural prices, energy security, biodiversity, etc. Also for this topic, the spatial limitation of the EC4MACS to the territory of the European Union calls for connecting the analysis to ongoing global scale assessments.

• Future land use policies will also be an important factor determining the potential for increasing carbon sinks as an element of climate policies. The EC4MACS model framework contains comprehensive quantitative information that could – and should – be assessed for this question.

• Concerns about energy security emerged as a major policy issue, and EC4MACS should be in the position to provide a comprehensive assessment taking into account a wide range of related aspects.

• Progress in the modeling of the transport sector was welcome by all participants. It was suggested to employ the EC4MACS framework for a comprehensive analysis of alternative options to reduce CO2 emissions from cars.


• For air quality legislation, and in particular the envisaged review of the Clean Air For Europe program, compliance with air quality limit values at the local scale will remain an important topic. While the EC4MACS project does not specifically address urban air pollution, it was recommended to explore whether EC4MACS – with certain extensions – could provide relevant information on this topic. This would certainly include information on changes in background concentration levels resulting from Europe-wide climate, energy and air pollution policies. It was further recommended to explore whether the inclusion of an additional institution that could provide air quality modeling at the urban scale could provide a viable option under the current EC4MACS contractual arrangement, given that MET.NO has dropped out from the project consortium.

• It was stressed that adaptation to climate change will gain increasing importance in the future. While EC4MACS has not been designed to explicitly address this topic, it might provide relevant quantitative information as an input to other analyses that address adaption policies.

• The transparency of model methodologies and input data was raised as an important prerequisite for the usefulness of results obtained with the EC4MACS tools. It was recognized that EC4MACS aims at maximizing transparency of all models through multiple activities and pathways. However, in some cases confidentiality requirements (e.g., about individual industrial plants) impose limits to allowable transparency, and increased transparency requires acceptance and support of various Directorate Generals of the Commission. The participants of the Steering Group agreed to explore in which cases current restrictions could be removed, with the aim to increase acceptance of the model analyses by stakeholders.

• The Steering Group emphasized the importance of a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the various uncertainties that are associated with all model calculations. It was pointed out that, according to the work plan, uncertainty analysis will be the main topic of the fourth year of the EC4MACS project. While brainstorming on appropriate methodologies for uncertainty analysis has already begun among the project partners, members of the Steering Group were invited to provide examples of meaningful uncertainty analyses that have been conducted with other models.


ANNEX 8

Methodology Reports

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